Let's Rerank the New Year Six Teams

Submitted by MadMatt on

This is taking an ESPN web site article of the same name as a discussion starter.  Mr. Ted Miller ranked the teams as follows after the Bowls/Semifinals, but before the NC Game:

1) Alabama

2) Clemson

3) USC

4) Penn State

5) Ohio State

6) Washington

7) Oklahoma

8) Florida State

9) Michigan

10) Wisconsin

11) Auburn

12) Western Michigan

His reasoning is in the article.  This is my list with notes, but before I get to that, let me state a few general points I will follow.  The Bowl winners are generally going to be ahead of the losers (duh); not automatically.  I am not trying to list the teams that I think are most likely to win a hypothetical match-up next week, but credit the whole body of work over the season, with recent wins counting for more that early season wins.  Winning head to head in the early season matters, but is not the most important factor.  Having said that, a close "valiant" loss in the Bowl can be more of a credit than an oh-hum win.  Therefore, I would rank the six losses in the bowls (most creditable to ugliest) as: 1) Penn State, 1a) Washington, 3) Michigan, 4) Western Michigan, 5) Ohio State, and 6) Auburn.  Stirring all that secret together, here is my 1-12 ranking of the NY6 Teams:

1) Alabama - duh

2) Clemson - ditto, and the winner of the NC Game becomes 1 with the loser 2.  Even if the loser gets shellacked, both these teams have done enough to be ranked ahead of anyone else.

3) Oklahoma - that was an impressive win at an actual neutral site.  They are playing great late, won their Conference and won their Bowl.

4) USC - very close to OU; also playing great late, beat the two teams that played in their Conference Championship Game, and won their Bowl.  The tiny differences are no Conference Championship, no defense in the Bowl, and playing what amounts to a home game.  Good but less that Oklahoma.

5) Florida State - their Orange Bowl win was not as close as the final score indicated.  That is a talented team.

6) Penn State - hadn't lost since early October.  Beat Wisconsin for the B1G; torched USC's defense.  It pains us because Michigan shredded them early, but one more win (incl OSU) and a B1G Championship speaks for itself.

7) Washington - the defense was up to Alabama, but their inability to score after the first possession (a theme with Alabama's opponents this year) extinguished any doubt who would win.  As between them and Penn State, the lack of impressive wins, excepting Colorado, puts them just a hair behind.

8) Wisconsin - they had a workman like win in a consolation prize Bowl against a consolation prize level opponent.  They were the best of the B1G West; they played Mich, OSU and PSU close, but lost all three games.  Hey, 8 isn't bad, but their season was less than the 7 teams in front of them.

9) Ohio State - 11-1 and a legit playoff berth is pretty good.  However, the Clemson de-pantsing proved what we suspected all along.  This was a young, wonky offense bailed out by its precosius defense and other than the PSU game, they never faced their opponent's best shot, before Clemson.  Their early season win over OU in Norman was impressive, but still rather old news overshadowed by their late season games.

9a) Michigan - Losing a close Bowl game is not the worst thing in the world, but losing three of the last four left a mark.  I tied them with OSU because their late season head-to-head game in Columbus with home-cooking officiating was still a toss-up, and they did play a Bowl game in their opponent's backyard, without (arguably) their best player on each of offense, defense and special teams, and had a very late lead.  Also, that OSU loss against Clemson was really ugly, an ostrich sized egg with plenty of square corners.

11) Western Michigan - in a magical season, with their best team in a generation, they showed they belonged on the field with...a good but not great Wisconsin.

12) Auburn - blown out by a non-playoff team in the Bowl, and lost their last game of the regular season.  They were still a good team, but not better than the 11 in front of them.

Agree/disgree?  With either my criteria or their application?

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smwilliams

January 4th, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^

I'm going to go ahead and say that if a game was played on a neutral field between Ohio State and Michigan, I'd take Michigan considering how The Game went, how FSU-Clemson went, and how Clemson-Ohio St. went. 

My rankings would be...

1. Alabama

...

2. Clemson

3. USC

4. Oklahoma

5. Washington (no shame in getting blasted by the Tide)

6. Penn State

7. Florida State

8. Michigan

9. Ohio State

10. Wisconsin

11. Auburn

12. Western Michigan

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funkywolve

January 4th, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^

I think PSU was a much better team at the end of the year than they were in late September.  Not sure if I can say the same thing about UM this year...especially on the offensive side of the ball.

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TrueBlue2003

January 4th, 2017 at 10:59 PM ^

they gave up what, 35 to a bad Wisconsin offense and 52 (!!!) to USC?  We'd be favored against them and would beat them 7 of 10 times on a neutral field right now.

Remember that our offense played it's toughest three games by far in our losses, so our offense may not have improved by as much as theirs, if any, but they didn't get 39 points better relative to us.

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MGoPoints: 38075

funkywolve

January 4th, 2017 at 11:49 PM ^

I just said that PSU is a much better team now then they were in late September.  If that's solely because of the offense, that doesn't change they were a better team.  It'd be similiar to Michigan in 2015 where the offense was much better at the end of the year than they were at the beginning of the year. 

Niether the S&P rankings nor the FEI rankings would agree that the offense played, by far, their 3 toughest defenses in the 3 losses.

 

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MGoUberBlue

January 4th, 2017 at 3:32 PM ^

The score was close when we beat them, but the game was not close.

Let's get real........they had a tough time with Western Michigan.  Wolverines would take care of the Broncos easily.

 

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The Maizer

January 4th, 2017 at 3:32 PM ^

For FSU, you say it "was not as close as the final score indicated." That phrase is usually used when a blowout gets slightly closer because the winning team lets off the gas or puts in backups. Michigan was winning with under a minute to go; it was a close close game.

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USAFA007

January 4th, 2017 at 3:35 PM ^

I'll bite.

Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Oklahoma
FSU
USC
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
Auburn
Western Michigan

So, two clear leaders, four teams that showed well in bowls against top opponents, mash of four Big Ten teams, and lastly the two teams that don't belong in this conversation.



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jmblue

January 4th, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^

3) Oklahoma - that was an impressive win at an actual neutral site.
Not surprising, given that Auburn's QB broke his arm in the first half.

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jalenwestman

January 4th, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^

I'm looking for a Najee Harris thread.......This sure isn't it. I'll keep looking.

 

Bama

Clemson

USC

Washington

Penn State

Florida State

Michigan

OSU

OU

Whisky

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MGoPoints: 2480

UM Fan from Sydney

January 4th, 2017 at 3:40 PM ^

Correct. The final rankings mean absolutely nothing save who is number one. I'll casually watch the title game on Monday, but am already excited for the 2017 season (hey, it's ONLY 240 days from now).

"beat Florida"

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UM Fan from Sydney

January 4th, 2017 at 3:39 PM ^

What I would not do to get OSU and UM (assuming we have Peppers and Butt back) to play each other again...with unpaid <errrrrrrrrr> competent referees.

Joined: 09/17/2015

MGoPoints: 58076

victors2000

January 4th, 2017 at 3:52 PM ^

1. Clemson - They're going to beat Alabama

2. Alabama - No further drop; Clemson and the Tide are the cream of the crop for 2016.

3. Oklahoma - Didn't see the game but it sounds like a good win for them.

4. Wisconsin - They did what they had to do in the bowl they had to play

5. USC - Beat a good Penn State team but not by much and pretty much at home.

6. Washington - Not a bad effort against the Tide, given how good Alabama is.

7. Florida State - A quality win against Michigan

8. Penn State - Heartbreaking loss in the final moments to USC.

9. Michigan - Lost 4 games by a total of 5 points

10. Ohio State - Fuck Ohio State

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MGoPoints: 12912

rice4114

January 4th, 2017 at 3:55 PM ^

Please explain to me what PSU did to move up 5 spots above us? Im so confused. Did Penn St play lights out? Yes they did. How would Penn State do @ FSU and @ Osu or anyone outside Alabama for that matter. 

Put the teams with better records above us Im fine with that but if you think PSU, USC (all season not just the last 8 games) washington would fair better vs

 

Colorado 17pts

Penn state  30+ pts

Wisconsin

@ #2 OSU by a few inches (allegedly) 

@ FSU by a point

 

Take anyones top 5 games and compare to that. Clemson, OSu, Bama all are above us no doubt. Fsu got destroyed. Penn St got destroyed, USC got destroyed, Washington got destroyed, OSU got destroyed, Oklahoma got destroyed 2x.

 

Only 3 teams have played well ienough to win all their games.

Bama, Clemson, UM

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mgoblue0970

January 4th, 2017 at 9:10 PM ^

Michigan gets a first down in the final 90 seconds against Iowa and OSU and those games are "W"s for the good guys.  Since Michigan had their destiny in their own hands and couldn't muster a simple first down, no, they did not play well enough to win all their games.

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NittanyFan

January 4th, 2017 at 4:12 PM ^

They're going to get the benefit of the doubt from the voters.

Washington probably next at #4.  They did lose to USC.

It may not be well-liked among U-M fans, but a B1G Champion PSU with a win over a playoff team, while also faring well against USC, will probably lead all the B1G teams.  "49-10" won't matter too much, because there's NO way to preserve ALL head-to-head victories within the rankings when A beat B beat C who beat A.  I'd be very surprised if the B1G teams aren't ordered PSU, OSU, Michigan, Wisconsin.  I know OSU looked like a D-3 team in the playoffs but they did make the playoffs.

Florida State and Oklahoma have to slot in there somewhere.  FSU likely before Michigan because of the Orange Bowl.

If I had to guess the final AP Top 10:

1,2 Clemson/Alabama.  3, USC.  4, Washington.  5, Penn State.  6, Ohio State.  7, Florida State.  8, Michigan.  9, Oklahoma.  10. Wisconsin.   

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autodrip4-1968

January 4th, 2017 at 5:24 PM ^

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. Florida State

4. Oklahoma

5. Southern California

6. Michigan

7.Washington

8.Penn State

9. Wisconsin

10. Western Michigan

11. Ohio State

12. Auburn

My opinion Florida State defeated the toughest opponent of the bowl victors. That's why the three ranking.

 

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MGoPoints: 831

Durham Blue

January 4th, 2017 at 5:33 PM ^

I know Penn State is playing better than they were early in the season but I still don't see how they can be considered a better team than Michigan.  If we beat them by 7 points in our matchup then sure I could be swayed.  But that 39 point loss is awfully difficult to overlook.

 

And I would put FSU in the fourth spot.  Hell, I might even put them #3.  I honestly don't know if there's a team outside of Alabama or Clemson that could beat them right now.  Yes, we came close but that wasn't the case for 3 quarters.

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FrankMurphy

January 4th, 2017 at 5:43 PM ^

1) Alabama

2) Clemson

3) USC

4) Florida State

5) Washington

6) Oklahoma

7) Penn State

8) Michigan

9) Wisconsin

10) Ohio State

11) Auburn

12) Western Michigan

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MGoPoints: 31951

charblue.

January 4th, 2017 at 6:04 PM ^

whatever Monday night's outcome. No way should Oklahoma be third. No fucking way. This team lost at home to the Buckeyes by more than a TD, and I don't care when. They never played anyone better after that. The rest of their season was justification for the first month of the season. The same with Auburn. Oklahoma is Florida State without a defense.

Penn State proved that their running game and qb is legit if you have no one who can cover deep on their chuck and hope passing game. Barkley is dynamic as an rb and McSorley is the best qb in the Big Ten heading into next season. The Nittany Lions will be installed as favorites to win the East over the Buckeyes and Michigan regardless of each returning their starting qbs.

The problem for Penn State is they can't stop a nose bleed. The reason Michigan and Ohio State have constantly succeeded in the league is because they play defense and get to the qb, which Penn State does sporadically. In any case, Franklin has supplanted Dantonio as the coach with a team that now is in the class of of overachieving at the level at which it actually ought to be judged nationally.

If you lead a Rose Bowl game by two tds with less than a quarter left and still lose while giving up half a century of points, I don't give a shit what your mantra is. We Are Losers at that point.

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