Can we be better next season?

Submitted by TK on
The thing that excites me about next year is that we made our living on defense and the defense should only be better next season. Swapping Teske for Mo is a huge defensive upgrade and we return our best 2 elite defenders in Matthews and Z. Livers more minutes over Duncan also an upgrade. Obviously we need to find offense next year and hopefully Matthews and Poole can be our go to scorers with others stepping up as well. I think we will be very good. Probably take some time to gel like most Beilein teams. I’m not saying our result will be better, but I feel we have the ability to be at least as good as this year on paper.

stephenrjking

April 3rd, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^

Virginia never has offensive outbursts like Michigan. We were limited offensively this year, but still way more dangerous than Virginia on the right half of the court. Just ask Texas A&M and Michigan State.

And Virginia would kill to accomplish what we've accomplished in the last six years.

bacon1431

April 3rd, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^

Potentially. But it also doesn't mean we'll make it back to the Final Four. 

Class is the second best one he's brought in. If Poole makes the jump I think he will, along with Matthews, we could have a 2013-14 type season. 

Goldengate

April 3rd, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^

Can’t win with 3 out of 23 behind the arc. Great coaching and great defense is nice, but you still need to put the ball thru the hoop. X isn’t the answer.

corundum

April 3rd, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^

Zavier can improve his shooting. He surprisingly makes a lot of deep looks in warmups, but that doesn't translate to the games. Part of it is height, another aspect is his inability to shoot off the dribble. Eliminating the opposing team's PG offense is quite advantageous.

Bando Calrissian

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^

Warmups=/=Game. Most players look like world-beaters when they're just shooting around with no one in front of them.

He needs to work on form, and he needs to work on consistency. Spend the summer on the line, spend the summer with a camera on his shooting form, get some things worked out. Even a marginal improvement in his shooting makes him an infinitely more effective player.

uncle leo

April 3rd, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^

Before a pick up game, I don't miss a ton. 

When I get into the game, I generally suck ass.

Height has nothing to do with it. There are plenty of guys within his height range that don't struggle with the shot. His form is busted, he has to overhaul the whole thing.

RobSk

April 3rd, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^

discussion about shooting better from three, Simpson isn't the answer, but he's also not the question. This years Michigan had three shooters that were, to some degree, limited. Robinson probably the best of the group, but obviously couldn't get to the basket among good competition, so they could always close out at full speed.  Rakhman improved his shot, and that was huge for us, but was never going to be a Walton style consistent high percentage guy, and was surprisingly unhelped by being open sometimes.  Wagner was probably the most consistent, and the most able to get his own shot from deep. I'm hoping that between Poole and some of the incoming guys that Michigan can get a bit more reliable from deep.

It would also really help if Charles Matthews could be kidnapped by a gang of Larry Birds and forced to watch Reggie Miller tapes with his eyes taped open. Dude has got to dedicate himself to shooting the ball better. From the line, from three, from intermediate. He's got all the other skills to be an NBA player.

Can Simpson help by improving? Sure. But he's not the main problem in games when we shoot terribly.

         Rob

J.

April 3rd, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^

Because 3/23 was definitely a measure of their true talent level, and not a statistical outlier.

The 2013 team went 0/12 from 3 in the win vs. MSU.  Obviously Trey wasn't the answer either.

CLion

April 3rd, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^

Man I am legitimately baffled at how many people are shitting on Zavier. For one, I have no idea why he is getting picked on particularly. One player came to play last night and after he got us to a 21/14 start, no one else was able to step up to the plate.

But what Zavier did defensively since he claimed the starting spot had a huge role in our success this season and through the tournament. And to pretend like he has zero offense is also just false. He showed in conference play that he was pretty adept at finishing at the hoop despite his size.

We played a damn good team and lost. We are going to be much less of a misfit team next year with a variety of players who could make major leaps plus a solid incoming class. Zavier will be our starting point guard and I'm expecting us to be the regular season champs.

poppinfresh

April 3rd, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^

and still not get to the national championship.  if moe came back, we would have as much talent as we've ever had, but still MAAR and Duncan and that leadership is a huge loss.

to be better Z and matthews have to become better shooters and poole has to be better on defense.  

assuming mo leaves ill have my hopes/expectations hovering around sweet sixteen again, just like i did this year and with a little luck, who knows

Blue_42

April 3rd, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^

I'd like to see whoever is playing the 4 spot be more actively involved in the offense. Whether it was Duncan or Livers, it seemed to me that they spent most of the offensive possession standing in the corner waiting on someone to get them the ball.

harmon40

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^

Very solid defender who was basically not allowed to shoot. Of course, we also had Glen Rice, Terry Mills, Rumeal Robinson and Loy Vaught on that team, so not getting any offense out of that spot didn't really hurt us...

When Griffin shot the occasional free throw in a game at Crisler, the crowd would yell "SHOOOOOT! SHOOT IT!!!"

Go Blue in MN

April 3rd, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^

really showed some potential in January, at least hitting open 3s at a nice clip.  Then that skill seemed to disappear.  With another year of work, he should be a guy you can't leave open on the perimeter, helping our spacing and keeping the lane open for Mathews and Simpson.

maize-blue

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^

Possibly. Unlikely that things will fall into place like this season that will help them go on a big run in the tournament. They could end up being better but not have the same success.

ST3

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^

The Fab 5 lost their first Finals by ~20. They weren't ready yet. They were a better team throughout the next season and almost won it all. I can see next season's team being top 10 all year, winning the Big 10 regular season and taking the experience of this year and making another NCAA tournament run. Livers and Poole both need to make that patented Beilein sophomore leap. Z needs to make a Waltonesque improvement in his shooting. We need some contributions from the new freshmen. It's doable.

South Bend Wolverine

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^

If Mo comes back, I think we both can and will be better.  Whether that translates into better results, who knows?  That depends on a lot of variables that the team can't fully control.  I expect to at least be in the hunt for the Big Ten no matter what.  With Mo, I'm hoping for Big Ten crowns & Final 4, without him, in the Big Ten hunt & Sweet 16.

copacetic

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^

I think we can. But even if we are better, a lot would have to go right to have a better season than this incredible one. 

Either way the future is definitely bright

Mich fan in AZ

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^

We finally have a solid defensive identity that will give us a chance in almost every game, as evidenced by our tournament run when we shot so poorly most of the time. If we keep that up and just work on our shooting - even without Mo, MAAR, and Duncan - we'll be fine. Plus, our incoming class has to give us plenty of hope.

RobSk

April 3rd, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^

best FT shooters are gone (Robinson), gone (Rahkman), and probably gone (Wagner).

Let's hope that Simpson and Matthews are visited by THREE spirits this summer - Rick Barry, the ghost of FT shooters past, Steph Curry, the ghost of FT shooters present, and Isaiah Morgan (WV HS kid that shoots 94%), the ghost of FT shooters yet to come!

The spirits can do it all in 1 summer!

Boy! Boy! Are you Mark Price? Do you know the goose in the window of the shop down the street?

The one as big as me?

You're a fine boy! Yes! Now go to the shop, make 19 out of 20 FT, and you get it for nothing! Bring that goose to Charles Matthews, and tell him to stop banging his FT up there at 100 mph off the heel.

Yes sir!

 [Apologies to Charles Dickens]

    Rob

garde

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^

If Mo and Matthews both returned yes. If Mo leaves, no. He's just a matchup nightmare for teams against Beilein's offense. If we lose Mo and Matthews along with MAAR and Robinson, that is a lot of offense leaving AA as well as two guys (Matthews and MAAR) who can also get to the hole. Livers, Poole and the incomong freshmen will have to make BIG jumps if this team wants to be near the top of the BIg Ten.

HailHail47

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^

I think for next year’s team to be better without returning Moe (if we return Moe we are almost certainly better), it would need the following to happen: 1. Poole improves defense and decision making. 2. Matthews and Simpson improve free throw and three point shooting. 3. Livers needs to be an offensive threat 4. Teske refines his offensive skills and learns to shoot the three consistently. 5. Someone else has to step up. Whether that is Watson, Davis, Brooks, or one of the talented freshmen. We need some bench production. We really need another threat from three.

Ghost of Fritz…

April 3rd, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^

Which of the above 5 on the list is least likey to occur? 

My guess:  no. 4.  While Teske will generally improve as an offensive player, could he ever really become a three point threat (the way Wagner was)?

Whatever.  Beilein teams and players almost always are greater than the sum of their parts and almost always improve a lot as the season progresses. 

HailHail47

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^

I think Teske can take a step forward on his three point shooting. He took a few this year, similar to Moe his freshman year. Even if he shoots 30% and takes one or two a game it could extend the defense some. I am actually most skeptical that Matthews and Simpson improve their free throw shooting. They have shot tens of thousands of free throws during their playing careers from a young age- their struggles are mental.

Ghost of Fritz…

April 4th, 2018 at 12:56 AM ^

But if the problem is mostly mental then there is a way to overcome it. 

It the problem is just a lack fo the sort of motor skill plus spatial awareness brain capacity that makes one a really good 3 point shooter--well that is hard wired by 20.  Much harder to overcome. Only small improvements are possible.

If a guy has a mechanical flaw, or just sort of mental block, then those can be fixed and free throw shooting can improve substantially.

mgobrooklyn

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^

I think we can. If Simpson spends the summer in the gym shooting jump shots and free throws,  he could take his game to the next level. Similarly, I'm expecting a jump in Poole's game going into year two. Add to that the best recruiting class we've had in a while, and I think we can more than offset the losses of Mo and MAAR. The key player will be Matthews. Does he come back and can he continue the trend from the tournament where he really turned the corner as a player? I would bet that next year's team may start out somewhat slowly and hit its stride later in the season given the number of talented freshman we'll be relying on. In any event, the future looks bright over the next 2 years at least. 

stephenrjking

April 3rd, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^

The change in the shot doesn't have to be dramatic. Just some modification. Steph Curry doesn't have the highest release, but the rest of his technique is solid and he's obviously an all-time shooter. 

But he does need to change. That's part of the key; just time in the gym shooting isn't enough. Guys who play basketball at this level all spend time shooting. It's making those reps productive that's the question.

gobluem

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^

If Wagner and Matthews come back, then yes. Sophomore Poole will have to improve defense markedly to match MAAR, and be consistent in his offense as well. Livers and Brooks have to make a sophomore jump, and the incoming freshmen will have to be as advertised.

I will be curious to see how Johns and Iggy work into the 3/4 spots, because they both look like they could play at either position.

I think to be considered better, the following would have to be true

Jr Simpson > Soph Simpson

Soph Poole = Sr MAAR

Junior Matthews + Johns/Iggy > Soph Matthews

Soph Livers + Johns/Iggy > Robinson/Fr Livers

Senior Mo > Jr Mo

If/when Wagner goes, we lose the stretch 5 component that makes our offense go. That will be a tough pill to swallow, unless Castleton can step in and fill that role immediately. Castleton is pretty skinny and needs to add some weight and develop his 3 point shot a bit more though, so I think him being a high impact player is a year or more likely 2 away.

 

I have high hopes for our incoming freshman class, but it's always a wildcard to see how those guys will perform their first year, especially in a complex system like Beilein runs

gobluem

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^

True, but Mo wasn't the problem with the offense not going... it was more of that Simpson and Matthews aren't good enough outside shooters to strike fear in people's hearts when left open

 

I think we're in a rough offensive spot with Simpson/Poole/Matthews/Livers/Teske lineup. Barring multiple freshmen coming in and playing like Poole but for even more minutes/game

 

That said, I have confidence that by the end of the season, Beilein will have things going pretty good.

ppudge

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^

In a single game elimination tournament, it takes a lot of luck. So we could have a better team next year and still not make the Final Four. Heck, we were a Poole last second shot away from not being in the Sweet 16 this year. Losing MAAR and Robinson will hurt, as will losing Moe if he leaves. But the cupboard is not bare. We bring in three excellent recruits (DeJulius, Johns and Brazdekis) plus a gunner in Nunez and a big who can shoot in Castleton (not sure if he’ll be Donnal or Moe or something in between). Z and Matthews are our two best defenders and they both return (at least I assume Matthews comes back) plus Teske is a very good defensive player. Just need some shooters and I think the freshman class plus Poole will give us that. I’ll be interested in how Livers progresses. He’s a plus defender but seemed to defer on offense as the season went on. Be interested to see improvement there because Johns and Brazdekis are both very good players who will be fighting for playing time.

robpollard

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^

The team will definitely be more athletic next year -- we'll have multiple shot blockers (from the traditional, Teske, to the new wave athletic in Castleton); multiple "take it to the rack and dunk" guys (not just Matthews, but Iggy and perhaps Johns).

Simpson should be better -- his game obviously grew from January on, but it hit a definite plateau offensively by the end of the year. Since PG is the most important position in Beilein's offense, that should help tremendously.

I expect big improvement from Poole and/or Livers, on both ends of the floor.

However...we had a great season this year.
- 13-5 in the regular season B1G; won the B1G Tourney; finished regular season #7 in the country; went to the national championship game.

That's not perfect, but it is very, very good.

So I can easily see the team next year being better -- for example, next year's team would (if the players develop as reasonably expected) match up better with Villanova. But to have better results? Not likely unless someone (e.g., Poole or Livers) turns into a Trey or Nik level All-American *and* we have the necessary amount of luck.

Fletcher Hall

April 3rd, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^

We all know it takes a while for freshmen to learn how Coach runs his offense. It took nearly a whole season for this team to become a highly proficient defensive unit.

That said, I think we will have more dispersed scoring with a more diverse cast of shooters. The four spot should become a strength. Hopefully, a platoon of Brooks, DDJ and Poole can replace MAAR’s output. Not so sure about Teske-he will never be the dynamic perimeter threat that Moe is/was (!), but adding a 10-15 jumper will make him much more dangerous.

Our improved overall length on defense is promising. Teske is no doubt a better defender and rim protector than Moe, but his rebounding needs a lot of work (getting boxed out by Brunson last night was infuriating). I’m not so sure about Iggy on d-maybe his development path mirrors that of Duncan. Excited to see what Johns can add. Again, we will miss MAAR’s contributions-his on ball defense was pretty good.