This Week's Obsession: Spring Breakout Player
Not fair comparing Peppers to humans. [Upchurch]
The Question:
Ace: Since there's always at least one: Who do you think becomes this year's Spring Breakout Guy?
-----------------------------------
Alex Cook (hoops beat): Can I answer with Jabrill Peppers? Last year was a complete and unmitigated disaster -- even our best recruit (of the past decade and perhaps longer) went down with an injury and missed pretty much the whole season. It's going to be easy for the national media to forget about him: Peppers didn't make any noise last year -- because of injury -- and Michigan isn't expected to do a whole lot (though we do have Harbaugh, which will be a well-tracked national storyline).
 |
| I like big butts and we cannot lie, when we’re building an offensive line. When a kid walks in with fleet-foot spin, and lower-body weight you get sprung! [Upchurch] |
I'm a True Believer when it comes to Jabrill Peppers, especially after the move to safety, where he can be in the box and play a coverage guy in equal turn. The guy has "future top ten pick" written all over him and I'm guessing we'll hear all about that as spring progresses.
-----------------------------------
Seth: Yeah it'll be Peppers though we've been stoking that flame so long it can't be that much of a surprise when it goes up. So in the spirit of the annual "hey look what we found" of Spring let's go for a surprise candidate.
Logan Tuley-Tillman is what NFL left tackles are supposed to look like at 20 years old. Here's a guy who dropped 20 lbs from high school, then built back 10. He also had a hand injury last year to explain why he couldn't compete with a true freshman.
Brian on Monday mentioned a practice observer said the light went on. When that happens to a guy whose build matches the Michael Oher description from Blind Side, that means a Jake Long is born.
For LTT to crack the starting lineup now would mean he beat out (probably) Magnuson and Braden, two guys with 23 starts between them. Word from practice so far seems to be emphasizing that Cole and Miller are the only two OL from last year's unit who've locked down a job, then peg Cole as maybe moving to guard or RT. Reading between the lines it seems somebody’s job’s under fire from one of underclassmen. It could as well be Dawson—perhaps he can pull?—pushing from behind, since I’ve also read nice things about him coming out of practice, but the Cole thing suggests it’s a tackle who’s upsetting the standard order, and if that tackle was Magnuson we’d be hearing they plan to find a spot for Mags. Fox is still hurt, so that leaves JBB or LTT, and people are talking about the latter.
[Jump for more things Harbaugh makes better]
-----------------------------------
Adam Schnepp (press correspondent, hockey): Lawrence Marshall is human; this qualifies him to compete at WDE for the 2015 Michigan Wolverines. He's also a good football player; this qualifies him to compete to start at WDE.
 |
| Word from practice is that Marshall is carrying most of his muscle in his legs. That may make him serviceable as a pass rusher or standup end, which Durkin likes to use often, but he’s probably not yet big enough to be a 1st/2nd down run stopper. [Fuller] |
With Mario Ojemudia his only competition at the position until Reuben Jones arrives on campus this fall, Marshall was going to get playing time. What he can do with that time remains relatively unknown considering he redshirted 2014, but the aforementioned practice reports have been bullish. The coaching staff is shuttling him between WDE and Buck LB, which indicates that they see ways to utilize his athleticism and edge-rushing ability in a 4-3 and 3-4. One of the knocks on Marshall at the time of his commitment, as with almost any high school DE, was his technique; I'd be surprised if that remains an issue with the new coaching staff.
-----------------------------------
BiSB (funny person, legal beat):
"Lo, and the clouds parted, and the Harbaugh did speak unto his chosen people, the Tight Endians. And the Tight Endians were awash in targets. And they said that it was good." ~ Jim 3:16
Jabrill Peppers is the correct answer, because of course it is, but I don't think anyone will make the kind of leap in the Michigan Zeitgeist like Ian Bunting. If you watch Jerry Hanlon's breakdown with The Wolverine of some of Harbaugh Orange Bowl, you can see the role a 'matchup nightmare' style tight end can play in this offense. It isn't even that Harbaugh's offenses get tight ends matched up on safeties or linebackers. Every offense can do that. It's that his offenses get tight ends on safeties and linebackers who are often pushed up on the line of scrimmage, and whose first seven thoughts on any given play are OMG GAP MUST STAY HOME OR MY VILLAGE IS LOST. Get a guy with some size and speed who can take advantage of the extra step the offense gives him, and baby you've got yourself a stew going.
Ian Bunting is 6'7 and 243 pounds, wears XXXXL gloves and runs a 40 in somewhere from the 4.6 to 4.7 range. THAT is a matchup nightmare. Jake Butt will remain a more complete all-around tight end, and Khalid Hill may even stay ahead of Bunting on the depth chart, but Harbaugh loves him some tight ends, Bunting will do SOMETHING in the spring game in which you will watch this assemblage of impossible limbs wheeling cartoon-fight-cloud-like through the secondary, and you will be whisked away to an alternate universe where Devin Funchess put on some weight, learned to block a guy or two, and became Jimmy Graham. And it will make you sad. But the Bunting thing will make you happy. So just be happy.
-----------------------------------
Brian: My guy is Bunting, at least in the "this man will be hyped a lot and then not really play as much as you might think" sense, a la Canteen last year. I bet a dollar he's a year away from being Harbaugh-worthy in the blocking department, but once you see him wandering around out there palming former Soviet republics like they're superballs everyone will be like dang.
 |
| Harbaugh likes tight ends, and Bunting is an extant tight end. He’s also too tall to be captured by most smart phone cameras. |
My other guy because I need another guy so I'm just not repeating things people have already said is... Ty Isaac. Michigan is looking for a savior in the run game, and a five-star USC transfer looks like it might just fit the bill. I'm a little concerned about Isaac's height and the fact that his high school tape featured his team paving him a yellow brick road all the way to Touchdown City, but he is definitely going to be hyped to the moon what with the disappointment washing over the current group. Finding the hole and running through it fast would be wonderful. I wonder what Michigan's run game would have felt like last year with Mike Hart in the backfield. I think it might have been kind of good.
A side advantage Isaac has: with his frame and catching skills (the best part of his tape was a series of circus catches) Harbaugh is going to love the flexibility that gives him. Harbaugh does the LOOK IT'S FIVE WIDE (until we motion into a big set) thing. Isaac's receiving skills play into that most excellently.
-----------------------------------
Ace: Michigan boasts a lot of depth and quite a bit of talent at receiver, which tends to be a position that gets a lot of attention in spring ball. (Hi, Freddy Canteen!) I'll admit that the first couple answers that came to mind have been taken—Bunting and LTT, though I didn't consider Peppers for this—but I'm still surprised neither Drake Harris nor Moe Ways has been mentioned.
If his hamstrings cooperate, Harris has the potential to break into the starting lineup and perhaps even become the #1 target. Much of the hype on him has worn off after he missed most of his senior season and then took an injury-induced redshirt in 2014, but other than missed practice time he shouldn't be limited by the past injuries—and the last time he wasn't limited he looked like Skinny Braylon. Michigan could use a true deep threat; Harris may very well be that guy.
 |
| Drake Harris (above) or Mo Ways or maybe Canteen again: some receiver has to pop out this year. [Fuller] |
Ways, meanwhile, has NFL size at 6'4", 205, and very well could've played as a true freshman last year if Michigan didn't have the depth they did at receiver. He took a significant step forward between his junior and senior seasons in high school. A similar leap this year is by no means out of the question, and that would put him right in line for playing time.
I think one of these guys has a big-time Spring Game performance that gets the hype train rolling. If I had to guess, I'd say Harris is that guy, if for no other reason than he's a much different receiver than the others on the roster. (Ways and Amara Darboh aren't too different stylistically, which could make it harder for Ways to move into a bigger role.)
-----------------------------------
David Nasternak (operations): Imma go Offense then Defense.
Ace talked a little about Moe Ways. First, his NFL build. 6'4" puts him at Hemingway +3 inches. Second, seeing him at a couple of the practices, last summer, showed me a couple things. I thought he caught balls away from his body extremely well and he made some of those same catches in tight coverage. Granted, those days are a small sample size, but it started to build to the evidence that the potential is there. While Drake Harris's ceiling might be a little bit higher overall, I think this off-season is a huge opportunity for Ways. His size on the outside is something that Michigan doesn't have, outside of Bunting (who could be used in a myriad of other modes). Harris is still rather thin, so I might give the bump to Ways in 2015. Thankfully, his 2014 redshirt was not burned, so we will still have 4 Moe years. Also...how many headlines can we make with THAT name???
On Defense...I thought about this one for a while and almost went a couple of different directions. My guy is Ben Gedeon. Now, I'm not saying that he will start immediately, but I wouldn't be shocked if he pushed a starter throughout the year. Gedeon seemed advanced and borderline ready for action since he stepped on the field. We all say that the one thing we can never blame Hoke for is his recruiting...and I think that Gedeon has a chance to be Hoke's 2nd (Morgan, b/c of consistent playing time for 4 years) best LB recruit. I think the only thing that will keep him away from seeing major minutes is Morgan's 5th year -not a bad thing, by any means. Add Ben Gedeon to the list of guys it would have been REALLY nice to have redshirted...sigh.
-----------------------------------
Seth: Count me a skeptic on Drake Harris for this year, and at the very least this spring. Those hamstring problems have set him back a ways, and I’m guessing the coaching staff isn’t going to push him until he’s had more time to heal and actually start a collegiate weight program. Brian’s not kidding about “rail thin.” He’s a good pick maybe for 2016, or 2017 when Darboh and Chesson are no longer around. Harris though hasn’t been able to run routes or gain strength. Better to pump the brakes on expectations for him now and save the hype for when it’s got a more realistic chance of showing.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Either the guy who has locked down a job is REALLY good, or everyone else kind of sucks.
Here's hoping it's the former.
I also think that with Harbaugh the "job" will mean that you're on the 1st team depth chart come fall camp - not anything about what will happen for game #1
My Ty Isaac excitement is rising exponentially...so glad he's finally eligible.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
I believe it is Ways that is over 200 pounds.
Wait, aren't Darboh & Chesson RS Jr's this coming season?
yes. reworded.
Ok, honest question here...
Why doesn't Taco play WDE? He seems too tall to hold proper leverage against the run at SDE and fight double teams. With his speed and athleticism I think he would be a no brainer to have at WDE, its like a bigger version of Ojemida, size is good right? Is it because he is not as laterally quick as the other WDE's? Ideally I'd like to see Taco and Marshall at WDE, Wormley and Poggi at SDE, maybe even Hurst, and then the usual beef up the middle...
would be in a 5 right? Hence fighting double teams and stopping the run. The WDE should be in a 5 also, holding the edge on the other side, with the overhang guy in a 7 on the strong side? Is that right? I need to draw this up, got too many cobwebs in my brain this morning.
If a team loves using an in-line TE, you can play three interior guys with one in the 5T. If they play an H-Back or 10 personnel, you can keep Taco at 5T or play more Over fronts in your nickel package. From a personnel or match-up standpoint, I don't think it's a huge issue. And while I think Taco is nominally a guy you don't want on the interior, I don't think he's such a bad fit in that situation where you need him off the field. Just depends on the situation.
And unless Mario is essentially a standup DE, I don't think he has the lateral ability to be a true overhang OLB. He's more of a straight line player, so moving him to that position, again, unless he's nominally rushing the passer and holding the edge anyway, I don't think is a good fit for him.
This is how I know you are legit SC. Not a lot of people know/use that terminology. You da man, as usual!
The goal is to get the best guys on the field. Putting Charlton at WDE probably means booting Ojemudia off the field or putting him at SDE at about 253 lbs. (IIRC). Height doesn't matter as much as having the ability to play low, and Charlton has shown flashes of being able to do that.
You would move Ojemida to an overhang position in a two point. The best guys IMO are Wormley, Taco, Mone, and Henry. Move Ojemida to an OLB hybrid with RJS. Ojemida has nooo business playing strong side.
You've got two guys who well over 300 lbs. (Mone, Henry), one guy who is 300 lbs. (Wormley), and another who is 275 lbs. (Charlton). For a defense that's going to be a hybrid 3-4/4-3, that's an awful lot of beef. If you make Ojemudia play OLB, you've got 5 defensive linemen by trade and then only two true linebackers. Meanwhile, Michigan has 4 senior linebackers and a junior who probably needs to be on the field quite a bit (Gedeon). How do you find playing time for those 5 linebackers when you open up just two spots?
I guess its a good problem to have (insert hokes lack of redshirting comments here).
You are supposed to have more beef when running a 3 man front, no?
The linemen are generally larger in a three-man front (at least in a 3-4), but the lineup you suggested above is just too much. College defenses generally just don't have enough athletic 300-pounders to play all three spots on the defensive line, and assuming those three guys are Wormley, Henry, and Mone, you've got a 275 lb. OLB in Charlton and a 253 lb. OLB in Ojemudia. It would be great if all those guys have enough versatility to get the job done, but I find that doubtful. I also think that would hurt the second unit, because there's nobody comparable to spell some of those guys. And like I said, meanwhile, you've got (just choosing at random) Morgan and Gedeon on the field while Ross, Bolden, and Jenkins-Stone wasting away on the bench.
Personally, I don't think Wormley has shown enough to be a starter. He's not someone who needs to get on the field playing starter's minutes. He's more of a guy who should be playing 3-tech in your four-man fronts or spelling somebody as a 3-4 DE.
I listed are VERY athletic, well maybe not Mone, perhaps athletic in a different manner. I'd say that it would be hard to find 3 300 pounders more athletic that Henry, Wormley, and Taco, those guys are freaks and can MOVE. Throw Hurst in there too. Hurst, Poggi, Strobel, Pipkins, Glasgow, and Goddin are all big enough to spell those guys if that is the route you choose to go.
Regarding the LBs, I though I read somewhere that Durkin could have 5 guys standing up in different alignments at some point. Even if you go with 4 LBs you gotta go with Morgan, Gedeon, Ross (move to Sam killed him last year, perfect at WILL granted OLB in a 3-4 is a lot different) and whoever else you choose.
Regardless, there will be lots of situational subs I'm sure...
he's a walkon? You're not the only one here moving him way down the depth chart. Based on what he did last year, I think he'll be hard to displace. Given his late start in football, I might even expect him to show more than a normal amount of improvement.
I thought he was our best d-lineman last year. I'd like to see what the opponents' YPC stats were with him in and out of the game.
Spring practice just started a week or two ago. It would be more reasonable to say that its too early to pick breakout players, not too late.
Also, and I'm speaking personally here but I doubt I'm alone, I don't care if other sites have already picked breakout players. I don't go to those sites. I go to this one. I come here because, out of all of the sports blogs on the internet, I value this one the most. I'm here to read about Brian's, Ace's, Seth's, BiSB's, Dave's, Adam's, and Alex's thoughts on Michigan athletics. The timing of their posted thoughts doesn't matter to me, as long as the insight is theirs.
Since there's only been 1 padded practice, and more importantly zero reports of anyone breaking out...No. It's not too late.
The more I read about Spring the more I get pumped for the potential of this team. I think Jim should be grateful for the full cupboard Brady left him. There's size at skill at every position with WDE really the only big question mark. I like the continuity and experience on the defensive side of the ball and I think this offense finally has a chance to be legit. It really seems like the pieces are there and Harbaugh just needs to find and groom a QB. Please, please, please will one of these QB's step up and play like a legit division one football player. Please.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
I agree, but in Harbaugh we trust. I feel as though the numbers and potential are there. Harbaugh just needs to do his thing. I'm sure he takes great pride in coaching that position and I don't think failure's really an option. One of them will produce.
I hope a pass rush terror emerges and one or two WR threats. Also, seen a Lorenz tweet about the possibility of Chase Winovich playing on offense (TE/H-back) or maybe working out there? Anyone hear of this?
Nice meeting you fellas! “@calebellens: Future starting TE/FB at Michigan #NationalChampionship #GoBlue #naplesfl pic.twitter.com/EZmZSsheuj”
— Chase Winovich (@CCWino58) March 3, 2015
Was this a position change that I missed?
I'm not too concerned about pass rush, because our secondary is shaping up to be pretty darn good. Sacks are exciting, but it's possible to read too much into them. Some college players generate a ton of sacks but do so by playing undiscipined defense; we don't want to give that up. Don't get me wrong; it'd be nice to have a pass rusher who wreaks havoc, but I'd be fine without one if the defense still manages to not make anything easy.
The plays that turn my hair grey are the ones where the pass rush is so feeble that the QB just sits back and waits for a receiver to break open -- then we can talk about pass rush. But when it comes to pass defense, I prefer to see a QB run out of options more than run out of time. I've seen sacks followed up by 20-yard conversions because the OC found which zone was being vacated on the blitz or which player abandoned his assignment or whatever. But it's really fun to see a QB check his first target, covered, second target, covered, look to run, gaps filled and edges held, then the DTs start to break free so they make that "WTF do I do now" head-wiggle before throwing it away. That tells me, and the QB, that the defense wasn't overplaying or taking risks yet the offense might as well have just spiked the ball.
We're thin at DE so I wouldn't hold out hope we discover a terrorizing pass rush by September. But if we at least get a disciplined D-line and the back seven shape up the way I expect, we CAN shut down QBs with what we have. It'll look different but it's no less demoralizing to opponents.
I hope a pass rush terror emerges.
Maybe for 2015 but we need every viable body ready for LB In 2016 when Bolden, Ross, Morgan, (and RJS) leave.
I'm stoked to watch Moe Ways. He has exceptional hands, great size and really good speed. We have been lacking guys that get good separation. Darboh, Ways and Canteen will be our starting 3 WR's come Utah. My Spring prediction
I believe Jim 3:16 is "For Jim so loved Ann Arbor, he gave the team his one and only NFL coaching career, that those who stay shall not perish, but shall be champions."
I don't know if he has the pure mass to play inside at this point (he certainly didn't last year), but his skill set, once he gets bigger, may make him a better interior player for Harbaugh that can move and pull and all those things, rather than an OT. He proved too good to keep off the field last year, but I think his eventual fit may have been inside anyway, and that may only become more true under Harbaugh.
If LTT is in fact coming around, he'll be responsible for a lot of crushing down blocks and kick blocks and not have to move as much in space in the run game. In pass pro he's protected quite a bit by play action and the extensive use of TEs. Obviously, you still need some footwork ability to hold down the blind side, but if LTT understands run blocking and has technique, his (assuming, at least relative to Cole) pass pro issues could be mitigated and Cole could find a home inside.
I personally think LTT is more of a RT mold. But Stanford has pretty much been playing RTs at LT consistently because, screw it, we're gonna run Power and you're going to be afraid when we do.
Wasn't Brian's LTT "practice observer" the OC last year? I thought that's what he and Sam discussed last week. I'm pretty sure it was Nuss observing LTT in practice.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
That and I know a guy at the practices. He posted here before and got in trouble but I find places to leak that which he offered for leaking.
early and there have been zero reports about anybody breaking out.
"Moe Ways than Won!"
<iframe src="//giphy.com/embed/G3brmwboFT3m8" width="480" height="292" frameBorder="0" webkitAllowFullScreen mozallowfullscreen allowFullScreen></iframe>
If he's rail-thin there's the issue of durability, but I think it's more a concern with run blocking. Weight isn't everything in the backfield (just ask Jeremy Gallon), but lanky guys generally aren't good blockers, and Michigan likes them run-blocking WRs. Funchess had the size, if not the inclination. Otherwise I think there's a breaking point where a "skinny burner" needs to really take the top off a defense to stay on the field if he's a liability on 50-60% of the plays.
Meaning, assuming he's a non-factor on run plays, if as a deep threat he basically only justifies the presence of a deep safety, it's back to the gym for Drake. If the guy's such a terror that the defense panics into bracketing him every time he runs a post route, fine, because that's every bit as good as throwing the CB into the turf. Is Harris that guy? I dunno, I'm just saying if he wants to see the field at his current weight, that's what he needs to be -- a DC-terrorizing, true playmaking deep threat.
I think we agree; I just want to emphasize he REALLY needs to be that guy. Almost every offense incorporates the deep threat into their playbook, at least in concept. They don't run go routes all day, but the other stuff (hitches, outs, etc.) are changeups to the ever-constant threat that the guy will just fly downfield.
But while every OC wants a guy who can "take the top off a defense", if the guy can't get behind the free safety with consistency, you've got a "deep threat" that doesn't challenge the integrity of the base defense. The defense won't have to take their DBs out of the run game as long as they make the correct reads. That the WR might run a deep route really doesn't psyche them out of that.
By "breaking point" I mean a crappy blocking receiver needs to literally break the defense. So yeah, we're talking about a Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson type that needs to be double-teamed on every play just to prevent free TDs. Then it doesn't matter if he's the worst blocker in the world because the defense has to play him so tight the DB run fits are useless. But that means Harris is a rare bird, and while I think he could be good, I won't expect that much from him because we're talking once-a-decade talent.
I tend to disagree with the notion that "Michigan isn't expected to do much this year," we return more experience than Brady Hoke's first season and we won a BCS bowl. Harbaugh has 6 months to find a QB and we should be ready for take off.
Thing is, Borges adapted his scheme to make some use of Denard, even if it was far more frustrating than RichRod's wide-open spread. Borges was, for better or worse, a "win now" OC who'd debut tackle over to steamroll Minnesota then have no tricks left in the bag against Michigan State. So with Mattison fixing the defense, some lucky breaks (our fumble recovery rate that season was unreal) and RichRod leaving behind a mature offense for Borges to play with, everything came together in 2011. The problem was that Borges mortgaged his long-term plans to win the next game, and that eventually cost him his job. When Nuss arrived the offense was in terrible shape.
Early reports are that Harbaugh is taking the opposite approach and implementing his system from day one. This isn't the rebuilding project that was Stanford, and it's not like these guys haven't run Power before, but there will be some growing pains. How far we go depends in large part on how smoothly those kinks get worked out. I think Harbaugh is willing to lose a few early games if it's necessary to build sustained success, the question is whether or not that'll actually be necessary. I don't know.
Comments