John U. Bacon puts Harbaugh 80% staying, 20% NFL
https://twitter.com/Johnubacon/status/1346219493140410369
Since many have asked: Unclear exactly how much interest NFL teams have in him, but right now I'd say 80% chance Harbaugh will return to Michigan, and 20% to the NFL. Harbaugh is flying back to Michigan today. If it starts stretching out the odds shift gradually to the NFL.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:22 PM ^
Text above is what's in the original tweet, not my own commentary.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
Sorry John U., but your cover is blown.
January 4th, 2021 at 6:44 PM ^
JUB is talking out of his ass ... good lord I wish I could make a living publishing SWAGs!
January 4th, 2021 at 8:43 PM ^
Unclear how this team gets better next year with 20% of Harbaugh coaching in the NFL...
January 5th, 2021 at 11:27 AM ^
Maybe the bad 20% goes to the NFL and we get the good 80%
January 4th, 2021 at 5:27 PM ^
This just means he is entertaining options and if the right one comes, he will take it. Other than that, % don’t really mean anything because Bacon is not so plugged in that he knows all the details and all opportunities.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:37 PM ^
He's just.now, today coming back?
Hey Jim, take your fucking time, no hurry or anything. It's not like you have a program to run.
This whole thing is bullshit and the way it's being handled is awful.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
Yeah this really is bad. Also, if his heart is not 100% into coaching his alma mater then he should go. Having a 80% interested Harbaugh is probably not going to go too well.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:59 PM ^
Maybe, maybe not.
Since the OSU game in 16 I'd argue we've only had 50% of the original factory Harbaugh so an 80% version sounds pretty good to me.
January 4th, 2021 at 6:03 PM ^
From what I can tell he got a software update and someone turned him off while it was installing.
January 4th, 2021 at 6:40 PM ^
Now we get 80% of the 50% Harbaugh. It is a decline in decline but still on the decline.
January 4th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
I mean, if only there were some way for JH to interview potential coordinators and assistants, and talk to recruits when he's not in Ann Arbor. Not to mention perhaps interviewing a certain OC who's currently coaching for a team on the west coast while JH is on the same coast.
January 4th, 2021 at 8:40 PM ^
This is such a joke. Harbaugh seems about as excited coaching at Michigan as NFL teams are to hire him.
Maybe he'll get an interview from the jets.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
I like John but hate it when anyone puts percentages on something like this. Just say you feel stronger one way or the other. And in John’s defense it didn’t sound like anyone is plugged in this time around.
January 4th, 2021 at 6:32 PM ^
Using percentages is a generalization of feeling strongly one way or the other.
80/20 - feels strongly for staying but definitely non-zero chance of leaving
50/50 - doesn't feel strongly one way or the other
20/80 - feels strongly for leaving but definitely non-zero chance of staying
And you can extrapolate everything else in between.
Credentials: math degree from UM ;)
January 4th, 2021 at 8:56 PM ^
I'm sure John means well--the vibe is always very schoolboy earnest--but I don't find this hugely helpful. . . to just about anyone, though it keeps people checking John's twitter posts. Sounds like he asked somebody close to the action and was told that Jim was examining available offers, leaning to coming back.
But they made a mistake suggesting answers were coming today, and the idea of an underperforming Harbaugh just lazily sifting the sands--and certainly not deeply committed to M--ain't gonna sit well with most folks.
January 4th, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
It allows for a Bayesian approach as new info comes in. As he gets more information he can use it to shift the percentages
January 4th, 2021 at 5:28 PM ^
This has become a clown show.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
Become a clown show? Did you watch this season at all or the last 2 OSU games? It’s been a clown show for awhile.
January 4th, 2021 at 6:02 PM ^
I’m pretty sure the entire post was in relation to the ongoing Harbaugh staying/going saga that has no end in sight or concrete information. I’m fairly certain both myself and the other posters on this site have made our thoughts on the season very clear multiple times.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:28 PM ^
I'm calling fake news!
January 4th, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
Well awesome. NFL doesn’t want him either so he says guess I’ll sign my contract and see what happens. It’s obvious he played both sides - he’s talked to coordinators/coaches just in case he does come back and then he can say “what’s your deal... this was always the plan and I needed time to land these coaches.”
If true, total crock and absolutely no good reasons to have waited so long. Warde will have some explaining to do as he lost his game of buyout chicken.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
I'm going to assume if nothing is said by Tuesday, he is gone. If he stays,I can't wait for the spin that he always wanted to coach at Michigan.
Turning a one day story into a month+ long story.
January 4th, 2021 at 8:03 PM ^
+1 for modifying a Bacon favorite quote.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
He gone
January 4th, 2021 at 5:36 PM ^
If only true
January 4th, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
Don’t you dare give me hope.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
To be replaced by Scot Loeffler
January 4th, 2021 at 6:03 PM ^
Fred Jackson or Mike Debord. Book it.
January 4th, 2021 at 8:37 PM ^
F it. I’d ride with Freddy J
January 4th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
You are killing me. Not to mention I was hoping Scot was the real deal while popular under Carr but the rotation since then has not been kind. (3-14 for the last two years. Wow, have my hopes been dashed. Well not dashed as it has been a slow and continual downward trend.)
January 4th, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
I can hardly wait to hear about what the heck the process actually was here.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
We all know what’s going on. It’ll be entertaining to hear what bullshit lie we’ll all be fed.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^
John. Or is it Jumbo? It is being handled exactly the right way.
January 4th, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
Bacon will write a 400 page book on it. 399 of them will be blank.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
Wasn't the "official" announcement of the extension to occur today?
January 4th, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^
Exactly. So was the meeting with his staff. In short, none of these insiders know what the hell is going on.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
Yep, and this place loses their minds over each and every speculative tweet. I mean, I want this to be over too, but it doesn't matter if it happens today or by the end of the week. If it keeps dragging on, then something is brewing, but every report has said he is on vacation. He is back today. I'd bet he signs within a day or two. JH doesn't do things to appease anyone. He gives no shits what people think. I'm not saying I agree with this approach in this situation, but this is on brand for JH and I don't understand why everyone is freaking out.
January 4th, 2021 at 6:10 PM ^
I have been on the fence and see both positives and negatives of Harbaugh leaving. After the last month, he needs to go. He’s an odd duck and whether he means to do it or not, everything needs to be about him and on his terms. He’s not bigger than the University or the football program, and we need someone that is part of the team, that can lead the team, that can inspire the team and be a good representative of the team. Harbaugh won’t do an on field interview at halftime or at the end of the game, he won’t answer questions in a meaningful way at his designated press conferences, and he isn’t transparent about anything. This would all seem great if we were winning big and that this was giving us a strategic advantage, but it’s just weird at this point. My dream coach is Chris Peterson, but that’s not likely to happen. I think Campbell could be the right choice and I would be on board for him. Iowa State is competitive with Oklahoma and Texas, and it's not just a one season mirage due to COVID weirdness. He’s done it multiple seasons now. He’s a legit good coach and I’d love to see what he can do with Michigan’s 3 and 4 star players, rather than a majority 2 star players at ISU. If he can erase the entitlement in the program and get even a small chip on people’s shoulders, it will go a long way. The Revenge Tour was the closest thing I’ve seen to Michigan having a meanness and edge in a long time, but it wasn’t sustained.
January 4th, 2021 at 7:26 PM ^
I'd love Peterson here too. He won at two schools and won a PAC12 title and his team played a respectable 24-7 loss to #1 Bama. Rang up 70 on Hoke's Oregon D in Eugene.
Not sure why he left - didn't seem to be the fans were mad at him (Stress?).
I figured JH was here for many more years as our very own John Cooper, who lasted 13 at OSU.
The kicker for me this season was the MSU loss where we made Rocky look like 1984 Dan Marino, only to have him look terrible at Iowa and end up in the transfer portal.
The lackluster showing vs. UW made me willing to donate what few dollars I could to his buyout fund.
If can get Campbell here, he may be able to pull in some help from the transfer portal and bring in a Mike Danno type plus some LBs.
January 4th, 2021 at 8:06 PM ^
Very well said.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^
Personally I hope he leaves as both him and the program need a reset. I don't have faith in 2018-2020 Harbaugh making personnel decisions that can get Michigan over the hump.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^
My question: whether warde forced this move to avoid the buyout and reduce his pay, or harbaugh has genuine interest in the nfl, is the best position for the program?
time will tell...maybe the second option for michigan isn’t that strong.
might have to write another book
January 4th, 2021 at 5:35 PM ^
Even with the financial hit we've taken from Covid, I don't see Michigan athletics being so worried about money that the AD would prioritize it over making a personnel move (that he would otherwise make). There are enough donors that would step up to the plate if really necessary.
This is just very weird.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:41 PM ^
If he is leaving (or was told to find a new job), I think it’s more about saving face or being considerate (I.e., find another job cause we will be moving in a different direction) for one of your own more than a $10M number.
January 4th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^
If we told him he's fired, I can't imagine it wouldn't have leaked. Our athletic department has never been good about keeping things hush-hush.
January 4th, 2021 at 7:27 PM ^
No doubt. If Harbaugh had been told he was fired, he would have told his assistants and they would probably have immediately started looking for a new job. No way that would have stayed quiet.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^
Does Bacon have data to support his 80%-20% numbers?
January 4th, 2021 at 5:35 PM ^
we need to bring in Nate Silver's model.
January 4th, 2021 at 5:48 PM ^
Nope but he's recommending a grain of salt to go with them:
