For the second straight year, Michigan picked up a kicking transfer. This time they've nabbed one with two years of eligibility, and off the roster of an upcoming opponent.

Zvada was the kicker who scored all 12 points against Ohio State a couple of years back. He's also one of the best kickers in America; by my statisics his career EPA is fourth among active kickers, behind Boise State's Jonah Dalmas, Arizona's Tyler Loop, and last year's Groza Graham Nicholson, who transferred from Miami (No not THAT Miami) to Alabama. Zvada was a 2022 Groza Semifinalist, and carries a career 34/40 mark with a long of 56 in two seasons with Arkansas State.

RANKINGS

Only On3 has a ranking for him. He's their #3 portal kicker and an 80. Since Zvada was only in the portal for as long as it takes to announce he's going to Michigan, it's reasonable to assume not even On3's really bothered to look at him yet. The players ahead of him there are Nicholson (who's missed 7 extra points over his career), and South Carolina's little-used big leg who committed Notre Dame. They all have 80s.

PFF had Zvada 62nd last year with a 78.8 score, and 5th (one spot behind Jake Moody) in 2023 with a 91.5.

CAREER THUS FAR

Zvada's been the starting kicker for Arkansas State since 2022, when he won the job as a true freshman, hit from 29, 38, 34, and 45 against Ohio State in the opener, and kicked a 56-yarder against Texas State after missing one from 51. Zvada finished his first season 17/18, with an average attempt distance of 36.3. He had a PAT blocked, but went 30/30 on the rest of them and was a Groza Semifinalist.

Because #College Kickers Are Weird, Zvada then whiffed on three of his next four to start the 2023 season, with misses from 44, 43, and 34 yards. He went 17/19 the rest of the way, but one of those misses was a chip shot against Coastal Carolina. He also nailed a 53-yarder against Southern Miss and went 41/41 on extra points. Career kick chart:

[After THE JUMP: Thing this is like]

Compare this to the Moodychart.

SCOUTING

Is kicker. He kicks right-footed. His Kohl's video shows an enormous amount of lift.

This is evident in games too.

OFFERS

He snuck into the portal and Michigan got him right away so we don't know who else would have had interest. Probably a lot of schools.

HIGH SCHOOL

Zvada went to Valley Christian in Chandler, Arizona, whence Quinton McCoy remains the one and only four-star in the Rivals database. The only other recruit with a rating in the database is a 2-star DB who went to New Mexico State in 2020.

STATS

Here are his two seasons compared to Michigan's last two kickers since 2021. The important thing to note is the "bad" season still turned out better than a Jake Moody year, Kenny Allen's best season, and "Kicking Competency" Lopata.

Note: Pre-2021 numbers are missing a tiny adjustment.*

That said, the story is a bit similar to James Turner, in that both had some wobbles early after a breakout season that were mostly out of the system by October.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

We are making much less of a deal about this than we should. He's a dependable kicker entering his true junior season who already kicked one of the longest college field goals of the last two seasons. #CollegeKickers and all that but Giddyup!

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* [For the nerds: my file with all of the NCAA field goal attempts since 2006 got corrupted. I redownloaded 2021-'23 and tried to rebuild my calculations. To calculate EPA per kick I start with College Football Data's expected points for field goals. However my numbers have an increasing adjustment for kicks beyond 43 yards, to account for the fact that teams without a kicker who can make those won't even attempt them, choosing instead to attempt an unlikely 4th down conversion or a low-value punt.

This makes more sense when you consider a lot of deep tries are end-of-half attempts that don't result in field position for the opponent. Anyway I had to recreate this adjustment so I might have a decimal off here or there.]