MGoPodcast 15.23: Candidates for Long-Term Improvement Comment Count

BlueBarron March 18th, 2024 at 7:00 AM

1 hour and 41 minutes

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1. Looking Back on the Juwan Howard Era

Starts at 1:00

It’s coachin’ search time, baby. Time for Warde Manuel to finally make a decision (unless it’s Beilein). One last look back at the Juwan Howard era. He came in with a good Beilein roster and brought in Franz Wagner. It felt like a seamless transition but then after that he just didn’t have a wing on his roster. Juwan was finding guys who were already shaped for the NBA and not having them prove anything. He also couldn’t play the portal well, it feels like he was too used to managing NBA rosters. It’s not a zero tolerance policy if you keep having incidents happen. 

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

2. The Basketball Coaching Search

Starts at 27:30
Greg McDermott (Creighton), Randy Bennett (Saint Mary’s), Nate Oats (Alabama), and Tony Bennett (NTTB, Virginia) are off the table. John Beilein has been brought up but it feels like a pipe dream. He’s older and not familiar with the NIL era. Shaka Smart probably won’t be interested because football is king at Michigan. Is Michigan a better gig than Marquette? Richard Pitino Jr - needs a better resume than what he did at Minnesota. Brian’s guy is Niko Medved out of Colorado State who has improved the Rams tremendously. He can find weird guys from weird places under the radar and he coaches them up. Also, everyone seems to like him. Darian DeVries (Drake) is a candidate who coached under Medved. His teams seem to be really well coached but are short (they can avoid turnovers and can’t offensive rebound at all but can maniacally clean up their own glass). Dusty May at Florida Atlantic reached the Final Four last year and had a Kenpom top 20 team. This is his 6th year as a college coach but only the second where his team has been good. Amir Abdur-Rahim at South Florida built Kennesaw State from a one win team to a tournament team. Mark Pope of BYU has had top 20 Kenpom teams in three of the five years he’s been at BYU. 

3. Hockey at Minnesota - BTT Semifinals

Starts at 1:02:25

Michigan beats Minnesota for the third straight year in the Big Ten Tournament at Mariucci. This will lock up an NCAA Tournament bid and now they play Michigan State in East Lansing for their third straight Big Ten Tournament title. This was probably Michigan’s most complete game of the season. The second period was extremely dominant but felt like they should’ve scored more. Michigan is 1-3 against MSU so far this year after winning their first game 7-1. They’ll likely be a 3 seed. Do you or do you not want to draw Denver?

4. Latest Football Bits

Starts at 1:27:33
Hey, did you hear Michigan sniped Tony Alford from Ohio State? What if he hates Ryan Day more than Michigan?? Who knows. This is a good sign that people want to work for Sherrone Moore. Wink Martindale is learning a lot about the defense from Rod Moore, so maybe the Mike Sainristil effect won’t be as big as we thought. Newly hired defensive line coach Greg Scruggs got an OWI, which was not his first. He’s been suspended indefinitely. Spring football starts today!

MUSIC:

  • "Fancy" — Drake
  • “If You Don't Want My Love" — Jalen Ngonda
  • “Gettin' to the Point”—  Panda Bear and Sonic Boom
  • “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:

"Just because you have low sperm count doesn't mean you don't love your wife."

Comments

Roanman

March 18th, 2024 at 8:56 AM ^

I did the same thing the last couple of nights that I always do when I run out of medicine, I stayed up all night watching basketball and/or football clips. The last two nights it was basketball.

I was in Ann Arbor at the very height of the Johnny Orr era and was mesmerized by the offense we ran back then. When Beilein referenced the "Johnny Orr" playbook, he became my guy forever. I'd sit and watch clips of the best Beilein teams and could only sort of halfway figure out what the hell he was doing ... sometimes. Which was likely the point, I'm sure.

I really like the little bit you can see of Niko Medved's offense and am every bit as confused as Beilein used to get me.

More people should listen to Brian more often. At least when it comes to basketball coaches. I'm sure he would agree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvAqVTUsy-A

cbs650

March 18th, 2024 at 9:02 AM ^

So Michigan wants to act like a mid major when it comes to Basketball? Michigan shouldn't have to settle for guys who "can find weird guys from weird places under the radar". Michigan is a school where football and basketball could be king but they are choosing not to be. And it almost feels like since Juwan was a part of era that brought sanctions to the school (and a team that was hated for other reasons), he was hamstrung because they didn't want to image or being lenient on admissions or NIL even though it's legal now. 

bronxblue

March 18th, 2024 at 9:21 AM ^

"Why didn't Warde fire Juwan during the season?  OSU did." is, honestly, a pretty stupid question.  OSU went 5-15 in conference last season and they brought Holtman back, then let him stumble through 7/8ths of this season before finally firing him, only to then elevate the interim coach to full HC because that was clearly the easiest path forward (and as noted in the podcast, they probably just got a little lucky shooting).  That's...not some great show of leadership by either the old or new ADs at OSU, and I must remind you all that Ross Bork at OSU was the guy who oversaw the Ole Miss fiasco under Hugh Freeze and then gave Jimbo Fisher the biggest coaching contract in CFB history at the time and then was forced to fire him (with a massive payout), then tried to hire Mark Stoops from UK before he was almost-violently told no, and then was coerced into hiring Mike Elko before skipping dodge because his days were clearly numbered.  Warde Manuel looks like a tactical genius compared to this guy, but apparently we've all bought into the hype that OSU couldn't possibly do anything wrong because they recruit football players good.

I give Warde credit for how he handled Howard's departure.  I know Howard is the worst coach in the history of Michigan sports and personally offended every basketball fan with not being better than John Beilein was at his height, but not stabbing him in the back during the year and then letting him go basically when the season ended are, in fact, what good ADs do.  We'll see about the job search and what comes of it but the worst decision he could honestly make would be to bring back John Beilein, and older guy who quit CBB 6 years ago because he didn't like the direction it was going then flamed out spectacularly in Cleveland and hasn't been a coach for years now.  That's not a "pipe dream", that's a nightmare scenario.  I don't think Warde was particularly inclined to keep Howard, and a lot of that unfounded fear was because people like JUB with axes to grind pop off on Xwitter or whatever with vague "look at me, I don't know shit but I know if I say Warde is bad I'll get engagement" non-news and that'll filter down.  Warde could well blow this but my assumption is he has names of guys that are good that will make people happy.  I mean, not people here because it would show Warde isn't an incompetent fool, but other people.  

Anyway, I continue finding myself defending Warde Manuel and I don't know why, but I guess we've gotten to the point where, on principle, I am annoyed with people moving the goalposts because their priors were proven wrong and they can't admit to it.  I was wrong about Howard going into this year; I thought he struggled with a lack of experience the past couple of seasons but with a decently-experienced squad this year he'd be better.  Instead they cratered and he's gone, and I missed some warning signs.  I'll cop to that.  But I also don't think Wade is going to blow this hire in that he'll purposely make a bad one; there's no promise it'll work out but that's more the vagaries of college sports than anything else.  But it is a bit exciting to have a chance at remaking this team with a new guy during a normal hiring cycle.

dragonchild

March 18th, 2024 at 11:06 AM ^

I continue finding myself defending Warde Manuel and I don't know why

You might want to ponder that.  You just wrote almost 600 words defending a well-paid, secure, unelected administrator.

If nothing else, I don't think "volunteer PR manager for Warde Manuel" is a healthy raison d'être for anyone.

bronxblue

March 18th, 2024 at 12:10 PM ^

You might want to ponder that.  You just wrote almost 600 words defending a well-paid, secure, unelected administrator.

I mean, by this logic it's weird that this place features thousand-word articles calling for the firing of well-paid, unelected coaches and opining about who said unelected administrator should hire.  We're all weirdo fans here; virtually nobody here wields any lever of power or influence over UM sports, so why not post our dumb opinions?  

Honestly, I wrote 500 words decrying the general hive mind around here that over the past couple of years has latched on to dubious, at best, beliefs around stuff like NIL, Michigan's approach to football not being sufficient to compete for a national title, the AD's inability to do basically anything right for any program, etc.  Hell, a couple weeks ago people were pointing to the Naurato's hiring as being a terrible one because the hockey team was poised to miss the tourney despite ample evidence that it was more than just coaching that had caused the downtown.  Now 3 weeks later they're firmly in the tourney and have a chance to win the BTT title again because they finally got some luck to swing back their way and also started to play better.  Haven't seen a lot of people come back with the mea culpa there.

My bigger point, and one I've generally harped on around here for years, is that BPONE is the worst fucking thing to take hold in this fanbase because everything becomes super-negative and everyone is out for blood.  Hell, this site posted multiple articles about takes about how Warde was definitely not going to fire Howard, then he did in a very timely fashion and there was no self-awareness or reevaluation of those priors, just a flippant "they should have done it earlier, like how OSU did" and moving on to how Warde's going to screw up the hiring of the next guy.  Warde is not an elite AD, but he's pretty average and I swear if people looked around college sports they'd realize that.  Nailing a coaching hire is a part preparation and insights but also a ton of luck, and we remember the successes because of survivor bias moreso than all the times "sure thing" hires fall apart.  So that's what I'm pushing back again, this idea that everything is going to suck and everyone else nails it 100% of the time.  If Warde comes in for some shelter as a result so be it, but I'm old enough to remember "Dave Brandon's Pimp Hand" around these parts and how that completely blew up.  We don't know what the future holds but as a fanbase I think we'd be a lot happier if we dwelled less on the faux-foreboding future and instead the somewhat meh-but-fine present.  

stephenrjking

March 18th, 2024 at 12:03 PM ^

Anyway, I continue finding myself defending Warde Manuel and I don't know why

I'm basically here, too.

The Warde hate is a runaway train, a pyramid of often imagined complaints building upon each other. It began almost as soon as he took the job, has continued every since, and continues to trade in a large volume of specious assumptions about what his job is and what he is doing that are divorced from reality.

There are real issues that Warde has mishandled. But those issues are buried in an avalanche of hate (and that is the right word) built upon imagined offenses or assumptions utterly ungrounded in reality. Warde is blamed for things and then never given credit when those things turn out to be fine.

And the net effect is that the real issues are ignored. People would rather be angry than actually address what goes on. There are reasons to think that Warde might not be the right choice going forward, but the people who want him gone the most don't care about those reasons.

stephenrjking

March 18th, 2024 at 2:06 PM ^

Actually, if the anti-Manuel sentiment were grounded in known facts, it *should* be associated with hockey much more than it is. That's because the Mel Pearson contract / investigation / scandal / sort-of-firing saga is a clear situation where Warde mishandled things in multiple ways on multiple fronts over the course of months. One need not even agree with the outcome of firing Mel Pearson (the details are more specific and important, but in effect we have a hostile work environment issue here, a category worth mentioning due to an apparent recurrence in a different sport in the same athletic department under Warde's watch) to understand that Warde having the information and just hanging things out to dry for months was complete malpractice.

Once that occurred, I believe Warde handled the subsequent interim coaching transition just fine, from making Naurato the interim coach to keeping that tag on him for most of the season when the team was playing well to ultimately hiring Naurato for the permanent job. But if one found the timeline difficult, it's because Warde put himself in that position. He had the facts of the investigation (in which, incidently, he comes off as disengaged or at least lawyered-up in his interview answers) for months while Mel Pearson continued to function as the hockey coach without a contract, a bizarre situation even without knowledge of the seriousness of the allegations. And then it leaked and there was public pressure and Mel was "fired" and Brandon Naurato had a couple of weeks to read "college hockey head coaching for dummies," and re-recruit the roster. And he promptly took the team to the Frozen Four. 

It's not that the hockey fanbase is disappointed in the program. It's that Warde mishandled this issue so clearly and publicly. 

bronxblue

March 18th, 2024 at 12:34 PM ^

Yeah, I'm fine with Warde being fired for good reasons - his handling of the Mel Pearson saga was atrocious and should be the first line of his termination letter, and whatever happened with the volleyball coach wasn't a good look.  Letting Harbaugh hire idiots like Shemmy wasn't good either.  I don't think there was any reasonable path for UM to retain Bakich given baseball's mid-major status in the North but if you want to ding him for that I guess that's fine.

But yeah, a lot of the hate is just directed at him as some totem, some avatar for perceived slights that never materialized.  And some of the attacks have gotten weirdly personal in a way I don't really get - for example, multiple people have repeatedly gone after him for his weight, as if him being a heavier guy is an indictment of his leadership.  Just bananas stuff that sounded tired in the 90s.

 Warde is blamed for things and then never given credit when those things turn out to be fine.

This sort of encapsulates my whole issue.  People acted like retaining Harbaugh in 2020 was lazy and uninspired, ignoring the fact Warde and UM were able to cut his buyout and his salary while still showing faith that, maybe, a season coached during a pandemic with a safety's coach Zooming in from his home wasn't instructive of Harbaugh's ability as a coach.  The easy way out in 2020 would have been to can Harbaugh and go hire some totally amazing coach like Tom Allen, Matt Campbell, or a slew of other totally-successful-since-2020 coaches that fans wanted to hire.  Warde seemingly looked at the totality of the situation, saw there was still a chance Harbaugh turns it around but gave UM a much easier way of getting out of it if he couldn't, and somehow was blamed for being lazy and then not given credit for helping UM win a national title 3 seasons later.  We'll see what happens with basketball this cycle, and maybe he does something boneheaded in the hiring process, but for a fanbase clamoring for Warde to do what they want he never seems to get credit when he does.

dragonchild

March 18th, 2024 at 12:40 PM ^

I'm basically here, too.

Indeed you are.

Here's the thing:  Warde Manuel is an unpopular public figure.  So, he's going to get shit on.  It's unfortunate but inevitable.  I find it a little annoying in principle, but in the end I move on.  The regular head-asplodey response makes the Warde-hater-hate train look at least as crazy as the haters they hate.

I guess my question is:  Why this guy?  How you spend your time is your business, but FWIW I know folks getting threatened with violence for existing so getting set off by "Warde Manuel pissed in my corn flakes" level stuff strikes me as an enviously cushy state of mind.  Like, I wish things were so easy that I could get worked up about ultra-tame shitposting of a mediocre, comfortable, well-paid administrator I don't even personally know.  Unfortunately I got WAY bigger fish to fry.

I get that we're all here to escape but that's precisely why I find the Warde Manuel Defense Brigade so baffling.  I'm all for curating the Internet but I have real misinformation campaigns I need to save my energy for.  I ain't wasting an ounce of my energy on Warde effin' Manuel.  Dude's doing fine.

rc90

March 18th, 2024 at 1:17 PM ^

A lot of people here are trying to put together a puzzle of what works and what doesn't in Michigan's athletic department. There's some interesting stuff on this front, not least of which was that Harbaugh just put together a three-year national championship run that started when most of the board here thought he should have been canned. If we come at this puzzle with any degree of humility, we recognize that we have a lot to learn.

So we're evaluating whether Warde Manuel is part of the solution or part of the problem. It is a reasonable question to ask, but that evaluation is running into people who just want to bitch, which is tiresome on its own, but particularly so when the complaints are really about future behavior that ends up going how the complainant was hoping it would go.

There's a reason the board adopted the "snowflake protocol" for post game discussion. Get the emotional shit -- which we all experience -- out of our system, and then let's get back to something a little more sophisticated, or at least something with a pretense of sophistication.

ST3

March 18th, 2024 at 4:41 PM ^

Except that it’s not a gross exaggeration for people that remember this place circa 2020. How do I know this? I’m one of the people who thought JH should be fired after the 2-4 season and I’m usually one of the last people to advocate for firing someone. Mea culpa.

schreibee

March 18th, 2024 at 1:22 PM ^

I'm going to make a much briefer Warde point than Bronx & King:

When Michigan chose to suspend Harbaugh, rather than let the Burgergate investigation play out with minimal assistance or participation from Michigan (the way basically the rest of the member institutions now treat them), I posted here that Harbaugh was gone, and rightfully so. I was roundly negged at the time.

Whether one blames Warde directly for that decision or not, what I would like to see in an AD is one that doesn't trip over themself to accommodate that useless, archaic, corrupt organization.

Decisive & PRO-Michigan. Nuff said! 

AC1997

March 18th, 2024 at 9:55 AM ^

Appreciate the content guys - lots of good stuff here....and considering you guys aren't nearly the experts at basketball that you are at the other sports it was pretty well informed overall.  That being said, there are still a few gripes I have that I wanted to point out:

I think it is a good point that Juwan's big 6-person class was in many ways his undoing.  I also liked Brian's point about Juwan targeting guys on the NBA radar when Beilein had to develop them.  But I think you're missing some stuff there....

  • You guys were among the champions of Juwan chasing elite recruits. That was your big mantra when he was hired for how he could continue what JB built. He put 6.5 guys in the league so hard to argue with that.  The issue was keeping them long enough for them to make an impact.
  • My argument is that the sport change from the moment Juwan came in and he didn't adapt.  How many OAD factories are there anymore?  How good are they?  The on-set of having GLeague Ignite options, the NBA paying G-leaguers real money, and Juwan actively encouraging guys to pursue their dreams hurt.  
  • Let's also not revise the past and forget what pushed JB out - Iggy and Poole leaving school before they had reached their potential so they could go be fringe NBA players.  (Yes, Poole has had some success and got rich, but at two points in his career he's been known as the worst player in the NBA and currently has the worst contract in the entire league.)

Now, let me address a few other head scratching comments from you guys that perhaps show how little basketball you've watched this year:

  • Zeb Jackson is not a good player Seth.  He's a starter on VCU, sure, but he still can't shoot at all and has a terrible ORtg.  He's not helping this team other than the fact that we needed more than one player who can dribble.
  • Will Tschetter is not a B10 starter just because Brian saw his 3pt% in his stat line.  I like Will and I hope he sticks around, but at the B10 level he's your 8th guy (think Joey Baker).  He can't defend, he can't rebound, and he's a foul magnet.  He's not athletic enough to play the 4 or big enough to play the 5.  He can give you a few minutes and shoot...but look how badly his shooting fell off.  
  • You mentioned Sanderson and that fiasco, but you have never pointed out arguably the worst part.  Sanderson's son is a 5-star basketball recruit!!
  • I agree that you called Frankie as a reg-flag recruit....but you should have pointed out how many of those guys Juwan kept targeting.  Kante (academics), Eastern (really bad academics), Dug (suspension), Christopher (head case), Todd (no interest in school), Love (bad academics), Aiyla (timeline, NCAA).  Too many guys that had no shot....and no semblance of a plan.
  • Seth said he doesn't want to build via the portal...but.....look around.  No freshmen play anymore no matter how good they are because the sport got old.  You need to find guys willing to stick around, but that's hard.  The portal is hard, but wide open.  The only way to be successful is to blend elite HS recruits, developmental HS recruits who won't transfer, and portal guys you can get in.

Finally, I think Medved is fine....but that's it.  I wish he had more success consistently and more obvious recruiting ability for higher level guys.  I think some of the other guys on your list are equal to him as candidates.  There's no slam dunk guy - we're rolling the dice here.  

Also, Oats would never be a Michigan guy.  He was a little shady before NIL and the way he handled actual murder by one of his players is a giant red flag.  

Surprised you didn't mention the other wild ass guess candidate - John Calipari!  More internet chatter out there about him than you'd think....

maizedNblued

March 18th, 2024 at 1:25 PM ^

Hold on....I have to turn you around on one thing.....Zavier/Xavier Simpson was not a good shooter either and had a pretty good career here ....a PG who cannot shoot is not full-stop for an offense....not to mention, Z/X turned his ugly set shot into somewhat respectable territory so claiming there would be no development out of Zeb Jackson and his shot or his ability to run an offense is a bit short-sided. 

maizedNblued

March 18th, 2024 at 1:48 PM ^

It's comparing apples to oranges...nobody knows how Zeb would have turned out if he and Beilein had stayed.....Z/X was unplayable and difficult to watch his freshman year - the dude only averaged about 8 minutes a game. I am not saying Zeb would have been a star but all you need is a complimentary PG who fits the structure of the offense and both of their recruiting rankings were about similar.

meeashagin

March 18th, 2024 at 10:10 AM ^

It's embarrassing the way Michigan is handling NIL and the portal. There's people at Michigan that absolutely hate our sport teams that have way too much power and would like to see it fail. All that extra stuff you gave on why Juwan lost his job is slighly irrelevant because Dickinson happened. That move right there will, keep us from 30% of the coaches and a lot of top players which has already started.

It's complete arrogance.

As someone who lives in the south this stuff would never happen down here.

I think this coaching search will be humbling with all the no's coming. 

bronxblue

March 18th, 2024 at 10:55 AM ^

Michigan didn't lose Dickinson because of NIL; they lost him when Love was denied admission and it was clear UM wasn't likely to be better than average, at best, and Dickinson wanted a chance at competing for something more.  It was clear in the timeline of events, and so that's why I never blamed him for leaving if he didn't believe the transfer would work.  But on the NIL front UM somehow convinced both Love and Shannon, two guys with a ton of interest, to come to UM initially and I'm fairly certain it wasn't just because Howard has pro connections.  We need to stop acting like NIL is holding UM back because we have a ton of evidence both in basketball and football that it doesn't, or at least that whatever UM's process and approach is doesn't hurt them with most players.

MH20

March 18th, 2024 at 12:05 PM ^

Dickinson announced he was transferring about a week before Love committed to Michigan. I don't think the two were related. I do think it was him no longer believing that Michigan could win and the lack of NIL that he got.

Dickinson leaves March 31:

https://twitter.com/TiptonEdits/status/1641881915450970126

 

Love commits April 7:

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1644377622770507776  

bronxblue

March 18th, 2024 at 12:21 PM ^

Dickinson also said after the fact that while money played a part, it wasn't dispositive

Dickinson told ESPN that his decision to transfer to Kansas was basketball-driven: Of the schools recruiting him, the Jayhawks had the strongest track record of winning championships, and of getting players to the NBA. He has one remaining year of college eligibility after 2023-24.

"If I wanted to just go to the highest bidder," he told ESPN, "then it wouldn't be Kansas."

He mentioned earlier in the article he wasn't making 6 figures at UM, which I feel is unlikely given numbers we've heard thrown around but I'll take his word on it.  But he didn't commit to KU until 5/4, and there were alarm bells around Love not being admitted in April that likely pushed him over.  I remember reading (and you can ignore insider chatter because they tend to be wrong) that Dickinson had entered the portal but was giving UM a chance to build a better roster around him and Love not looking viable really hurt because the rest of the guys didn't look like a title contender while a team with Dickinson and Love was more dangerous.

The larger point is that him leaving probably wasn't a direct indictment of UM's NIL system unless, again, we are led to believe that Love and Shannon were so much cheaper than Dickinson that UM's paltry offerings were appealing.

bronxblue

March 18th, 2024 at 3:53 PM ^

Sure, but my larger point is that the ongoing narrative that he left UM for NIL purposes wasn't the driving factor.  I'm sure he makes a bit more at KU than UM just because of the economics of how BBall is viewed at KU vs. UM, but his departure was clearly motivated by a number of factors and not just money. 

schreibee

March 18th, 2024 at 9:49 PM ^

I'm not convinced yet that Michigan's NIL approach is going to work post-2022.

And apparently neither are they, as they've added the various NIL, Portal & roster management people under Sherrone.

But if you can name 5 players from the '23-'24 classes combined that Michigan got despite heavy NIL offers from other schools, I'll be impressed...

ShadowStorm33

March 18th, 2024 at 1:27 PM ^

Not sure who he's talking about, but a name like Jim Stapleton comes to mind (can't think of many other schools where an alum seems to actively try and sabotage their alma mater because he's butthurt). Also people like Warde who, if the rumors are true, seem more concerned about being liked by their peers than actually sticking up for their school amid all this B1G/NCAA bullshit...