Too soon to dance? [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

This Week's Obsession: Early Hoops Takes Comment Count

Seth November 30th, 2020 at 3:23 PM

LET’S RUN THROUGH THE ROTATION. WHAT ARE YOUR EARLY IMPRESSIONS OF PLAYER X THROUGH TWO GAMES?

Brian: I miss player X. Or Z, whatever.

Ace: Missed him a little more after Sunday’s game, too.

Anyway!

ISAIAH LIVERS

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Having a real good time. [Campredon]

Matt EM: Looks to be healthy, moving better than last year, particularly on the defensive end.

Brian: Seems like the same guy, more or less, as the healthy version but is statistically off the charts right now.

I don't think that PNR snake is really going to be a thing long-term.

Seth: I'd love to know which American Choppers meme he and Juwan were reenacting.

Ace: Yeah, that was very exciting and then he lost his handle not long thereafter for a turnover. Still, incredible shooter to have on the team, and he’s come up with some huge defensive plays. Two recoveries for blocks against Oakland that they needed badly.

Brian: Has had a few of those out of position on-ball blocks that indicate he's back to be a really good defender.

Ace: Jinx.

Matt EM: If he caps out as a 40% shooter from distance with the ability to defend 2-3 positions, that will do it for me.

Ace: That almost feels like his floor when he’s healthy.

Brian: Has gone from 21% of shots while on court to 27%, would love to see that stick.

Ace: Since people are still talking about it: I liked seeing him pissed off when the team was playing like ass against Oakland. I’d have been more worried if he wasn’t pissed off.

[Hit THE JUMP for snapshots and shots]

FRANZ WAGNER

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Gonna make this happen. [Campredon]

Ace: I might be sneaking him in here to get this over with for now.

Matt EM: One word: disruptive.

Seth: Six open three attempts, zero made threes. Definitely time to panic.

Matt EM: He hasn't got it going yet on offense, but the improved lateral agility + length likely makes him one of the 5 best wing defenders in the B10.

Brian: I think it would really help him if he started cutting like Livers, especially if Dickinson is on the floor a lot. He's a huge target and Dickinson is an A+ passer. On ball offense obviously not where we wanted it to be, but just one game against a man to man defense--he's never going to be the kind of guy to dribble penetrate against a zone efficiently.

Ace: The two-point percentage is good but mostly coming off the same rip-and-go stuff he did last year. He hasn’t been the pick-and-roll creator I was certainly hoping/expecting he’d become this year, and that five-turnover Oakland outing was rough. That said, he’s going to come around at some point. As Brian said, Dickinson really opens up the offense as a creator and he should be able to play off of that.

Matt EM: He's at his best offensively when he can get the ball on the move. The lack of vision + change of direction may limit him to more of a secondary option in the offense.

Ace: Playing a heavy zone team in game two makes some of this early evaluation difficult.

Brian: It has been fun to see him get matched up against guards and watch those guards go "what the hell am I supposed to do with the frickin' kraken?"

Matt EM: I'm with Brian in that I think Franz may be better utilized getting the ball in the elbows or post-ups vs smaller players

Brian: That duck-in against BGSU looked impossible to stop.

Seth: I was being sarcastic re: shooting but there were a couple of those against Oakland which made me wonder if growing a couple more inches in the last year has messed with his shot.

Brian: Radical muscle gain may also make it difficult to judge distance, but I'm concerned.

Ace: I’m holding off on concern for now. His shots aren’t missing by much. Michigan’s misses and Oakland’s misses from deep looked very, very different.

ELI BROOKS

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Our concern dude. [Campredon]

Ace: This is the player I’m most concerned about from the Oakland game. Brooks kept throwing lazy passes directly to defenders.

Brian: Hummel was all over the lack of ball fakes from him and others, but mostly him.

Seth: If Michigan's got an unsolveable problem this year it's that neither Smith nor Brooks is a complete point guard. In Eli's case he doesn't seem to see the court well enough to be the creator.

Matt EM: Solid second option to Smith as shot-creator in ballscreen action, his lack of agility + size has hindered him on the defensive end in particular.

Ace: Which is particularly worrisome for Brooks because his key to staying in the starting lineup is defense.

He’s been good enough on that end throughout his career that I expect he’ll bounce back as a defender but that might not keep him in the best five.

Matt EM: He's a "try-hard" guy that is superb at applying backside pressure in PnR, but can struggle in isolation. The first two opponents have recognized that and I'd expect that to be more common moving forward.

Brian: We should do Dickinson next because my take on so many of Michigan's players is they need Dickinson to create shots and allow them to thrive off ball and after rotations.

Brooks is foremost among them.

HUNTER DICKINSON

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Humans are so puny. [Campredon]

Brian: Ethan Happ offense ho.

Ace: Hello.

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Matt EM: Magic Dickinson!

Ace: Is there some noise in there? Perhaps. Is Dickinson clearly the best center Michigan has had in a while? Yup.

Seth: Everything you people taught me about freshman bigs is wrong and I can't trust you anymore.

Ace: I’m not saying he’s already better than junior Teske but he might get there by the end of his freshman year.

Brian: I mean, he is 20 already. Beard game on point. At least the 1B focal hub of offense.Ace: As we mentioned on the pod, he’s slimmed down from high school and looks more athletic.

Matt EM: Don't think there's any question he should be the primary option in half-court sets. Can consistently create for himself and others.

Seth: Is it possible that we're overrating two games against teams that have nobody within five inches of him?

Ace: That passing ability is largely opponent-independent. He’s also 7'2, those won’t be the only teams with size issues against him.

Matt EM: Agreed - the finishing is something that my change with the opponent.

Brian: Yeah the negative scenario for Dickinson is that Kofi Cockburn can handle him 1v1 and his passing is largely moot.

Seth: It's just...I watch Michigan sports (for a living! life choices!) so I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop here.

Ace: Can we keep the football stuff out of the basketball stuff? We’re going on a full decade of the basketball team being a huge bright spot.

Brian: I'm not sure there are many great post defenders in the league this year. Watkins, Sticks, Tillman, Haarms, Wesson: all gone. Garza: Garza. You've got Trayce Jackson-Davis, the Badger duo, and Cockburn.

Ace: There are going to be some ups and downs but Dickinson is the most talented post player they’ve had in a long, long time. One thing we haven’t mentioned yet is he’s got a variety of post moves already, looks to attack, and finishes with force. That’s not the case for a lot of big guys.

Matt EM: If nothing else, Dickinson sucks out the opposition's biggest player in Horns sets, basically providing spacing for guys like Johns/Franz to duck in without much resistance.

Brian: And he shoots FTs.

Ace: Yeah, that gravity is going to be there. Michigan’s looks from three have been so good when he’s on the floor.

Brian: Yeah we often dismiss 3P% on/off splits as random noise. There is some noise in Dickinson's numbers but that gap is not entirely random.

Seth: If anything it's underrating him because of the open misses.

Brian: Uh... 56% from 3 is probably not underrating his passing ability.

Ace: Yeah, people occasionally miss the open ones. He’s creating a ton of them so there’s reason to believe in the three-point uptick, just not quite that much. What an exciting player to have, though.

CHAUNDEE BROWN

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Thicc Charles Matthews? [Campredon]

Matt EM: An absolute ball-hawking defender at the point of attack.

Brian: Probably shouldn't have 17 threes and 5 twos.

Seth: Speaking of unreasonable fan three-pointer expectations, he Did Not maintain a 5/7 ratio.

Matt EM: Quality looks and quality shots for the most part.

Seth: One thing I loved from the Oakland game was he made one big mistake falling of a shooter and the next possession he ended himself.

Ace: He took a very interesting path to 35% from deep but that’s pretty good overall. He’s taking good shots.

Brian: A couple of his misses against Oakland were halfway down, I think he's going to be a fine shooter. But he's been outstanding on cuts and attacking closeouts at Wake and should endeavor to recapture that (cough dickinson cough).

Matt EM: If he's able to maintain 35% while having the ability to defend 3 positions, he's going to play 30ish minutes per game.

Ace: We’re going to have a play where three wings see an opening and all bash into each other trying to get a free dunk from Dickinson.

Seth: The thing about Brown is when that happens the 6'10" wing is the one going thunk. I mean Chaundee is a strong dude.

Ace: He’s such an intriguing player. As you alluded to, he’s dense at 6'5, and yet he still moves like a much smaller player on defense.

Brian: I think the team kind of got panicked in the Oakland game so this isn't a huge concern but helping off their sniper unnecessarily points to a team that's got to get on the same page on defense.

Ace: I thought that was one bad play that helped display how solid this team has been in general on that end when they’re playing the right center. I haven’t noticed many poor on-the-fly choices like that.

Brian: They've had a number of over-helps from Dickinson leading to OREBs and then a number of straight line drives that don't draw help. Lot of pointing and late-ish perimeter switches.

Ace: I meant the wing defenders holding down the perimeter against shooters, for the most part. Dickinson’s youth is the source of some of those mistakes.

Seth: I think some of the defensive issues go back to the next guy we're going to talk about.

Ace: I believe Seth means…

MIKE SMITH

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Doing unto others as they do unto ye. [Campredon]

Ace: …who’s driving a lot of play for both teams right now.

Brian: Braids lead to foul trouble. Let the flow fly young man.

Ace: In fairness, absolute bullshit foul on his fourth against Oakland, that was awful.

Matt EM: On the bright side, he's our best shot-creator in ball screen action by a wide margin.

Ace: Sample sizes and all but look at the two-point percentages on both ends.

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Brian: Also the turnover rates.

Ace: Yeah.

Seth: He's every bit the offensive maestro that Simpson was plus he has a shot. But his defensive work goes beyond size limitations.

Matt EM: He had a botched switch late vs Oakland that was a head-scratcher for sure.

Ace: Defensive shortcomings established, I still believe he’s been the best option at point guard. Some of the noise in there is from foul trouble preventing him from playing with Dickinson for a lot of the Oakland game. He’s great in transition and created three great looks in the beginning of the second half by just pushing the pace like hell.

Seth: I know we're not supposed to be mentioning football, but Oakland's zone was a Mark Dantonio July Drive(TM). Michigan clearly wasn't prepared for their opponent to switch up their defense.

Brian: Yeah, and Dickinson inexplicably sat for the first nine minutes of the second half.

Ace: That was… frustrating.

Matt EM: Don't think there's any question Smith is the guy we want to have the ball. I think the bigger question is can we play both Smith + Brooks at the same time for large stretches? Or does Dickinson alleviate those issues to a certain extent?

Seth: GOTTA EARN IT FRESHMAN. [freshman earns it]. GOTTA...well dammit.

Ace: Dickinson being an ent at the rim hopefully makes Smith more playable.

Brian: I think you stagger your subs to have one of Smith or Dickinson on the court at all times, foul trouble permitting.

Ace: Having both point guards on the court at the same time feels like a waste of the wings. Also Brandon Johns.

Brian: Yeah especially since Brown and maybe Wagner can handle most twos.

BRANDON JOHNS

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More time on the floor please. [Campredon]

Matt EM: His passing has been a pleasant surprise.

Ace: Finishing with confidence, too. He’s just been squeezed out of playing time more than I expected.

Seth: Foul trouble was the only reason we weren't as excited about him in the first game. I kinda want to see him pass Big Country as well.

Matt EM: He's been impressive getting the ball on the move as well. The sudden change of direction vs Oakland in transition was something he didn't appear capable of doing last season

Ace: He’s had a couple really nice rip-and-go finishes.

Brian: Yeah, I think he should get a look as the primary backup 5 in a lot of situations and then Michigan should push Brooks down to the 1 to open up some more minutes at the 4 for him.

Ace: He hasn’t had the chance to play next to Dickinson a lot yet but I could see a lot of dunks coming from that pairing. Being the primary backup at center could limit that, though.

Matt EM: Against stretch 5s/more agile bigs, Johns seems like the natural option defensively.

Ace: Yes, and they’ve played him there a decent amount when they’ve had the chance. Those lineups are switchable at least 2-5.

Seth: And Ace you mentioned the confidence thing. Keeping Johns feeling like he has god powers is the kind of long-term goal that could pay off huge dividends later in the year.

Brian: The brief switch-everything stretch against Oakland looked like it could be extremely frustrating for opponents. Iso ball against the PG is the main weak point.

Ace: It’s a very limited sample but lineups with Johns at center have given up 0.82 PPP and 33% shooting on twos.

Seth: Johns has a flair for offensive boards than nobody else on the team (so far...Williams might get there) possesses. Add that to the Dickinson lineup and it's going to be hard to get Michigan out of the offensive end.

TERRANCE WILLIAMS

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Brrrrrrrrrmccchhmmmbrrrrrrrrrroooom! [Campredon]

Matt EM: Motor

Ace: He plays with juice, that’s for sure. The AAU ball connection with Dickinson is also apparent.

Brian: Jae'Sean Tate comparisons dead on so far.

Matt EM: His high-low entry passes have been very good as well.

Ace: When not thrown in at center for his first college minutes, he’s shown a nice feel for the game.

Matt EM: Feels like we're experimenting with him on defense to see where he's best utilized.

Seth: Dickinson is screwing with my freshman forwards calibration but I'm pretty sure Williams is exactly what you want a freshman to look in his first few games. Game already starting slowing down for him in the 2nd half against Oakland.

(Hit your free throws kid).

Ace: He’s still a little lost on defense and getting used to not being able to overpower everyone. That adjustment will come with time. On this team, though, he should play all his minutes at power forward.

Brian: FWIW, he was 29/35 from the line in 10 AAU games in 2018-19. So probably not a problem FT shooter. /shakes fist at lack of real high school basketball stats.

AUSTIN DAVIS

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Indelicate. [Campredon]

Brian: Should have the same role he had last year: situational offensive sub.

Ace: I know everyone is down on Big Country relative to Dickinson but there’s no shame in that. He’s still a bucket down low. But, yes, his best role is 5-10 minutes with his matchup handpicked.

Matt EM: Still holds value in that you can dump the ball to him on the block and he can get a bucket

Brian: The Giorgi demolisher.

Seth: I also want him studying every foul ever called on Luka Garza (there are like four) and learning to replicate them.

ZEB JACKSON

Brian: Really wild so far, doesn't look like he's ready to chip in much this year. Has work to do defensively.

Ace: We’ve reached the fringe of the rotation and he’s clearly still getting his feet on defense but his size and bounciness are gonna be fun. I really wish Brooks had thrown a catchable lob.

Brian: Yeah throwing an oop to your nominal point guard is fun.

Seth: Ace I think you pointed out in your pod that he wasn't pulled when he shot a contested three so he's got the green light. I'm still high on him as a guy who progresses as the season does, has a game where he's a shooter off the bench, and makes a couple of plays that portend big things.

Ace: Recorded two assists against Oakland, so there might be something to look into later with him running the offense, too.

Brian: I think he's had a hesitancy to shoot open looks so far, though.

Ace: Yes, his usage is 6%. He’s moving the ball around and getting a feel for where he should be.

Brian: He definitely could have pulled the trigger on about 3 threes. Hopefully that's more uncertainty than an indicator about his shooting.

Matt EM: Love the long-term defensive potential with size/length/athleticism

Ace: Jumps high, passing vision should be a plus, ask about everything else later.

Comments

SanDiegoWolverine

November 30th, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^

Not sure what Matt is talking about RE Wagner. He had been blown by time and time again on defense. His lateral ability looks worse if anything. He's relying on his long asthma to challenge once he gets blown by.

SanDiegoWolverine

November 30th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^

The first possession of the compilation where he blocks the shot he gets blown by first. There's some other ones that are not clipped for obvious reasons. I just don't think he can hang with most guards and you see a lot of college teams run out 3 and 4 guard lineups. Any guard who is a better finisher or can dish in traffic will give him trouble. Also, guards can slow down to draw the foul once they beat him off the dribble a la Chris Paul.

Just something to watch going forward. He does have very active hands and good defensive instincts though.

Matt EM

November 30th, 2020 at 4:12 PM ^

I absolutely agree with you that an NBA level guard is going to blow-by Franz, he's not an elite athlete by any means. But reality is that college basketball is downright awful right now in terms of talent, and there just aren't many elite prospect with those abilities. He beat Justin Turner to the spot on multiple occasions and he most definitely could've gone to nearly any program in the country had he chosen to do so.

Is he going to be a wing-stopper at the NBA level, not even close. Is he going to be a top 5 wing defender in the B10, I think that's almost certain. Other than Ayo, I just don't think there are many players in the B10 that have the ability to blow-by Franz considering his lateral agility + length. Just my two cents. 

SamGoBlue2

December 1st, 2020 at 6:45 PM ^

Is there a reason you write for a college sports blog covering basketball specifically and yet constantly shit on college basketball?

Obviously the NBA has the most talented players on a pound-for-pound basis in the world. That doesn't mean that college basketball players are absolute garbage as you assert every time you comment on the state of the basketball world.

TrueBlue2003

November 30th, 2020 at 6:52 PM ^

I'd be interested to see his defense charted play by play.  I admit that I didn't watch all of the first two games but the parts I watched, he was getting torched and it looked like his added weight had actually sapped some of his already limited lateral quickness.  He looks good in these clips but highlight vids are just that: highlights.  Would be interesting to get the full picture.

He is certainly disruptive because of his length so he gets blocks and steals but he still appears to be stuck in mud on a lot of plays when trying to defend on the perimeter.  Michigan is not defending well as a team and he looked to be one of the primary culprits on the plays I've seen.

Teeba

November 30th, 2020 at 4:28 PM ^

Y’all are way too down on Eli. He was +14 against Oakland in 41 minutes. That’s not just because he benefited from playing with HD. Hunter only played 25 minutes. 

Granted, he got a lot of minutes because of Smith’s foul trouble, but still, 41 minutes. In a tight game that went to OT, Eli was the one guy who Juwan kept in the game.

 I know he’s not flashy. He doesn’t look like he should be a good defender. I cringe sometimes when he’s at PG, but he and Livers are the team leaders early on.

Streetchemist

November 30th, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^

I agree 100% on Eli. He had a rough first half yesterday. He’s really good at running around ball screens on defense which is extremely valuable even if he isn’t great on iso D. 

He’s the only other player besides Livers I feel good about shooting a 3 right now. He needs to shoot more in my opinion. 

blueboy

November 30th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^

I think this post undersells Livers by a bit. One subtle way in which he seems to be very much improved is that he's taking some much higher degree of difficulty 3s this year. He's still not shooting off the dribble very often, but he's shooting on the move off the catch a lot more, Duncan Robinson style.

Small sample, but he's taking 9 3PAs/40 minutes, up from 6.2 the last 2 years. 

 

 

HL2VCTRS

November 30th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^

I think the only thing limiting Dickinson might be conditioning, and it might be why we didn’t see him right away in the 2nd half. Towards the middle of OT he looked like he was moving a little differently and might have been gassed. Right after I noticed it was when he missed the two free throws too. 
 

Perhaps in addition to getting used to the college game, Howard is trying to make sure he’s available in crunch time?  I could be way off... just something that seemed to be occurring late in the game. 

AC1997

November 30th, 2020 at 4:47 PM ^

I know Juwan is still experimenting with rotations and I know that foul trouble (can't believe the refs fell for all the flopping and called that many charges) messed with that too.  But the auto-benching was really annoying, Dickinson needed to come in earlier in the 2nd, and the forward rotation seemed choppy - no one could get into a flow except Brown - who was missing the ocean from a boat.  

My general takes:

- More Smith on the floor.  I know he had his own TOs against the zone, but still felt more comfortable with him out there.  The ability to push, run ball screens, and handle are too important.  

- I'm not worried about Brooks on defense.  I thought Oakland got more of their open looks running off multiple screens than iso on Brooks.  He isn't Charles Matthews (nor is Chaundee) but I'm okay with it.  Just need to minimize the time he's running the offense.

- More Johns at the 5....maybe some at the 4.  Less Davis against teams like this.  Zone was always going to be a bad matchup for him.  

- I still think Williams is limited on defense and offense....but the little things he does are going to keep him in the rotation.  

- Zeb is....uh.....not ready.  I love that he seems like Darius Morris out there athletically, but his defense has been terrible so far and he needs time to develop an offensive identity.  I hope he gets some run the next couple of games for the experience, but don't want to see him in clutch moments.

- Franz....come on....hit a three please. 

blueboy

November 30th, 2020 at 7:40 PM ^

Agree with most of what you're saying - in particular agree with more Johns. He's been awesome so far. We'll see if he can keep it up, but he looks vastly improved from last year. He's showed some really nice footwork and finishes in the post and if he can do that, then there's not really much Austin Davis brings to the table that Johns doesn't.

I imagine that Juwan wants to give Davis as many minutes as possible in his last year after he could've gone to another school and gotten more playing time but I bet when the games get more important/competitive, he'll lose most of his minutes to Dickinson and Johns.

Not sure I agree on Zeb - we don't have much of a sample size but I thought he actually did a pretty decent job defensively. He got beat on one cross-screen, but other than that he did a pretty good job keeping his man in front of him. On offense we haven't seen do too much, but he made a couple nice passes out there and I'm intrigued to see more, especially during the non-conference part of the schedule.

blueboy

December 1st, 2020 at 4:03 PM ^

Because if you watched the game instead of just looking at the box score, you'd have noticed that it was his boxing out that let guys like Franz rack up rebounds. And on the offensive end, he got a bunch of tips that turned into offensive rebounds for other guys. Then late in the game, Oakland made a concerted effort to keep more guys back to help on the boards, which killed their transition offense.

MGoBruski

November 30th, 2020 at 5:55 PM ^

I thought Eli did a great job overplaying Moore's right hand. Obvious that he could not easily go left and forcing him to run around Eli through screens was very effective in the second half. Smith got called for some questionable fouls as did Franz, but the turnovers were the key reason we were not in the game. Smith brings more stability to our offense as PG. Our best lineup may be bringing Eli off the bench to spread out the fouls until a 3rd ball handler (Jackson) emerges.

CTG

November 30th, 2020 at 7:20 PM ^

Maybe we are confusing players, but Moore is left handed. He was unstoppable getting to the rim until they forced him to go right.   He made one tough layup over an M player and spun left on Wagner for an easy layup.   Wagner and the team should have been coached (scouted) not to let him go left.   He couldn't score late in the 2nd half when they shut him down from going left. 

bronxblue

November 30th, 2020 at 6:04 PM ^

I'm really excited about the team but my one concern is that if they are relying so heavily on Dickinson in the half-court offensively that might lead to stagnation as bigger teams adjust.  They just don't have a driver who can pull defenders into the lane unless Brown or Smith really break out (and in Smith's case aren't an anchor defensively so you can't okay him).

I do think I've been more underwhelmed by Franz defensively as others, but I've also only seen pieces of games.  He does have all the tools to be a great defender.

blueboy

November 30th, 2020 at 7:18 PM ^

This Michigan team may end up having trouble creating in the half-court, but I don't know how you can jump to that conclusion based on the first two games.  

We had no problem creating offense against Bowling Green - Smith did a lot of the work, but a lot of other guys were getting into the teeth of the defense too.

As for the Oakland, zone defenses are just different. You don't beat zone defenses by driving by guys 1-on-1. You beat zones with smart passing and cutting.

outsidethebox

November 30th, 2020 at 8:11 PM ^

While good passing, cutting and overloading it the conventional way to break a zone they can  be broken by dribble penetration as well-certainly by someone with Smith's quickness. Today so little zone is played that no/little attention is given to attacking it. If I were coaching this Michigan team I would add it to my defensive repertoire. 

bronxblue

November 30th, 2020 at 8:36 PM ^

I'm basing this a bit on last year's struggles as well; save for Simpson they really didn't have much of a creator on offense, and most of those guys are back.  Smith was fine against Bowling Green but he's so deficient defensively that it sort of negates his value unless they are planning on changing their defensive schemes significantly to compensate against some of the better teams in the league.  It's why you see them stick with Brooks so much; he's not close to the offensive playmaker but he's competent and dogged defensively and that's valuable.

I understand how to beat zone defenses, but that's also going to be a pretty rare occurrence in league play so it doesn't tell us that much either way.  They still turned the ball over 20 times and look lost on offense for a majority of the game against a team that had been blown out by everyone else they've faced.  Again, a team throws you a curve-ball defensively and that can screw you up for a bit, but the fact it took them so long to get the offense going, and so much of it was reliant on brilliant passing from a freshman center, isn't a good sign.  Can it improve?  Absolutely, and I think they will.  But my concerns aren't completely unfounded.

MaizeBlueA2

December 1st, 2020 at 12:03 AM ^

This is excellent stuff! Agree with all of the thoughts/comments.

I'd also like to see Johns get some more run. Williams is taking his minutes, but I don't see Williams doing anything that Johns can't do.

While I love Johns as a small ball 5, I also want to see him next to Dickinson. 

And unless you're going to make Brooks a spot-up SG, I think you go "either/or" with him and Smith.

Brown should've been pulled for Smith against Oakland, but overall...Smith/Brooks, Wagner, Livers, Brown/Johns, and Dickinson is basically my rotation. Davis and Williams would be the 8th and 9th options. Zeb reminds me so much of Caris Levert, Caris was wild and out of control as a freshman...it wasn't until the tournament when things finally came close to slowing down for him.

I'm starting Davis for one more game before moving to Dickinson. 

Dickinson - 22 mpg

Livers - 32 mpg

Wagner - 30 mpg

Brooks - 27 mpg

Smith - 25 mpg

Brown - 23 mpg (first sub for Brooks, always)

Johns - 21 mpg (8 mpg at the 5)

Williams - 10 mpg

Davis - 10 mpg

TrueBlue2003

December 2nd, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^

There's no reason to play Brown at the 3 and Wagner at the 2.  Shift Wagner's 2 minutes to Brown and you're close (although I'd like to see John's cut more into Davis' minutes and there's no reason to play Williams 10 min a game unless  they get into serious foul trouble):

C: Dickinson (22), Davis (5), Johns (13)

PF: Livers (25), Johns (10), Williams (5)

SF: Wagner (30), Livers (10)

SG: Brooks (12), Brown (28)

PG: Smith (25), Brooks (15)

Matt EM

December 1st, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^

Checked out the numbers this morning and they definitely backed up what my eyes/film were indicating.

Franz only allowing .5 PPP in isolation (Lowest on the team) and 33% shooting (Lowest on the team).

Overall Franz is allowing .579 PPP as a defender (Lowest on the team) and is in the 77th percentile (Best on the team) as a defender in the country so far this season, although its an extremely small sample. 

For context, Chaundee is in the 68th percentile in the country and is second best on the team. 

This definitely lines up with what my eyes are seeing, these two are clearly the two best defenders on the team so far. 

TrueBlue2003

December 2nd, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^

If a guy gets beat and someone has to come over to help which opens someone else up, how is that scored by whatever source you're using?  That happened to Franz a couple times while I was watching. Defense is about much more than what your guy does, it's a team game and any effective grading method has to account for how anyone's play effects the team's ability to defend.

This method also doesn't take into account competition and how those PPP were obtained relative to expectations. If you're guarding the teams best player who typically scores 1.1 ppp and you hold him to 1, that's better than allowing a guy that typically scores 0.8 ppp to score 0.9.

I buy this directionally, though.  I didn't see all of either game so maybe I just saw a couple bad possessions for Wagner.  I think that Brooks tends to draw the toughest guard assignment and Brown or Livers the toughest wing assignment so that's a factor.

SamGoBlue2

December 1st, 2020 at 7:03 PM ^

I love the basketball chatter, and I'm as big a Michigan basketball fan as there is - certainly excited for the season and thought we looked outstanding on offense against Bowling Green. Obviously the Oakland game was a hard fall back to earth, but I'm still hopeful this will be a fun, exciting, and solid team to watch throughout the season.

That being said, there are two all-time bad hot takes in this post, and one comically bad assertion.

1. Matt EM, on Dickinson: "Don't think there's any question he should be the primary option in half-court sets. Can consistently create for himself and others."

Uh...what? You don't think there is "any question he should be the primary option in half-court sets"? Look, Dickinson is going to be a very good, maybe great player at Michigan. He's already shown that he is an outstanding passing big man, he can use his body to get great position, he has some finishing touch, is a good free throw shooter, and is just plain huge. That being said, we're talking about a guy who has scored a total of 30 points in two career college games playing slightly more than 50% of available minutes, that against competition that will likely prove middling at best (Bowling Green, 163 on KenPom) and downright rancid (Oakland, 311 on KenPom) at worst. He made 4/7 field goal attempts in his first game and 6/8 in his second game, that coming against, again, what has been one of the downright worst teams in college so far this season. Both opponents were severely undersized in the post. Beyond the simple fact that we are WAY over-hyping the results we've seen so far, we are also talking about this same freshman being "the primary option in half-court sets" over the likes of Franz Wagner, Isaiah Livers, Mike Smith, and Chaundee Brown? This is absolutely absurd. Dickinson should continue to get more time and more touches as he continues to adjust to the game...if he's our #1 offensive option again this season, we are in big trouble. He has looked good so far, but frankly, his two best attributes to-date are his size and his passing.

2. Ace, also on Dickinson: "There are going to be some ups and downs but Dickinson is the most talented post player they’ve had in a long, long time."

Uh...WHAT?! I'm 100% on board with the first part of this take - there are going to be ups and downs, no question. The second best part...well, maybe Ace and I have extraordinarily different views on what constitutes "a long, long time" in college basketball (or maybe he's not thinking about it in terms of season to season but rather that it's been hundreds of days in real life?), but last I checked, Mo Wagner suited up all the way back in...2018...and Mitch McGary before that WAY back in...2014! My comment above already addresses this, but to insinuate that Dickinson, today, is a "more talented" post player than peak Wagner and/or peak McGary is a comically bad take. I understand that Wagner was much more skilled than a traditional big and did a lot of damage away from the basket, but he had a bevy of fantastic post moves throughout his career, and I don't even know how you could argue that Dickinson is more talented than McGary was at the end of his freshman season.

3. Seth, on playing Oakland: "I know we're not supposed to be mentioning football, but Oakland's zone was a Mark Dantonio July Drive(TM). Michigan clearly wasn't prepared for their opponent to switch up their defense."

This may actually be correct that we weren't prepared, but it would only be due to an extreme lack of scouting if actually the case. Kampe's Oakland teams play almost exclusive man defense most years, yes, but they've played essentially nothing but zone the first three games of this season...this was not Oakland "switching up their defense"; the staff should have known exactly what to expect.

TrueBlue2003

December 2nd, 2020 at 1:33 PM ^

I don't think Ace was considering Wagner a "post player" per se because he really wasn't. Mo Wagner was more of a wing as his best work was done on the perimeter and dribble drives. He posted up a little but Dickenson for his age is probably more talented in the post.

But yeah, he's not more talented than McGary so that "long, long time" is...7 years.

And Seth was absolutely correct.  He not saying that the coaches didn't know they were going to run a zone.  He said they weren't prepared, and anyone with eyeballs that watched the first half could clearly tell they were not prepared to do what they needed to do to beat it.  A pretty weak zone at that (one that gave up over 100 points to Zavier and over 90 to Purdue).