THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Revenge for the first game—and for the rejected otter mascot

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

The status of Isaiah Livers remains up in the air as of posting time. The urgency of his return is increasing by the game, though Michigan isn't in as dire a spot as the post-PSU reaction would lead one to believe. The Wolverines remain a seven-seed on the Bracket Matrix and Torvik still has them as a better than 70% bet to make the field—and that doesn't account for Livers's absence, which the committee will factor in.

Dropping another home game would keep Michigan on course for the bubble, however. Michigan can't play their way out of the tournament this weekend but they can sure make the path harder on themselves.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE LAST TIME

Preview. Recap. Game column:

Sometimes it's just making shots. Michigan went 3/18 from three in a game it lost by nine. Depending on your opinion of Zavier Simpson threes about 14 of them were good to excellent looks that didn't go down at the rate they usually do.

There didn't seem to be any particular reason other than Franz Wagner's wrist injury that Michigan shot 17% from three. There were a lot of other things that went wrong; Michigan could have salvaged the game if they didn't, but the story of the game was Illinois taking advantage of its standout skill—offensive rebounding—while Michigan did not take advantage behind the arc.

That sounds eerily familiar.

7'0", 290-pound freshman center Kofi Cockburn was the biggest difference-maker in Illinois's 71-62 win against Michigan in Champaign back in mid-December. Cockburn proved the harbinger of future post troubles, scoring 19 points, pulling down six offensive rebounds, and blocking four shots. Power forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili added an efficient 12 points, speedy guard Ayo Dosumnu had 14, and reserve guard Andres Feliz chipped in 13.

Jon Teske had a very efficient 16 points on 11 shots to lead Michigan, but Isaiah Livers and Eli Brooks were the only perimeter players who could hit shots. With the Wolverines unable to take advantage of similarly cold outside shooting by Illinois, a 15-6 disadvantage on the offensive boards doomed them.

THE THEM

Illinois is now tied atop the Big Ten with Michigan State, which nobody saw coming after a 9-5 start to the season. Brad Underwood's squad has won five in a row, including road games at Purdue and Wisconsin, in large part because of a system change that's taken the Illini defense from one of the Big Ten's worst to one of its stingiest. Illinois is doing a much, much better job of containing teams by going for fewer turnovers; they boast the best two-point defense in the conference and third-best overall.

Cockburn has been a star; he's nationally ranked in usage, 2P%, rebounding rates on both ends, block rate, and fouls drawn. He's coming off a 22-point, 15-rebound, three-block game to win KenPom MVP honors against Purdue. His efficiency in the post comes and goes against good teams; I don't need to tell you how Michigan has done on post defense.

Dosumnu hasn't taken the leap many anticipated when he passed on the NBA to return for his sophomore season. While still a terror in transition, his halfcourt game remains limited—he's still not a great playmaker or outside shooter, so the main halfcourt focus is just to keep him from getting momentum towards the basket.

Giorgi B. has been a reliable third option, providing inside scoring chops, the occasional three-pointer, and decent passing out of the high post. After beginning the season as a starter, Feliz has settled into a bench scorer role that suits him well, and he still ends up playing the majority of the team's minutes. He has a similar game to Dosumnu—better attacking the basket than shooting jumpers—so it makes sense to stagger their playing time a bit.

Starting guard Da'Monte Williams has one of the lowest usage rates I've ever seen from a starter (8.7%) and that's been for the best: he's shooting a bleak 2-for-22 from downtown and turning the ball over on 30% of his scant possessions. Defense must be his strongsuit.

Trent Frazier has taken a remarkable journey from freshman offensive centerpiece to sophomore Dosumnu sidekick to, now, an efficient, low-usage Just A Shooter™. He's a career 38% three-point shooter and the one Illini player you absolutely cannot lose on the perimeter.

There had, of late, been a second such player in breakout sophomore wing Alan Griffin, but he's suspended for this game and the next after getting a little stompy in the Purdue game:

Yeah, you can't do that. Griffin has been a strong presence on the offensive boards, excellent finisher around the hoop, and a 40% three-point shooter on good volume. The Illini will miss him.

That leaves another all-defense, no-offense guy as the next man off the bench in Kipper Nichols, who you may remember randomly scoring a bunch of points against Michigan a few years ago. He's a capable offensive rebounder but his shooting and turnover numbers have been awful. That does it for players who get more than emergency minutes, though with Griffin sidelined we may see another face or two, assuming he hasn't stepped on them.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Illinois is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country. They cover for a lot of that by rebounding nearly 40% of their missed shots and getting to the line with regularity. That approach worked better in nonconference play than so far in the Big Ten—the threes still aren't falling and now the twos aren't going down as frequently.

The defense has been excellent. They're contesting everything around the hoop, preventing three-point looks, protecting the glass, and avoiding fouls. While they don't create many turnovers anymore, that's been a fine sacrifice—they've leaped from 108th to 46th in adjusted defense this season.

THE KEYS

Make shots. Please. I beg you.

Defend the glass. While the Teske-Cockburn matchup will get a lot of the focus here, there are other offensive rebounding threats on the Illini—Bezhanishvili and Nichols are both capable of creating second chances. Illinois leans heavily on making up for poor shooting by playing volleyball on the glass; everyone needs to be hitting the boards before looking to get up the court.

Limit secondary scoring. Cockburn deservedly got most of the attention after the first game, but what almost equally did in Michigan was Giorgi B. going 6/8 on twos and Feliz netting 13 points on ten shots. The Wolverines can grind out a win, even without Livers, if they're forcing Cockburn and Dosumnu to do the heavy lifting; if the other guys are getting in on the party, it's going to be tough to pull this one out.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 3.

[does the happy healthy groin dance]
[is arrested]