Pick 'Em: Penn State has 51.2% chance of making playoffs; Ohio State 42.5%; Wisconsin 14.0%

Submitted by LLG on

Put your picks here and claim glory on December 3, 2017, when your picks are correct.

"These probabilities are not about the best team. These numbers reflect which teams end the season in the committee’s top 4, and this depends on schedule."

More here on the odds in the subject heading:  https://thepowerrank.com/2017/10/31/college-football-playoff-probabilit…

 

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2017 CFP

swdodgimus

October 31st, 2017 at 9:56 PM ^

Solely BIG Championship.

Michigan wins out, obviously.

OSU loses to Iowa, as well. Penn St loses to MSU.

MSU loses a third conference game to Maryland.

Michigan, PSU, OSU all tied at 7-2 in BIG, with Michigan wins over Wisconsin and OSU driving up ranking.

PSU's later losses drop them enough, and OSU three losses lets us past them. We get in based on highest CFP ranking.

 

None of this will happen. Cue "saying there's a chance" meme. 

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TrueBlue2003

November 1st, 2017 at 1:54 AM ^

that's not how the tiebreaker goes.

First tiebreaker is record against the other tied teams.  All three would be 1-1 there.

Second tiebreaker is record against the division.  OSU would win that if one of their losses is to Iowa (which is the most likely loss for them).  There's no one else in the division that plays OSU other than MSU, but if MSU beats them, MSU would still need to lose two other games which would have to be Maryland and...Rutgers.

So the most plausible path would be for MSU to beat PSU, MSU to lose to OSU and then both of them lose another game. With OSU losing to Iowa.  That's a lot to ask for but if MSU and Iowa can win at home this weekend, things get quite a bit more straightforward.

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allintime23

October 31st, 2017 at 10:41 PM ^

Don’t see the big ten getting a team in. If notre Dame wins out they’re in. Bama is in along with most likely Clemson and the Sooners. I know people disagree with me but the big ten is the fourth best conference this year, sorry. Michigan will beat Wisconsin and take OSU to the brink. OSU will win the big ten but Oklahoma will win the big 12 and have a dominate win over OSU.

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SeattleWolverine

October 31st, 2017 at 11:20 PM ^

But does Notre Dame get in with 1 loss over a 1 loss Georgia? Notre Dame probably has the best collection of wins, but Georgia has the head to head and with @ND and @Auburn plus crushing the (admittedly weak) SEC East in blowouts they probably have enough for the head to head over ND. Especially if they keep it close against Alabama.

 

Of course, that's a ND/GA discussion and I agree with your overall point about the B1G. OSU is best positioned and their home loss to OK is a big problem. 

 

 

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Perkis-Size Me

November 1st, 2017 at 12:01 PM ^

I don't understand ND being ranked as high as they are. Or I really wouldn't understand them making it in this year barring chaos around them. They have no conference championship game, so the only way they should really be safe for getting in is if they go undefeated, or have a slew of quality wins. 

Their best wins are a clubbing of a vastly overrated USC team, and a multiple score win over a good but not great NC State team. 1 point loss to the #1 team in the country, fine. But this is just another situation of Notre Dame getting the benefit of the doubt because its Notre Dame. I'd put OSU, Oklahoma, and possibly Clemson ahead of them right now. 

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TrueBlue2003

November 1st, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^

on the road over 24th ranked MSU.  And while MSU is probably highly overrated, they're ranked there because they beat us in Ann Arbor.  FML.

That gives ND three wins over currently ranked teams.  That and the fact that they have arguably the best loss (1 pt to the #1 team, it's arguable because it was at home and PSU lost by 1 to the #6 team on the road) makes it's very hard to argue with their current ranking.

They'll have played a very tough schedule this year (at least it looks that was so far) but it'll be interesting to see what happens if/when MSU, USC, NC State and UGA lose more games.

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Perkis-Size Me

November 1st, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^

If OSU wins out I think they're in. They'd have a win over a top-10 PSU team (assuming PSU doesn't drop another game, which I don't think they do), a top-10 Wisconsin team to earn a conference title, and a likely ranked Michigan team. Not to mention a lot of seal clubbings to pad the resume. 

Even if Notre Dame wins out, they're going to have to sweat out the conference championship week. They're really only ever going to be safe if they go undefeated. As we saw a few years ago, there's always the possibility that OSU wills its way into the playoff by curbstomping Wisconsin again. Aside from Miami, Notre Dame really doesn't have any good games left to prove itself. There ain't shit they can do to help themselves during conference championship week. 

The Clemson-Oklahoma-OSU argument gets interesting though. Clemson has the best group of wins so far (quantity wise) but lost to a mediocre team. OSU has arguably the best win of the season thus far, but Oklahoma owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over OSU, and Oklahoma's loss to Iowa State doesn't look that bad anymore. Still, I think the committee will go with who they think the best team is at the end of the season, and if you ask me, you play the OU-OSU game again, OSU wins. 

The committee is dying for a Saban-Meyer rematch, so unless Michigan or Wisconsin upsets OSU, we're likely going to see them in the playoff. 

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bronxblue

October 31st, 2017 at 10:56 PM ^

I don't get the argument that PSU has an easier road to the playoffs because they don't really have a tough closing stretch.  The biggest complaint against PSU is their weak conference SOS; if everything holds serve, their two best wins will be against Michigan and MSU, two middling conference teams who'll finish the regular season with either 8 or 9 wins, tops.  Compare that to, say, Washington, who before you even factor in a Pac-12 title game appearance, get to face the S&P 45, 19, 51, and 23 teams.  They'll at least get some shots at picking up a few big-name scalps in the process.  

PSU had a razor-thin margin to make the playoffs, and it rested on them winning out against this 3-game stretch.  Failure to do so, I think, puts them in a really tought spot.  51% seems highly optimistic, perhaps an overreaction to OSU getting in last year despite not playing a conference title game.  But that OSU team team went 3-1 against S&P top-15 teams, including a wins at Wisconsin and Oklahoma.  PSU has none of that. 

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rice4114

November 1st, 2017 at 12:27 AM ^

The one with 1 loss is in. If its osu and Psu then its simple head to head and big ten champion which would both be osu. Thats easy.

Bama/georgia - win out and you are in. If bama loses they are still in. Bama could lose to kentucky by 28 this saturday and still make the playoff. They will always be the lead of the one loss pack. If Georgia loses in the SEC champ game then it gets interesting. There is the second spot.

Clemson is next. Win out and probably in.

Oklahoma wins out they have a decent shot. On Georgias level.

Washington would be left out if it came down to a group of 1 loss teams.

Miami is the x factor. They probably dont have the Bama OSU mulligan in their pocket.

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TrueBlue2003

November 1st, 2017 at 3:09 PM ^

as the conf champ would be interesting.  Say they lose to us, then beat the East winner in Indy.  They'd literally only have one good win.  It would be a great win, but would that be enough?  I think a two loss champ from another conference could get the nod over them in that scenario.

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Ty Butterfield

October 31st, 2017 at 11:15 PM ^

Seems like OSU would have the best chance. They will run the table and win the Big Ten championship.

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SpilledMilk

November 1st, 2017 at 11:19 AM ^

PSU needs alot of help to even get to the conference title game... They would need OSU to lose TWICE in the next four weeks. To me it looks more like OSU - 60% probability to make playoff, PSU 30%

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Hotel Putingrad

November 1st, 2017 at 11:13 AM ^

as the winner of the SEC championship will be #1, and then you're talking about an instant rematch with the loser at #4. not sure that'll happen. Now if it's a double OT thriller and only one other conference championship has one loss, you could see the loser falling to #3. But according to my calculations there's a .09% chance of that happening.

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TrueBlue2003

November 1st, 2017 at 4:43 PM ^

drop to 4th?  Could be 3rd too if they wanted to avoid the immediate rematch.  If the number 2 team loses a close game to the number 1 team, no reason to drop them arbitrarily.  The rankers thought the one was better and all that result proves is that the order of those two teams is correct.  Obvioulsy, if it's not a competitive game then you could conclude that maybe other teams are better than the loser, but that'd be the only reason to drop them.

I don't think UGA wins their next four games, though.  Some tough ones coming up.

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slimj091

November 1st, 2017 at 2:32 AM ^

I would comment on how ridiculous that it is that the team that you just beat is being given a higher chance to make the playoffs than you. But that would require sticking up for Ohio State, and there is not enough soap in the world to wash off that filth.

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creelymonk10

November 1st, 2017 at 10:23 AM ^

Could be 3 power 5 conferences shut out of the playoffs. If Alabama and Georgia are both 12-0 going into the championship game and Alabama wins, I think they both get in. If Georgia wins, Alabama may not get in with their lack of good wins. 

Then Notre Dame could steal a spot if they win out, which they really should, leaving just 1 spot for 4 other conferences to fight for. But PAC 12 probably out, so OSU vs. Oklahoma vs. Clemson for the other spot. 

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GeorgetownTom

November 1st, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^

I don't think Georgia should remain in the top 4 in this scenario. Georgia has a great win over ND (possibly the best win of any team right now), and a good win over Mississippi State, but after that they don't have any other top 25 wins. Georgia's remaining schedule:

vs. South Carolina
at Auburn
vs. Kentucky
at Georgia Tech

Auburn is the only currently ranked team, but if we assume Georgia goes 12-0 and Alabama goes 12-0. Auburn will be unranked by season's end having lost to both. And they may lose another game to Texas A&M. 

South Carolina is on the fringe of being ranked in the AP poll but if Georgia is 12-0 that means South Carolina has lost again and won't be ranked unless they beat Clemson. And if Alabama is 12-0, that means Mississippi State has lost again dropping them down.

So mostly likely by season's end Georgia's resume will have a top 5-10 win over ND, and a top 20-25 win over Mississippi State. There are going to be 1 loss teams with equal or better resumes that in my opinion warrant inclusion in the top 4 over a 1 loss Georgia.






 

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