2019-20 illinois #2

It's hard to suffer a more crushing loss in January.

Michigan blew a late lead against Illinois, missing five consecutive free throws with a chance to close out a much-needed win. In the final moments of a tie game, Jon Teske got a favorable matchup in the post on Giorgi Bezhanishvili only for his hook shot to rim out. The Illini's Ayo Dosunmu, isolated on Zavier Simpson, then drilled a tough midrange jumper with 0.5 seconds left to complete the Wolverine collapse.

To make matters far, far worse, Isaiah Livers returned to the court after a six-game absence only to suffer what appeared to be a reaggravation of his groin injury in the second half. On an eerily similar play to his initial injury in December, Livers fell awkwardly after drawing a foul on a transition dunk attempt, grabbed at his groin in obvious pain, and struggled to get upright. While he stayed in the game to shoot free throws, he immediately exited thereafter, and his only subsequent appearance was for M's final inbounds pass, which bounced harmlessly off Franz Wagner's hands.

a picture says a thousand words [Campredon]

To add to the frustration, Michigan again did much of what they needed to do to win the game, only to be betrayed by poor shooting on one end and their inability to contain a star player on the other. The Wolverines turned the ball over twice all game. Twice! In a massive departure from the first matchup, they doubled up Illinois on the offensive boards 10-5. They outscored the Illini in the paint, shut them out on the fast break, and limited standout center Kofi Cockburn to five points on 2-for-9 shooting before he fouled out.

Michigan attempted five more field goals, six more three-pointers, and ten more free throws than Illinois; Illinois made one more field goal and equaled the Wolverines in three-pointers and free throws. Once again, it felt like a miracle every time a Michigan three found its mark; they finished 4-for-17, and that wasn't a bad finish after going 1-for-11 in the first half.

Simpson's 17 points weren't enough to overcome a lack of help [Campredon]

The offense sputtered along thanks to yeoman's work from Simpson, who repeatedly worked his way into the lane for a team-high 17 points on 7-for-12 field goals; unfortunately, his 3-of-6 mark from the line included an empty trip that could've put the Wolverines up four points after the final media timeout.

Instead, Dosunmu—who'd finish with a career-high 27 points—blew by Simpson to tie the game a couple possessions later. David DeJulius took the lead back with a pretty baseline floater, then Michigan had two more chances to stretch the lead at the line; Austin Davis bricked the front end of a one-and-one, then Franz Wagner missed two bonus free throws after pulling down a critical rebound that drew Cockburn's fifth foul. Trent Frazier tied the game at the line by converting both ends of a one-and-one after a Teske reach-in, setting up the game's final sequence.

Michigan now has a number of pressing concerns. Two straight home losses have dropped them to 11-8 overall and 2-6 in the Big Ten; falling twice in a row at home now has them squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble. While there's still plenty of time to make it games, it's hard to see how they'll accomplish that if Livers has to miss time, and it's hard to feel good about his status considering he appeared to reaggravate his injury after only 19 minutes back on the court. With or without Livers, someone—preferably multiple someones—needs to make a dang jump shot.

While a date at Nebraska on Tuesday should provide some respite, it's also a game Michigan can little afford to lose.

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Revenge for the first game—and for the rejected otter mascot

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

The status of Isaiah Livers remains up in the air as of posting time. The urgency of his return is increasing by the game, though Michigan isn't in as dire a spot as the post-PSU reaction would lead one to believe. The Wolverines remain a seven-seed on the Bracket Matrix and Torvik still has them as a better than 70% bet to make the field—and that doesn't account for Livers's absence, which the committee will factor in.

Dropping another home game would keep Michigan on course for the bubble, however. Michigan can't play their way out of the tournament this weekend but they can sure make the path harder on themselves.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Sponsor note. Become an Alumni Association Member (or upgrade your membership) and you'll have a chance to win courtside(!) seats to the Indiana game on February 16th. See Tom Crean's pants up close and in person! I know he's no longer the coach but his pants are a grad assistant!

Sign up by the 9th to qualify; drawing is on the 10th. Enter the promo code LETSGOBLUE when you sign up.

The Wade family story. Andrew Khan gets the family background on Brandon Wade's departure from Duquesne and enrollment at Michigan:

In September 2018, before his freshman season at Duquense even started, his legs were hurting. It was more serious than shin splints and necessitated multiple MRIs. With treatment and pain tolerance, he gutted through the season, but his shooting numbers suffered. He finally shut it down for a couple of months in the spring.

But the Wades insist that even if Brandon had performed better on the court or gotten more playing time, he would have left Duquesne.

"We had some conversations last year that no parent wants to have," Keith says. "It had zero -- zero -- to do with basketball, which hurts a parent, especially me, more than anything else. Our family is such a basketball-based family."

Keith had coached his sons -- Ryan is a year younger and now a freshman at Holy Cross -- throughout their youth, both at Skyline and AAU.

Being part of the coaching fraternity, Keith says, "There was no way in hell I'm allowing him to transfer over some minutes."

It's been a rough few years for the Wades; hopefully that's in the past.

Is there a Don Brown problem? Michigan's defense has gotten blasted the last two years by OSU, leading noted Michigan twitter person Manuel Excel to wonder if Don Brown's defenses get worse as the opposition gets better. The effect, if there is any, is small, and the slope of Brown's line is up entirely because Michigan got nuked the last two years:

He describes this as an OSU problem, not a Don Brown problem. I'm a little more willing to put blame on Brown since OSU had Michigan downloaded the last two years—raise your hand if you're long-yardage conversion on a short throw—and Michigan had little to no response. That might be a program issue rather than a defense issue, but the offense was busy putting up as many yards as OSU gives up in a game in the first half. The defense couldn't fit OSU's most basic run play.

[After THE JUMP: Congratulations, Michigan fans: Illinois is good]