ESPN post-NSD Way-Too-Early Top 25
It feels like a lifetime away but here is ESPN's take on the Top 25 post-NSD yesterday. They did a 'Way Too Early' Top 25 right after the bowls so they basically just updated that based on on recruiting classes panned out.
Obviously Alabama is #1 because why not. I didn't realize that they play FSU (#2 on list) the first game of the year in 2017. Note that Florida (M's first opponent in 2017) does not make the list.
In terms of the Big Ten:
Team (Way-Too-Early #1, Way-Too-Early post-NSD)
OSU (#6, #4)
PSU ((#4, #5)
Wisky (#9, #12)
M (#12, #14)
MSU (NR, NR)*
*Character is not quantifiable thus ESPN was not able to fully get their minds around how good State is going to be next year.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^
On another note, Ala - fucking - bama. They will play anyone. I guess getting the number 1 recruiting class 6 out of 7 years in a row breeds an ungodly amount of confidence.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:47 AM ^
Kind of strange that OSU would not be ranked in the top 2, considering they still went 11-1 in the regular season last year and were supposedly the youngest team ever.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:10 AM ^
FSU returns 60% of their offensive production and 80% of their defensive production.
That offense lost is Dalvin Cook. They just signed 2 of the top 7 RBs in the 2017 class including to me what looked like the next bad ass in Cam Akers. AKA the #2 player in America in the 17 class.
Their QB needs to make a bump - outside of that they could be scary good. They did lose the 1 great DL but just about everything else is back.
OSU's # by comparisons are 68%/57% - they lost their entire defensive backfield. Again in the Big 10 that's not a big deal like it would be in the Big 12 or Pac 12, as Big 10 Qbs generally are horrible but it will hopefully mean something vs PSU and UM at least.
Being #4 assumes 1 loss. I think that's pretty respectful when JT Barrett is your QB.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
Florida is way too high!
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
I believe in the "returning production" thread PSU was #1 in the Big 10 and have the best back in the conference, and a legit QB ... not that he is the greatest but very few Big 10 teams have a guy who can throw a 30 yd out pattern nowadays. I am noit familiar with their defense as much but they do have a very astute DC - yes UM had their way with them last year and USC has the potential Heisman winner at QB so stuff happens.
I think everyone here remembers the team that walked in early in the season, not accounting for the idea they had a new OC and they were young - teams improve. Teams in a system, esp offensively, should improve substantially in year 2 - esp when you return most of the guys back. Franklin has 2 good coordinators which is what he needs as he is not an X and O guy but a rah rah guy - that was the Brady Hoke plan, be a great recruiter and hire 2 competent men to run both sides of your team - Hoke only did that with 1 guy. I thought a year ago Franklin would be fired in 12 months as he would continue banging his head in the wall with the old OC and not adjust - kudos to him for not Hoking it.
They have Pitt at home sandwiched by powerhouses Akron and GA state. They do have a # of games they can slip up on the road: @Iowa, @NW, @OSU, @MSU, @MD. It strikes me as a team that will be better than this year but with a tougher schedule ... and could have the same record or 1 more loss. 10-2 or 9-3 seems likely to me so no to #4 or #5 but yes to top 10.
UM and Neb are their 2 huge home games....and surely will be a night game... going to be a tough venue for a very young team and program that has rarely won big road games the past decade.
UM is fairly placed; I expect nearly every national media site who really looks at the production lost and just doesn't say "Harbaugh" to have them at 9-3. Which is about where a 12th to 14th ranked team finishes pre bowl.
It's a damn shame Bama and MSU didn't keep their 2 game series they had scheduled for 2016 and 2017. Bama could have had a cupcake instead of FSU. Can't wait for that game.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
PSU's profile in 2017 is similar to ours in 2016: Surprisingly good season, a couple of players that are really impressive (Barkley for them, Peppers and Lewis for us), tons of talent coming back. We're talking about a team that won a strong Big Ten. Yeah, we handled them at home, but we were a really good team last season. They're definitely a top ten team to begin the season and top five isn't ridiculous at all.
Can we beat them on the road? Maybe. I really have no idea what Michigan is going to look like next year, we just have too many young guys filling roles that they've never filled before. And Michigan hasn't won a big game on the road in a long time (MSU was a "big game" to us, but beating a team that finishes 3-9 isn't that big of a deal in the larger scheme of things).
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:23 AM ^
FWIW I agree about being nervous about the road game at Penn. St. Road performance being somewhere between awful and LOL is a problem Michigan is going to have to solve to move the program forward and if we're talking "Feels" metrics is the thing I still have the most skepticism about with the Harbaugh regime.
February 2nd, 2017 at 2:01 PM ^
hard to believe you have this much of a "woody" for PSU. I predict Penn State won't sniff another B1G title while Franklin is the head coach. Why because he's a horrendous game day coach.
IMO - yeah we were a really good team that underachieved last year. I also think that we are way overdue to win the B1G championshp ... and that will happen, multiple times before PSU wins another.
Go Blue!
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:59 AM ^
I hope PSU loses every game. I think they're fraudulent and benefitted by playing OSU at home in crappy weather and OSU's special teams failing them. And it didn't hurt that Wisconsin has no QB.
I hope PSU gives Franklin a Ferentz-like contract extension and they're stuck with that clown for the next 10 years.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
I'm super excited for that PSU game. Their offense was mostly arm punts to godwin who is gone now and Franklin isn't actually a good coach, though Moorhead seems like he is and would like to see someone higher him away.
Obviously Barkley is a beast but that Oline was still getting shredded all year. Think it will be a great chance to get a win that looks way better than it should.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^
With an entirely unproven secondary, I wouldn't be super excited about facing an arm punt offense at night on the road.
February 2nd, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^
who throws 50-50 balls" talk ......
He did only throw 5 Interceptions for the entirety of the 13-game regular season. His regular season-long interception rate (Interceptions thrown per pass thrown) was --- considerably --- the lowest of any B1G quarterback.
Now, he did throw 3 picks in the Rose Bowl. And he did have a propencity throw interceptions at VERY critical times. The pick at the end of the Pittsburgh game and at the end of the Rose Bowl were poor decisions and strongly impacted the final score of them. The decision making does need to improve a bit. But the season-long #s do run a bit counter to the "arm punt 50/50" chatter.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:16 AM ^
Where is the 2023 bracketology?
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^
If O$U can have one of the yougest teams, and still make the CFP, I have all confidence in the world that our coaching staff can coach up our ''youngsters'' to make a deep run next season. I am not concerned one bit. If this was a Hoke led team - then yea - I'd be scared AF.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:06 PM ^
This is exactly what I thought for this coming season and last season toward the end. People were freaking out when we lost Speight for a game and possibly beyond. I was thinking (prior to the game that Wilton missed), "OSU won the title with their third string QB, so why can't Michigan at least get to the playoff without Wilton?" Of course, then we saw how bad the Indiana game was and I changed my tune, but still, if one elite team can do it, another elite team can, too. We're now at the point that the players know Harbaugh and his system. Most of the team are his guys and we have an elite staff. Michigan will be fine. Plus we have a starting QB returning, which is huge.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:10 PM ^
Penn States come back last year after we trucked them...but IMO they are too high. I think they lose more than 2 next year. They almost remind me of Michigan in our Sugar Bowl year under Hoke...umm a lot of luck.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^
Franklin beat a good OSU team. Something Hoke never did. That already tells me he's a better coach than Hoke.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:57 PM ^
February 2nd, 2017 at 1:47 PM ^
of the flukiest plays of the year. They needed a gift from above to win that game..they got it...good for them. But I am so far from being sold on Penn State.
February 2nd, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^
Still doesn't change the scoreboard. They won. No one on this board would give two shits if we played a bad game against OSU but still managed to beat them on a fluke play. Winning is winning.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:42 PM ^
Just goes to show the amount of trust placed in Harbaugh by the pollsters when he loses essentially his entire starting lineup and still almost cracks the top ten. There's definitely going to be some growing pains next year, but this is going to be an extremely well-seasoned team when it's rolling into November. We'll have a pretty good idea of where we're at right out of the gate with playing Florida.
OSU will of course get the benefit of the doubt every year because of Meyer, and that's fine. Especially with the insanely loaded class they have coming in.
PSU will be intriguing next year. Lotttt of expectations placed on them with a lot of guys coming back, and minus having to play us and OSU, they have a pretty easy schedule. But they have us, then OSU, then MSU, so if MSU gets back to being respectable, they could easily walk out of that stretch being 0-3. Right now, I see them losing 1-2 games, with that combo buried somewhere between us and OSU.
February 2nd, 2017 at 1:10 PM ^
Penn State's schedule is back-loaded. I think they beat Pitt fairly easily at Happy Valley, and the away game at Kinnick is always tough, but Iowa will be starting a new QB, Desmond King has moved on to the NFL, and other than Wadley (if he comes back) they just don't have much offensive talent, so how do they score points? Given that, Penn State may be undefeated when we arrive on October 21. But IF we can beat Florida, we could also be undefeated.
Our defense is the key to defeating Penn State, as we saw in Ann Arbor...when McSorley is under extreme pressure, PSU's offense crumbles. And their receiver corps won't be as good as it was last year, allowing our D to focus more on containing Barkley. So our D needs to be playing well meaning attacking hard without giving up more than a handful of big plays.
February 2nd, 2017 at 2:02 PM ^
JUST WIN THE GAME!
February 2nd, 2017 at 2:23 PM ^
There is a lot of talk about PSU. Before I do, I just want to say: Beat Florida! Nothing will make me happier than beating UF three times in a row, but they are out against us since we embarassed them. Beating UF will also give us a lot of momentum early on in the season and will also give players a big reason to give it their all this off season (not that they wouldn't but you know, extra motivation).
Lets beat UF with our version of the Fun and Gun.
PSU. They are out for blood. I don't think Franklyn has forgotten how Harbaugh embarassed him by running the same play 8 (eight) consecutive times. In addition, Happy Valley is going to be rocking so I hope this is NOT a night time game but I am pretty sure that it will be. We haven't faired well at night on the road.
Our OL is interesting but I hope that we can make strides with our new coach from Indiana.
February 2nd, 2017 at 2:57 PM ^
on offense and defense to still be sniffing around the Top 15 isn't a bad sign...we're a class or 2 away from being on automatic reload status
February 2nd, 2017 at 3:09 PM ^
February 2nd, 2017 at 4:43 PM ^
February 2nd, 2017 at 9:49 PM ^