Help Me Understand Mo Hurst's Draft Ranking
So, the first round is in the books. 3 DTs taken, and on ESPN's "best available" Mo is listed as the 5th best remaining DT available. He won't even be the first Hurst drafted!
I know those rankings aren't gospel, but why is he ranked where he is?
As this site has pointed out many times, not only is he one of the highest rated players according to Pro Football Focus at his position, he's one of the highest rated players ever.
What's the disconnect? Is the enlarged heart at play? Something else? Seems like his combination of size, power, first step, and proven experience would put him in first round territory.
April 27th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
April 27th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
April 27th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
1st round pick is guaranteed money!
1st round pick is 4 yr w 5th year option.
1st round pick would be dead money if something god forbids happens
2nd round pick is nothing guaranteed beyond signing bonus and 1st year contract? So I can see how he would slip knowing he could have a serious issue down the road! Heart issues are scary and can come and go instantly. Didn’t Michigan have no idea about it. I get him slipping the more I think about it.
I get the angst about Hurst, and I hope he's there and the Lions take him in the second round, but I get why everyone passed on him in round #1.
The projected value of the guaranteed contract for the 32nd pick last night is approximately $9,500,000. If Hurst had gone to the Lions at pick #20, the projected value of the contract would be close to $12,000,000.
If I'm a GM and I make a pick that busts in the first round, I don't want everyone and anyone to be able to point at Hurst's health condition and say "See, he's an idiot. Drafted a guy wiith a bad ticker in the first round."
It's one thing to make a bad pick when all the information around you and readily available points to believing that the risk is worth it. There are no number of doctors clearning Hurst that can take away the fact that there is a big red flag here.
I'm also going to guess that if Hurst did have issues down the road, none of the doctors at Michigan or Harvard are going to be willing to chip in on the millions in the guaranteed contract.
It makes sense Hurst dropped. I hope the Lions get him.
April 28th, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^
Whatever "cleared to play" means in the minds of those doctors, it unfortunately does not make his heart fully healthy.
Hurst falling to the second round seems like a classic case of modern scouting missing the forest for the trees. It feels like GMs are focusing so much on measurables (height, combine performance, that sort of thing) and overlooking onfield performance. Measurables are great as a predictive tool, but you can't ignore performance and output, especially when it's against NFL caliber competition. I'm a big believer in modern sabermetrics and analytical tools, but there is something to be said for not letting predictive tools overwhelm actual performance-based statistics, and I think that's what's happening here.
last year taking Peppers?
After all, Peppers was all measurables and fairly low production.
Can't have it both ways.
You actually can and should have it both ways, since both measurables and performance are relevant. I think smart GMs need to look at both. There's nothing wrong with taking a player based on measurables and projection, and if there are rational reasons for lack of quantifiable production (scheme, other obligations, bloodyminded luck, etc) then I'd feel no compunction picking someone without the production. And obviously GMs want to draft at least in part on ceiling, which measurables will project better since they show room for growth. But at the same time, while those are all valid, you shouldn't ignore high level on field performance, which it sure seems like a lot of GMs tend to do while chasing metrics. Basically, smart GMs look at both production and potential, and shouldn't write off a player who's real impressive in one even if they're not as strong in the other.
April 28th, 2018 at 10:11 AM ^
Someone will pick him up somewhere, and the truth will out.
CBS has him ranked as the #1 ranked DT. I do think teams are scared off by his heart condition though. Nick Fairly had the same thing or at least very similar, and he had to miss all of 2017 and his career is in Jeoperdy. Also a very small knock on him is his size. He weigh's the least out of the top 15 DT's in this years draft. Most have him outweighed by 20 - 30 lbs and some even more. I think he will be fine against the run, but there could be GM's who see the heart and the size combo and think he is a little bit of a gamble (again not what I think).
I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to see the Lions grab him in the 2nd though. I was even rooting for them to pick him with their number 20 pick, so if we have a chnace in the 2nd round I would hope they take that!
April 28th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^
And they top 300.
6 foot 4 shooting guard. Cause of concern for teams.
April 28th, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^
but the fact is, in the NFL he's a tweener.
April 27th, 2018 at 10:19 PM ^
April 28th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
even mean? Hurst was a very good college player, but not historically great.
April 28th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
For a DT, Hurst was absolutely historically great for Michigan. 2nd best DT I've ever seen play at Michigan and I've been watching since the 70s. Mark Messner was the best.