MGoPodcast 9.17: The Eclosion Stage

Submitted by Seth on January 23rd, 2018 at 7:42 AM

mgopodcast 9.17

We are at the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, or at least Brian and the equipment is; Ace called in.

We Couldn’t Have One Without the Other

We can do this because people support us. You should support them too so they’ll want to do it again next year! The show is presented by UGP & The Bo Store, and if it wasn’t for Rishi and Ryan we’d be sighing to ourselves.

Our other sponsors are also key to all of this: HomeSure Lending, Peak Wealth Management, Ann Arbor Elder Law, the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, the University of Michigan Alumni Association, Michigan Law Grad,Human Element, Lantana Hummus and new this week introducing Ecotelligent Homes

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1. Maryland Game

starts at 1:00

What has happened to my basketball team, why are they running the Amaker offense? The Poole explosion. Cowan can ball—Z got six turnovers from him. M kept Hueter mostly off the box score, missed switch/moving screen got him open for the almost heartbreaking screen.

2. Nebraska/Rutgers

starts at 11:45

Michigan visits The Bank. Worst performance of the season by a lot—absolute dead legs. Just six assists. Credit to Nebraska/Miles for coming up with the just switch everything defense. This is a bubble team that’s not on the bubble: in 5/6 games Nebraska’s had an 80-90 Game Score on Torvik (% likelihood winning discounting luck)—that’s a good team. Also credit to Delany for those dead legs. Rutgers guy disputes “The Cable Subscribers”, gets no assist because Rutgers had ONE assist.

Suspect Michigan’s offensive problems aren’t just being tired: they don’t have a guy they trust to take the ball off the dribble. Barring a Simmons breakout that doesn’t appear fixable.

3. Bracketology

starts at 31:55

M seems headed for an almost certain tournament spot but it’s also very likely to be an unfairly low seed (10 right now). Big Ten looks bad to RPI but these teams are all dangerous and sweeping past everybody except road games at OSU/Purdue is no even likely. Torvik thinks 8 seed. M can’t get help from their noncon wins: UCLA is off the bubble. Texas predicted to miss the NCAAs because the Big XII is tough. Poor Maryland gets in if it’s not a bad year in the Big Ten. Need a Walton-level breakout from someone or a win at Purdue to move up a seed. Poole goes supernova?   

4. Ace’s Hockey Podcast wsg David Nasternak

starts at 43:05

Michigan sweeps Penn State, which gets them ranked above Penn State and has them right smack on the top of the bubble. Win and a tie at Ohio State would be huge this weekend. M is reactive on the penalty kill—not very planned. Lavigne moved up from 56th to 18th in save % in a weekend (but what a weekend!). Marody is one guy. Love how Penn State plays hockey. The 2nd line was the best line.

MUSIC

  • “Where is My Mind”—Pixies
  • “No Rain”—Blind Melon
  • “Cuyahoga”—REM
  • “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS

I’m gonna wear all my clothes backwards like Kris Kross.

    Comments

    Shop Smart Sho…

    January 23rd, 2018 at 8:47 AM ^

    With regard to beating the "switch everything" by dumping the ball into the post idea; that isn't really a viable option, is it? It seems as though last year was the only time this team has had a PG who is capable of getting the ball into the post on a routine basis. It's either not emphasized in practice, or the coaches are REALLY bad at teaching it.

    outsidethebox

    January 23rd, 2018 at 9:21 AM ^

    Or both. Since Michigan does not value a point...does not know how to employ one from this roster, perhaps they should make MAAR and Poole their guards, clear the middle and make the guards taking their man to the hole off the dribble a more focal point of the offense. Against a man defense this would actually give them three outstanding options-with Matthews being very capable of doing the same thing...with all 5 being excellent options to have the ball kicked back out to them to bury 3s. You don't need a PG to do this. 

    Otherwise, against zone defenses, I really like a 1-2-2 read set that starts with double lows and the wings out wide. This forces the defense to make some choices and opens the middle for penetration-which zones typically are good at mitigating.

    There...only one snipe at the coaching deficiency here..other than this one :) 

    Maizerage11

    January 23rd, 2018 at 9:26 AM ^

    I am not sure I am qualified to be commenting on this, but its the internet so since when do qualifications matter.

    Brian... I am not sure the proper response to I have CFS and so  "my body is tired" should be "well you should try having kids, oh wait don't you cant handle that". 

    It probably makes more sense to listen to Ace's experience without comparing it  to your own. 

     

    Just a thought.  Ace and others, I am willing to listen if I am wrong.

     

    ijohnb

    January 23rd, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^

    is my mind" was used brilliantly on The Leftovers. 

    Also, as currently situated, a 10 seed is absurdly low for a 17-5 Top 25 team with a road victory over the number 6 team in the country.  This is one occassion that I believe the selection committee would place Michigan far from where the "experts" are predicting right now.  I think if the season ended today and they won a game in the BIG tourney they would be a 6 or 7.

    EGD

    January 23rd, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^

    So, if you are an 8 or 9 seed, then you get a bit of an easier first-round game but have to play a #1 in the second round.  If you are a 10 seed, then you get a tougher first round opponent but then likely face a #2 to make the Sweet Sixteen.

    If you think your team is really 6 or 7 material, then seems to me you are better off drawing a 10 than an 8 or 9.

    Just a thought.

    DonBrownIsAStr…

    January 23rd, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^

    The SOS of our non-conference schedule is the thing that will kill our seed. When is next year's schedule set? I hope very much that there aren't any UC-Riverside's or Jacksonville's on there.

    ijohnb

    January 23rd, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^

    really don't think that Beilein cares that much about seeding.  Everybody can beat everybody in the tournament now, a lot of times the higher seeds are upset very early.  Last year we finished really strong and went up in seeding and ended up with a brutal 7-10 matchup with Ok St. that I would have traded for a matchup with any of the 9 seeds.  Two years ago we were in a play in game and ended up facing a very beatable ND team in the first ("second") round.  In 2014, we were a 2 seed and played an immensely talented 8 seed in Kentucky in the Elite 8.  It is a crap shoot, and you have to beat them all eventually.

    Our roster does not have the composition that "victory is assured" against any team that makes the tournament really anyway.  If we execute and stay out of foul trouble we are very difficult for anybody to beat.  If we don't we are vulnerable to basically every team in the field with the exception of the 16s. 

    Additionally, our offense really started rolling when we played those two cupcakes after the Texas game and we rode that to a pretty good start in conference play.  For Beilein's purposes, I think there is actually a method to those games.

    TrueBlue2003

    January 23rd, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^

    As they said, Torvik has them as an 8, Bracket Matrix has them as the top 8 seed right now, and they're only a 10 on a single bracket (out of like 88).

    We're an 8 right now, bordering on a 7.

    If we go 13-5 in conference play, which is possible if we take care of business at home and lose only two more on the road, we'll be in the 5/6 range, mayyybe even 4 range depending on how things shake out and depending on our conf tourney performance. Even 12-6 likely puts us in the 6/7 range. 11-7 is the danger area of 8/9.

    As bad as the B1G is this year, we have a relatively tough conference slate because we play Purdue, Ohio State and Maryland twice.

    TrueBlue2003

    January 23rd, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^

    Wagner didn't post up against Louisville.  If you watch his highlights (link) from that game, you'll recall that on only one basket did he catch the ball inside of ten feet before making his move.  On all other non-assisted baskets he caught it 15 feet or further from the hoop, and faced up before making his move.  Sometimes that move ended up in him backing a shorter guy down or spinning to the hoop but he wasn't getting the ball down low.

    As for whether we'll try to isolate him more like that after switches will be interesting.  I think part of that game was that we got an ideal matchup in which he had a wing defender that couldn't steal the ball from him like some ankle biters might be able to, but Deng also wasn't tall enough to contest any of his shots.

    The other thing is that Louisville did not provide any help or doubles the entire game because they were worried about our shooters.  I think teams this year are far less worried about Matthews, MAAR and even Z and Livers spotting up such that they're willing to double down on Wagner and Wagner isn't a great passer. He makes his moves without looking up much.  Regardless, we're going to have to get him the ball and he's going to have to find the open guys if doubles come.