Fairly Belated 2019 Recruiting Overview: Offense, Part 1
This usually comes out shortly after Signing Day, but due to a combination of football ennui and blog-wide health issues that forced your author to pick up portions of the basketball coverage the traditional 1,000 foot view for the upcoming football recruiting year has been delayed. Do not complain about this. I am more than capable of writing a long post about local politics instead.
Anyway:
QUARTERBACK
ROSTER. Michigan added Shea Patterson, who should be a true junior if the NCAA appeal doesn't get borked, to redshirt sophomore Brandon Peters and redshirt freshman Dylan McCaffrey. True freshman Joe Milton arrived this spring. Even if Michigan loses someone to a transfer—all but inevitable these days when you have four QBs and no seniors—they'd be in good shape if they didn't ignore QBs all together.
CSI: QB: AWESOME EDIT [sunglasses!]
COMMITS. Surprise: they have not ignored QBs all together, scooping up 3.5* Notre Dame decommit Cade McNamara less than two weeks after he pulled the ripcord on his descent into South Bend. McNamara is a bit of an outlier for Harbaugh QB recruits in that he's not a towering pocket passer. He's a moderate-sized pocket passer at 6'1". The ND decommit happened after a flurry of offers (or offer-type substances) from heavy hitters like Georgia, Alabama, and USC, but since he's in Nevada he might have a hard time moving up the rankings.
FURTHER NEEDS. None.
RECRUITS. None. Michigan has not undertaken 2019 QB recruiting activities since McNamara's commitment. They seem to have fully set their sights on 2020 QBs.
RUNNING BACK/FULLBACK
tbh at this point I'd rather have a 3.5 star [Eric Upchurch]
ROSTER. Michigan has eight tailbacks and is set to lose only Karan Higdon after the season. Chris Evans is the only other upperclassman. Even if Michigan suffers an unexpected bit of attrition the need here is low, especially after the late add of ATH Michael Barrett.
At fullback Michigan has sophomore Ben Mason and freshman Ben VanSumeren and is probably set.
COMMITS. None.
FURTHER NEEDS. They're certainly seeking at least one tailback. Anything additional would be a luxury.
RECRUITS. It's unlikely Michigan pulls a big name. Everyone they're pursuing is out of region and most are from the south. Five-star NC RB Quavaris Crouch is the big name, and he has been on campus. Unfortunately, Lorenz reports that his head coach has moved on and that was Crouch's main Michigan connect. Chances of pulling Crouch away from the rest of the country were already pretty low and are now lower.
Almost everyone else listed as a target is in the "not likely" bin, if not the "why are we even talking about this?" bin. They include LA RB John Emery Jr, who put Michigan in a top eight but remains a highly touted guy from Louisiana; MS RB Jerrion Ealy, who is from Mississippi, committed to Ole Miss, and thinking about a Bama flip; NC RB Khafre Brown, whose brother signed with UNC last year and has a blizzard of unofficial visits to the Tarheels to overcome; IMG's Noah Cain, who's barely drawn mention from the Michigan Insider in months and has 15 Not Michigan crystal balls to five different schools.
The one four star who's drawn chatter who seems achievable is CA RB Zach Charbonnet, who attends Westlake Christian. Westlake does export kids to high academic out of state schools fairly regularly. He seems like a plan B for Notre Dame, which is always a threat for Westlake kids—what what Jimmy Clausen—and 247 has just UCLA and Washington as "warm" schools other than Michigan. Charbonnet made it up for a visit about a month ago.
If it's not Charbonnet it's going to be someone off the radar. This is mostly fine given Michigan's success with highly touted backs over the last… decade? 15 years? I'm not sure there's any period in time during which top 100-ish backs outperform three stars for M. Lorenz suggests that KS RB Breece Hall and MO RB Kyren Williams are lower-rated guys who Michigan will pursue.
WIDE RECEIVER
ROSTER. A year after a bumper crop saw a four-star move to safety, Michigan took only flier recruit Ronnie Bell. Numbers are a priority here despite only having one senior (Grant Perry) unless Michigan wants to have another year like 2017, when they had virtually no experience and it showed.
COMMITS. None.
FURTHER NEEDS. Michigan needs two or three WRs. Outside preferably.
RECRUITS. This is grim. I don't think there's a single crystal ball out for Michigan at WR. There certainly hasn't been one since November started. And there are few targets out there Michigan is even mentioned with. Michigan likely to be just a hat on the table for a USC-bound Kyle Ford; ditto except for Florida State for FL WR John Dunmore. Dunmore was scheduled to be up this weekend, but with the spring game canceled that trip probably is as well. Michigan didn't even draw mention in a Wiltfong article about IN WR David Bell three days ago. MD WR John Metchie is supposed to be on campus this weekend—again, maybe—and is one of those guys who's been to a particular school a ton (PSU in this case) and will be an uphill climb for anyone else.
There are two guys who have recently been on campus. 3* CT WR Cornelius Johnson took an unofficial, but the shape of his recruitment doesn't look particularly promising:
Next up for Johnson is an April 25 visit to California. He also is scheduling a return trip to Notre Dame, and with Penn State offering Monday, a return visit to Happy Valley could take place. He is also looking at trips to West Virginia, Northwestern and Duke.
ND has three crystal ball predictions, FWIW. TX WR Dylan Wright took a swing through Michigan and Notre Dame, and did say Michigan was certainly in line for an official afterwards. That's all you can hope for as an out of region prospect, but Michigan would need 4-5 guys in Wright's position to expect to land one.
That is the entire WR board until Michigan starts firing out offers to three stars.
In all likelihood Michigan's entire skill position class is going to consist of fliers, late bloomers, sleepers, guys who recently emerged from a coma, and the like. These are the wages of having the worst passing offense imaginable and not having a WR coach who can go on the road to recruit until you hire… uh… Jim McElwain.
"Find a new team to root for"?
Ziff72, is that you Dave Brandon? Got some extra time on your hands now that you got paid millions to run something into the ground again?
April 13th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^
So I get negged for not liking this post? Let's see.
We're 1-13 in last 14 vs OSU- Fact
Offense has stunk for a decade- Actually we have a had a top 21 offense in 5 of the last 10 years.
At this point picking up good classes or top kids will be more anomalous than normal- Current class ranked #6. Have a 5 star kid in Hinton.
Equates Washington program and somehow works in Ty Willingham and winless team to current Harbaugh regime in year 4. Complete nonsense. Maybe too much rain has effected outlook?
Not looking forward to season and thinks offensive offense is here for a while.
Bad QB Play- Brought in 5 star trsf to bridge experience gap of 4 star kids.
Bad Oine play- Brought in one of the most respected line coaches in country.
Bad play calling- Removed coach who drew most fans ire.
The entire offensive 2 deep is replacing 2 guys.
Harbaugh has a pretty good track record.
Is there something more he could have done to get you excited?
We have one of the best defenses in the nation and we are playing the best schedule in the country. If your a competitior these next 2 seasons are all your ever going to want from your program. Top recruits being coached by top coaches going against the best competition. How can you not be excited? It's ok to be nervous but to have no expectations for this team based on 1 bad year with clear explanantions(3 qb's, disjointed oline play, injuries, youth) is crazy. What do you need to see to get excited about this team?
EDIT: Just saw that this is "Offense, Part 1." Asked a question about the lack of an OL section, was bad and feel bad.
Did you notice the part where there are no need for bodies? QB and RB are filled up and WR is stocked with the best WR class in Michigan's history. RELAX.
Higdon is the only skill position player we lose this season.
There are always a need for more bodies. Notice how Ohio State recruits 4 and 5 stars at every position yearly. They don't get four 4 star receivers and then take a two star and two 3 stars the next two classes.
They also send alot of underclassmen to the NFL. Nobody on this offense besides Higdon and/or Shea is going to the NFL after this season.
we hear about it every year.
Sure. Michigan also recruits top-notch players at most positions, and save for last year, they usually got a fair number.
I'm not sure Michigan will ever recruit quite as well as OSU under Meyer; that's more a prop to OSU than anything UM is doing. But Michigan currently has the #6 class in the country per 247 and of the 7 commits, 5 are 4*+. OSU's very small class has 2 4* and 1 3*. That won't stay that way, but this post makes it sound like Michigan has just given up recruiting certain positions, while there is no evidence of that happening.
I think Brian has a particular take on this team that, while somewhat true, is also a bit negative for its own sake. So when I read posts like this, I have to remind myself that the same guy who blasted Jim McElwain's hire at WR coach despite a number of people in the business saying it was a really good hire might be a bit biased in his current view of the team's future. Again, not that he's wrong completely, only that he isn't fully right as well.
Wait, so the guy who runs the biggest UM fan site on the net has a bias against Michigan football? Interesting take.
He has shown recently a general distaste for the direction of the program, and while some of that is based on actual results on the field, other parts seem very subjective. Like I said, he shit on McElwain repeatedly for a lot of things that had little to do with his ability to coach WRs, such as for not liking people making fun of him for the whole shark humping thing.
If this is news to you that someone who writes about a topic may sometimes have a not-completely-objective take on said topic, you might be disappointed around here.
So because he didn't like the McElwain hire you think he's either incapable or unwilling to be objective about recruiting? UM did lose 5 games last year and signed a recruiting class outside the top 20, I'd say having a general distatse for the direction of the program is warranted at the moment. I think UM will have a good season this year because they recruited well in 2016 and 2017, but that has little to do with the 2018 and 2019 classes.
Their recruiting class was #21 in the country, I think #15 by average star/point ranking.
Michigan currently has the #6 recruiting class in the country, and I find little reason to believe it will crater considering who they are pursuing outside of the WR/RB positions, RB feauturing between 7 and 9 possible players for what, at best, is a 3-player rotation.
I think Brian has opinions about this team, like anyone else, and that can inform his particular tone he takes when discussing it. I've listened to the podcasts and read his posts about the football team recently, and he wasn't crazy about a lot of the coaching decisions beyond McElwain; that was just the most prominent one.
Again, if you want to agree with Brian's stance that's your choice, but me pointing out that he might be a bit reactionary isn't wrong either, no matter how much you want it to not be the case.
Is this your only access to recruiting information or will you pivot 180 degrees when he gets to the oline and dline recruiting?
Fack
I'm not sure there's any period in time during which top 100-ish backs outperform three starIs this a national trend or just a UM one? I was under the impression UM has kinda had bad luck with RBs the past 20 years or so with the likes of Green, Grady, Fargas, etc. But, I'd still assume a top 150 type back would be a nice thing. Should we expect the Chris Evans and Christian Turners of the world to continue to out produce their recruiting rankings? I was thinking this would be a position of need as Evans is the only proven quantity coming back.
I mean this is Mgoblog after all - so to Mathletes out there
Can't we get a PDF (Probability distribution function) of top RBs and their success in college and then see what the probability of having 3-4 back to back shitty RBs in M is ?
That'll make for a good analysis post.
Nice to see Brian’s negativity hasn’t subsided.
April 13th, 2018 at 12:23 AM ^
Apparently people look to you to be irrationaly optimistic rather than write honest opinion based on facts. Good to see you writing more football here again Brian.
Foooooootball?
Football.
FOOTBALL!
Are TE and Oline no longer part of the offense?
*points to "PART 1" in post title*
It's a looong way until either signing day for 2018. Once Shea is cleared and we start racking up the Ws this year. We will be alright.
GO BLUE!!
Woof. By the time the 2019 recruiting class is in the books, our 2018 season will have been completed as well. Win games and the class will start to look up. Higdon was a last second flyer and that worked out okay.
Can we all pitch in and get Brian on antidepressants?
Youre right, Higdon worked out OK. Something like 70% of his yards were against 4 of the worst teams imaginable. We all yell at the OL for their issues but lets not act like we've had a RB that can create his own yards/Tds in a while. The kind of RB Brian mentioned we're going to miss on
April 12th, 2018 at 10:12 PM ^
that "ain't so bad result" is only because we had a top 5 defense. If our offense had just a meager palse we would have won 2-3 more games. It all starts in the trenches and QB - we need to show top 150 RB / WR recruits they have a good chance for NFL-attracting production at U-M. 9 total passing TDs is just not going to cut it ... and you can't blame them, as there would be insufficient highlight film to support their professional goals. We need to produce some offense this year to get any traction with elite RB / WR recruits. To me that depends on two things happening: (1) Shea's status as the starter and (2) Warriner / Herbert combine to produce a solid B1G level OL with a bit of depth.
I feel like at Michigan you should be able to get at least a decent class even if we suck (See Brady Hoke) and we didn't really suck that badly at 8-5 compared to going 5-7. It also doesn't seem like we're trying particularly hard to recruit better after hiring guys like McElwain. You don't read about Harbaugh sleeping over at a kicker's house or climbing a tree anymore.
This is not the type of recruiting that was expected when Harbaugh was hired, so I don't see the need to try and rectfiy or justify it. Fortunately it is only April and there is still a lot of time between now and NSD in February, along with the entire season that needs to be played which will certainly affect things. Lots can and will change. That said last year's class was bad (by UM standards) and that makes this years all the more important. Hopefully the new staff hires will pay some dividends shortly. There's really no excuse not to sign top a 10 class every year given the amount of resources at Michigan.
So much for 2018 being just a blip on the recruiting front. Need elite level recruits at all levels consistently in order to consistently compete for championships. We are much more in tier 3 of schools that can compete when things together rather than reload every year. And for people who say there is still a long way to go, the problem isn't not having commits, its not even having people interested. Look more like Washington as a program than Clemson, Bama, OSU.
After watching how last season went, and then watching the Amazon series. I am starting to get the impression that Harbaugh is looking for specific types of players both physically and mentally with the emphasis on the latter. He is looking for players who "want" to become better athletes and people in general. A lot of times the highest rated players are used to be bing the best, and adversity doesn't bring the best out of them. Please take this next statement with a grain of salt as I understand this is painting with a broad brush. The younger generation is very different than that from a decade before, and the things that motivate them are different as well. I am not saying these kids are soft, but the way they percieve or deal with stressors in life is harder for an older person to anticipate. Michigan athletes are not going to be treated the same as athletes at other schools who are they to be an athlete only. Harbaugh knows this and wants that standard up held, and that makes it difficult to get the high ranking athletes who are looking to specifically have an easy path to the NFL.
I was just as frustrated as most last season, and it is understandable as a fan. With that said it doesn't mean you should trash everything all the time. As far as everyone on the board is aware no one is actually on the staff, and has 100% access to everything. Look at what WI, IA, NW, (MSU...), and some of the other schools who are not always top 20 in the recruiting world produce for teams and records the last decade. You can win with the right tram and player combinations. Does AL/GA/USC have a higher probability to win out each year? Yes, but they are beatable it just becomes harder. Beilen has taken all sorts of criticism from the "fan" base about his recruiting as well. He has his best class coming in after going to NC with a team people thought was NIT bound. He also spoke in a interview about studying all of the details of an athlete other than their athletic abilities when recruiting them.
There are so many people that need to learn how to be more objective on things instead of going into Chicken Little mode. Believe it or not better in depth conversation is able to be achieved amongnst the group on this blog if that were followed. Otherwise the only worthy text to read here is what is put together by the staff. So, how about we grow up and use our brains to produce more than a Twitter blerb...
Sorry for the rant!
Harbaugh wants highly rated players, he just wasn't able to land them last year. He did in 2016 and 2017. It's really that simple. No need to make it about anything more than that IMO.
Only WI and MSU can compete against OSU, Ala, and Georgia and Mark Dantonio and Paul Chryst both have losing records to Urban Meyer. Iowa and Northwestern aren't even worth talking about as relevant. PSU also had a much better recruiting class than Michigan last year and they're in our division.
Would you prefer to have Mike Diantonies record agaist OSU or our current record? Did you watch what IA did to OSU last year? That was more than Kinnick Stadium at work. Michigan has been in almost every game to the very end. The only blowout was against Pedd State last year. Better QB play may or may not have had led to a different outcome there as well. All coaches want he top recruits, but that is difficult to do if you have high expectations off the field. I don't even want to go down the bag man rabbit hole either. The point you just blew right over is those teams you marked as irrevelant, have had decent records the last decade. If there are a few years with lower recruiting rankings it is not the end of the world. If Michigan can go on a a good run, and win the BIG 10 next year or even just their division there could be good bump to the next class. We all want to win, but the ranking of recruits is not the only thing makes a team win games. Winning is a culture, and I feel Harbaugh is trying very hard to establish this.
Because a lot of those teams have been better than Michigan doesn't mean a damn thing. What's Iowa and Northwestern's record against OSU the past ten years? We hired Harbaugh to have a .500 or better record against OSU, win some big ten titles, and maybe a national title. We didn't hire him for moral victories and trying hard being good enough.
There is not a coach out there that can win championships given the circumstances Harbaugh has had... This is the insane attitude that can't be reasoned with. I guess we will just have to have a difference in opinions then. Good luck and Go Blue!
Harbaugh wants players who want to get better and that's why he can't recruit. Meyer goes after players who want to suck in college and maybe Harbaugh should go after those five starts who want to suck at the next level.
WR...yikes. Hopefully McElwain can turn things around.
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