The Big Payoff

Submitted by Blue_42 on March 27th, 2018 at 11:29 AM

With our advancement to the Final Four, I think we are now tied with North Carolina for the most post season wins since 2013.  I believe this also makes our 2nd Final Four appearance in that span and hopefully the 2nd for making it to the championship game.

For the better part of the last 5 yrs we have been one the four or five best teams in the country in those regards.  My question is when do we start to see the big "payoff"?  Meaning, when do we begin to get a McDonald's All-America player or two.

I know they are usually one and done for the most part. But I'd love to see us get one of those guys every year.   Go Blue!



March 27th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^

In my dream world where AAU has no influence, shoe companies only sell shoes, and the NCAA actually could enforce rules and did it, I have often wondered what recruits Beilein would get. He has recruited the truly elite (top 25) guys. Few have come. That doesn't mean he doesn't get good talent. He routinely has brought in guys ranked 25-150. That's pretty good. 

When the top 25 guys are basically gift wrapped for UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Arizona, Louisville, whoever else you think is cheating, it is really hard to get guys out of that top 25 tier. 

In my dream world, does Michigan get Battle (Syracuse)? Jaylen Brown (Cal)? Brian Bowen (Louisville)? Keep in mind, all three of those schools have been caught cheating (not just alleged).


March 27th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^

We'll ever get the attention of the uber-talents and one-and-done types, at least not until the landscape of NCAA/NBA basketball changes. Beilein relies on TEAMWORK and now on DEFENSE, and a lot of that takes time and learning and a process (ask Charles Matthews, [D]uncan Robinson). You won't get that as much from kids who are eyeing an NBA contract before they step on campus.

I'm fine with Beilein getting the castaways.

Gentleman Squirrels

March 27th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^

Agreed. The big payoff shouldn't be getting super high recruits but being able to compete year in and year out with recruits that fit Beilein's system. I don't think Michigan will ever attract a one and done, but if they can get high level recruits like last year and this year (recruits that can contribute immediately and eventually work into starter role by their sophomore or junior year), being competitive every year shouldn't be out of the question.


March 27th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^

Why the concern with players playing out their eligibility?  Any NBA prospects we had in the past did not stay till graduation.

If you have a team full of seniors I can guarantee you that they are not a very good team. Very rarely will you see a legit prospect stick around for another year. And if they do, it usually comes back to bite them in the end.  Ask Mr. Bridges about his decision.


March 27th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^

Personally, if these guys are not interested in being legitimate students then they should not even be here. I know people will wring their hands and claim that we'll never win in the major sports without keeping up with the schools that pay for the one-and-dones (and the CFB equivalents of 2- or 3-and-dones), but I don't care at this point. School is for students. If teams can't win without resorting to guys that just use it as a glorified daycare or summer camp before going pro, then those teams should not be competing at this league.


March 27th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^

I don't think that is a completly fair statement. As much as I really dislike Calipari, Kentucky and all of the cheating they represent, the years he has won a championship his teams have played very good defense and traded individual stats for team success.

In that 30 for 30 (one of the few things ESPN does really well) about Calipari, Anthony Davis tells a story about how he was not playing well in the National Championship game and at half time he told his team mates to just let him play defense and rebound. He asked everyone else to get the points. That was a lottery pick saying that on the biggest stage. Maybe he is just that kind of guy, but that mentality also comes from the coach.

I felt dirty writing this. I'm going to go shower now.


March 27th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^

Have you been ignoring everything going on with college basketball off the court this year? If you want to get those players you have to break the rules. Beilein will not break the rules, and for that I'm glad.


March 27th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^

Neither. There is no legit reason why we shouldn't see a bump in recruiting as a result. Yes, I understand that coach is straight as an arrow.  But I can't believe that every major recruit is on the take.  And obviously there is a path to the NBA thru Michigan.


March 27th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^

...UM had a loaded team with a bunch of future NBA players and went to the National Championship Game.  They followed that up with a B1G Championship & Elite Eight the next season.  Recruiting since then...

2014 - 5 commits, 30th (ranking using the 247 Composite)

2015 - 1 commit, 107th

2016 - 4 commits, 31st

2017 - 3 commits, 43rd

2018 - 5 commits, 16th (as of this morning)

If you're expecting UM to all of a sudden start reeling in Top 5 classes full of one-and-done types, I don't know what to tell you.


March 27th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^

this is not completely fair

Foreign players don't easily fit into the "top 100" lists because it is hard, maybe impossible, to evaluate fairly across borders equally. From my recall, by the time he was coming Mo was held in the regard equal to a boom or bust top 100 type player 


March 27th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^

Basketball is a pretty dirty business, and it starts before the kids ever get to college in areas like the AAU circuit.

Consider that Louisville, who is proven to be extremely dirty, never recruited one-and-done types and typically wasn't in contention for top-20 type guys in any season. If they're cheating and getting guys of that level, how are we going to do that clean?

We have a good recruiting class coming in. I'm happy with it. And right now we have a group of spare parts that other people didn't know about or didn't want, and they're in the final four.

Beilein is the clean one. He recruits guys that he can get while being clean. He develops them. And he wins.


March 27th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^

Makes you wonder what percentage of the top 25-50 players accept illegal benefits.  I'm not even saying I blame them all based upon their situation.  Just thinking about how many top players a clean program has any chance for. 


You would think that a player's parents would many times want their kid playing for a clean guy like JB. 


March 27th, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^

22) MD PF Jalen Smith, Maryland

27) IL CG Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois

38) NC SF Aaron Wiggins, Maryland

48) MN C Daniel Oturu, Minnesota

50) IA SG Joe Wieskamp, Iowa

52) OH PF Jerome Hunter, Indiana

57) MI PF Marcus Bingham, Michigan State

74) MI PF Brandon Johns, Michigan

...UM's highest-rated recruit (via the 247 Composite) ranks 8th amongst current B1G commits.  Stop worring about starzzzzzzz.  Trust Beilein.


March 27th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^

I heard (YES, on a radio show with talking people who talk about sports and get paid to do it) that ALL the STARRY freshmen are eliminated from this tournament now, and that has been the trend for the last couple years. It was Pat Forde, and he said the veteran teams are starting to show the value of players with experience, good coaching and the process of skill and team building!

And I didn't have to go to Cartagena to hear it!


March 27th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

That's is a very interesting point.  The 1 and dun factories (Duke, NC, KY, Zona) are all done.  Kansas has had a fair share of 1 and duns.   This year both Kansas and Villanova only have 2 Frosh contributors, but that is only because they had a small class last year.   

I do think talented upper classmen will beat 5* freshman more often than not.  This is even more true with well coached upper classmen.  

CRISPed in the DIAG

March 27th, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^

Yes. And Luke Maye was a walk-on. UNC's lack of 1 and done-ness was cited as a reason for last year's title. They went '15 thru '17 without a top 50, IIRC.

That said, they have two (2) 5-stars in '18's class (Nassar Llittle and Coby White) in addition to a 4-star. They're back.


March 27th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^

I'd rather have more and more classes like our fall 2018 incomers than classes filled with one and dones. Beilein knows how to build a winner with groups that are a mix of solid four year contributors and a couple two-to-three year stars who leave slightly early for the NBA. Frankly, that model is more fun as a fan too. I enjoy the continuity and watching players grow over a few seasons.

Iggy, Johns, and DeJulius will be great players here, but I don't anticipate any leaving after a year and probably not two. These are perfect players for Beilein's system.

Also - zero potential one and done players are in the Final Four this season! So what's the "big payoff", exactly?


March 27th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^

I don't know that this is true, at least all the time. It seems like there are considerable risks / downsides in having one-and-done players. Leaning on that strategy to a point where your success will be somewhat reliant on it (even if it is just one standout player) does seem like it has cost some teams here and there, even if it a temporary skid. 

Beilein's system in general just does not seem well-suited to the concept in the first place, even if there was interest from such players. That's fine too, because clearly this system, program and style is working without the need for a one-and-done type.