Hoke's 2014 against Harbaugh's 15 and 16
All,
I, like many of us, lost my mind on Saturday both during and after the game. In fact, I posted a comment saying I was done for the season. After talking myself off the ledge, I have provided the following stats, which don't fix the results of this past Saturday's game, but should hopefully help some of us step away from the ledge. All comparisons are made to Hoke's last season.
2014: Hoke's Final Year
Points Per Game: 20.9
Rushing Yds. Per Game: 162.8
Passing Yds. Per Game: 170.2
Total Offense: 333 yds. per game
2015: Harbaugh Year One
Points Per Game: 31.4 (+11)
Rushing Yds. Per Game: 158.2 (-4)
Passing Yds. Per Game: 237.7 (+60)
Total Offense: 395.9 yds. per game (+60)
2016: Harbaugh Year Two
Points Per Game: 40.3 (+20)
Rushing Yds. Per Game: 213.3 (+50)
Passing Yds. Per Game: 212 (+50)
Total Offense: 425.3 (+92)
Who cares, right? /S We aren't beating MSU or OSU, and with Harbaugh came promised results and championships and total world domination!!! Yes, this may be a down year (but who knows because the season isn't over in October) and some of us might have had too high of expectations. You can't except a guy who wears the same outfit every day to do things differently, the expectations of the offense and the way he coaches will remain the same. I maintain that things will get better, hopefully you all can do the same.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:24 AM ^
week I guess. This is never ending
October 10th, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 10:24 AM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 10:28 AM ^
also part of my reason for the post. Let's all just relax, get over ourselves, and move on.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:27 AM ^
JH is doing a good job. He isn't going to air dirty laundry publicly, and you should be glad. Michigan has made a few missteps, particularly with OL recruiting, but that's the main problem I see. The QB is coming, but isn't there yet. We'll see that next year more. The WR corps is coming, but isn't there yet. Again, next year. Tarik Black was ready, but is out. That one hurts a lot.
The absolute worst thing right now would be to make wholesale changes. It is going to happen. The fanbase is just too impatient.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
Couldn't agree more about the missteps in OL recruiting. We needed to hit a homerun last year with our two biggest recruits and lost at the last second to Louisville and Stanford....that probably isn't going to happen a whole lot. Seeing them play in their first seasons and be successful is difficult to stomach, but it is what it is. That still wouldn't fix our WR's not running routes correctly or our RBs and Fullbacks not holding blocks. When I looked at some diagrams of Harbaugh's rushing offense playbook on Space Coyete's blog, it is super complicated and truly does require excellent execution by the line and a running back who has great vision in case the primary lane isn't available. It sounds like we are making the most with what we have, so we just have to suck it up. It's just frustrating that the fanbase wants Harbaugh to be someone he is not and somehow think he's too stubborn for not doing things differently.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:33 AM ^
This is my first post since last week. I have thought about the game and program.
1. Michigan hired the best candidate for Michigan and in all of college football after Hoke.
2. Michigan gave Harbaugh a blank check for coaches, facilities, recruiting, analysts, etc.
What else could Michigan do other than cheat? Maybe only Saban and Meyer have more power over a program. Jim can ask for something and will get it if its at all reasonable. Money is not going to be the reason to say no.
I have confidence this will get right. The offense is a disaster and not where I thought it would be. The defense has been above expectations the last two seasons. I am thrilled Don Brown will be here the next handful of years. I am not sugarcoating anything. I am simply stating Harbaugh is not a god but he is Michigan's best hope for the present and future. Even if by some chance this is a complete failure, Michigan has done everything in its power within the rules to get back to winning football.
The one thing I am frustrated with and it may not even be fair...I wish Michigan openly challeneged MSU or OSU (or both) the way the other programs seem to challenge Michigan. This is all from a fan perspective, but I'd like Jim's attitude he had at Stanford vs USC to work for this team in some way. Yes, its Michigan and not Stanford, but we have been the underdog in the rivalry games for over a decade.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
Not sure if the "blank check" equates to getting the best possible candidate for the job. Agree that we have that guy on defense but in no way do i think the same holds true for offense in Drevno. RIght now I place responsibility for both our OL struggles as well as our dismal playcalling on his doorstep and I dont know anybody (Harbaugh included) whose happy with it.
Remember too who the highest paid OC was in 2014. Hint - he's now the OC at Florida.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:57 AM ^
My point was that other programs (Wisconsin and even MSU recently) have been called out for being cheap. That is not the case here. We have the power to hire better people if Harbaugh chooses to.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:33 AM ^
I really don't think that expecting a third year Harbaugh offense to score more than 10 points at home against an unranked team is "too high of expectations".
October 10th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
I think you are missing the point, and that's ok. My point was that I think a good portion of the fanbase was not realistic in their expectations for the season. Most of us predicted 9-3, which is still more than attainable. Was the State game a clunker....absolutely. Do I think we should have won the game? Absolutely. Is the season over? Not by a long shot!
October 10th, 2017 at 10:45 AM ^
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October 10th, 2017 at 10:54 AM ^
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October 10th, 2017 at 10:53 AM ^
But many people expected a clunker to happen at some point this year due to our youth. I think many thought this team had the talent to win 10 to 12 games but would lose 1 or 2 that they shouldn't because it's so young. Well, that just happened, it just happened to come against a really unfortunate opponent.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^
I think many people were mistaken in terms of how talented this team was. Yes, Michigan had top 5 recruiting classes in 2016 and 2017. But those players are either sophomores who played sparingly last year, redshirt freshmen who did not play last year, or true freshmen who did not play last year. The veterans on this team come from the classes of 2014 and 2015, both of which were sub standard. The 2014 class finished in the top 25 but that ranking was inflated by Peppers who is gone. The 2015 class was the worst class in recent memory since Harbaugh was hired late in the cycle after Hoke flamed out.
Basically, half the roster is top 5/10 caliber. The other half is top 25/30 caliber. You meld that together and you have roughly a top 15-20 team, which translates to a 9-3/8-4 type team.
October 10th, 2017 at 1:46 PM ^
why does that only apply on offense? The defense is tremendous.
October 10th, 2017 at 9:52 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 1:50 PM ^
you are correct on all counts.
Still, even adjusting for that factors you cite, the offense should not be as dysfunctional as it has been.
Behind the D in terms of progress and with some 'growing pains' evident? Sure. Obviously.
But only 10 points at home against a sound but not at all elite MSU D and also just looking even worse than the point total? No legit excuse exists
October 10th, 2017 at 1:43 PM ^
a case of the 'clunker' loss to a lesser team due to M's youth.
This is a case of an offense that has been dysfunctional for the last 4 games (except in the 2nd half against Purdue).
I still think JH will get the offense to a much better level as the season progresses.
But I hoped/expected that the corner would have been turned during the bye week. Not so.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
A million times yes! It's amazing how fast the bandwagon starts to empty once the team suffers a setback.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:58 AM ^
The best predictor of future performance is recent past performance. And I don't see this offense suddenly turning the corner after spring and fall practice, six weeks of in-season practice, and five games.
I hope I'm wrong.
The offense, at this time, is less than the sum of its parts. Nothing is outright terrible, but put together it's just a mess. A mess that I find nearly unbearable to watch. After suffering through the RR offensive messes and the Hoke/Borges offensive messes, I'm just worn out from it. Entirely.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
Stop it.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:46 AM ^
Pre-season, the most popular picks were for Michigan to go something like 10-2 or 9-3 for the season. After the first four games, although they were all wins, a reasonable and objective person should have been able to predict 4 losses as more likely than 2 or fewer. Many of us (and I include myself here) started imagining a shot at the Big Ten championship or even more.The game Saturday was a reality check.
Granted, a loss to MSU wasn't on most people's radar, but that is more due to MSU's performance last year than this (and ignoring Michigan's shortcomings this season). It still stinks to lose a game the way it happened, but maybe it is time for a reality check. Michigan has some deficiencies on offense that need to be worked out, and soon. Otherwise, it is going to be a long and painful season for those expecting championships.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:49 AM ^
Thank you for posting this. I had been thinking all along that it's not as if our offense has been bad in all three of Harbaugh's seasons. It vastly improved in 2015 over Hoke's 2014, it was among the best in the country for most of 2016.
Starting underclassmen on the OL and at nearly all skill positions was going to lead to growing pains. We all underestimated that. With some of the young OL players, receivers, and QBs we have I have no doubt this will be much better next year. There's a reason we are starting so many youngsters in Harbaugh's year 3 - Hoke's final recruiting classes sucked. I know that sounds like an excuse but it is true.
I just hope they can figure some things out to get this offense servicable for the rest of this season. With our defense, 24 points would be enough to win nearly every game.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^
It's also important to state the (obvious) fact that Harbaugh made all of those improvement's with Hoke's players (save for Bredeson, Evans, and Higdon last year, whose contributions ranged from decent to not really positive). He took the kids that Hoke couldn't make a bowl game with, and had back to back 10 win seasons.
The folks seriously thinking about Harbaugh's ability, and even the tools who have the audacity to wonder if he is a better coach than Hoke (most of these are not our fanbase, but there are some "Michigan fans" in this group) need to consider following a different sport, because they're not picking up this football thing so well. Jim has recruited 3 quarterbacks to Michigan. 1 is a redshirt freshman, 1 is a freshman that they want to redshirt, and 1 is a hybrid TE that was probably never going to be a QB. Give the man time, and in the meanwhile, he will still win a lot of games.
Here is how Jim stacks up against the other major coaches in their first 31 games:
Meyer (OSU) 28-3
Meyer (UF) 26-4
Harbaugh 24-7
Saban 23-8
Fisher 23-8
Kelly 21-10
Petersen 19-12
Swinney 18-13
Dantonio 18-13
Franklin 14-12
I'm not sure who I missed that would be considered a top tier coach (and who has coached 31 games at their school), but only Meyer has had a better start at their school(s). Not Saban, not Fisher, not Swinney. I'm also pretty sure that only Harbaugh and Dantonio inherited squads with losing records. Jim has been damn impressive so far and I don't want to talk to anyone who thinks otherwise.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 11:00 AM ^
Stats can be deceiving.
You know the difference between Harbaugh and a lot of the guys you just mentioned? Those guys beat their rivals. Especially Saban and Meyer. Harbaugh is 1-3, likely to be 1-4 in November, and that only win came against a baaaaaad MSU team that still made it a game. You can talk about the one in a thousand blocked punt and 4th and 1 spot all you want. A loss is a loss is a loss.
Not saying Harbaugh is not a good coach. He is. And I'm not saying he shouldn't be given more time. But when you can't beat your rivals, what does it matter? He may be 24-7 as Michigan's coach right now, but his record in BIG games (the ones you remember forever) is far, far worse. And that is what your season, and your career, are ultimately judged by.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:22 AM ^
And yes, 1-2 vs MSU. But can we please not act like the 2015 game was anything other than a once-in-a-lifetime-level amount of bad luck on the last play? Even this year, played earlier in the day (or any time without the monsoon) and I am confident we win, even if ugly.
That 1-4 is a razor's edge from 3-2 and we all know it. It's not far from 4-1 for that matter. And in any event, to act like there is some better option out there to coach this team is a joke. We'll get there with Harbaugh. Quite frankly, if we don't, I don't think "getting there" is possible.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:36 AM ^
I never once said that there is a better option out there, nor did I say we need to get rid of him. I agree that he is our best bet, and if he can't get us there, I don't think anyone out there can.
What I'm saying is that a loss is a loss. You can spin it any way you want with "woulda shoulda coulda." You can talk about how it was a fluke play or it was a bad call. Michigan still put itself in situations where those final outcomes could happen. Couldn't pick up first downs, couldn't make key stops, stupid penalties at the worst possible time, etc. And they have no one to blame but themselves for those outcomes.
What matters at the end of the day, in sports, in business, in life in general, is the final result. And the final result currently says 1-4, and in all likelihood it will be 1-5 in about seven week's time unless something drastic changes.
October 10th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 2:00 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 1:48 PM ^
I nominate this for post of the year!
Well said.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:51 AM ^
But think of PSU last year. They get completely outclassed in every phase for 3.5 hours against us.
They turn their season around on some luck and good play.
As bad as it looked on Saturday, it can turn just as fast.
October 10th, 2017 at 12:20 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 1:54 PM ^
it will work out this year for M the way it did for PSU in '16, but...
...at this time last year PSU also had a terrible o-line, a coach that people actually thought might be dismissed at the end of the season, and a QB that was considered not very good--a low talent 'just heave it up' guy (who is now considered a pretty good 'just heave it up' guy).
October 11th, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^
https://michigan.247sports.com/Season/2013-Football/Commits
I can't believe that we missed on virtually every O-lineman we took that year.
You guys keep saying bad luck... It don't get any worse than that.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:52 AM ^
If you think scoring more than 10 points at home, off a bye week, against an unranked hated rival who is fresh off of a disastrous offseason filled with arrests and scandal is having too high of expectations, then I don't know what to tell you. You can talk about the monsoon all you want. Michigan had five turnovers. FIVE. MSU had zero. They all played in the same storm.
I didn't expect a national title this year. I didn't even expect a conference title given the youth of the team. But I expect that after three years of Harbaugh getting "his guys," after seeing a very proven track record at previous stops of producing a high quality offense in this amount of time (and even a shorter amount of time in SF), after paying the man nine million fucking dollars a year, that he should be producing an offense that is at least COMPETENT. One that doesn't consistently shoot itself in the foot and set the rest of the team back. I expect him and his assistants to play to the strengths of the players they have. I expect him to beat MSU on a consistent basis and hover around 50/50 when squaring off with Meyer.
Those are baseline expectations, pal. Especially when you're paying him the kind of money he's getting paid. What's pathetic as well is that MSU and OSU have better coaches getting paid less money to beat us every year. So they're getting a bargain for their results.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
Saban lost to Louisiana-Monroe. Weird shit happens when you're rebuilding a program with teenagers.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^
In his first year. Everyone more or less gets a free pass their first season. When was the last time Alabama had a loss that bad? That probably was the last time. Every other team it's lost to since then turned out to be a very good team. Like a national title contender or a national title winner.
He was steamrolling opponents by his second season and won it all in his third season. We're in our third year and our offense looks as hopelessly lost as it did when Hoke was here.
October 10th, 2017 at 12:21 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 1:37 PM ^
Loss to as bad of an opponent? Yeah they have not lost to any ULMs since. As for embarassing losses? How about blowing a 24-point lead against your main rival, their Ohio State? Yeah, that Auburn team won the NC...but Bama blew a 24 point lead! How about blowing an 11-point lead against an Ole Miss unit that wound up 9-4. Even Saban, the undebatable top coach in college football has had WTF moments throughout his career. This stuff happens in college football.
BTW, Dabo Swinney also started 1-2 against Clemson's only true rival, South Carolina (which has never been an elite program). I have to mention again that Harbaugh took over a team with a losing record, in the toughest division in college football. In the season before Jim got here OSU won it all, in Jim's first year MSU made the playoffs, in Jim's second year OSU made the playoffs. No elite coach has taken over a program with such an uphill battle in front of him and turned things around so rapidly. We were a legit inch from the playoffs last season.
Our offense averaged over 40pts a game last season. We lost damn near everyone. To even suggest comparability between Hoke/Borges and Harbaugh is moronic. You, and the majority of this fanbase, need a mega dose of reality.
October 11th, 2017 at 12:08 PM ^
We're gaining 385 ypg this season to Hoke's last year's 333 ypg. It's not as bad as the Hoke years. 27 for 27 has been replaced by 102 yards against state in a monsoon.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 10:54 AM ^
Thanks for putting this up.
This week, and frankly entire season, has been tough. I'm choosing to be optimistic. Every game this year, including Saturday pre-monsoon, we've made significant halftime adjustments.
I am livid with Drevno's playcalling, the way he's approached line recruiting, and his playcalling. I can't imagine he sticks around after this year. I'd really like to see more of the younger guys getting field reps at this point. These are my main gripes.
In the interim, we have an incredibly young team, loaded with talent. Everyone on the defense but Mo and McCray are back next year. Mo will be replaced most likely by Aubrey Solomon, who's looked good in his limited time on the field. McCray will be replaced by one of our awesome linebackers from the class of 2017.
Special teams wise, Harbs has gone out and gotten a great kicker and a punter who looks like he's going to be pretty damn good for 4 years. We have a legitimate punt return threat. Would like to see a better kickoff return game--thinking Ambry is the guy for that.
As long as we win the one's we're supposed to and win 1/3 against Wisco, Pedophiles, and OSU, I'm very happy with a 9-3 year with such a young team. And then seriously watch out next year.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
My first post after lurking for years. Please be gentle.
Cowherd's take on Harbaugh vs. Hoke
October 10th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
I am in the camp that feels like it is completely hypocrtical to point out the same weaknesses under year 3 and 4 for Hoke but give Harbaugh a pass this year because recruiting, etc. It is also clear that Harbaugh is a better coach and can win a lot of games that Hoke can't.
Clearly there is youth on this team. Clearly there is something wrong when you turn the ball over five times at home. How this team responds will be telling about them and Harbaugh. Things have to change and I imagine they will. Harbaugh does not seem like the type to blame execution and not change things until Ohio State.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:57 AM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 12:23 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 11:14 AM ^
There were a ton of things that you can point to Saturday that just didn't work. The most glaring thing to me was how awful the playcalling was, and really it's been the same all year. The addition of Pep Hamilton has brought the shotgun 5 wide in as a staple of the offense now, and with adding Frey we have both gap and zone schemes. They added all this to the existing offense and now they have a gigantic playbook that's probably even harder to master than the last two years. This isn't new info, but I just think we are jack of all trades and master of none. Football is an amazing sport that gets overcomplicated often by coaches.
The glaring difference with Fisch here and without him is stark. In the last two years, I was really impressed with how our offense had plays every game that baffled the opposing team. We would take a tendancy and use it against our opponent. One example of that this year was the sweep pitch that turned out to be a pitch/dive much like Les Miles used to run at LSU. How many more plays like that have we ran this year? We used to get these on teams a few times every single game.
I think the best solution is to throw out several things that they have tried to add this year that have not worked, and simplify the offense. Just pick one kind of blocking scheme and get good at it. Remove the fade throws that are such a low percentage play. Bring back WR screens, and any other play from the last two years that worked. Maybe Jed is gone, but we can still use any of his plays. I have to admit that I'm also a Colts fan, and that Pep was really bad as a playcaller in Indy. I was really nervous that we brought him in, and some of his bad tendencies are on display in Ann Arbor. I know that Harbaugh, Pep, and many other coaches all handle the playcalling together. It's the missing coach that has to be a big reason the game plans are so bad this year.