Defending a 1-Dimensional Offense - Michigan @ Indiana
As we all know, the experts (lol) are predicting a shoot out this weekend due to Michigan's potent offense against IU's inept defense and Indiana's potent receiving corp against Michigan's inept secondary. Note the distinction hower: potent offense compared to potent receiving corp. Now don't get me wrong, Darius Willis' stats are pretty good, so we need to protect against the run game, but really:
IU Offense (all against donkeys, per Brian)
- Passing: 304.3 yds/game (11th nationally)
- Rushing: 113.0 yds/game (96th nationally)
Michigan Offense (including 2 BCS)
- Passing: 231.5 yds/game (50th nationally)
- Rushing: 331.3 yds/game (2nd nationally) DENARD!!!!!!!!!!!
We are deadly on offense and IU can't focus on one aspect (DENARD AGAIN!!). We, however, have the luxury of running a bend don't break against IU's offense without as high a risk of getting gashed on the ground. Given this, what are the odds it is actually a shootout?
September 30th, 2010 at 2:15 PM ^
No one will read this thread, as we're all following the Lloyd Brady photoshop thread.
September 30th, 2010 at 4:13 PM ^
Oh shit! I totally forgot about Lloyd Brady. I'll be back later...probably...
September 30th, 2010 at 2:15 PM ^
Secondary is not good, will be attacked.
September 30th, 2010 at 2:16 PM ^
This is the reason I'm confident that it won't be a particularly close game. I don't see IU keeping MIchigan under 40 as long as we need to keep the foot on the gas and if the D keeps up its level of play in non-Umass games we should give up 24-28.
September 30th, 2010 at 2:17 PM ^
somewhere that Michigan will have 6 INT
September 30th, 2010 at 2:17 PM ^
seriously, I'll be stunned if we don't run for another 300+ yards, and I have Denard at over 150 rushing. We won't stop them completely, but enough to win.
The end zone will stop our offense more often than IU will.
September 30th, 2010 at 2:20 PM ^
run for like 2,750 yards on us last year? Alright, so maybe they are two dimensional.
I don't feel comfortable with predictions of a blowout in the road in a Big Ten opener, I don't know, maybe I should, but....
September 30th, 2010 at 2:21 PM ^
I could see IU putting up points in the mid thirties if we don't bring our A game. Mid 20s if we do. I don't think either of those will be enough.
September 30th, 2010 at 2:25 PM ^
and I think things will get pretty dicey.
September 30th, 2010 at 2:58 PM ^
I think a big part of this game is going to be our rushing offense keeping IU's offense off the field. This is why our defense looked "good" against BG - ToP and drives of 8 or more plays.
I'm weary of our D getting stuck on the field and our special teams screwing things up even worse - although hopefully they kick it to Darryl "B.O.B" Stonum.
September 30th, 2010 at 2:34 PM ^
September 30th, 2010 at 10:35 PM ^
At least we are trying something different, and utilizing our young players. I am very interested to watch our frosh DBs in this game.
September 30th, 2010 at 2:38 PM ^
that we likely have the edge in talent and efficiency. And I appreciate the analysis. But Michigan does have to play this game, and has to play it on the road (equals 9-plus-odd assumed points for the home squad). That and the bounces of the game could combine to make it close.
September 30th, 2010 at 2:43 PM ^
I always thought homefield advantage hovered around 3pts... Either way, you're right, we gotta play it, and we'll need our secondary to play one of its better games of the year.
September 30th, 2010 at 2:44 PM ^
I am firm believer in home advantage, especially for college sports and I know we have to show up in order to win, but a 9 point home field advantage? At Indiana? This isn't 90,000+ at the Shoe we're wlaking in to. The laws of physics aren't altered to make the ball bounce in IU's direction more frequently than our direction.
September 30th, 2010 at 4:04 PM ^
But what about the laws of the Michigan BLANK Hating God??
September 30th, 2010 at 7:10 PM ^
If the past 100 years are any indication, I don't think He cares much for Indiana's football program.
September 30th, 2010 at 6:03 PM ^
asserted that this was the nationwide average. I had always heard it was a touchdown.
September 30th, 2010 at 7:19 PM ^
What he actually said was that the home team should have an increased 9% chance of winning, not nine extra points.
September 30th, 2010 at 7:29 PM ^
wrong.
September 30th, 2010 at 7:25 PM ^
apologies.
September 30th, 2010 at 3:50 PM ^
Home field advantage? There may be more Michigan fans there than Indiana fans. We could have the home field advantage.
September 30th, 2010 at 9:19 PM ^
I get where you're coming from*, but eeeeeeehh, it's not like IU's stadium is a Pit of Despair for road teams. And MICH has already shown the ability to win on the road.
(*BTW, 9 points?!?!? 9!?!? CW is 3 points for the home team.)
September 30th, 2010 at 2:54 PM ^
SEND FOUR GUYS AFTER THE GD QUARTERBACK!!!! THE FRONT THREE AREN'T ENOUGH!!!!
It doesn't have to be every down, but the fourth guy needs to come from differing angles to at least keep their OL guessing. How else are we going to hurry the QB and get our 6 INT's? We've seen the dime, so now send one of those CBs in on a blitz off the edge. Sure, he might get crushed by a tackle, but that could open up something for RVB or Martin.
We don't need a lot of sacks, but we have to make the opposing qb's feel more urgency.
September 30th, 2010 at 4:49 PM ^
I would think that as the season progresses, you will see more wrinkles added to our defense (e.g. creative blitzing such as you noted like blitzing DBs out of the dime/nickel packages). Not too disimilar to how our offense is introducing new wrinkles every week (e.g. passes set up by faking QB draws, power runs, etc).
We started seeing some new playcalls against BG (e.g. man-to-man, 6 man blitzes, etc), and as our defense gets better at running our base defense, we should be able to add some occasional blitzes and aggressive coverages.
As we get more speed and depth in our secondary over the next few years, I would imagine we could run aggressive coverages and blitz packages more often.
September 30th, 2010 at 3:00 PM ^
Indiana played us down to the wire last year at home I don't think it will be a lot different this year. Brian seems to think it's going to be a no contest sort of game but that's just silly. Indiana can't help that they have played a bunch of donkeys this year. They have beaten who has been put in front of them handily with an offense that runs the pistol with a senior qb and some good wr's. If we come out early and get a 3 and out or a turnover then I think we can dominate the game. But if we give them confidence early and they score on their first drive then it's going to be a long day where we will need to score every drive to keep the pressure on IU. Michigan 42 IU 33
September 30th, 2010 at 3:13 PM ^
- Denard Robinson
- David Molk
- Spread 2H
QED
September 30th, 2010 at 3:19 PM ^
They beat Western Kentucky and Akron by 17 and 15 points respectively. I don't call that "handily" at all, given how terrible those teems seem to be.
That said, I'm going to assume all our games will be shoot-outs and be pleasantly surprised when some (many??) are not.
September 30th, 2010 at 3:22 PM ^
I think you'd almost have to bet on Michigan putting up atleast 45 points when you size up Indiana's defense. So with our offense rolling, we're going to force Indiana to go the full length of the field several times during the game. In result they will have to do pretty well to put up 23 points against us. GO BLUE!!
September 30th, 2010 at 3:36 PM ^
Well thus far this season they have been one dimensional but I don't think we can ever go into a game this season assuming that we are going to shut down a particular component of another team's offense. Our defense does not have the luxury of looking past anyone at this stage, especially since this guy torched us last year.
September 30th, 2010 at 4:05 PM ^
21/38 for 270 yards is not my definition of "torched". Their RB had 15 carries for 67 yards until that 85 yard rumble. We frequently killed our own drives with bad snaps. We lost the turnover battle. That game was last year's UMass game.
If our LBs don't show up again, it will be closer, but our offense should cut through their defense like a warm knife to butter.
September 30th, 2010 at 3:39 PM ^
I know people have been ragging on our secondary, but to be honest I don't see Floyd, Rogers and Kovacs making that many mistakes. In fact, they all seem to be playing pretty well.
I know this goes against the conventional wisdom since our D-Line is thought to be pretty decent, but from what I've seen the main issue with our passing defense has been lack of pressure on the Quarterback. Maybe it's the 3-3-5 and not the players. I dunno. What I do know is that last year the opposing QBs seemed to have all day to throw, and that doesn't seem to be much different this year.
I know Cam Gordon has been beaten a couple of times and those couple of times went for big plays, but he wasn't the reason UMASS was able to constantly move their offense through the air. UMASS showed that short passes work just as well against our D as the long ball, and lack of pressure on the QB seemed to be at the heart of it.
There's a reason NFL teams pay top dollar for defensive linemen and not so much for defensive backs: it's because putting pressure on the QB is the easiest and most efficient way of disrupting a passing attack.
September 30th, 2010 at 3:49 PM ^
In fact, I think someone once screamed:
"SEND FOUR GUYS AFTER THE GD QUARTERBACK!!!! THE FRONT THREE AREN'T ENOUGH!!!!"
I can't remember who it was though.
BTW. I asked Mike Martin if he would like some help coming off the edge. Your avatar was his response.
September 30th, 2010 at 4:17 PM ^
Indiana's strength of schedule is really really bad. They have played three teams ranked below Bowling Green in the Sagarin rankings. I don't like our pass defense, but I think that we can at least match the 300 yard average allowed by Towson, WKU, and Akron. I know that we're not supposed to get excited about shredding the defenses of UConn and Bowling Green, but that applies double for Indiana's impressive passing numbers. The more I research Indiana, the more it seems to me that it's going to take some major unpredictables/intangibles for us to lose. If we score less than 38 points in this game it would shock me. If we score 65 again, it won't surprise me at all.
September 30th, 2010 at 4:14 PM ^
If the linebackers show some improvement and play solidly against the run, we will be able to focus a bit more on the pass. Our defense will go as our lbs go, which will probably be true most of the season. DL is solid and secondary is porous. Good lb play will allow us to mask our deficiencies aginst the pass
September 30th, 2010 at 9:01 PM ^
Our defense will go as our defense goes, there is not a single position on the field that will dictate the play of our D. Defensive prowess always has and always be an absolute knife-edge walk between aggression and reaction. Overaggression will get you smoked eventually, and passive play will give you.. UMass.
I get the idea of "Bring an extra guy" but to be honest, I thikn the plan GERG is working on (whcih has had some success) is to allow the front 3 to create enough pressure to move the pocket, not create sacks. The stats never lie, and in this case, there aren't many Qs whose accuracy or QB rating goes up out of the pocket. I think we can credit our D line to many of those interceptions, and I do have belief in GERGs scheme in basically positioning the D to make plays down the field and force the opposing O to execute to the letter.
September 30th, 2010 at 4:38 PM ^
I think the Hoosiers inablity to run the ball will limit the number of long drives their able to put together, as incompletions and execusion errors will cause them to stall. I think if Michigan's secondary can take away big plays and minimize turnovers so that Indiana has to put together long drives we will win comfortably.
September 30th, 2010 at 5:23 PM ^
The Oracle knows this contest will end in a Michigan victory. The Oracle can see 402 yards of total Denardfense en route to a solid beating of said donkey hoosiers. The future is yours.
September 30th, 2010 at 8:02 PM ^
We are not one-dimensional. We are Denardensional!!
He can throw. He can run. He can catch. He can even call plays!!