The Bettors are picking Michigan, uh-oh?

Submitted by GoingBlue on December 26th, 2021 at 10:04 PM

About 70% of spread bets and 80% of money line bets are on Michigan. This was reversed for the Ohio State game. 
 

Typically you want the money to be on your opponent. Logic being, Vegas knows more than the average bettor. 
 

It is still early, most of the money will likely be bet on the day of the game. Hopefully it turns around and Vegas shows they at least want to even up the money. 
 

Of course this has no real impact on the game, but it’s an interesting predictor. Go Blue! 

Goggles Paisano

December 27th, 2021 at 6:14 AM ^

It makes sense for the very reason you stated (value on GA isn't worth it) and many people think Michigan can win this game. The viewership for the Mich/Osu game was thru the roof and everyone watched that beatdown.  That performance, which creates perceived value in Michigan, is driving that money line action.   

 

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dankbrogoblue

December 27th, 2021 at 8:21 AM ^

This shouldn’t be overlooked. If it’s “number of bets,” a $5 bet on Michigan and $50,000 bet on Georgia are of equal weight, the way OP worded it. OP didn’t provide a source for us to double check.

If 80% of the money (not bets) were on Michigan and Vegas was keeping the line where it is, that would be concerning.

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M Squared

December 27th, 2021 at 9:11 AM ^

Yes and no.  Vegas "cares" as in they keep data on it but Vegas is more than happy to let the public take the wrong side on a bet and therefore be at risk in a game.  Vegas's fears are the professional bettors not the public, and they protect against being exploited by professional bettors by setting a sharp line (i.e., a line at which the majority of the professional bettors do not take one side but even out across both sides).

If Vegas's goal on a particular game were to even out the money (as is the common myth) then Vegas could never do better than the vig.  That does not maximize profitability for the sportsbooks.  There is a reason that Vegas won a ton of money when the Lions beat the Cardinals a few weeks ago; it's because the money was not even on both sides; the money was heavily on the Cardinals including through money line parlays of favorites, a common betting strategy of the public.

This game's line movement down coincided with some early COVID reports coming out of the Georgia camp.  I suspect that was the basis of the line move not public money on Michigan.  It's possible that sharps moved the line down but unlikely because sharps like to take the lines early.  COVID has thrown a massive monkey wrench into that historic practice of sharps.  Vegas is telling us that Georgia has north of a 70% chance of winning this game.  (Now, Vegas has underestimated Michigan all season, but in the long run, they tend to correct themselves and are better at predicting sports outcomes than anyone else including the sports "experts"/analysts and even coaches.  Let's hope the less than 30% chance is the real world occurrence in this instance.)

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RickSnow

December 26th, 2021 at 10:35 PM ^

It’s fine so far because the line is actually moving (down from 8.5 to 7.5 in recent days). The uh oh would come if the money stays 80% on Michigan and the line doesn’t budge.

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XM - Mt 1822

December 26th, 2021 at 10:35 PM ^

i must have something mixed up, granted i'm not a bettor.  but if the money is coming in late to michigan that means michigan is expected to beat the spread (i.e., lose by less than the 7.5 pts) and it is exactly like the game v. ohio.  ohio was ~ 7-8 pt favorite and the late money came in on michigan and the rest is history, so to speak.  in effect, we had momentum going into the game. 

where am i wrong on this? 

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njvictor

December 26th, 2021 at 11:05 PM ^

Bettors using lines moving and where money is being bet as a gauge of how confident you should be in your team or how likely you are to win will never not be hilarious to me. It's like sports astrology

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Durham Blue

December 26th, 2021 at 11:37 PM ^

My bets are part of the 70% ATS and 80% ML.

But I too am a bit surprised that the line is still hovering at 7.5 or 8.  If the bets continue to come in heavy on Michigan as they are now then the bookies would have to adjust the line down because they stand to lose their collective shirts if Michigan does what most on this board think they will do.

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BTB grad

December 27th, 2021 at 12:08 AM ^

This is bad news if ~80% of money is on Michigan but the line doesn’t move Michigan’s way. The first inkling I had about Michigan winning vs. OSU (except my brain didn’t let me believe it because BPONE) was when OSU was getting 90% of the money and yet they still moved the line U-M’s way from -8.5 to -7.5. Vegas knew something and was taking a stand that everyone was wrong and that Michigan was going to win and they leaned into it to take more OSU money. Vegas doesn’t lose often. They ended up making a fortune on that game. Gambling sharps love taking the opposition when Public Joes are on a team like 80%+. It’s a winning strategy. I’d be worried if the line doesn’t move and the money stays on U-M. 

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Durham Blue

December 27th, 2021 at 12:47 AM ^

I will take off my maize and blue tinted glasses and try to put myself in the shoes of a line setter.

I think the bookies are looking at this game like this: the SEC has been the dominant force in college football for the past 12 years.  UGA was #1 for most of the season and is loaded with talent.  The loss to Alabama was probably a bit of a fluke.  Will a team as talented as UGA lose two in a row?  Probably not.  Michigan is a newbie to the CFP and has been on fire as of late.  Michigan may be due for a let down.  And Michigan does not have as much of the high end talent as UGA.

These are all valid points and the bookies' strategy is pretty obvious.  Keep the traditionally heavy Michigan bettors engaged with an enticing line that is a tick above a TD.  The bookies think UGA will win by 10+ points.

Of course the game will be played out on the field and here's to hoping the bookies lose big.

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Ezekiels Creatures

December 27th, 2021 at 1:27 AM ^

The loss to Alabama was probably a bit of a fluke.

That could be the thought. But I saw most of the game. Alabama just beat them. I'm sure they saw it too.

An indicator to me that Georgia is beatable is not just the Alabama game, it's the Florida game too. The score makes it look like a Georgia blow out. But a very fluky 2nd qtr made it look that way. Believe it or not Florida had 2 more first downs for the game, and 1 more total yard. Considering how bad Florida was this year that doesn't look good for Georgia.  I know Florida looked good in the 2nd half against Alabama. But Alabama improved since that game. I don't think Georgia has improved like that. The Alabama games shows they didn't.

Seriously, Georgia's offense isn't that powerful. Alabama made that clear for all to see. When it mattered Georgia's offense couldn't get it done. Stetson Bennett had Georgia fans pulling their hair and screaming.  Georgia's strength is their LBs. Michigan has to do a good job on them. Those LBs probably have Hassan Haskins on the brain right about now.

I am probably biased, but I'm beginning to think Michigan is going to win. But, that's probably my heart talking. These big games are so hard to pick when you have to keep your heart in check.

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M Squared

December 27th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^

EC, I hear you that Georgia has looked not so great in a couple games but so have we.  Look at our Nebraska and Rutgers and even Penn State games.  We underperformed in those games.  Georgia's loss was to Alabama, which is on a different planet to Michigan State (granted we lost more closely). 

Outside of the historically great teams, it's true of almost all national champions that they will play some duds, and the duds won't be a true reflection of the team's capability.  4 weeks is a long time to reset for any team. 

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Ezekiels Creatures

December 27th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^

I don't have a problem with the Nebraska and Penn St games. They were away. And I think in both games Michigan was learning to break down psychological barriers that had been built in the team since the 2016 season.

The Rutgers game was strange. The offense disappeared in the 2nd half. Penalties. 3 and outs. That game may have been a cold slap in the face to the team that started them playing better.

The only game that concerned me personally was the State game and how the defense didn't key on Walker lll enough.

Other than the turnover fest second qtr for Florida, Georgia didn't do much in that game. And as bad a year as Florida had, they were able to move the ball in the 2nd half.

Anyway, I don't think the Michigan players are intimidated by Georgia. It's probably going to be a very close game, closer than many think it will be. I don't know who will win. If I listen to my head I don't like the results. I just hope there's no turnovers by Michigan.

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smotheringD

December 27th, 2021 at 1:38 AM ^

Adding to your valid points, there is nothing like a loss to help a team refocus and double-down on their effort.  As far as the letdown, Vegas might think OSU was a little flat against us after crushing MSU, and that we may have a similar drop in performance after crushing Iowa.  And I think Michigan still conjures up memories of predictable offense, 3 yards and a cloud of dust, in spite of our explosive play stats to the contrary.

Having said that, we can not underestimate the power of a hair-on-fire Aidan Hutchinson to ignite our boys.  Nor the abilities of a Broyles award winning OC to scheme a superior game plan.  Nor the synergistic energy fueled by a tight brotherhood forged in adversity.  Nor the sheer will and determination of HH who grinds out yards after contact like perhaps no one else in the country.

Like another commenter said, I think the key to the game may be the performance of our O line.  And I think our receiving corps is underestimated.  Cade and JJ just have to get them the ball without costly TO's.

Given the strengths of both teams, it's shaping up to be an old school slobberknocker.

I don't bet like I used to, but the points look good to me.

Go Blue!

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Durham Blue

December 27th, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^

I totally agree.  And Michigan has the projected #1 NFL pick at defensive end.  And he is a game wrecker for an opposing offense as we have witnessed all season long.  And the other DE is really good too.

Forget the maize and blue tinted glasses, I totally believe Michigan can win this game.  Michigan is a really scary team right now in all three phases.  The coaches and senior leaders will not rest on their laurels and they won't let the younger players do that either.  Michigan needs to be ready, and will be.  But Georgia better be ready too because they are going to get Michigan's best shot.

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