Bill Connelly: "Michigan State was lucky as hell...they were lucky as hell last night"
The quote is from Bill C's podcast Podcast Ain't Played Nobody about MSU's win Saturday against PSU.
The quote is mostly related to MSU's turnover luck. Michigan State fumbled the ball 4 times and recovered them all. PSU had a potential pick on the game just dropped by a CB. According to Bill, when taking into account the amount of fumbles and batted balls PSU's defense had, MSU was expected to turn the ball over 5.5 times against PSU. They turned it over once. Each turnover is worth around 5 points, so turnover luck gained MSU around 20-21 points.
The following link is a Bill C post detailing a bunch of advanced stats box score numbers on all the games from this weekend (link). Some notables from the link:
- Another Bill C quote on MSU: "the Spartans enjoyed about a 20- to 21-point boost thanks to turnovers luck... I swear, that happens every single time Sparty plays PSU, Michigan, or Ohio State, doesn’t it..."
- MSU's post game win expectancy was 26%.
- OSU's post game win expectancy was 66%.
- Michigan's post game win expectancy was 86%.
- Wisconsin had one of the best 5 points per scoring opportunity margins this week. Basically this means advanced numbers say Michigan should have scored more based on the amount of scoring opportunities we had but we didn't because we failed to finish drives. So not only were we not lucky, based on the numbers this game should have been an even bigger blowout.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
Google knows you're a closet sparty, obviously
October 15th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
A lot of ads are based on you search history.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
I have never ever searched for anything to do with an MBA from that place, nor have I looked for an mba from anywhere else.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
A lot of ads are based on you search history.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Can you help me understand why I am getting text messages that proposition me every so often?
October 15th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
And they like to say the girls in Ann Arbor are ugly. Those are two "woof"s if I've ever seen them.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
One thing that worries me about games like the upcoming MSU game, and in a way, our defense in the Don Brown era.
While I do like the attacking style, I think something needs to be done about our defensive play in the red zone.
Right now, we are #112 in red zone defense, and the eye test seems to be anytime you can string two first downs against our defense on any drive, you are going to end up with a touchdown.
While we lead the world in 3-and-outs, it does seem odd how often anytime someone moves the chains on us, it ends up with points on the board for them.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
Part of the reason we have 'bad' red zone defense is a small sample size. Teams don't reach the red zone often against us.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
The flip side of that is how many redzone scores are at the end of the game when we already have the game in hand?
October 15th, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^
"anytime you can string two first downs against our defense on any drive, you are going to end up with a touchdown."
Wow! I had to make sure I read that right, and wasn't still drunk from the weekend. If anything, it seems our defense comes out a little shaky the first few drives, and gets driven on a little bit. Sometimes giving up an early score or 2...but from that point on it has been lights out in just about every game, other than mop up duty.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
Michigan's probably #112 in winning the coin toss, too.
"Red Zone Defense" isn't a thing. It's just "defense." It's not like if a team is at the 21, they can't move the ball, but as soon as they get to the 20, Michigan says, "Cheeri-o, good sport. Please take one of these freshly-baked scones as I escort you to the end zone, whereupon the referee shall award you six points for your excellent effort."
You can measure red-zone defense, just as you can measure coin tosses, or the number of times a given ocelot blinks while the offense is lined up in an empty set. Those stats are all equally predictive and meaningful.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
I mean there's not a difference between the 20 and 21, but finishing drives and scoring TDs close to the goal line is a skill and something that's not a random stat (although there may be some randomness in it). Playing in a condensed field where you don't have as much room to go deep and the defense has the back of the endzone as a defender matters. It's why Bill C has a drive finishing metric of scoring once you're inside the 40.
October 15th, 2018 at 6:20 PM ^
I'm certainly not suggesting that it's not important to finish drives. :) But it is absolutely easier to score a touchdown from the 1 than it is from the 2; it's easier to score from the 2 than the 3, etc. If this weren't the case, defenses would drag players toward the goal line in order to make their next snap more difficult, whereas offenses would be eschewing gained yardage that didn't seem likely to result in a touchdown.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
I always find this "is there such a thing as red zone defense?" question intriguing.
Keep in mind that most teams are not going to have elite defenses. They will have weaknesses they need to mitigate, limitations they need to contend with. Completely shutting their opponents down may not be a realistic possibility. So, how do the coordinators of these defenses approach their jobs?
For many, the first thing they want to do is limit big plays. If they are going to give up points, the offense is going to have to work for it. So they will do things like leave safeties back to help their corners in deep coverage, give cushions to speedy deep threats, etc. For similar reasons, many DCs will reason that the more plays it takes an offense to score, the more chances for a sack, turnover, drive-killing penalty, or other mistake. So they'll cede yardage and try to "keep the offense in front of them." They'll "bend, but not break." In these circumstances, a team that is willing to "take what the defense gives them" can thus find it relatively easy to move the ball between the 20s.
Once you get into the red zone, however, now the defense doesn't have to worry about getting beat deep. Now they can't afford to cede yards and live to play another down. Not only can the defense be more aggressive, they basically have no choice. And the constricted field gives the offense less vertical space for receivers to get open in, makes passing windows tighter, and so on.
So, all of this suggests that there really is such a thing as red zone defense. But the rub is that a good defense doesn't live by these maxims. A good defense is aggressive all the time. A good defense doesn't play to bend-not-break or just keep the offense in front of them. A good defense attacks the offense and tries to kick them off the field immediately. A good defense tries to force mistakes, not just wait for the offense to shoot itself in the foot. A good defense risks giving up a long one here and there in order to shut the opponent down and control the game.
So, if you're playing a team that has a good defense, they aren't really going to play you much differently in the red zone than between the 20s. And if you're playing a team that doesn't get aggressive until you're in the red zone, then you're probably just playing a shitty defense to begin with. So is there really such a thing as red zone defense? Who knows.
It probably just comes down to how significant the field constriction issues are. I think those are insignificant for teams with good rushing offenses, probably a bigger deal for air raid type teams.
October 15th, 2018 at 6:15 PM ^
If this were true, you'd be able to see evidence of it in the statistics. So people have looked for it, and it's not there. Teams that are good in the red zone are good for the other 80 yards too.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
Not buying it. This is always a dog fight and will be again. Play angry my friends.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
Great, another comment that State can use for disrespekt...
October 15th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
MSU being lucky? Who would've thought?!
October 15th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^
MSU was robbed of two fumbles by the refs. One due to a fast whistle and the other for failing to stop play to review another fumble. PSU fully deserved to lose that game.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
I saw the end of the game. Michigan St was in it mentally in the tough moments. There was little time. But it felt like it wasn't over. James Franklin has some great things going for him. But I think he lacks experience. He's 46. But he seems younger.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^
I guess luck is a strategy.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
If Michigan were in Happy Valley on Saturday against THAT PSU team then it would have been like 11/8/1997. So, BFD about the MSU upset.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
Missed FGs concern me more than anything at this point. Not finishing with TDs is one thing, getting no points at all is something else. At this point we just can't count on a FG in a clutch situation.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
People all seem to credit Dantonio for being a great coach, with the evidence being that he wins games that nobody expects, without stopping to consider why they were not expected to win the games in the first place. Despite a decade of success, including two B1G championships and domination over the biggest in-state rival, the team always looks undermanned from a talent perspective--which indicates that they still cannot attract talent. And by the middle of each season, the team has already lost a game or two, which shows they are inconsistent at best. I don't think there is a ton of coaching talent in winning the turnover lottery in 4 point wins at PSU this year and at Michigan last year.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
We frequently already had a loss or two by the middle of the season under Lloyd. Pretty much every year sans 1997 and 2006.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
Before RR and Hoke came along, some of us did not reflect on the Lloyd era as anything approaching the "good old days."
October 15th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
Dantonio's teams play equally well on road, vs at home.. We cannot say that about our team, for the past decade.... not since Carr...... THERE is the big difference... and its telling... hopefully it finally changes this week.
October 15th, 2018 at 5:31 PM ^
I disagree. The Offense hasn't translated well from home to away, but really there hasn't been much offense to translate. Harbaugh won at MSU, and arguably the 16 game at the shoe was one of the best games I've seen any Harbaugh team play. Getting romped at PSU last year happened because they were a superior product than Michigan. Iowa loss was bad, but for 3qtrs we played our best game at Wisconsin last year.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
Meh, they've been winning with luck ever since that fake field goal call to beat Notre Dame in 2010. They know how to hang around when they should most of the time. It will be no different Saturday. They're gonna throw everything they have at us, so we need to bury them early.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^
I don't think the failure to finish drives was a lack of luck.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
Penn St just doesn't come through in the tough moments. Michigan St does, many times. It's mental.
I'll be looking forward to Michigan's power running game on Saturday!!
October 15th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
The PSU game also saw McSorely drop back to pass on 4th and 4 and just slip and fall down. No one touched him or stepped on his foot. Just slipped on the "sparty hidden banana peel". Is that luck? Absolutely!
October 15th, 2018 at 6:54 PM ^
Not luck.
It's kinda like in a pressure situation when Philips Rivers dropped back from the center without the ball. Remember that game, in the 4th qtr, when he dropped, and left before the ball was snapped?
October 15th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
Anyone who has watched Michigan State on an even occasional basis for the last 8 years already knew that.
October 15th, 2018 at 5:28 PM ^
His FG miss wasn't even the worst moment of the first drive....Has no one addressed Milton coming in and running a dead play while Patterson and the O were driving?? I mean no doubt Milton seems to have that special running ability and I am all for him getting chances after his second run in the 4th, but man not the right time there. Totally stalled the drive.
Edit....This was suppose to be in reply to another...
October 15th, 2018 at 7:30 PM ^
We have better talent across the board...go smoke them. No L this year
October 16th, 2018 at 1:04 AM ^
I'll give Dantonio credit - after a tough loss, he got MSU believing in themselves 7 days later.
When MSU tied it at 7-7, and again when MSU tied it at 14-14, the MSU sideline was up and jumping around, they felt confident. Much different than the PSU team, which was just trudging along as if it they were a middle-age man going to an unfulfilling job on a rainy Tuesday.
And confident teams do tend to create their own luck.