WTKA Roundtable 2/2/2023: The Brakes Are Off
Things discussed:
- Cameron Brandt: a Mike Morris guy.
- The upside class? They have some dudes but analysts aren't excited about any of them.
- Is this a blip or is Michigan locked out of 5-stars? Market is still finding its level, but Michigan isn't going to get anywhere if they're not competitive on money.
- Market finding level example: Nyck Harbor, who brings in a "marketing team" that doesn't know what they're doing and try to sell the kid on Oregon and he ends up at South Carolina, where the family admits Michigan was superior on every other point but promised money. Watch these Oregon, A&M, MSU, Miami classes: when money's the only reason you go somewhere somebody else will come along. Process will become less transactional than it is now.
- Can you compete this way? Craig says yes. Seth/Sam say no, you need your JJs and Corums and Edwards and Will Johnsons. You can build an OL, but if you want elite edge rushers, cornerbacks, quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, you have to fight the other teams that pay for evident ability. Michigan can still get elites that the sites miss (Corum, Hutchinson) but you still have to fight OSU about that.
- Igbinosun: Hypothetically if you were making $$ at Ole Miss and Ohio State offers you $$$ that's not a hard decision.
- Jadyn Davis: The guy probably wanted to commit 4 times by now but every time it's like Harbaugh to the NFL, etc. He's just now meeting his new QB coach.
- NIL: Problem with "matching" is schools are straight-up lying to kids about what they're gonna make.
- But also Michigan is still talking about projections when other schools are making promises. Is that against the rules? Of course. Is anyone but Michigan ever going to get investigated for it? Of course not.
- Basketball: Their defense sucks, AND PSU was just making dumb shots. Hard to find motivation now because what are they playing for: If you win a few games you'll make the NIT?
[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment two is here. You can watch the video here:
MGoBlog Roundtable https://t.co/dtfOgewTJ1
— The Michigan Insider (@michiganinsider) February 2, 2023
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The problem is the whole market's full of idiots.
February 2nd, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Good show. Watched on YouTube this morning. Michigan seems to be molasses’s in winter regarding implementing some sort of viable NIL. Let’s hope that changes. It’s getting to the point where it’s all about the Benjamin’s 💰 for MOST kids.
February 2nd, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
Screen cap of Seth looks like how I feel about a bunch of Michigan sports things right now. Thankfully, it isn't BPONE for me.
I'm assuming it's just a never-pause-a-Disney-movie moment. Seth's cheerfulness is an important part of this blog.
February 2nd, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
"and he ends up at South Carolina, where the family admits Michigan was superior on every other point"
IF—I stress IF—
• it's true that South Carolina's track coach has a proven record of success in coaching sprinters
• it's true that Harbor has a good relationship with him
• it's true that South Carolina had a very attractive NIL offer
• it's true that Harbor's girlfriend is attending South Carolina
then I can see how Harbor and/or his family saw South Carolina as an attractive choice, given his obvious track aspirations.
Regarding the claim by some recruits that NIL money isn't a major factor in their recruitment:
It's not the money... it's the amount.
February 2nd, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
If money is the driving force in a decision, a lesson is about to be learned. The transfer portal is going to be crowded for years to come. Seth is correct.
February 2nd, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
You cannot "Beliein" a college football team and I wish that fairytale would go away.
February 2nd, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
I really don't get this ongoing discussion about Michigan being idiots with NIL. They aren't; they're clearly adopting a different approach than some schools but they have a plan. If Harbor has a GF at SC AND they're offering him a ton of money then you're going to lose him to there, and I'm sure the family is going to say that Michigan had everything going for it and blah blah blah. They also had really glowing things to say about SC, so take everything with a grain of salt.
What gets me is UM has a bunch of highly-regarded kids already lined up for 2024 and so either those guys are unicorns who want to attend Michigan despite it being derelict in NIL money and selling instead "the love of the game" or Michigan's approach is what we've heard; we aren't going to pay you to show up but we'll help you get paid once you're here. It's a different sell, and it will work.
What hurt Michigan a good deal in 2023 recruiting seems to be a combination of numerous factors - NIL is part of it, Harbaugh possibly leaving played a role, but so did losing both lead coordinators (including Gattis, who's probably your best recruiter on the staff outside of Moore), some other guys failing to reel in the bigger targets, and situations like "Dante Moore wants to start as a freshman and that ain't happening at UM".
Michigan is not going to be shut out of 5* kids totally but it's not like they've been some magnet for that talent over the past 20+ years. They'll have a subset they can appeal to and it'll be like it always has been; they'll need to hit on some of these guys and also develop those top-200 kids who do sign. That's been the reality of Michigan football for a long time and the idea that Michigan was suddenly going to start being Alabama or OSU in recruiting was always far-fetched.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
For example, I thought the Ohio State approach of starting Haskins over Burrow was probably the smartest thing they ever did.
And then getting to watch the all time most unanimous Heisman national champion end up in Cincinnati and winning at the highest level.
That is some cruel cruel stuff The Ohio State, you might never live that one down. In the case of OSU, what you do with your best recruit is still really important, obviously. Like, you actually need to play them.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
Yeah, sometimes you just make choices; it wasn't like Burrow was some can't-miss prospect out of HS or that Haskins was some bum; Burrow was #280 in the composite and Haskins was 91st and turned out to be a really good QB at OSU and was a first-round pick. You can't predict how kids turn out.
It's also weird how Hutchinson and Corum was treated as some under-the-radar guys; Corum was a top-125 guy and Hutchinson was 112th. With Corum the thing holding him back was his size; nobody expected him to muscle up and become a road-paver. Hutchinson was the #6 SDE in his class and while scouts were somewhat high on him given his motor but there were concerns about his bend and overall athleticism, and in general all saw him becoming a solid college end. The fact he blew up wasn't easily predictable and rarely is it, but he was a Hassan Haskins, Ronnie Bell, or even Ojabo who was a real flyer. He was the top-rated guy in UM's class for a reason.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
Bunch of kids lined up for 2024? Not sure if counts until signing day. Heck it doesn't count until they show up on campus.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
I mean, nothing counts until they sign but this time last year they didn't have much of anything to show for 2023. And beyond that, with the transfer portal I wouldn't bank on a bunch of the kids who signed at any school being there even in a year or two. So grading classes at all on signing day is aways going to be misleading.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Also Michigan's approach is slowly becoming more sellable - both a growing list of either retracted / falsified initial offers (i.e. Jaden Rashada), and "purchased" teams underperforming and not helping players future NFL valuation
It would be smart of UM too to compare estimated 3yr NIL valuations of its players vs the laudy multi million initial deals, which may not pay out or grow where players underperform. Probably hard to get data on this, though
February 2nd, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
If Craig is even remotely correct, the football program is absolutely fucked.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
Why is it so hard to believe that Harbaugh is just a mediocre recruiter who gets mediocre recruiting results? There are plenty of examples that show NIL isn't nearly the problem it gets made out to be to cover for the down class that is the 23 recruiting class
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
Give us a few of these examples. Also everyone knows the 23 class was kneecapped from the start with his NFL adventure and losing both coordinators. Try harder next time.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
You think Will Johnson signed his NIL deal on signing day with no promises being made?
February 2nd, 2023 at 4:52 PM ^
“was kneecapped from the start with his NFL adventure and losing both coordinators”—- you say that like Harbaugh is just completely independent from those two events. Flirting with the NFL and frequently replacing coordinators are things he does that hurt recruiting. They might also be good reasons to do them (at least wrt to cycling coordinators), but they are things he does that hurt recruiting.
I don’t think Harbaugh is a mediocre recruiter, but I don’t think it’s a strength of his. He’s still a good coach.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
Yeah I mean Brady Hoke’s classes were better as well. He just didn’t develop them. Harbaugh is kind of weird so it’s not surprise.
February 2nd, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
Here are the top 20 recruit rankings in M history according to 247:
1. R Gary-Harbaugh
2. J Peppers- Hoke
3. R Mallett -Carr
4. L Woodley- Carr
5. P Burgess- Carr
6. K Baraka- Carr
7. B Graham- Carr
8. D Hill- Harbaugh
9. DPJ - Harbaugh
10. W Johnson- Harbaugh
11. C Henne- Carr
12. E Shazor- Carr
13. K Grady-Carr
14. A Solomon- Harbaugh
15. D Greene- Hoke
16. C Hinton- Harbaugh
17. JJ McCarthy- Harbaugh
18. M Jackson-Carr
19. M Slocum- Carr
20. D Warren- Carr
Other notables: Hoke-Kalis(35),Pipkins(39),Kugler(44),D.Thomas(45)S.Morris(47)
Harbaugh-D.Edwards(25)Bredeson(26)D.Moore(31)C.Ruiz(32)Charbonnet(38) L.Vilain(42)
February 2nd, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
So, based on your past couple of days posts ak, Michigan is an average school, no better or worse than most others (don't quote rankings because they're unreliable, according to you).
Also, Harbaugh is an average recruiter, mediocre in fact, and do use rankings because they're totally reliable?!
Have we more or less grasped where you are on the state of Michigan football recruiting, the university, what Michigan has to offer?
In short, selling the 40-year plan is BS and selling Harbaugh as a coach is worth little. So what, in your not at all humble opinion, is Michigan's selling point? How do you think Michigan should croot top flight players with no obvious connection to Michigan (or in the case of Nyck Harbor, multiple connections to Michigan)?! What's the answer to get Michigan recruiting above "mediocre"?
February 2nd, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
"Also, Harbaugh is an average recruiter, mediocre in fact,"
Mediocre means average.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
Basically Craig thinks that MSU under Dantonio is a thing that Michigan should be aspiring to.
I mean, sure, you can have that opinion. I'm not sure why you would, but you can.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
It’s a really bad argument because it glosses over how Hutch, Dax, Corum, JJ, Edwards, Chris Hinton, Mazi, Will Johnson, etc were crucial in winning B1G titles the last two years. You need a healthy amount of top 150 guys in order to win big consistently and not just be TCU with a Cinderella run. The only top 150 guy in this years class is Enow Etta. We’ve averaged like 5 top 150 guys in each class under Harbaugh. That means there’s roughly ~twenty top 150 guys on the roster at a given time. If 2023 becomes the norm, that means you only have four top 150 guys on the roster. You’re not beating OSU, winning B1G titles, or going to CFPs regularly with that kind of roster.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
Its also just wrong. Michigan historically gets a few 5 stars and certainly a number of guys in the top 50. This is a bad recruiting class by Michigan standards. Michigan is not consistently beating OSU with recruiting classes that look like this year every year
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
The tell that Craig knows it is wrong is that he is arguing against some guys and people saying things. No specifics. Doesn't actually know the recruiting rankings of these guys. Like, it's fine to just not have an opinion on things. Craig knows a lot about college sports. I think we can guarantee that he doesn't know what high school kids are doing, or why they're doing it.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Like we’re supposed to be comforted by the fact that he (a lawyer by profession) really likes the tape of our 2023 recruits. And him acting as if Hutch or Corum were 3* gems we unearthed and not essentially top 100 guys we beat OSU out for.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
Sure, but there's little evidence this is going to be the norm. Last year's class was 12th and it's early but 2024 is 12th as well. Top 8-15 is basically where UM tends to fall in these rankings, and it sure seems like Michigan can hang with OSU consistently with that level of talent.
The big difference between this class and others is UM didn't grab that top-50 kid like they did with Edwards and Johnson. Both those guys were local kids that UM could close on. Had they signed Moore this year then they'd have that 5* kid and a bunch of decently-regarded depth guys who could break out.
February 2nd, 2023 at 5:34 PM ^
Craig seems to think that 5 stars don’t typically have height ceilings, and his support for this is the fact that some five stars have busted at Michigan. Against this is a pretty big pile of data that higher ranked recruits are more likely to start for college teams and play in the NFL.
But Craig also thinks stuff like usage is just a meaningless statistic so maybe that data is more junk to him.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
Sam is speaking out both sides of his mouth and making assumptions about Harbor. First he says NIL wasn't the deciding factor because if that was the case it would have been Oregon but then says it was a major factor in picking SC because Michigan is better across the board.
But Michigan wasn't better across the board. SC's track coach is a sprinting specialist who has worked with multiple Olympic sprinters and coached for USA track. Kevin Sullivan is a middle distance runner and middle distance guy who has not. The rankings of the track teams don't mean anything in this case. On top of that Harbor's girlfriend is going to SC. On top of that maybe Harbor just liked Beamer better than Harbaugh, or whoever the offensive coordinator is at SC over Moore, or any other things that are beyond which team is going to win more games next year.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Sam Webb is a good guy but take him with a grain of salt and realize what his number 1 priority is overall. Generation of clicks and subscribers. That’s not new for that industry. I don’t pay for information but don’t begrudge those that do. Then again I am one who used to go to the local store and buy the Athlon magazine, as a kid back in the early 1980s. Which was outdated to an extent by the time it hit the shelf.
February 2nd, 2023 at 8:34 PM ^
The people who continue to spout this line are hilarious. There are plenty of dudes out there who try and just generate clicks. Most of them are banned from mentioning here. Pretending Sam is like that at all is sad.
February 2nd, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
Small sample and all but if you want to win an NCAAF championship in the playoff era you need a team talent level in the top 10. Classes consistently in the 12-25 range as Sam suggested simply won't get you there regardless of what you do in the portal.
February 2nd, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^
"Michigan was superior on every other point but promised money"
...and the track coach and his experience -
SC head coach is a sprint coach who has coached Olympic sprinters, and been a coach for the Olympic team.
Michigan head coach is distance runner who has coached no Olympians (he was in my tach comm class though).
... and his GF.
February 2nd, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^
Yeah, it's weird to say "Michigan was superior to SC...except they had a better sprint program, had more connections to Olympic coaching, and his GF goes there". So how was the play other Mrs. Lincoln?
February 2nd, 2023 at 1:26 PM ^
"There's a certain disturbed element to fans of the mgoblog roundtable."
-Craig Ross
Got a good chuckle out of this one!
February 2nd, 2023 at 3:23 PM ^
Tired of hearing the talk of why Michigan isn’t going to win recruiting battles when NIL comes into play. It’s uninteresting when it’s the same old bullshit.
Tired of hearing Craig beat the drum that Michigan has beaten Ohio state twice in a row, despite NIL. He’s a smart man, so I don’t understand how he doesn’t realize that most of the players that were on those teams were recruited and showed up before NIL
February 3rd, 2023 at 7:31 AM ^
Yeah, hiring a marketing team is BS. There isn’t a single firm out there that would act on the recruit’s behalf, only self interest. A marketing firm needs the money now so they can hop to the next client and have the funds to pay the bills. A recruit who hires a marketing firm will never come to Michigan.
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