BBall Recruiting - Updated 247 Rankings for 2019
Its final rankings week for the 2019 class. 247 released today, with Rivals to follow tomorrow. I'll give a short rundown with my thoughts on the respective rankings and where those values stack up against my initial projections
https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/RecruitRankings/?Instituti…
Commits:
Jalen Wilson (down to #44; appropriate range IMO; warned folks he was more of a 40-60 type as opposed to the early 5star rankings)
Cole Bajema (down to #69; appropriate range IMO; I didn't really have a strong take on this one since I haven't seen Cole live, but opined he's a 75-100 type)
Offers/Targets:
Nashon Hyland (debuts at #60; appropriate range IMO; said roughly a month ago that he'd be a top 50 type if I were to re-rank. Easily that level in this class)
People have stated that Franz would be a highly rated prospect if he were stateside. Have you seen enough to give your opinion on where he would be ranked in the 2019 class?
I haven't seen Franz live, so take it with a huge gain of salt. But based on the limited film I've viewed I'd probably have him in the 75-100 range. Plus shooter with good positional size, but a limited athlete that lacks shot creating ability.
Basically, a smaller version of his brother. My projection would be nearly identical to Mo. Not likely to be a guy that's going to contribute as a freshman, but a nice long term pick-up.
Interesting. My impression is that being a wing instead of a big allows him to contribute more right away in a situational role - similar to how guys like a young Irvin, Levert, or Dawkins did. I'm also more bullish on his immediate contributions given how much he plays for the top-tier German team as compared to Moe.
He doesn't contribute all that much for Berlin, I think that is the common misconception. A guy that averages less than 3 points per game on 35% from distance, in tandem with his film, likely isn't going to move the needle all that much as a freshman in my opinion. But with the lack of live evaluation, I could certainly be wrong on this one.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/franz-wagner-1.html
I'm pretty sure those stats are incomplete and/or out of date, as they're don't include Derrick Walton who joined the team in February. The link below shows Walton has played 12 games so far.
https://basketball.realgm.com/international/league/15/German-BBL/team/142/ALBA-Berlin/stats
These stats show Franz playing six more games and raising his scoring average to 4.9 and shooting 40% from 3. That's with a deeper line than CBB. Walton is playing ~20 minutes a game. Franz has been in 26 of 31 games, averaging ~13 minutes. He even led them in scoring one recent game.
By comparison Moe played in 4 games for the senior team and averaged less than 4 minutes per game.
Thanks for this!
Always looking for matt's first reply in his threads so I can up vote accordingly. As usual thank you for the updates.
Speaking of Franz, I’d be curious when we should see some resolution that that front? It feels like the longer this goes on, the lesser our chances of landing him are.
Hoping we get him and Cumberland. If we lose out on both of these, I’ll officially move to being somewhat concerned about next season.
Franz's timeline was always going to be later than the recruits in the states because he has games through June and wont be able to take a visit until then.
Thanks, I hadn't heard that timeline. I wasn't sure if we would bend the rule about an on-campus visit for an international player, being that Beilein met with him in Germany.
With a June timeline, I'm even more concerned. Guess all we can do is hope for the best.
I cant remember what Rivals guy it was but a Rivals guy on Twitter said Franz would be a 5 star.
Im not a scout but ive watched his available videos on YouTube and I believe it. He looks like he would come in and immediately start. A Franz commitment would essentially erase the loss of Iggy
Being diplomatic, I'd be thrilled if Franz could come in and produce half of what Iggy did this season.
I think he would be effective in a primarily just a shooter role next to Livers who, along with Teske, could probably cover up the defensive deficiencies he will surely have as a freshman. With his length and quick release I don't think he'd have much of an issue getting his shot off. Michigan could really use an effective spot up shooter (or 3) on this team.
Also hoping Brooks can really make a leap to become a consistent open 3 point shooter, his stroke is good enough for it at least.
Agreed. I think a catch and shoot role as a stretch 4 type is the most likely path to playing time for Franz as a freshman.
We need a true 2 badly. Brooks is small at the 2 and a great shooter or creator. I know it’s a long shot but if Nunez can be a 8-10 minute a game guy who can shoot a 38% clip from 3 that would be a huge asset.
If we land Cumberland, we will have that true 2 who shoots 40 percent on a high number.
Penny is doing a nuts job recruiting at Memphis
Center James Wiseman Ranked #2 Committed
Guard RJ Hampton Ranked #5 Memphis leads
Forward Precious Achiuwa #9 Memphis leads
Guard Lester Quinones #49 Memphis leads
He's going to make Calipari look clean.
He certainly can pay out of pocket better than Miller or any of the rest of them.
We know we have one spot open and possibly two. With Hyland supposedly leaning juco route, I'd think we would go after Cumberland hard then see what Iggy does and have Franz waiting for that spot
Juco or prep?
Neither. Sam said his plan is to stay in the ‘19 class unless it isn’t possible for him.
Was thinking I had read that he had grades issues
I think it is more credits than grades. He missed quite a bit of school because of his injury and just the terrible circumstances around it. I've heard quite a few people saying he may not qualify in this class and may be forced to take a prep year.
Matt - I'm wondering your opinion of the incoming recruits and their ability to contribute in some way next season.
On the one hand, I see a lot of people saying "they're not ready" or "they're on the 2-year plan" for various reasons such as conditioning, pedigree, background, etc. This take is supported by the fact that every non-Iggy recruit this year couldn't even crack the rotation.
On the other hand, I'm seeing two recruits as positions of dire need who are ranked in the top 75 nationally and a program that has minutes to offer. I also remember guys who probably weren't truly ready such as Irvin, Dawkins, Rahk, Levert, Chatman and Spike all getting at least some minutes right away when a few of those names were ranked MUCH lower. (I have a theory that the new focus on defense has prevented Beilein from giving minutes to freshmen like he used to.)
What say you? I don't see why Wilson, Bajema, or Franz couldn't play 10-15 productive minutes next year.
No doubt about it, Wilson is the most ready-to-play freshman. He has the highest floor of the trio you mention (although Franz is not in the mix yet) based on a college ready frame with a physical game that should translate in the B10. He's a jack of all trades type, but isn't necessarily great at any one skill facet. He's the type of guy that is the pillar of college programs sustaining success...……...ready to contribute from Day 1, but not necessarily skilled/athletic enough to be a one-and-done, or in this case, perhaps not ready to test the waters until he's a junior. This fits in perfectly with my 'return value' model.
Bajema is not likely to contribute at all in the early going in my opinion. Best case scenario for him is being a rotational guy by late February/early March once he's able to add 15-20lbs of muscle mass. He has the highest ceiling of the trio, as he has shot creating ability for himself and teammates in a 6'7 to go along with a nice looking shot from distance.
Do you think Wilson ends up in the starting lineup by B1G season next to Livers? Johns is still a question mark and there aren't a plethora of wing options on the roster to replace Matthews/Iggy.
It's possible, but I don't think its likely. I think a second year Johns will likely hold him off for minutes at the 4 spot.
I'm reading into the scouting reports and honestly the biggest comp for Bajema I see here is Caris LeVert: similar spindly build with shot making ability and the frame to be a flexible defender down the road. LeVert was far from complete as a freshman but he was able to flash some skills before turning into a dynamic albeit oft injured player. Really excited to see what Beilein can turn him into, especially since he seems to be a bit overlooked by much of the board. Your thoughts on the comp or am I way off base here?
Once again, thanks for all you do Matt. Seeing your updates and opinions on the board always lifts up my day!
This thread has been over-run with unreasonable expectations. These kids have solid potential-no signs of Iggy here. Michigan had better hope they get "Cumberland"...because otherwise next year-in the likelihood that Iggy does not return-will very likely be rough going.
Going to play devils advocate and say that Iggy was a bit of an anomaly for Beilein's system. There's a reason he's the first one and done Michigan has had since Beilien took over.
The system is tough for a freshman to pick up. Guys like Simpson, Mo, MAAR didn't look like anything special when they first arrived on the scene. Fast forward to now and we know they were core components of some excellent teams. It's easy to get caught up in the flash of 5 star uber athletes, but some of college basketball's best teams like Virginia and Villanova are built on upperclassman growing into roles overtime. Freshman contributors like Iggy are luxuries rather than the foundation.
If I'm looking at next season, I think we have enough floor with the Teske, Simpson and Livers to be an upper echelon Big 10 team for sure. If one or more of the DeJulius, Castleton, Johns, Nunez class steps up as well, we could be cooking even before we factor in the freshman.
There is plenty of up-side to last year's freshmen class-and I expect some nice advancement all the way around. But here we are talking about replacing Poole, Iggy and Matthews-from a team that struggled the second half of the season. I put the onus of responsibility for last years struggles and next years performance on the coaching staff. There was and is enough talent here-there is one basketball-if your system is so complicated that these kids struggle...then that is on you. This game is about the simple execution of fundamental principles.
Did we really struggle though?
Sure we couldn't get past MSU, but other than that it was a great season. Fewest losses in the Beilein era. Sweet 16 loss to the eventual NC runner up.
I'd say the team was strong from start to finish, especially given preseason expectations.
The team struggled the second half of the season. They won and lost ugly. In general, they did not play well...expectations do not change this fact.
I do not see where the offense is coming from next year. Livers is going to get the Poole treatment from the opposition and unless somebody else steps up big-time the sledding is going to be rough. You still have to score to win. The optimism of fans does not win games.
Struggled compared to the first half of the season when they were ranked as high as #2, yes.
Struggled in meeting your expectations, perhaps.
Struggled in terms of not being a good team, I'd say not even close to true.
I know this isn’t very likely but imagine a lineup of Simpson, Wilson, Livers, Johns, and Teske. That length and ability to run the floor would be exciting.
Couple things, Hyland technically didn't debut at 60. He was ranked pretty close to top 100 on 247 last year and then dropped and then shot up to 69 (nice) April 15th. He was actually top 100 on the composite for a good chunk of 2018.
Also, Rivals final 2019 rankings come out later today. Bajema and Wilson were ranked 92nd and 43rd in the most recent rankings.
If we can land Cumberland and Franz I would be pretty happy with the 2019 haul. Cumberland and Franz would both figure to garner a lot of minutes at the 2 and 3, respectively and fill some of the void left by Poole and Iggy leaving early.
We would likely not be as good of a team in the pre-season as last year, but if we can get some nice sophomore leaps from a couple of guys from last years class, we could be as good as last year's team by conference play.
If neither Cumberland or Franz come then we will definitely take a dip barring massive improvements by DDJ, Brooks and/or Johns.