MGoPodcast 9.17: The Eclosion Stage

MGoPodcast 9.17: The Eclosion Stage

Submitted by Seth on January 23rd, 2018 at 7:42 AM

mgopodcast 9.17

We are at the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, or at least Brian and the equipment is; Ace called in.

We Couldn’t Have One Without the Other

We can do this because people support us. You should support them too so they’ll want to do it again next year! The show is presented by UGP & The Bo Store, and if it wasn’t for Rishi and Ryan we’d be sighing to ourselves.

Our other sponsors are also key to all of this: HomeSure Lending, Peak Wealth Management, Ann Arbor Elder Law, the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, the University of Michigan Alumni Association, Michigan Law Grad,Human Element, Lantana Hummus and new this week introducing Ecotelligent Homes

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1. Maryland Game

starts at 1:00

What has happened to my basketball team, why are they running the Amaker offense? The Poole explosion. Cowan can ball—Z got six turnovers from him. M kept Hueter mostly off the box score, missed switch/moving screen got him open for the almost heartbreaking screen.

2. Nebraska/Rutgers

starts at 11:45

Michigan visits The Bank. Worst performance of the season by a lot—absolute dead legs. Just six assists. Credit to Nebraska/Miles for coming up with the just switch everything defense. This is a bubble team that’s not on the bubble: in 5/6 games Nebraska’s had an 80-90 Game Score on Torvik (% likelihood winning discounting luck)—that’s a good team. Also credit to Delany for those dead legs. Rutgers guy disputes “The Cable Subscribers”, gets no assist because Rutgers had ONE assist.

Suspect Michigan’s offensive problems aren’t just being tired: they don’t have a guy they trust to take the ball off the dribble. Barring a Simmons breakout that doesn’t appear fixable.

3. Bracketology

starts at 31:55

M seems headed for an almost certain tournament spot but it’s also very likely to be an unfairly low seed (10 right now). Big Ten looks bad to RPI but these teams are all dangerous and sweeping past everybody except road games at OSU/Purdue is no even likely. Torvik thinks 8 seed. M can’t get help from their noncon wins: UCLA is off the bubble. Texas predicted to miss the NCAAs because the Big XII is tough. Poor Maryland gets in if it’s not a bad year in the Big Ten. Need a Walton-level breakout from someone or a win at Purdue to move up a seed. Poole goes supernova?   

4. Ace’s Hockey Podcast wsg David Nasternak

starts at 43:05

Michigan sweeps Penn State, which gets them ranked above Penn State and has them right smack on the top of the bubble. Win and a tie at Ohio State would be huge this weekend. M is reactive on the penalty kill—not very planned. Lavigne moved up from 56th to 18th in save % in a weekend (but what a weekend!). Marody is one guy. Love how Penn State plays hockey. The 2nd line was the best line.

MUSIC

  • “Where is My Mind”—Pixies
  • “No Rain”—Blind Melon
  • “Cuyahoga”—REM
  • “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS

I’m gonna wear all my clothes backwards like Kris Kross.

    Hoops Preview: Rutgers

    Hoops Preview: Rutgers

    Submitted by Seth on January 20th, 2018 at 5:30 PM

    imageTHE ESSENTIALS

    WHAT #28 Michigan (16-5, 5-3) vs
    #116 Rutgers (12-9, 2-5)
    WHERE Crisler Arena
    Ann Arbor, MI
    WHEN noon EST, Sunday
    LINE Michigan –11 (KenPom)
    Michigan -13 (Vegas)
    TV BTN

    Right: Look at ye, all nearly respectable-looking, I ‘ardly recognized ye. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]

    THE US

    This is the fourth and final basketball game the Big Ten decided to pack into eight days in the middle of January. Kindly enough, they made the final boss a relatively straightforward tank-and-spank on Sunday at noon, giving the Wolverines a welcomingly refreshing whole Saturday to wake up in their own beds and practice whatever the plan is to beat the screen-switching malfunction Nebraska exposed.

    An off night in Lincoln after a mentally exhausting week is forgivable if it’s a one-time occurrence. On the other hand, Michigan’s only had about 20 minutes of good basketball in the 80 they’ve played since beating State by 10 in the Stand Behind Lou Anna Simon Center. Nick Ward’s ankles breaking dot gif can only be replayed so many times.*

    Rutgers fortunately represents another step down in competition. However this year’s Knights are more like the decent WAC teams we’d like Beilein to schedule than the bottom-of-the-SWAC drags they’ve been historically. This Rutgers team also thrives on the kind of sloppiness that defined those awful halves. Also we have a running podcast joke about taking away your conference membership if you lose to the 14th who will always be the 14th member of it. It’d be nice to see that cleaned up early and some starters get their rest.

    *(allegedly)

    THE LINEUP CARD

    Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

    Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
    G 3 Corey Sanders Jr. 6'2, 176 81 26 96 Yes
    Distributor/ballhandler who’ll drive the lane but can’t shoot.
    G 0 Geo Baker Fr. 64, 180 80 20 105 Sort of
    Pesky defender and main scoring threat who can also distribute—the biggest reason Rutgers has moved up to meh from utter crap.
    F 35 Issa Thiam So. 6'10, 190 70 11 118 Not at all
    If Duncan Robinson was two inches taller (and was still hitting 44% from three)
    F 33 Deshawn Freeman Sr. 6'7, 227 65 27 93 Very
    Physical defensive specialist with Ben Wallace-level hair game, Ben Wallace-like offensive game.
    C 11 Eugene Omoruyi So. 6'7, 234 52 23 97 Extremely
    First among heavy rotation at C. Crashes the boards, gets a lot of blocks, gets to the line and makes half of them.
    C 21 Mamadou Doucoure Fr. 6'9, 243 35 16 91 Extremely
    A guy. Can’t shoot.
    C 2 Shaquille Doorson Jr. 7’0, 275 22 12 108 Extremely
    True C averaged 20 mpg vs OSU-MSU-Purdue, DNP vs Iowa-Wis. Will see him against Teske or not at all
    C 1 Candido Sa Sr. 6'9, 235 27 12 85 Yes
    5/20 career on 3PA (1/1 this year), 40% from two. Very good shot blocker.
    G 44 Souf Mensah Jr. 6’2, 220 15 11 39 Yes
    JC transfer who looks like he’s 40. Only non-C on bench with Mike Williams out, may be a marginal improvement over playing with just 4 guys.

    [Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]