Tim Miles trolls KenPom
Beneath the wholesome South Dakota boy exterior, he's a low-key loose cannon.
https://twitter.com/CoachMiles/status/968234209717387271
https://twitter.com/CoachMiles/status/968233938249486336
https://twitter.com/CoachMiles/status/968233395108147202
He's got to be careful with this one, though....
February 28th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^
Evidently none of them have looked at their RPI metrics. Even ignoring the current quadrant system, Nebraska is only 3-8 against the RPI top-100 which is why their own RPI figure is 59th. Despite having a much better conference record, the Huskers kind of remind me of Michigan's 2016 team that also only had three top-100 RPI victories and had to beat IU just to get into the First Four.
February 28th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^
Somebody needs to explain the concept of an outlier to him. Miles. Not Kenpom.
February 28th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
I dont think Tim understands statistics very well. He may need to enroll in a basic statistics course on campus to fully comprehend it.
February 28th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
Based on the gif below, it's uncertain if he fully understands how a flush toilet works...
February 28th, 2018 at 3:55 PM ^
I think Miles is just having some fun here at Kenpoms expense. This doesn't seem as much mean spirited as just a little fun with the model that was cleary a ways off.
February 28th, 2018 at 4:00 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
Hey Tim, what do you think of KenPom?
February 28th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
They have a lousy KenPom ranking and a lousy RPI ranking. It is the direct effect of feeding off the bottom teams in the conference all season and inflating their win total.
February 28th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
Miles also seems to be a Dumb & Dumber fan. He retweeted this:
SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE pic.twitter.com/K910OscqFU
— Big Ten Geek (@bigtengeek) February 16, 2018
February 28th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^
If the first 3 (MSU, OSU and Purdue) each had, as of the taking of this snapshot, 100% chance of finishing in the Top 4, and Nebraska had a 93.3% chance of finishing in the Top 4, how in the hell did Michigan have a 23.0% chance of finishing there? The first 3 take 3/4 of the Top 4 away, meaning the remaining teams are playing for only 1 remaining Top 4 position. Undere thos circumstances, shouldn't remaining possibilities add up to 100% (multiple teams fighting for 1 remaining spot, rather that multiple teams fighting for multiple remaining spots)? Statistics am hard.
February 28th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
They must have been factoring in tie scenarios.
February 28th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
by kicking their asses.
February 28th, 2018 at 4:18 PM ^
You can't fool me with that hat, Billy Bob Thornton
February 28th, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
I have a wholesome South Dakota boy exterior, I had no idea he was from my home state. I.....I don't know how to feel about this right now.
Edit: Nm he's from east river, I get it now.
February 28th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^
Wrong side of the tracks?
February 28th, 2018 at 6:31 PM ^
The Missouri River splits the state roughly in half, east river is a lot like Iowa/southern Minnesota/Illinois: corn, soy beans, hogs, it's flat, lot more water.
West river is entirely rolling hills and plains, can't grow much, not a lot of water, lot of cattle ranches, but dammit we have the Black Hills and I'll take that over a 2018 NCAA hockey regional site any day.
Coming from a Rapid City native, don't you expect someone to be from east river when you hear they're from SD? I mean east river contains about 85% of the state's population . . .
Also, the Black Hills are awesome.
February 28th, 2018 at 5:06 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 6:20 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 5:42 PM ^
...and NU gets left out of the NCAAT.
But first we need to take care of business tomorrow.
February 28th, 2018 at 6:42 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 6:47 PM ^
Just going off Kenpom, Nebraska is indeed better than the SECs #8 team. But not better than the SEC #7
February 28th, 2018 at 7:45 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^
1 - Yes. Fewer possessions absolutely increases the luck factor; all other things being equal, a team with a faster tempo will win more frequently than a team with slower tempo. (All other things are rarely equal, of course. :)
2 - Not really. I see what you're saying, but each game only has one tempo, so the more efficient team has an advantage in any given game. Now, the higher-tempo, less-efficient team could win more games due to luck, but KenPom is a predictive system -- when you're trying to predict the winner, you want the more efficeint team.
3 - That game was an outlier by any margin, though. I get about 108 possessions, meaning Loyola-Marymount scored close to 1.4 points per possession. Loyola also made 21/40 threes and turned the ball over half as often as Michigan. If anything, that game probably exemplifies the advantage that a highly-efficient offensive team can have. You can be slow & efficient or fast & efficient; Loyola was the latter.
4 - That's a good question. KenPom projects a pace number for each game; it doesn't seem to be exactly equal to the average of the two, so maybe he is taking some kind of measurement to determine whose pace is more likely to prevail.
February 28th, 2018 at 8:05 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 8:27 PM ^
To be fair, KenPom got that one wrong too... ;)
February 28th, 2018 at 8:47 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 9:04 PM ^
While there may literally be more pitchfork-wielding Nebraska fans than Michigan fans, I don't think they take basketball all that seriously. Most of them can probably take a joke. :)
February 28th, 2018 at 9:27 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 10:02 PM ^
Alternative headline: Tim miles doesn't understand what probability is
Alternative headline: Tim Miles doesn't understand what probability is