Big Ten Teams That Found Success After An Early Season Loss
With most of the board claiming this is the end of everything (I myself posited such a question in the game thread for dramatic effect as the second half began) after a loss on the road with a chance to tie to the #12 team in the country, I thought I would look back at some other teams that went through similar experiences in the conference but rebounded for successful seasons.
2012 Ohio State: 35-28 W over Cal (3-9) - Yes, this wasn't a loss, but Ohio State looked awful against a terrible Cal team. They trailed in the fourth quarter and needed a touchdown with 3 minutes remaining.
12-0 season, no postseason due to sanctions
2012 Nebraska: 30-36 L @ UCLA (9-5) - Nebraska ended up winning the division at 7-1, though they got pounded by Wisconsin in the title game
2013 MSU: 13-17 L @ Notre Dame (9-4) - Michigan State went on the road to South Bend while in the process of breaking in new QB Connor Cook and lost. They finished 13-1, Big Ten and Rose Bowl champs.
2014 Wisconsin: 24-28 L @ LSU (8-5) - Wisconsin went on to make the Big Ten title game, though they got blown out 59-0 by Ohio State. They finished 11-3 with a bowl win over Auburn.
2014 Ohio State: 21-35 L to Virginia Tech (7-6) - Ohio State lost an ugly game to a bad VT team at home while breaking in new QB JT Barrett. They would go on to win the Big Ten and National titles.
2015 Ohio State: 20-13 W over Northern Illinois (8-6) - Ohio State won this one, but it was an ugly home win against a MAC school. They would finish 12-1 with a bowl game victory over Notre Dame.
2016 Penn State: 39-42 L @ Pitt (8-5) - Everyone always talks about how Franklin won a title in year three when discussing Jim Harbaugh's failings, but they rarely mention the circumstances. Penn State lost to a mediocre Pitt team in their second game of the season and then got pounded 49-10 by Michigan shortly after. Entirely by way of fluke (their win over OSU, a game in which Penn State officially committed one penalty and Michigan's loss to Ohio State, a game in which Ohio State officially committed only two penalties, one a false start), they found themselves in the Big Ten title game, where they proceeded to come back and beat Wisconsin. They lost to USC to finish 11-3.
2017 Ohio State: 16-31 L to Oklahoma (12-2) - Ohio State lost at home to a very good Oklahoma team, but rebounded to win the Big Ten and finish 12-2.
So there you have it. Anyone who thinks the season is over has completely discounted the talent of this team and the history of any number of successful Big Ten seasons.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
Like we are the ONLY team that is going to benefit from a few easy weeks to let us "gel"...
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^
Not saying we are, but we may be in the minority with having a brand new QB and some young wrs that need the extra game experience to gel. And I was only making the point that it is another option.
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
I'm playing pessimist in this thread, but I hope to God you're right, bd.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^
No, it is an option. But we've been saying this nearly every year for way too long for it to be inspirational anymore.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^
I'd bet money all those teams had functional OL's and legit D1 tackles on each side.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:30 AM ^
I'm sure everyone thought this when Michigan State was losing to Notre Dame in 2013 and Ohio State was losing to Virginia Tech in 2014. I bet there was no panic at all over those dismal offensive performances. Just quiet resolve that things would get better.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:51 AM ^
This is a great post. You’ve made excellent points. The problem though, is that Michigan has had the same problems year after year with no resolve.
Those teams listed each improved week after week. History tells us that Michigan teams usually have a different trajectory. In ‘16 they lost their last 3 games. ‘17 they started strong then collapsed again to finish with 5 losses.
Could this year be different? Sure. But I’m not counting on it. Until the OL issues are fixed and the play calling improves, this could be another 3-5 loss season. I sincerely hope that is not the case.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^
This is the first year we’ve had Warinner as our OL coach though. His track record gives reason for hope.
(BTW, in ‘16 we lost 3 of our last 4. In between was the amazing snow game vs. IU.)
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^
Very true. His track record is excellent. We will find out soon enough. I think we will see a little more shakeup on the OL this week.
Yes, the snow game. I forgot about that one. My pessimism only allows me to remember the bad and not the good, unfortunately.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^
I mean, the year that Michigan lost early under Harbaugh they had a similar season to the ones above if not for Blake O'Neill dropping a punt. That team improved as the year went on.
2016's team was good all the way through until for whatever reason, Wilton Speight forgot how to play football and then got hurt.
Last year is the outlier.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^
Michigan improved as the year went on in both 2015 and 2016. 2016 looks bad in retrospect, but when you factor in Speight's injury, the nature of that OSU game and then Peppers injury just before kick-off to match-up with Dalvin Cook, those results make sense.
It is only 2017 thus far in Jim Harbaugh's tenure where things got uglier as the season went on (and even then, one could argue that Michigan looked pretty good against Wisconin until Peters went out and would have beaten Ohio State with any other QB than John O'Korn).
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
Msu got obliterated by ND at home last year, and OSU got whooped by oklahoma and Iowa. But they beat Micihigan so all was well.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:55 AM ^
Both those programs have previous success to fall back on we had 8-5 and a putrid offense from a year ago to fall back on there's a slight difference in all of that. Not to mention that whole one year since a WR actually caught a TD pass
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
Really?
2011 Ohio State was good?
2012 Michigan State was good?
2015 Penn State was good?
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
OSU has been class of conference since 2002. One freak season means nothing.
MSU since 2010 has been right behind OSU with back to back 11 win seasons before that bad season with Maxwell.
PSU is the outlier but put up back to back great seasons admittedly with Moorhead likely running the show.
Michigan has faded down the stretch and not beat anyone worth a damn in a decade. Has no previous success this decade to fall back on and our only hope is Warriner working with a bad batch of tackles that recruiting homers talk up to be all galaxy world.
Forgive me for wanting to see real success before I think a corner has been turned.
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
You're looking at all of this from hindsight.
2013 Michigan State was coming off a garbage season and the thought that their time at the top was over. Their QB situation was so bad they went with Connor Cook, who promptly looked terrible against Notre Dame. I'm around MSU fans all the time. They were legitimately on the ledge. There was no indication that that would be their best team under Dantonio after the ND game.
Likewise, Urban Meyer in 2012 was coming off a horrible finish to his Florida tenure while OSU was coming off 6-7. And people ALWAYS forget this, but in 2014 after Virginia Tech, he was taking serious criticism because he was 0-3 in his last 3 real games (which, conveniently, were the first games he had actually played anyone).
Michigan literally beat the two teams that played for the Big Ten Championship in 2016.
Nothing you say holds up.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
Michigan state had back-to-back 11-win Seasons before dantonio made a mistake on Andrew Maxwell. And even then they had Le'Veon Bell and had really tough close losses.
OSU in 2011 lost their head coach lost their starting running back and quarterback lost their returning skill players for the first 10 games of the season prior to that Sugar Bowl Big Ten title Big Ten title.
Urban Meyer won 2 national titles in a 3-year span won the sugar bowl on a 12 win team then lost his great OC in Mullen and made a bad choice in his QB. Then went undefeated in year one at Ohio State.
Michigan on the other hand in the prior 3 years has beat Wisconsin at home I will give you Penn State since you're living on that in 2016 and that's about it. No good road wins hasn't beat a good Ohio State or Michigan State team and beat a Jim McElwain lead Florida team. Whoopie.
September 3rd, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
Again, you're looking at everything from hindsight and not with how people were reacting at the moment.
If we're throwing out track records, Michigan had two 10 win season prior to last year (and was only denied more by some very fluky results) and Jim Harbaugh resurrected two programs before he got here. You said we hadn't beaten anyone in a decade, I pointed to multiple games 2 years ago that proved you wrong.
Take the L Johnny.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
You’d lose that bet. 2016 PSU had an abysmal OL. They did, however have Saquon Barkley and Joe Moorehead.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^
Could any of those teams block?
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:35 AM ^
Probably not in those games.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^
For reference:
JT Barrett was 9-29 against Virginia Tech. Ohio State rushed for 108 yards on 40 carries.
Connor Cook was 16-32 against Notre Dame. Michigan State rushed for 119 yards on 35 carries.
So no, not really.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
Ohio State has an offensive identity, in fact they have never been an efficient passing offense in the traditional sense. The gash you up the gut, spread you out wide, and will occassional hit a long bomb because they churn out 5 star deep threats like we'll every other talented position they have.
Michigan State gets stronger as the season goes on. They typical struggle in the non con, get blown out in the odd Big Ten game because they are a team of 3 stars and fringe 4's, but generally finish strong after thumping Michigan
At Michigan we get worse week to week. Last week might have been the best game we play all year just like Florida was the best game we played last year
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
"Michigan State gets stronger as the season goes on. They typical struggle in the non con, get blown out in the odd Big Ten game because they are a team of 3 stars and fringe 4's, but generally finish strong after thumping Michigan."
Not necessarily. 2012 and 2016 come to mind. Also, they lost to Northwestern and Ohio State after playing us last year, especially getting blown out by the Buckeyes, and had struggles keeping leads over even mediocre teams like Indiana.
As for their bowl game, keep in mind that Washington State 1.) isn't a defensive team and 2.) was missing key players for that game. So while they were likely to get that win anyway, they had some help in vacated positions on the Cougars' side of the ball.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^
Yes, both the 2015 and 2016 teams under Harbaugh got worse as the season went along. Great point.
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
"Yes, both the 2015 and 2016 teams under Harbaugh got worse as the season went along. Great point."
If by worse you mean that 2 of our 3 losses in 2015 were by a TD or less, all 3 of our losses in 16 were by a TD or less, and 4 of our 5 losses last year were in games that could have swung either way, I'll take that.
Only twice have we really ever been "blown out" since Harbaugh got here.
In one sense, a loss is a loss. But losing by the skin of your teeth IS different than losing by 3 or 4 scores. Bet on it.
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^
2016 team lost 3 of their last 4 games. Weren’t exactly improving over their 9-0 start.
The Outback Bowl was a big red flag to me, I was stunned at the ineptitude of the staff and team in the second half and the players looked like some of them quit. That doesn’t happen with well run and well coached teams. I saw some bad things during the regular season, but nothing alarming from such a young team, but when you blow a 19-3 second half lead in a Bowl game against a team you were a strong favorite to beat it’s not easy to explain away. We had 4 weeks of practice and looked like we regressed
So with the OB Bowl in my head I watched our offense look like a total joke until the 4th quarter when they racked up some yards and 7 points going against the prevent defense. My doubts have grown. I am still hopeful because I have an optimistic personality. But to ignore the warning signs at this point is to be full on in denial.
4-6 in our last 10 and 4 losses in a row, those numbers say a lot about the state of our program. I see 8-4, but we’re a bad half and a couple bounces against a team were supposed to beat away from things really heading south and fast.
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
Yeah, but why did they lose in 2016?
The Iowa game was the loss that hurts the most where you go "Eh, shit happens". Speight then gets hurt in that game and has to play hurt against Ohio State limiting the offense. The officiating played its part as well. The defense held Ohio State's offense to 10 points in regulation. That doesn't sound like they got weaker.
They lost to Florida State when Jabrill Peppers - aka the one guy who could check Dalvin Cook - got hurt before the kick-off. And they still almost won that game.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
Shea’s stats were better than either of those.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:40 AM ^
Losing to a solid ND squad by 7 in South Bend is not the end of the world. But we’re going to need to see some major improvement if we have a shot at the conference title.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^
I really hope the assumption that this is a solid ND team isn't one that comes back to haunt everyone here. For all we know this could be ND's version of the Michigan-Florida season opener in 2017.
I'm of the solid opinion that this is the reason that ND wanted to stop these games. They were always flukey tossups that ended up with a loss to a team that ended up not being very good at the end of the season that would derail your season regardless of how good you were. IE, we'd beat ND, damper their season, then go on to suck, or vice versa.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
All of the teams listed had an o line and an O coord
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
Yeah and I bet every single fan base thought really highly of their OLs and OCs when they were losing the games listed above (or defenses and DCs if the game was lost on that side of the ball). I bet they were all completely rational, saying "Eh, its early, this was a blip in the radar and things will improve as the season progresses".
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:56 AM ^
Great post OP. Our fan base needs perspective. 1st game of college football is flukey and really kind of like a preseason game. I've said this 100s of times but I really wish colleges could do a spring scrimmage or spring game against other teams.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:56 AM ^
We lost to a solid ND team, on the road, at night. The goal is still obtainable: win the B1G
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^
If we can get the OTs to be competent in pass pro, it opens up a lot for our offense. But it’s not a given. Which absolutely sucks in year 4 under JH. I know, late decommits, brief first recruiting cycle, Newsome injury etc. But we haven’t had good bookends since Lewan and Schofield. Cole was competent but out of position.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
Not having semi-competent players back their is an absolute disaster at this point. Plenty of teams out there don't recruit in the top 20 regularly and still field at least functional offensive lines.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
Yes, exactly. Recruiting misses are valid points, but we should still put together a competent line. What were the star ratings of Wisconsin's current dominant OL?
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
I know that he had a brief recruiting cycle in 15 and we had a top OT decommit on signing day in 16 IIRC, but I just can’t imagine we couldn’t snag a solid commit from an average P5 or MAC team that could develop into average after a couple years. We had 2 OT commits in 2015 - Newsome and Ulizio (though he might have been an interior prospect) plus Runyan, who I believe was an interior OL til this offseason. Then we had 0 in 2016. You would think that JH would look at the roster and realize that we were going to be dependent on the 16 class for some good tackles. And we got 0. Got a few in 17 but they’ve almosy all switched to interior. Bad scouting and recruiting at that position. We have multiple options at literally every other position on the roster (save P). Mind boggling
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
I’m of the opinion that starting with a tougher opponent makes you a better team in the long run.
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
^^^ THIS. ND exposed our flaws. We can work on those things now. Beating multiple cupcakes by 30 each game to start the season can give a team (and fanbase) a false sense of security.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:11 AM ^
We are 4-6 in our last 10 games and riding a 4 game losing streak.
Thats the difference between us and the teams people are listing. Trajectory.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
People were literally talking about letting Urban Meyer go when he was 1-3 in his last four at OSU in 2014.
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
Urban Meyer isn't a good comparison here. He's lost all of 8 games since 2012... We're looking at a program that has lost 9 in it's last 18 games! Not even comparable at this point
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^
Right, because Urban Meyer had the 5th and 6th ranked recruiting classes from 2011 and 2012 at his disposal in 2014.
Jim Harbaugh had the 20th and 37th ranked classes from 2014 and 2015 last year.
So its not a fair comparison, but not for the reasons you think.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:19 AM ^
Agree. Zero change from last year. Maybe worse. No evidence to think we are going to beat any ranked teams.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
Yeah, QB looked exactly the same. You're right.
September 3rd, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
Offensive line looked worse.
Call it a wash? Yeah, same as last year.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^
2016 PSU is the best comparison. It might be the only example with an atrocious OL all season. Granted, they had Joe Moorehead ... and we don't.
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
I want to believe, just need to see some progression by the o-line to give me some confidence.