Did some research on the top players recruited by Harbaugh and how they panned out
Today while at work, I was bored and decided to check out the status of each of the Harbaugh's top recruits. I chose the top 32 recruits and wanted to see what the rate was between: on team / transfer/ pro
I'm not exactly sure what to infer from this because I haven't compared it with other teams, but it really seems that we have high miss rate for our highly rated recruits.
Here is the data. What does everyone think?
January 26th, 2021 at 11:51 PM ^
Great work!
How do I get ahold of your company to recommend you for a hefty raise?
January 27th, 2021 at 12:03 AM ^
Hilarious
January 27th, 2021 at 9:31 AM ^
Incomplete work regarding exit circumstances and portal transfers. Raise therefore denied. Why? Portal transfer data, and early NFL entry should have included UM graduation status.
Multiple transfers and early NFL exits did so after graduating UM, diploma in hand. For graduate transfers, scholarship terms were completed upon graduating. Graduation transfers depict a very different scenario than transfers due to athletic or academic discontent.
Post graduation early NFL exits are easy to explain. Most people go for the best paying job they can find upon graduating.
No need to paint coach Harbaugh as derelict for helping student athletes graduate. Some might even view graduation as being as an unheralded element of his success. Those are the people that deserve a raise. Additional kudos for Harbaugh for preparing and helping his athletes jump to the NFL.
January 26th, 2021 at 11:51 PM ^
Nice work. Thx
worth adding Rashan Gary I think....
January 26th, 2021 at 11:56 PM ^
That was a gross omission on my part and I went back and checked, and it was the only one I missed. I was scrolled down too far on the page and missed the top ranked recruit for UM all time.
Add 1 "Pro" to that and make it 33 players total.
Oops.
January 27th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
Edit: Did not realize Peppers was so long ago.
January 26th, 2021 at 11:53 PM ^
Rashan Gary not on the list?
January 26th, 2021 at 11:56 PM ^
Noted above, but ya...my only miss on the list was that one. Big miss. Everything else stands though!
January 26th, 2021 at 11:54 PM ^
Since I can't edit OP:
A few issues with the above data, spelling notwithstanding.
Left off rashan gary. Oops
typed Kareen Hunt instead of Walker. Oops.
I also decided to be subjective and rate them on how they performed while at Michigan. Keep in mind, anyone that transferred at all, I graded an F. So even if they played at a B level (Aubrey) while here, if he transferred, I graded an F.
Anyone that was a 2020 player that didn't play much or at all I gave a C.
Early impact players that are at a level that exceeds or performs to expectations (Dax Hill) gets an A, etc.
Again, I understand this is SUPER subjective. That's why I added it down here.
January 27th, 2021 at 4:42 AM ^
That is A LOT of transfers. Seemed like a lot and now below it looks like confirmation compared to OSU and Clemson.
January 27th, 2021 at 8:39 AM ^
What shows you that Dax Hill has met/exceeded expectations? Not trying to shit on the guy obviously, but coming in I was hoping for more of an instant impact player with his caliber of athleticism. I see him being eerily close to a DPJ career here so far; oozing potential, but light on the actual stats...I know not having a position coach this year couldn’t have helped his development, but was Brown’s defense not right for his style and he’ll blow up this year? Maybe I just had too high of expectations from a high 5-star recruit...Maybe 80ish tackles, 2 FR, 2 int’s in 1.5 years isn’t all that bad either...
January 27th, 2021 at 9:01 AM ^
This is why OP explained his scoring and the reasoning behind it - it is too SUBJECTIVE for any definitive accounting. You have very good, and valid, questions. But this kind of charting cannot be used to distinguish individual players.
It does, however, give a fairly good accounting of the overall state of the program. And, to me, it doesn't look like Michigan has been getting a very good return from it's investments. And that has to fall on the coaches, right?
January 27th, 2021 at 9:09 AM ^
That chart compared to OSU's and Clemson's (below) just makes me sad. I would love for someone in the know to explain why this is happening with out using the word "bagman". I mean, I am sure we all have our opinions about it and I know it would vary from player to player but I would love to know the common theme.
January 26th, 2021 at 11:58 PM ^
Nice work. Kareem Walker, Kareem Hunt played at Toledo, Hunt's off the field issues were pretty awful though.
January 27th, 2021 at 12:01 AM ^
haha, good catch. Not sure why i typed Hunt other than he won me a lot of money a few weeks back on fanduel for a multi-touchdown scorer.
January 26th, 2021 at 11:59 PM ^
Hard to blame Kareem Hunt for not playing at Michigan once he was out of eligibility at Toledo.
January 27th, 2021 at 12:01 AM ^
You guys are brutal lol.
January 27th, 2021 at 12:05 AM ^
Would be interesting to see for Saban, Urban, Dabo, etc. for comparison purposes.
I'm not suggesting OP do that; he's done more than enough!
January 27th, 2021 at 12:08 AM ^
I’m not sure but I think all three have more conference championships and CFP appearances than Harbaugh. That’s without doing any research.
January 27th, 2021 at 4:17 AM ^
So I decided to compare Clemson and Ohio State during that same time frame (2016-2020) and this is what I came up with.
January 27th, 2021 at 8:10 AM ^
So I'd venture a not so wild guess that that top 32 at OSU and Clemson were, on average, more highly rated than the top 32 at Michigan. I'd also speculate that the more highly rated a player, the more likely there are to see early/significant playing time and thus are more likely to stay. So, i wonder if this data shows anything behind the fact that OSU and Clemson have recruited at a higher level?
January 27th, 2021 at 8:20 AM ^
That 2017 recruiting class HURTS, especially from a depth standpoint.
People always mention the transfers/attrition etc. While they hurt, I believe it happens much more often then we think. My theory when it comes to the top football factories is that you will see more kids stay because 1. they know they are in the mix for a championship every single year 2. these are true football factories 3. every year its "next man up".
January 27th, 2021 at 12:05 AM ^
It's crazy how terrible that 2017 recruiting class ended up. By all accounts it should have been the class leading Michigan into the next tier of on field success. Hoping that the 2019, 2020, and 2021 recruits are ready to contribute early and that they are given the opportunities to do so under the new coaches.
January 27th, 2021 at 12:31 AM ^
I can’t agree with your assessment of Peters. He was better than O’Korn, but that’s it.
January 27th, 2021 at 12:46 AM ^
I thought he was the best QB on that roster.
January 27th, 2021 at 12:41 AM ^
Diary worthy.
January 27th, 2021 at 8:20 AM ^
It is the start of a good diary, but there would have to be comparative stats for other programs and players of the same level.
January 27th, 2021 at 2:38 AM ^
2017 turned out to be the biggest abortion wrapped in a dirty old diaper that was tossed in a dumpster fire of a class that I can remember. The shortcomings of that class alone have reverberated through the team on a seismic level.
January 27th, 2021 at 5:28 AM ^
And I think it's even a little worse than that... McGrone, Collins, Thomas all departing early for various reasons.
Add in the fact that a handful of others haven't really panned out yet as you noted (Filiaga, Smith, Hinton, etc.) and it really paints a bleak picture. Oof.
January 27th, 2021 at 8:36 AM ^
I'm not sure your suggestion of "reasons" is accurate. Collins said he intended to come back and then went back and forth as the Big Ten dicked everyone around; he seemed committed to Harbaugh and the team until Covid hit. Thomas was recently diagnosed with Colitis and did not want to risk his long term health, or worse, on a season that seemed tenuous as best. McGrone seems like someone who believes he is ready for the NFL. And considering the faceplant the defense suffered this year maybe he wanted to get out with some excellent tape still in hand.
And Hinton and Smith are second year defensive tackles. Arguably the most difficult position to excel at early. I believe both will round into excellent players. This seems like piling on.
January 27th, 2021 at 6:05 AM ^
"I'm not exactly sure what to infer from this because I haven't compared it with other teams, but it really seems that we have high miss rate for our highly rated recruits."
How we're doing compared to other programs might really be the point of such an exercise. But you haven't gone the last, large, painstaking step. So your fuzzy "seems like" just comes off as one more attempt to castigate the program. Surrounded by some graphs and charts.
I like your notes on the players, though.
January 27th, 2021 at 7:53 AM ^
The only other big program I follow is UCLA which has a similarly high washout rate, which has driven fans of that program completely batshit(never mind that the one time the program was good recently it was fueled by a group of highly rated recruits with a relatively high hit rate...)
The issue is both UCLA and Michigan have reputations for not doing as much as they should with highly ranked classes(Texas seems to have this issue as well). The only parallel I can draw between the three programs is their high academic ratings, do with that what you will.
January 27th, 2021 at 9:25 AM ^
Yet we keep hearing that there are lots of M players in this or that Super Bowl, playoff game, etc. That's why it seems critical to actually know. I take it for granted that Michigan fans like me are going to feel more pain when Michigan players don't succeed, but that doesn't mean they're failing at a higher rate than other school's players. Tough to develop criteria to evaluate, I'd be the first to admit, but probably others have already attempted it by comparing top ten programs, player ratings, etc.
January 27th, 2021 at 6:39 AM ^
Why do people think that Lavert Hill left early? OP thinks that, and there were several people in the McGrone discussions who thought that. He played all four years.
January 27th, 2021 at 7:01 AM ^
Guess I didn’t remember correctly, or more plausibly, we’ve swapped timelines and we’re experiencing the Mandela Effect. I came from the timeline where Vert left early.
January 27th, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
Ha. Great response. And didn’t mean to be negative on your post overall. I just very clearly remember it being good news when we found out he was returning (unlike David Long). Unfortunately, he arguably hurt his draft stock by doing so.
January 27th, 2021 at 9:08 AM ^
Did he Redshirt as a freshman? I don't remember, and don't feel like looking it up. If he did, then he could have stayed for a 5th year. But as a highly regarded NFL draft prospect, why would he?
January 27th, 2021 at 6:41 AM ^
It’s interesting. Might I suggest an additional status that could realize some benefit — those that left early for the NFL.
Something I hear quite a bit (albeit anecdotal) is how many players from other top-tier programs stick around for additional years. Aiden Hutchinson is one of the few that come to mind (recency bias) that could have gone pro, but decided to stay for the extra year of eligibility.
January 27th, 2021 at 7:28 AM ^
I will say, seeing it laid out and subdivided like this, I kind of winced when thinking of these last several seasons from a player retention standpoint. I figured it was not good, but then I looked at Clemson and....well, I would enjoy a cultural analysis of programs next, let me put it this way.
January 27th, 2021 at 7:32 AM ^
Been saying that for years. It doesn't help that 2017 was JH's highest ranked class and pretty much everyone left from that class. Either JHs staff can't ID talent, can't develop talent, or simply rub kids the wrong way. I think JH could use some people development skills and learn to be more supportive. It might help to not play so many favorites. I've also kind of had the impression that the top 100 kids we get are not like the top 100 kids Clemson, Bama, and OSU get. We seem to get a lot of overrated guys that may be passed on by other schools like Peter's, Walker, Anthony, Villain, Crawford, etc. They aren't bad players, but they also aren't Henne, Higdon, Bush, Winovich, and Collins either.
January 27th, 2021 at 8:16 AM ^
Hard to use this one data point without peer comparison to say it whether or not it supports the notion that JH and staff cannot id, develop or keep talent. It could be this is more reflective of how things are now thrown on top of an outlier bad 2017.
January 27th, 2021 at 8:29 AM ^
Hard to use this one data point
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is 32 data points, not one. Still a small sample size, but 32x larger than you seem to be suggesting. Of course a comparison would help, but the OP has provided some in the comments which indicate OSU & Clemson are doing significantly better. Clemson & OSU are only two points of comparison and it's probably no surprise they are doing better, so teams like PSU, Wiscy, TAMU, Florida, etc. are probably better comparisons. But, I think it's probably enough to draw some conclusions. Conclusions would still be a hypothesis based on data rather than a fact.
January 27th, 2021 at 9:57 AM ^
Georgia's number likely look worse than Michigan's. They have recruited better since Harbaugh got here, and seen as many or more busts/transfers.
January 27th, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
Data point being what happened at one school as the conclusion that are being suggested related to whether there is a systemic issue at Michigan. It would be 32 data points if we wanted to analyze at the individual player level.
As an aside if Michigan is 32 data points then why refer to OSU and Clemson as one point of comparison. That seems inconsistent on your part. If Michigan provides 32 data points, then OSU and Clemson would each provide 32 points of comparison.
January 27th, 2021 at 7:44 AM ^
It’s an interesting list and disappointing to see how top recruits panned out on average at Michigan.
While it does speak to something, I am honestly not sure what, all I ask is that we not pull a UCLA fan and be driven nuts by this washout rate and declare that recruiting rankings are completely meaningless and that Harbaugh should only recruit the non-diva three stars who fit the program and are willing to work hard and are hungry due to being disrespected by the services, etc etc.
January 27th, 2021 at 8:24 AM ^
That sound like Wisconsin football, 3 stars who work hard and stay with the program for 4 or 5 years.
January 27th, 2021 at 9:28 AM ^
This is actually really cool to look at.
January 27th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
I could have told you this with zero work.
January 27th, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
I think it's possible to look at much of the attrition and lack of development and lay it at the feet of Don Brown. He was notorious for not playing young talent, and it seems to me that Mattison's departure was more of an issue between Mattison and Brown than it was an issue between Mattison and Harbaugh. Harbaugh may have even realized this but didn't feel he could do anything about it because the results were there for the first three years, and largely there the fourth year. But the attrition and lack of development finally caught up with Brown this year.
When it come to problems on the offensive side we have to look at Harbaugh for sure, but most of the transfers on that side had to do with guys getting passed by better, younger talent. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. The biggest issue that has crippled the offense has been average to poor offensive line play, and the lack of good QB play. The latter, though, is very much tied to the former. The chaos with the O-line came from Harbaugh's loyalty to Drevno whom he stuck with for too long. But the Warriner hire seemed to help that, and hopefully Moore will continue to improve what is happening there.
All of which is to say, if Michigan has been whiffing at a higher rate than other programs with it's top talent, it doesn't really all lie at Harbaugh's feet. And to the extent it does, he's repeatedly taken steps to try and fix it. Some of those moves have worked, some haven't, and some it's too early to tell, but seeing as only a couple of programs who recruit at Michigan's level or higher have really figured out how to do it better, I'm remaining hopeful this will improve, and not give in to the idea that Harbaugh is hapless and incompetent.