Illinois 64, Michigan 62
It's hard to suffer a more crushing loss in January.
Michigan blew a late lead against Illinois, missing five consecutive free throws with a chance to close out a much-needed win. In the final moments of a tie game, Jon Teske got a favorable matchup in the post on Giorgi Bezhanishvili only for his hook shot to rim out. The Illini's Ayo Dosunmu, isolated on Zavier Simpson, then drilled a tough midrange jumper with 0.5 seconds left to complete the Wolverine collapse.
To make matters far, far worse, Isaiah Livers returned to the court after a six-game absence only to suffer what appeared to be a reaggravation of his groin injury in the second half. On an eerily similar play to his initial injury in December, Livers fell awkwardly after drawing a foul on a transition dunk attempt, grabbed at his groin in obvious pain, and struggled to get upright. While he stayed in the game to shoot free throws, he immediately exited thereafter, and his only subsequent appearance was for M's final inbounds pass, which bounced harmlessly off Franz Wagner's hands.
a picture says a thousand words [Campredon]
To add to the frustration, Michigan again did much of what they needed to do to win the game, only to be betrayed by poor shooting on one end and their inability to contain a star player on the other. The Wolverines turned the ball over twice all game. Twice! In a massive departure from the first matchup, they doubled up Illinois on the offensive boards 10-5. They outscored the Illini in the paint, shut them out on the fast break, and limited standout center Kofi Cockburn to five points on 2-for-9 shooting before he fouled out.
Michigan attempted five more field goals, six more three-pointers, and ten more free throws than Illinois; Illinois made one more field goal and equaled the Wolverines in three-pointers and free throws. Once again, it felt like a miracle every time a Michigan three found its mark; they finished 4-for-17, and that wasn't a bad finish after going 1-for-11 in the first half.
Simpson's 17 points weren't enough to overcome a lack of help [Campredon]
The offense sputtered along thanks to yeoman's work from Simpson, who repeatedly worked his way into the lane for a team-high 17 points on 7-for-12 field goals; unfortunately, his 3-of-6 mark from the line included an empty trip that could've put the Wolverines up four points after the final media timeout.
Instead, Dosunmu—who'd finish with a career-high 27 points—blew by Simpson to tie the game a couple possessions later. David DeJulius took the lead back with a pretty baseline floater, then Michigan had two more chances to stretch the lead at the line; Austin Davis bricked the front end of a one-and-one, then Franz Wagner missed two bonus free throws after pulling down a critical rebound that drew Cockburn's fifth foul. Trent Frazier tied the game at the line by converting both ends of a one-and-one after a Teske reach-in, setting up the game's final sequence.
Michigan now has a number of pressing concerns. Two straight home losses have dropped them to 11-8 overall and 2-6 in the Big Ten; falling twice in a row at home now has them squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble. While there's still plenty of time to make it games, it's hard to see how they'll accomplish that if Livers has to miss time, and it's hard to feel good about his status considering he appeared to reaggravate his injury after only 19 minutes back on the court. With or without Livers, someone—preferably multiple someones—needs to make a dang jump shot.
While a date at Nebraska on Tuesday should provide some respite, it's also a game Michigan can little afford to lose.
[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]
January 25th, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^
Threes and free throws have been awful. Seems like a slight improvement there and this team can start winning again.
January 25th, 2020 at 6:24 PM ^
Amen. And make a shot 2 feet from the net. And play intelligent. And take less 3s.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:13 PM ^
How is a road game going to provide respite? We have literally not won a single one all year, opponent be damned
January 25th, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
Because every road game we've played has been against a better team than Nebraska.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
I agree. Michigan will be the favorites to win, like they were the past 2 games, but no road game should be an assumed victory at this point, even against Nebraska (who at home killed a team Michigan needed two overtimes to beat).
January 25th, 2020 at 3:17 PM ^
At the end of the game, one captain choked on offense and the other choked on defense (more outclassed than choked). Need some leaders that can step up when it matters.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:21 PM ^
It's ridiculous to blame Simpson for that last shot. You can't defend that any closer without fouling.
You could fault him for missing the two free throws with 3 minutes left, but he also carried our offense for long stretches today. Franz (an 87% shooter) missing the two that would have all but iced the game was the killer.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^
Hopefully Christopher ends up signing so M knows what it’s like to have a player of that caliber again on the roster.
January 25th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
Simpson was the lone bright spot today on offense although I thought the team overall played great defense. Illinois made a lot of tough shots that you just tip your cap to.
Crazy that Simpson was +5 in 37 minutes. That means M was -7 in the mere 3 minutes he was on the bench!!
January 25th, 2020 at 5:07 PM ^
oh, for fuck’s sake. neither one of those plays were chokes on any level. don’t be a turd.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^
It’s a shame that poor shooting over shadows all the positives by the team. Just not good enough to overcome such a severe deficiency. Make the right side of the bubble and this season goes how most expected it to for it to be a 1st year success.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:27 PM ^
Genuine question: In your mind, how many wins does Michigan need to have before the conference tournament to end up on the right side of the bubble?
January 25th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^
21 would be the minimum I’d think
January 25th, 2020 at 3:48 PM ^
Well considering they would have to go 10-2 in their final 12 to reach that, I bloody hell hope that’s not the case.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^
Yeah that’s just pre BTT to be a lock. There’s the possibility they only win 18 then get 2 good wins in the BTT and get in.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^
With our schedule (#3 in the country per Kenpom) 19 will probably do it.
January 25th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^
Okay, so that would require going 8-4 down the stretch. With 5 home games/7 road games left, I just don’t see where those 8 wins will come from. They only have 2 wins against high-majors in their last 10 against them (1-2 at home). So I guess IDK why some are acting as if it’s a given that Michigan will make the tournament.
January 25th, 2020 at 4:13 PM ^
18 would be enough as long as they don't collapse in the BTT. 9-11 against their conf schedule and 18-13 against their overall schedule would be good enough. They could even lose the first game of the BTT to anyone but NW or NEB. They'd have a top 3 SoS and plenty of good wins. Teams make it into the 68 team field with 17-15 records against worse schedules.
January 25th, 2020 at 5:02 PM ^
I don’t know I think going 18-13 and losing the first game of the BTT puts them in the NIT. There’s going to be bid stealers from the mid majors.
January 25th, 2020 at 6:06 PM ^
It would be enough. There are always bid stealers. The bubble is soft with 68 teams. That'll be good enough with the schedule they'll have played (with 90% confidence).
January 25th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
That's the problem, they're shooting "over shadows."
January 25th, 2020 at 3:22 PM ^
Every time a player stepped up to the free-throw line.
[gif of a doll catching on fire that I’ve used multiple times in the past to 0 complaints removed]
January 25th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
2-6 is squarely on the bubble??? What type of meds is Ace on, I want some.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
Why is Teske shooting threes? He's 1 for his last 10 at home.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
That is an appropriate question. The answer, I believe, is that he should not be. He was something like 29 percent coming in against all levels of competition, and add a 1-6. He is not a good 3 point shooter period. Because he has occasionally had a 3-4 streak (though not this season), people remember that and say he can shoot the 3. Franz is almost as troubling, hit his first and missed his last 5, but as a true freshman, he may yet become a valid 3 point guy. The evidence after 4 years is in on Teske, and he isn't.
January 25th, 2020 at 4:20 PM ^
Franz is an elite FT shooter which is a good indicator that he should be a better 3 point shooter. He's been awful lately but I think you let him keep shooting. 100% agree on Teske though. He cannot have a green light.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
Beilein wanted all his guys shooting 3s to keep the defense honest. Wasn’t as big of a deal when you have Livers, Poole, and Iggy hitting 3s. Now it’s the way he’s been coached for 3.5 years and no one else on offense is as willing a shooter as Poole and Iggy so you end up with high Teske usage.
Everyone complained about Poole jacking up shots but jeeze what I would give to have a guy with the confidence of Poole right now. A few chucks from Poole is better than the current offense.
January 25th, 2020 at 4:02 PM ^
The answer is that he should not be shooting threes. He was 30% last year from the closer distance. That's pretty bad and it was questionable whether he should have had the green light then.
This year he's 26.5%, an expected incremental decline given the further 3pt distance. His shots don't even look good. There is no evidence that he's anything but a 26.5% shooter which is very bad, especially considering that he's a guy you want under the basket for OREB tip outs.
It's so bad that bigs are sagging way off him daring him to shoot it so it's not like he's spreading the floor at all by drawing bigs away from the basket.
They need to turn the light from green to red and accept the reality of the new three point line.
January 25th, 2020 at 5:04 PM ^
Good point about the line moving back. A small increase in distance has a much bigger effect on a 30% shooter as compared to a 40% shooter.
January 25th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
He has a knack for hitting exactly one three per game. He should probably stop after reaching his "quota" for the night.
January 25th, 2020 at 5:50 PM ^
Because he sees Wagner shooting them.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
This was both far more crushing and yet also encouraging compared to PSU. If Michigan hit even an average number of their shots they win by double digits. I don't honestly know if they'll make the tourney anymore; I'd put it at 50/50, worse if Livers is really out.
But at the same time they're a couple of possessions away from beating Minnesota, Iowa, PSU, and Illinois. That doesn't mean they'd win them all but this season looks way different if they have a bit more shooting luck. And Illinois wasn't great defensively in this game; they gave up open looks that earlier UM teams hit.
Ah well, let's see how Nebraska looks and then it's back to the salt mine with Rutgers
January 25th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
Michigan is 2-8 against high majors since the Bahamas. I don't see how one could assume they'll suddenly buck that trend and win enough games down the stretch to be even 50/50 for a bid when they likely won't have Livers for the remainder of the regular season.
January 25th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^
Sure, but flip a couple of possessions and they're 4-4 or better. Or 1-9. My point is that this team isn't as full of despair as, say, the year or two Caris couldn't stay healthy and they literally looked lost out there.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:37 PM ^
Being a couple of possessions away from winning was the definition of the Lions’ season this year.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
I think the NIT is in doubt. Taking worst, but plausible case, Livers is out for the year and we maybe cobble together 2 or 3 wins.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:29 PM ^
I know Nebraska and Northwestern suck but I don't see how anyone can assume Michigan will just walk into those venues and win. The home game against Nebraska is the only one that I think you can say is a better than 50/50 chance to win.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
Isaiah Livers' groin is all of us right now.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:35 PM ^
Practice free throws.. you win. Simple. Problem is the world now is everything for free. So shoot 50 3s. Sick. Where are the parents? Oh San Fran.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:36 PM ^
What the hell are you babbling about?
January 25th, 2020 at 8:07 PM ^
I think he’s blaming our missed free throws on the liberals...
January 25th, 2020 at 4:47 PM ^
Actually I heard they were in Austin. Eating barbecue when a young man from Berlin, Germany had two clutch free throws. We helped his people with the Marshall Plan. Why Marshall? It could have been the Sears Plan instead. Back then families knew quality when it came in the Sears catalog...
January 25th, 2020 at 3:38 PM ^
5 straight missed free-throws to end the game. They should feel bad, and I’m sure they do.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
The Iggy, Poole, Matthews hole is just too big to fill. Going to Teske to win a game is the telltale sign. Livers is such a huge, huge loss. Without him this is not a tournament team. If we are on the bubble and Livers is out, we won’t get the votes.
January 25th, 2020 at 4:11 PM ^
Plus, Jalen Wilson decommitted last May, extremely late in the process, and committed to Kansas before Juwan was hired.
A year ago at this time we were expecting to have a very different team on the floor this season. Sigh.
January 25th, 2020 at 5:14 PM ^
calling teske’s number against georgi was absolutely the right call...got exactly the shot they wanted, at the spot they wanted. it just didn’t fall.
January 25th, 2020 at 3:43 PM ^
Amazing how much more effort livers plays with compared to the rest of the team
January 25th, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^
This is not a tournament team right now. Not even close.
They can’t shoot. And now they seem mentally weak too - that was an epic choke job.
But we’re about where you might expect looking at the roster (and ignoring the early season surprises and optimism). They lost their top 3 scorers from last year to the draft and lost their best returning player to injury. They added one freshman who’s barely played and another who missed much of the season due to injury and is still a freshman who needs time to develop. And they have a first time head coach replacing an elite coach.
They’ve been losing winnable games so they might right the ship but I’m not betting on it.
January 25th, 2020 at 5:28 PM ^
Mentally WEAK hits the nail on the head
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