Hoops Preview: North Carolina
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#41 Michigan (6-1) at #13 North Carolina (5-1) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Dean Smith Center Chapel Hill, North Carolina |
WHEN | 7:30 pm ET, Wednesday |
LINE |
UNC -8 (KenPom) UNC -9.5 (Bovada) |
TV |
ESPN PBP: Bob Wischusen Analyst: Dick Vitale |
THE STAKES
If you were hoping for a Big Ten triumph in the ACC Challenge, it was over almost before it began. Purdue beat Louisville last night; the other six games, including a buzzer-beating finish between Georgia Tech and Northwestern, have gone the ACC's way.
The Big Ten needs a clean sweep for a win. I don't need to run any numbers to tell you that's unlikely.
THE THEM
While the defending national champions have had plenty of turnover, they're still projected to be Michigan's toughest test until January.
UNC took a markedly different approach to early-season scheduling than Michigan; they've already faced five top-100 teams, dispatching four with relative ease, including #29 Arkansas. That got them inside the KenPom top ten for all of one game before Michigan State blew them out 63-45 in the PK80 title game on Sunday. UNC had its worst shooting performance in the history of the program. A dollar says they'll be better tonight.
The Tar Heels are led by 6'8", 240-pound junior big Luke Maye, a hero off the bench in last year's NCAA tournament who's taken well to a much-increased role this year. Capable of scoring in the post or knocking down threes at a 40% clip, he'd fit in really well in Beilein's offense, and he's also an excellent rebounder. His main weakness is at the line, where he's a career 52% shooter.
Point guard Joel Berry is the player you probably best remember from last year's title run. He's struggled to find his shot after missing the early portion of the season with a hand injury; at his best, he's a high-volume three-point gunner and effective pick-and-roll ballhandler. He's joined in the backcourt by sharpshooter Kenny Williams, who's 14-for-25 on threes so far this season.
6'6" wing Theo Pinson is a strong defender who's likely to match up against Charles Matthews. He's a limited offensive player, but his poor outside shot is offset by his ability to finish around the basket. Freshmen Garrison Brooks (6'9" starting four) and Sterling Manley (6'11" backup five) round out the frontcourt. Neither is a huge offensive threat and have some turnover issues; both can make an impact on the boards, especially Manley.
A few young guards—sophomore Seventh Woods and freshmen Andrew Platek and Jarek Felton—should rotate into the game. They're all talented players, as you'd expect at UNC, but only Platek has found much success this year and most of it came against 303rd-ranked Portland.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE TEMPO-FREE
Small sample size caveats apply.
North Carolina is going to look to run; they're seventh in average offensive possession length. Their halfcourt offense has bogged down against man-to-man defenses, especially MSU's, because they don't shoot the ball particularly well. Their best approach against Michigan is attacking the offensive glass, which they do quite well.
UNC's defense, as usual, is a strength. Their length and athleticism make it tough to score inside the arc. They're 25th in two-point percentage allowed and 66th in block rate despite lacking a true rim protecting center in the starting lineup. They sacrifice their perimeter defense with this approach, however; they're 281st in three-point rate allowed and opponents are sinking 40.4% of them.
THE KEYS
Drive, kick, profit. There'll be more on this in a Basketbullets later this afternoon, but Michigan's most reliable halfcourt offense has come when their wings, especially Charles Matthews, attack the paint off the screen. If Matthews can manipulate screens and use his quick first step to get into the paint and force UNC's defense to collapse, there are going to be open threes available. Then it's just a matter of...
Make some dang threes. Michigan has the 58th-highest rate of three-point attempts but is mired in a season-long funk, hitting only a third of their triples. For the above approach to work, that obviously has to change. While Michigan has downgraded their outside shooting considerably at point guard, I believe their poor shooting is mostly a fluke at this point—they're generating good shots and have one starter (MAAR) shooting well below his career mark.
Rebound. Simple but mandatory when facing a team with the size and athleticism of UNC, especially when that team isn't great at shooting. Moe Wagner, Jon Teske, and Matthews have been very good on the defensive boards, but the Wolverines will also need Duncan Robinson and MAAR to be on high alert—both have a tendency to space out on their assignements and UNC will ruthlessly take advantage if they fail to block out.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
UNC by 8.
Maye is going to test Wagner's defense more than anyone he's faced this year, and Pinson is going to make Matthews work hard for his points. Unless Michigan lights it up from the outside, UNC's rebounding ends up being the deciding factor here. If it isn't, we can start feeling pretty good about Michigan's ability on the boards.
November 29th, 2017 at 2:07 PM ^
Sterling Manley is obviously just Archer's alter ego Chet Manley except he forgot to change the first name.
November 29th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^
I think it's time to retire the shtick.
November 29th, 2017 at 5:08 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^
Teske and Matthews official coming out party.
November 29th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^
I'd LOVE to see some time with Teske and Wagner out there at the same time after MSU showed that length makes UNC forget how to basketball.
November 29th, 2017 at 2:37 PM ^
... I mean middle aged.
November 29th, 2017 at 5:12 PM ^
It's been a long-ass week out here man. And I live in DC too.
November 29th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 4:42 PM ^
we have played against almost nothing but teams that would struggle with top ranked HS teams. UNC's shooting percentage is only slightly below ours and they have played much tougher competition. It'll be interesting to see how the boys do against their first real test.
November 29th, 2017 at 2:24 PM ^
This was left over from the earlier Meijer discussion
November 29th, 2017 at 2:25 PM ^
I actually think Michigan's fate rests in its 3 pt shooting. Wagner will probably end up in foul trouble and there will be some homer ref moments, but I can see Michigan keeping it close.
November 29th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 5:34 PM ^
That's a mind-blowing stat, but I don't like to break it up. It sounds better as: prior to last weeks game against UNC, Izzo was 1-18 against Roy Williams and Coach K. 1-18!
November 29th, 2017 at 2:27 PM ^
Interesting that they aren't a very good DREB team. Maybe they try to block a lot of shots? Might be a good game to try to generate a lot of Kobe assists from Matthews and Rahk driving and let Wagner/Teske clean up.
Statistically speaking, they really aren't that scary. Beilein has always done well vs. teams that rely on athleticism and pace above all else. I wouldn't be shocked to see Mich steal one here if Brooks can handle the environment.
November 29th, 2017 at 3:23 PM ^
They want to get out on the wings and open court ASAP. Their bigs, too. That's why I think Dook's size will give UNC some difficulty this season.
November 29th, 2017 at 2:31 PM ^
in football
November 29th, 2017 at 3:21 PM ^
Who are we playing at QB?
November 29th, 2017 at 3:24 PM ^
UNC was made to be crushed by Harbaugh teams. Even in their good years.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:39 PM ^
could do it
November 29th, 2017 at 2:41 PM ^
What is the origin of the ram mascot for UNC, anyway? How is that connected to "Tar Heels"?
November 29th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^
Not connected to Tar Heels really. Back in the 20's they decided they needed a school mascot to up spirit so they chose a ram after star football player Jack Merritt who was known as the "battering ram".
November 29th, 2017 at 2:57 PM ^
Not sure if this helps but if you rearrange the letters of UNC Tar Heels you get Steel Ranch U
November 29th, 2017 at 3:17 PM ^
I'll be in 222 with my wife, sister in law, brother in law (all UNC alums). I'll hear about Webber 10 times before the night is over.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:40 PM ^
Who is Webber?
November 29th, 2017 at 5:22 PM ^
on the westside of A2 with overrated prime rib.
November 29th, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^
The good news about a game like this is that it is kind of like a free roll. A loss doesn't hurt the resume too bad, but a win would be a huge boost.
All in all, would just like to continue seeing improvement in the ballclub, particularly at the pg position.
November 29th, 2017 at 4:35 PM ^
Anybody know our record on the road? I can't remember us having much success at all.
November 29th, 2017 at 5:34 PM ^
on the road, all-time, in this event. So that's right about how you'd expect to do as a road team in otherwise relatively even matchups. This is not quite an even matchup though...
Our two wins: 2015 at NC St and 2010 at Clemson
November 29th, 2017 at 6:05 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^
I liked Brooks at the point last game. Seemed to get rid of the ball fairly quickly. Decent, not great, stat line.
I'd like to see how he develops.
November 29th, 2017 at 7:34 PM ^
November 29th, 2017 at 9:05 PM ^
Win The Game !!
November 29th, 2017 at 9:45 PM ^
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