Breslin Vs. Crisler - Personal Foul Stats
Between the round table yesterday, the podcast, and the game recaps from this past weekend's MSU game, Brian has mentioned that Michigan always seems to get screwed by the refs at Breslin. I think many people belive this to be the case (mostly because of a game or two over the years). But, seeing how this is MGoBlog and we don't play "feelings stats" around here, I did a mini-dive into the boxscores from 2001-present. This is simply foul totals. I don't have the time to look into when fouls were called (e.g. end of game situations, etc.) so take it for what it's worth. Caveats apply obviously for Beilein's foul adversity, etc. Scroll down to see the results...
DNP - We did not play there that year.
PFs - Personal Fouls
YEAR | UM - PFs | MSU - PFs |
2001 | 19 | 15 |
2002 | 17 | 19 |
2003 | DNP | DNP |
2004 | 27 | 19 |
2005 | 21 | 19 |
2006 | 19 | 22 |
2007 | 14 | 9 |
2008 | 16 | 15 |
2009 | DNP | DNP |
2010 | 13 | 18 |
2011 | 14 | 16 |
2012 | 17 | 15 |
2013 | 16 | 14 |
2014 | 16 | 22 |
2015 | 19 | 13 |
2016 | DNP | DNP |
2017 | 21 | 19 |
2018 | 25 | 26 |
TOTALs | 274 | 261 |
Average | 18.3/Game | 17.4/Game |
YEAR | UM - PFs | MSU - PFs |
2001 | 15 | 20 |
2002 | DNP | DNP |
2003 | 14 | 20 |
2004 | 17 | 17 |
2005 | 14 | 17 |
2006 | 13 | 26 |
2007 | 15 | 21 |
2008 | DNP | DNP |
2009 | 18 | 16 |
2010 | 10 | 14 |
2011 | 18 | 22 |
2012 | 8 | 12 |
2013 | 17 | 15 |
2014 | 18 | 23 |
2015 | 18 | 18 |
2016 | 18 | 20 |
2017 | 11 | 19 |
2018 | DNP | DNP |
TOTALs | 224 | 280 |
Averages | 14.9/Game | 18.7/Game |
We have played 15 games at Breslin and 15 games at Crisler since the 2000-2001 season. There is one game (BTT) from 2014-2015 played at a neutral site. UM had 15 PFs to MSU's 19 PFs. I have excluded that game.
We do tend to get called more at Breslin than MSU. Out of the 15 games, UM was called for more fouls 9 times (no ties). At Crisler, UM was called for more fouls only 2 times (2 ties as well).
The bottom line that the data shows is that it is MSU who really should be more angry at playing at Crisler. We get called for ~ 1 more foul/game at Breslin while they get called for ~4 more fouls/game at Crisler!
How do Michigan's Fouls at home and at Breslin relate to their season averages? How do MSU's relate? Well, here are 2 tables:
Season | Total PFs | Games Played | Average PFs/Game | Breslin | Crisler |
'00-01 | 607 | 28 | 21.7 | 19 | 15 |
'01-02 | 520 | 29 | 17.9 | 17 | DNP |
'02-03 | 552 | 30 | 18.4 | DNP | 14 |
'03-04 | 586 | 34 | 17.2 | 27 | 17 |
'04-05 | 501 | 31 | 16.2 | 21 | 14 |
'05-06 | 544 | 33 | 16.5 | 19 | 13 |
'06-07 | 587 | 35 | 16.8 | 14 | 15 |
'07-08 | 483 | 32 | 15.1 | 16 | DNP |
'08-09 | 535 | 35 | 15.3 | DNP | 18 |
'09-10 | 468 | 32 | 14.6 | 13 | 10 |
'10-11 | 587 | 35 | 16.8 | 14 | 18 |
'11-12 | 530 | 34 | 15.6 | 17 | 8 |
'12-13 | 496 | 39 | 12.7 | 16 | 17 |
'13-14 | 527 | 37 | 14.2 | 16 | 18 |
'14-15 | 455 | 32 | 14.2 | 19 | 18 |
'15-16 | 558 | 36 | 15.5 | DNP | 18 |
'16-17 | 571 | 38 | 15 | 21 | 11 |
'17-18 | 313 | 21 | 14.9 | 25 | DNP |
Season | Total PFs | Games Played | Average PFs/Game | Breslin | Crisler |
'00-01 | 611 | 33 | 18.5 | 15 | 20 |
'01-02 | 581 | 31 | 18.7 | 19 | DNP |
'02-03 | 707 | 35 | 20.2 | DNP | 20 |
'03-04 | 630 | 30 | 21 | 19 | 17 |
'04-05 | 640 | 33 | 19.4 | 19 | 17 |
'05-06 | 478 | 34 | 14 | 22 | 26 |
'06-07 | 652 | 35 | 18.6 | 9 | 21 |
'07-08 | 665 | 36 | 18.5 | 15 | DNP |
'08-09 | 734 | 38 | 19.3 | DNP | 16 |
'09-10 | 666 | 37 | 18 | 18 | 14 |
'10-11 | 648 | 34 | 19 | 16 | 22 |
'11-12 | 650 | 37 | 17.6 | 15 | 12 |
'12-13 | 579 | 36 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
'13-14 | 721 | 38 | 19 | 22 | 23 |
'14-15 | 738 | 39 | 19 | 13 | 18 |
'15-16 | 671 | 35 | 19 | DNP | 20 |
'16-17 | 699 | 35 | 20 | 19 | 19 |
'17-18 | 350 | 19 | 16.9 | 26 | DNP |
For Michigan -
At Breslin, the team was called for more PFs than their season average 10 out of 15 games (67%). For those 15 seasons where Michigan played at Breslin - they averaged 15.96 PFs/game for the season but 18.3 PFs/game at Breslin. So, essentially, playing Breslin costs Michigan an additional 2.5 fouls per game.
At Crisler, the team was called for more PFs than their season average 6 out of 15 games (40%). In the 15 seasons when they played at home against MSU, Michigan averaged 16.04 PFs/game and only 14.9 PFs/game when playing MSU. Playing at home seems save Michigan 1 PF for the game.
For MSU -
At Breslin, the team was called for more PFs than their season average 4 out of 15 games (27%). For those 15 seasons where MSU played Michigan at Breslin - they averaged 18.28 PFs/game but only 17.4 PFs/game when playing at Breslin. In other words, MSU is similar to Michigan - playing at home saves them an average of 1 PF compared with their season average.
At Crisler, the team was called for more PFs than their season average 6 out of 15 games (40%). In the 15 seasons when MSU plays us at home, MSU averaged 18.6 PFs/game and only 18.7 PFs/game for the game at Crisler. In other words, MSU meets their season average when playing at Crisler.
BOTTOM LINE:
The bottom line is that there is a difference between playing at Breslin for Michigan in regards to their season average. It's around 2.5 personal fouls. I would chalk this up to the rivarly and hostility of that building. Even though MSU doesn't go over their season average when playing at Crisler, they will usually get called for 4 more fouls a game. I'll take that home court advantage any day!
So while the Breslin Center may increase our season average for personal fouls, it does not appear that we get called much more than MSU. The flip side for MSU is that they certainly lose out by playing at Crisler. Now THAT's the MICHIGAN difference.
* apologies to statisticians for my lack of appropriate terminology, etc.
January 19th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^
tl;dr;dc
January 19th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^
You clearly have plenty of time to be able to read this analysis.
January 19th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
hahahahahaha, touche...
January 19th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
January 19th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
Lots of good stats, might have been able to shorten this a bit though.
I disagree with your conclusion though. If MSU's PF/game stat is unchanged when they play at Crisler, and that results in a difference of MSU getting 4 more fouls called on them on average, that is not the refs helping Michigan out. That's MSU playing a more foul-prone version of basketball.
January 19th, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^
Yep, agreed. The conclusion isn't that we have a better home-court advantage, it actually means ours is worse because we're called for more than average at Breslin while MSU is called for the average at Crisler. So we have 0 home-court advantage when they visit, which seems about right to my biased memory.
January 19th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
Originally I was going to leave the data out, but it's actually quite interesting. Not to mention, it's a pain in the ass to accumulate it, so I thought perhaps if this gets bumped to a diary that someone wouldn't have to reaccumulate any data.
It is interesting to note that the "Beilein no foul" regime is not as impressive as I thought.
January 19th, 2018 at 2:44 PM ^
I don't understand your point about the "Beilein no foul" regime. Why aren't you impressed?
Only look at the years for which Beilein has coached. He is averaging 14.9 fouls per game at UM. In the same time period, Izzo is averaging 18.4. That's a huge difference.
Caveat: These numbers are based on averaging yearly PF/game numbers, so not exactly correct on a per game basis, but should be very close.
January 19th, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
One thing you also have to take into account is when the fouls are given.
For example, this year MSU fouled at Breslin more than Michigan. However, if you watched that game, they fouled how many times in the last 2 minutes while Izzo was eating his own liver.
Also, you have to take into account that at Breslin, Michigan except for 2011 and 2014 has most likely had to foul to get back into the game via FTs.
That is a significant skew in some of your data that has to be taken into account. If you didn't notice how bad TV Teddy and his bunch of striped goons called that game Saturday, then you didn't watch.
January 19th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
I agree, which is why I mentioned that in the beginning. However, going through game flow data is a bit more cumbersome. It would be great if the last 2 minutes of the game could be parsed out.
January 19th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
NOOOOOOOO I dp'd :(
January 19th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
January 19th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
January 19th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
So you're telling me the refs aren't always out to get Michigan like 90% of people on this board think?! Inconceivable!
January 19th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Wouldn't W/L record affect this too? I think MSU was called for 1 more foul in this last game, but MSU always was intentionally fouling the last minute, so it was really like 24 M fouls to 19 MSU or so until that point.
Not that you'd do this research, but fouls in non-intentional fouling time is probably more indicative right?
January 19th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
Would it be possible to filter your data to remove fouls in the last two minutes of gametime? I know you used box scores, not raw data, but another intrepid MGoBlogger might have that ability. Since your objective is to analyze home court effect on referees, filtering should focus the analysis on referees' chosen calls to the exclusion of end-of-game intentional fouls.
January 19th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
January 19th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
Enough with this crap. Please enlighten us when Michigan was screwed at home in football?
January 19th, 2018 at 5:32 PM ^
I don't think it happens often, but the MSU 2015 game was pretty egregiously pro-MSU refereeing. As one example, that targeting call against Bolden that kicked him out in the first half and kept MSU's TD drive alive was a very bad call that even most MSU folks agreed was wrong.
January 19th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
January 19th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
With all of the data presented (not factoring in other important data not presented) this is basically the only conclusion.
January 19th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
It depends on what your frame of reference is. Do you care about foul parity or ref tendencies per arena? We tend to get called for more fouls at Breslin than our season average by ~2.5 fouls per game. However, the foul differential between Michigan and MSU at Breslin is small (~1 more foul against Michigan).
At Crisler, we are called for less fouls than our season average, but more significantly MSU usually is called for 4 more fouls than we are.
As multiple posters have mentioned, the late game hack-a-Simpson is the great unknown. It would require game flow data which I don't know where to get. That would provide a more accurate measure of bias.
January 19th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
Based on the season averages you've presented, MSU normally commits more fouls than we do, so I'm not sure why we should expect an equal number of fouls to be called.
When I watch a game, I don't necessarily expect the number of foul calls to be equal. Some teams play more physically than others, so they'll logically commit more. I just expect referees to be consistent about how they make their calls - if a hand check is a foul at one end, it should be at the other, too. But one team might hand check more than the other.
January 19th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
January 19th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
It may not be especially accurate, but for the sake of brevity...
Maybe you could remove 2-3 PFs from the losing team's total, to try to account for end-of-game fouling. I would not do this on blow-outs (>15 pts?) or tight games (< 3 pts?), as late-game fouling may not occur in those instances.
January 19th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
I'd be curious how it relates to each referee crew. Additionally, its not just number of fouls at Breslin, but more of the inconsistency in calls. MSU clearly plays more physically at Breslin and still gets a similar number of fouls. The severity of what is called is the huge difference the way I see it
January 19th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
January 19th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
I would like to see this done vs Wisconsin and the Kohl Center. Those would be some very interesting numbers.
January 19th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^
Someone suggested in a thread last week that this meme should exist, so here it is. Go Blue!!!
January 19th, 2018 at 8:06 PM ^
we have the fewest free throw attempts in BIg play and the second lowest % made.
Under Beilein, we do not play well when the refs let people hack, grab and play D with hands on. We do not seem to guage the permissiveness of the refs very well or adjust to what they are allowing very well in these kinds of games.
January 19th, 2018 at 8:20 PM ^