What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. Brian appropriated it, dropped it for a few years, and then I stole it from him. Regarding the number of tickets: typically its’ 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + a Flex TE/Slot + nickel + extra DL. I’m adding a 2nd RB, a 2nd QB, and a couple of receivers for a total of 30.

PACK YOUR BAGS

They’re going to start.

1. WR/Slot/PR Ronnie Bell

Put the “speed” in #SpeedinSpace then had the beginnings of a Biletnikoff campaign until he tore the ACL in his right knee on a 31-yard punt return. Should be back for spring and full go by fall camp. Unpossibly open on crossing routes, fountain of YAC, perfect teammate who specializes in getting down to the 1 so someone else can score.

2. RB/KR Blake Corum

Corn-devouring JK Dobbins-like little juker, and good receiver out of the backfield with surprising strength and wheels that don’t stop churning. Set the bar at “Mike Hart but fast” and hit it before his injury.

3. K Jake Moody

Usually a consensus All-American goes to the NFL. Reigning Lou Groza winner coming off a 23/25 (4/6 from 40+) performance that set program records. Before that: passed Quinn Nordin as a freshman, then had two quiet/bad years behind Wild Thing. Range (career long is 52) isn’t ludicrous, but is still like 95th percentile.

4. TE Erick All

Vikingr scourge of land grant universities, was the ultimate tell every time he crossed the formation, and it rarely mattered. Spectacular blocker, moonlights at fullback, and all that from a guy who arrived as a jumbo receiver who may outrun your safety. Early career dropsies disappeared: he 28/28 on routine throws, 6/10 on tough catches, and 2/6 on circus attempts by my charting.

5. P Brad Robbins

The punts go up, then you wait, then you wait some more, then you wait some more, then you pass the point when your brain is trained to expect the punt to come down, then you wait some more, and then it’s fair caught. Net 44.2 last year is underrated if anything—Michigan was 4th nationally in punt efficiency despite using the less efficient NFL “tornado”-style punt formation.

6. RG Zak Zinter

Type specimen for what Harbaugh wants in an offensive lineman (three parts humongous, one part agile), and you can tell because they constantly compare everyone else to him. Started as a true freshman in 2020 and was the fulcrum of last year’s power rushing attack, earning a star on our charts by the end of the season. Looking to pave the way to All-Big Ten with the blood of his enemies.

7. LT Ryan Hayes

Type specimen for what twice-former Michigan OL coach Greg Frey wanted in a tackle (super agile, big-footed, big-handed tight end who packs on weight), got to 307 in Year 4. Hype got high when he leveled some overrated Washington DL last September, tailed off as he struggled while left in one-on-one situations with some elite PSU and UGA rushers.

8. NT Mazi Smith

His 5-star mate left for the NFL, but the once-redshirted Mazi Smith was by far the better of the pair and is now Michigan’s only returning starter on the DL. Blossomed in Year 3 into a functional nose with some pass rush and surprising stamina. Arrived raw, so there’s still unexplored ceiling. Not a planet but a functional bear.

9. CB DJ Turner II

Where were you when we were panicking? Breakout season flipped Michigan’s biggest positional weakness into a survivable one. Speed, playmaking were more than adequate to prevent all but the ludicrous receptions (shakes fist at OSU receiver room). Not from Detroit, but coulda been.

10. LG Trevor Keegan

Won a year-long battle with older Chuck Filiaga for the LG starting job despite missing time with injury. Graham Glasgow-esque in the decisions he makes on the fly. Tackle-shaped guard in Yr 4 with 3 seasons left to play and ceiling to explore.

11. S Rod Moore

Linebacker in a cornerback’s body whom Ohio high school coaches still mad Ryan Day skipped over for bigger 4*s and 5*s. Won the third safety starting job as a true freshman, was slated to take over Dax role until they recruited some. Going to play a lot of games here.

UNLESS SOMETHING WEIRD HAPPENS

Category of guys you will see on the field a lot whether or not they’re technically getting the start.

12(tie). QB Cade McNamara

Returning starter of reigning Big Ten champs. Accurate, preternatural pre-snap reader, doesn’t panic, bad reads are super-rare (nonexistent before OSU/UGA games). Has to see it before the snap though: Does not RPO. Will not keep on zone reads. Arm strength is college-average, low for NFL. Short with low release point causes more bats than usual. Weirdly has the same eligibility as…

12(tie). QB JJ McCarthy

The X-Factor. Played most of 2nd half of CFP semi vs UGA because he was their best shot at a comeback. Five-star, Harbaugh-esque personality, run option with great wheels, makes insane passes with cannon arm guided by laser 66% of the time and completely misfires 33% of the time. Young Gardner tendency to leave pocket for adventurous rollouts, risking 30-yard sacks. True soph bump could take him anywhere from 2010 Gardner to 2019 Trevor Lawrence. Could win the job, would be a run option rotational guy again if McNamara does.

14. RB Donovan Edwards

The other 2021 5-star who earned a specialist role later last season. Stand-up RB with some oomph who’s also a bona fide WR: a terrifying package for teams without All-Americans at linebacker, which was everyone but Georgia. Highest rated passer in school history on a per-throw basis (1/1 for 75 yards and a TD) and MGoBlog charting (1 DO+). Will move up to solid #2 back role and feature.

15. TE Luke Schoonmaker

Standard Michigan grow-a-Northeasterner converted from QB, deployed on schedule to great effect. Actually saw more snaps than Erick All for the season, and even in some games that All was available. Three parts receiver/better than average blocker/cruel weapon to rip open Iowa. NFL upside as a leaping seam threat.

16. WR Cornelius Johnson

I am bunching all of the non-Bell receivers here because they’re all going to play. Of them CJ played the most. Ideally sized, excellent speed, can break tackles, block, haul in difficult throws, embarrass a CB with a move, and block punts, but has yet to put it all together.

17. WR Roman Wilson

The most oh God not another Ohio State wide receiver of the group, and the one you’re most hoping to see when the camera pans down the sideline. Uncanny acceleration and speed, plus hands, and improving routes. Went from bad blocker to a fairly decent one. Major deep threat and some underrated sky to his game.

18. WR Andrel Anthony

Freshman receivers suck, but his first campaign drew comparisons to Braylon and (literally) every other receiver Michigan wideout to wear #1. Breakout performance in hometown East Lansing chased Daylen Baldwin to the NFL. Could be the best of all of them, but Biletnikoff run is probably 2023.

19. Slot WR Mike Sainristil

Coach favorite, spring hype magnet, and steady route artisan slot who overcame a history of drops to be McNamara’s favorite chain-mover/4th down slant target. Miscast in 2020 as an outside receiver, but showed he can Jeremy Gallon a little bit. Will never be tall. Rumor of move to defense from discredited insider not rejected out of hand because Sainristil is so, so good on special teams coverage.

20. Slot-H/Returner AJ Henning

Running back shaped slot bug whose role increased over the course of the season after chasing Giles Jackson to Washington. JJ McCarthy’s favorite target going back to high school. End-around threat already, could be lethal once he develops a downfield game.

21. HSP Michael Barrett

You can remove the Viper from the defense, but as soon as Barrett was healthy Macdonald couldn’t help but put the returning hybrid space player back on the field when opponents went with 2 TEs, and was rewarded with Viper-esque play. Charting indicated going 4-3 with Barrett at SAM was more effective than Mac’s preferred 5-2 looks. Still an odd fit in an odd system. QB/RB threat on fake punts.

FAIRLY SAFE BET

Established rotationers or co-starters behind departed super seniors, plus a transfer Rimington candidate. Probably going to start, but still have to win it.

22. ILB Junior Colson

Defensive X-factor/opposite of Hill-Green. Talent is evident, speed is good enough to keep up with any RB not related to Dalvin Cook. Doesn’t make many huge mistakes, but made a ton of small and medium-sized ones when thrust onto the field as a true freshman starter. Haitian immigrant expected to be on the raw side for true freshmen, but regressed over the course of last year. Reset could mean he gets better or a LOT better.

23. ILB Nikhai Hill-Green

Michigan’s 3rd ILB was quietly grading out better than Ross and Colson, though when NHG busted it was loud and awful. Small-bodied but aggressive downhill attacker and underrated edge rusher. Athletic ceiling makes him a bit more situational. First in line to replace Ross, will probably be fine, and a fan-favorite, but not a star.

24. S RJ Moten

Athletic, high 4-star who earned the starting 3rd safety job as a true sophomore then lost it to a true freshman. Unfairly remembered too well for dropping a gift-wrapped INT versus MSU, and another vs OSU. Lost last job for the TD he gift-wrapped for Northwestern. Now has Hawkins’s job in his sights, just has to catch it.

25. C Victor Oluwatimi

Grad transfer was a Rimington finalist and 2nd team all-ACC at Virginia last year, and should be an improvement over the small and stiff, but smart and fast walk-on Vastardis. Did not allow a sack last season. Expect a few early road bumps as he gets used to a new offense. Fear is that OL transfers rarely work out, but that axiom usually doesn’t apply to experienced FBS starters moving to a better OL.

IN A BATTLE

My guesses for who replaces the other departing starters where there isn’t a clear heir-apparent.

26. DT Kris Jenkins

The surprising NFL departure of Chris Hinton opens the door for the next generation of DTs. While Donovan Jeter is a 6th year and played more last year, Jenkins was a build-a-bear not due before 2022, but had a big impact (and a few big errors) while still in his growing phase last year. A high-caliber athlete with NFL blood, Jenkins could explode into baby Hurst, or have a more gradual climb as the first backup and pass-rush option. I’m gonna gamble he wins the starting job, but not until fall camp.

27. EDGE Braiden McGregor

Moves up the list past guys who’ve played a lot more like Upshaw and Morris because I saw that play, and McGregor is clearly Michigan’s best shot of those who’ve seen the field for a  new Hutchinson. It says something that the gatekeepers at Michigan approved a “Next man up” feature on McGregor at The Athletic. Had Hutch-like rankings before he blew out his knee as a senior in high school, which cost him 2020 and made 2021 more like a true freshman campaign. Looked like true Fr Hutch out there.

28. DL Michael Morris

DE/DT tweener who got a lot of run last year as Hutchinson’s backup, and is therefore first in line for one of the open “OLB” jobs. Brighter future is probably inside, where his first step and solid base make him a Wormley-like dual threat. Limited pass rusher as a pure edge, and not a linebacker at all. Team's most anticipated spring roster weigh-in.

29. CB Will Johnson

Fans were seriously asking if enrolling early meant the super-tall 5-star legacy was allowed to suit up for the CFP semifinal. Even Woodson and Marlin weren’t starting until a good five weeks into their freshman campaigns, but I expect to see The Next One on the field long before the NCAA initiates their investigation into Ryan Day for tampering with a Michigan signee this month. Having done most of the Defense vs Georgia UFR this week, I also expect the freshman, mistakes and all, to be a big upgrade at boundary corner.

30. RT Trente Jones

We have to choose one of Jones or Barnhart to inherit the open right tackle job, and it seemed pretty clear last year that Michigan was grooming Jones for the job while using Barnhart as a swingman. It could go either way, but Jones fits the mold as a more athletic, long-armed grow-a-guy, and showed off impressive run blocking last year in the tackle-in-a-TE-shirt role while Barnhart struggled while filling in at guard.

31. Nk Zeke Berry

Really the entire secondary depth chart is available here; if Michigan loves a 3rd cornerback they can move Turner or Johnson inside; if they like a free safety they could give Dax Hill’s old job to Moore. They also have a Peppers-shaped object in Jordan Morant, and LBish and CBish freshman options in Keon Sabb and Kody Jones. So this is just a guess that Berry, who’s verrrrry Peppers-like, becomes an unsittable option among a lot of good ones.

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NOT STARTERS BUT CONTRIBUTING

Either they’re trapped in a rotation by a solid depth chart, they have a hard ceiling in some facet of their game, or they’re some kind of specialist or situational hybrid. You will see them on the field, but maybe not in the starting lineup.

DT Donovan Jeter. Human acid test for OL coaching: plays too high to be disruptive versus well-instructed OL (Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, NWern) but very effective versus poorly coached OL who stand up and try to play grab-ass (MSU/PSU). DE background pops up occasionally when the have him loop around as a pass-rusher.

OL Karsen Barnhart. Beloved by the staff, but really struggled when all the guards were out last year. Probably too small a sample—if he doesn’t win the RT job he’ll be their 6th man and play as much as Filiaga did.

TE Joel Honigford. Former tackle converted back to tight end and was almost as effective at blocking as All. As a receiver he’s a former tackle, but has a role in any Harbaughffense.

DT Rayshaun Benny. Super-talented, super-eager to see the field. My guess is he passes some of last year’s DTs and fills the role that Jenkins had in 2021, with a blowup scheduled for 2023.

DT Julius Welschof. Surprisingly played quite a lot late last season after earning the 3rd DT role. Still an odd duck who’s too long and tall to be a DT and too slow to be a DE, but a bit more bulk makes him a viable passing downs tackle.

CB Gemon Green. The book on Green is he has the speed an athleticism to stay with receivers, but fritzes out when the ball is in the air. PI and giving up contested catches seem like the most fixable problems a CB could have.

EDGE Jaylen Harrell. Underrated player because he isn’t a high-caliber pass-rusher, which is kind of important at his position, but is very good at setting the edge as a run defender and can back into coverage like a linebacker. Useful player, also passable.

EDGE Taylor Upshaw. Vincent Gray vibes where his playing time/coach quotes/PFF scores are at odds with our grading, or that just might be a privileged point of view that’s unfair to the next Rondell Biggs. It’s been ages since Michigan didn’t have a Brandon Jake Frank Chase Rashan Taco Uche Kwity Hutchinson Ojabo on one or both edges. It’s also starkly apparent that Upshaw is not one of those guys.

DT Jess Speight. Was the backup nose last year, wins a lot of battles he shouldn’t, but he gets moved in ways the scholarship guys don’t.

RB Tavierre Dunlap. With Haskins gone Michigan needs a mooseback, and the “starting” two are both receiver-ish types. Dunlap is the only Haskins-like lest on the roster.

RB Leon Franklin. Walk-on transfer who was just a guy last year, but ahead of Dunlap.

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Switching the format from here to list guys in positional order.

PUSHING FROM BEHIND

Category for younger players expected to graduate from “Waiting their turn” or more established but lower-ceilinged players hoping to hold off the next wave a little bit longer. Not expected to start, but wouldn’t be that big of a shock to see them on the field. Someone from this group is sure to graduate to a regular contributor.

RB CJ Stokes. Hart’s first recruit has some similarities with Corum, has to adjust from a low Southeast private league.

TE Carter Selzer. Last year’s mission was to get Selzer a catch. Going to have a hard time holding off…
TE Matthew Hibner. Latest Eastern who-dat, reaching age of tight end maturity in 2022 or 2023.
TE Louis Hansen. Same as ^ but a year younger and they started rating these guys 4-stars.

C Greg Crippen. IMG product got on the field in backup situations as True Fr, didn’t suck. Oluwatimi brought in to give Crippen another year of grooming—if Crippen wins the job it’s Cesar Ruiz 2.0.
G Reece Atteberry. Next guy in last year, next guard up when Keegan/Zinter clear out.
OL Griffin Korican. Tackle-shaped walk-on who had FBS scholarship offers, been on the edge of the depth chart for ages.

NT Kenneth Grant. Mammoth-sized nose, future captain-like personality, could see backup snaps this year since nobody else on the roster is like him.

EDGE Derrick Moore. Near 5-star edge with some DT in him, will have a role if he’s an instant-impact pass-rusher.

ILB Kalel Mullings. McGrone-alike had some nice moments in relief of Ross.
ILB Jaydon Hood. Bush-like 2021 was earning practice praise by November.
ILB Joey Velazquez. Rocked up hybridish two-sporter, coaches love.

Nk/LB Keon Sabb. 5-star hybrid safety from IMG could be ready mid-year.
S Makari Paige. Boring, rangy, played some as a Fr in 2020, looked like a Fr.
S Caden Kolesar. Walk-on is a Kolesar, also their best kick/punt coverage player.
S/Nk Jordan Morant. Peppers-ian high 4-star set back by an ankle injury last 2 years.

CB Ja'Den McBurrows. Got up to 4th in the rotation last year, could win a starting job, could be another year out.
CB Keshaun Harris. Walk-on that McBurrows passed. Recruited off the track team.
CB/Nk Kody Jones. True freshman, twitchy athlete, Michigan pursued him like a top-100 prospect.

WAITING THEIR TURN

Grow-a-bodies, raw recruits, etc. expected to contribute down the line, with their class year.

QB Jayden Denegal. 2022. Speight-alike.
QB/ATH Alex Orji. 2022. Has an arm, could be a LB or Barrett down the road. VT decommit.

TE Colston Loveland. 2022. Jumbo WR, Gronk ceiling, has to adjust from Idaho ball.
TE Marlin Klein. 2022. Longer-term German prospect.

WR Cristian Dixon. 2021. Developmental downfield threat.
WR Darrius Clemons. 2022. College-ready freshman, Cornelius Johnson-ish.
WR Tyler Morris. 2022. Ronnie Bell or Golden Tate 2.0, but injury recovery redshirt beckons.
WR Amorion Walker. 2022. Grow-a-Nico kit.

T Jeffrey Persi. 2020. Frey-type in late developmental stage.
T/G Giovanni El-Hadi. 2021. Big-time prospect. Only a matter of time.
C/G Raheem Anderson. 2021. Cass Tech’s 4-year center.
T Tristan Bounds. 2021. Frey-type in early developmental stage.
T Andrew Gentry. 2022. Stueberesque 2020 top-50 coming off a 2-year Mormon mission.
G Alessandro Lorenzetti. 2022. Bendy find who hit every recruiting industry blind spot.
G Connor Jones. 2022. Well-liked interior prospect for down the road.

NT Ikechukwu Iwunnah. 2021. Super-duper raw nose in development.
DT George Rooks. 2021. Top-heavy DE/DT who saw the field a little last year.
DT Mason Graham. 2022. Ryan Glasgow if he played in an elite California league.
DE/DT Dominick Giudice. 2021. Workout warrior.

EDGE TJ Guy. 2021. Grow-a-Kwity got some play last year, darkhorse DE option.
EDGE Kechaun Bennett. 2021. Don Brown-approved grow-an-edge prospect.
EDGE/LB Micah Pollard. 2022. Tweener/son of NFL tight end.

ILB Tyler McLaurin. 2021 heady OLB/LB who redshirted.
ILB Jimmy Rolder. 2022. Raw late riser.
ILB Deuce Spurlock. 2022. Grow-a-sideline-to-sideliner.

CB Myles Pollard. 2022. Stribling-esque freshman hopefully not needed yet.
CB Eamonn Dennis. 2020. Sainristilian slotback in Year 3 of a CB conversion.
S Damani Dent. 2022. Class sleeper, athlete, raw.

K/P Tommy Doman. Sorry the Groza and a Ray Guy candidate returned, but stick around.

GETTING LATE EARLY

Category for players who haven’t seen the field much and are dealing with younger/same eligibility guys who have, or hyped recruits getting more talk of early playing time at their positions.

QB Alan Bowman. Texas Tech transfer managed to look pretty bad in garbage time. Good to keep around for depth.

DT Jack Stewart. Moved over from OL then not heard from again.

EDGE Gabe Newburg. Don Brown anchor who had Year 1s playing over him in Year 3.

CB/S German Green. Special teamer.
CB/S Jalen Perry. Got on a field, wasn’t the answer, and now the cavalry’s here.
CB/S Quinten Johnson. Had the one really bad play on a fake punt.