SB Nation: Coaching Hot Seat Over/Unders
So today, some of SB Nation's CFB writers took a look at the over-unders for a few college football teams with coaches seemingly on the hot seat, essentially to say if a coach would be fired if they were around that number.
While most of the names/comments revovle around guys you might expect: Sumlin, Kingsbury, RichRod, Gus Malzahn, Jim Mora, there was one section that caught my eye, for... reasons.
Michigan State: 6.5 wins
At 90-42, Mark Dantonio is in the conversation for the best coach in Michigan State history. But there is a sense that the program took advantage of some down years from Michigan and Penn State, and is now on the decline with the big three in the Big Ten East all climbing. Dantonio’s 2016 team was not young, yet went just 1-8 in Big Ten play. Still, is there any chance Dantonio is done if his Spartans barely make a bowl game?
Alex: Here’s a question for Michigan State: Could you do better? I don’t really see it. It’s not like MSU is a bad job, but Dantonio has a track record that will have been interrupted for two seasons. If the Spartans think they can convince someone great to come battle with Jim Harbaugh, Urban Meyer, and James Franklin, in a fine but not incredible recruiting area, they might fire Dantonio. I doubt they think that.
Godfrey: Remember John L. Smith? This job can get really difficult really quickly. The problem is that Dantonio failed to turn 10-win seasons into elite recruiting, and now Michigan and Penn State have reorganized and lapped Sparty in talent. MSU seems destined to regress from its Rose Bowl run. How much is to be determined, and this is a difficult job to hire for.
Dantonio and Fleck are different animals. I'd argue that the former is much more appropriate for the Sparty mentality. Fleck (whose ceiling still appears rather limited to me) is well-suited to places where his enthusiasm, etc., can make a big difference. I don't think he's in the same class as Dantonio (or even close). Minnesota might work in the short term.
Agreed MSU isn't going to pull a better hire right now, but Dantonio is trending on the "things have changed but I won't consider any change" stubborness a lot of successful older coaches go through towards the end that leads to their demise.
They haven't replaced Narduzzi with anybody respectable, he's been reluctant to fire his guys even with poor offensive results, the recruiting never branched out of his comfort zone (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Detroit) even when they were winning B1G titles and now those areas are being heavily recruited by major programs that were down 3-5 years ago but now are trending heavily up (Michigan, PSU, Pitt, Kentucky).
Factor in the recent scandals, and the fact they could be looking at b2b seasons missing a bowl game....and after this season the seat might be pretty warm. Depends how determined he is to hang on, and how aggressive Hollis will be (judging by how long it took Hollis to fire the worst college hockey coach of the last 15 years in Anatos, Dantonio probably has the job for life).
Disagree. Yes, of course they can hire some also-ran and meet all the middling predictions. But they could also sign some up and coming, cocky, extremely confident, charismatic, and talented coach, who finds his ultimate overmatched barroom brawl challenge coaching MSU in the B1G East (I think PSU will be pretty good going forward). Then they just might exceed expectations. Depends on whether the AD has some cajones and vision, and such a coach is available.
couldn't make a name for himself on the field so now he wants to try it off the field. Sad.
are in complete denial. There are quite a few where I live and they all unanimously agree that Dantonio will only be fired if he has 2 more bad years (sub .500) or if he was involved in institutional coverup of sexual assault.
They completely fail to see that to most everyone else, this just LOOKS really bad, and that bad image is often enough for a schools to make a big change, especially if there is a negative impact on $$$
and think Narduzzi will swoop in for the save.
Any mention of the purple-faced screamer in South Bend?
are currently off the board for O/U, so they didn't do those. Still, can't imagine a new coach will love opening 2018 with junior Rashan Gary and a fully weaponized Michigan offense.
Dantonio will quit at MSU if they shit the bed again this year. My reasoning is as such:
1. He doesn't seem to have control over the situations, granted, it is not a football coach's place to handle when 3 players allegedly commited sexual assault, his job is to game plan and move forward without them, but there are many decisions regarding personnel that are being made by those over his head, school president, board of trustees, AD, etc.
2. Remember that press conference he had to give before their Spring Game? That was the most boiler plate, lawyer speak stuff that's ever come out of his mouth. That was him at a low point because for a man who is normally passionate (I'll give him that based on his chippiness early on and through their good run) - he looked defeated because he was sent out as a sacrificial lamb, very uncharacteristic of him.
3. As mentioned in this thread, the 'crootin is becoming difficult for Mark D, the wins didn't translate, and now, assuming the three involved never play for MSU again (which I think they won't for obvious reasons, even without charges) those were 3 good recruits that *poof* gone. Contributors that would've helped. L.J Scott might be one of the last truly formiddable players on that offense and he already teased that he is leaving after his junior year.
While he wouldn't want to leave in poor circumstances, the world seems to be falling down around him at MSU, and at age 61, with prior health issues, I can see him walking away rather than go through a full rebuild.
Should have took the South Carolina when he was at peak luck - i.e. Cook throwing 20 INTs that were dropped, Oregon QB hurting hand, Purdue almost beating them at home, the "play" in Ann Arbor, Meyer coaching like Lloyd Carr in conservatism without a viable MSU QB etc.
Guy sold so many souls - he ran out.
That said MSU wont be firing this guy - his 10 yr run is statue level for them especially for a program that only cares about one game a year. He'd have to have 4-5 years of bad results for it to even come up. MSU won't find a better coach - Saban couldn't win there fergodsakes. And who of value outside of Narduzzi is going to come and want to play for 3rd or 4th place every year as long as Meyer and Harbaugh are here.
And missing another bowl is nearly impossible; 5-7 teams with appropriate APR (I think thats the acronym) are making bowls. They got Western in a down year, they have Rutgers which is still an auto win and Bowling Green coming off a 4 win season and they can find 2 other trash programs to get lucky against to go 5-7. I do think their 2018 squad will be pretty solid even without the 3 players.
Ironically their recruiting DID go up in the 2016 class - it was his best ever. But apparently full of alleged convicts and Auston Robertson types.
Dantonio is a full-fledged-ASSbag, but he's had an incredible run and buildings will be named after him.
Barring some major scandal he's involved with it would take a few down years before he's let go. If it trends that way he'll just retire.
No matter how much I hate him, you have to give him & Narduzzi credit for striking while Michigan was down. They beat Michigan over & over again and even had OSU's number a couple times. That's nothing no recent (or current) Michigan coach can say.
It pleases me greatly that Sparty hasn't been able to capitalize more on thier success, they roided-up, played dirty and turned a blind eye to get results but now have discovered that it's unsustainable.
Boo-fucking-hoo.
Jabberwock says
They beat Michigan over & over again and even had OSU's number a couple times. That's nothing no recent (or current) Michigan coach can say.
I think it's pretty plain that both Brady Hoke and Rich Rodriguez beat Michigan over and over again. And Hoke even had OSU's number. Once.
/sobs into coffee/
This is an idiotic prediction. No way Dantonio gets fired next year unless he gets caught cheating or breaks the law. He has built up a lot of good will at MSU, he could go winless next year and not get fired. I think if he had a really bad year in 2017 he might be on the hot seat the following year, but way too soon to put him on the hot seat now.
The guy looked tired as hell last year, before his lockerroom fully imploded and his team went a rapin'. My guess is he has a pretty good idea of an exit strategy in the next couple years, especially as they are going to suck on the field.
The summary of a Butch Jones team was fairly accurate, I thought:
"A Jones program thrives on turning non-accomplishment into accomplishment. This is how you get the Championship of Life, or Music City Bowl rings, or the commemorative flag he’ll commission for beating UMass 16-10 this year. It’s entirely possible Tennessee goes 8-4 and wins the SEC East."
So you think that if Michigan loses to Ohio State this year, Michigan will consider firing Jim Harbaugh? Quit being an ass.
This is an interesting theory. Assuming this:
We lose to OSU this year AND
Lose the bowl game
Does Harbaugh's seat get warm for 2018?
No. No, it won't.
He's already taken us to parity with OSU (losing by 3, on the road, in OT). Are you going to fire a guy because Delano Hill didn't tackle JT Barrett six inches before where he did? Do you remember the last couple times we tried to hire head coaches before Harbaugh?
This opinion is so dumb that it makes my head hurt.
I hope they keep the guy for year and years! He knows msu's best years are behind him.
History is not on Dantonio's side with regard to his future prospects. Dantonio's tenure is pretty much following the arc of MSU success in comparison to Michigan. When Michigan is down, MSU is up. MSU has only ever risen to the ranks of the elite when Michigan is a mess, but they've never been able to sustain top tier performance when Michigan is going great guns. Dantonio is facing a unique prospect of having his coaching tenure broach two phases of Michigan performance, which will ultimately put a tarnish on his accomplishments for the previous 8 years. I for one will enjoy seeing him go out on a low note.
...but, that 2014 team was one of the best B1G teams ever assembled. The bookends around it were surely a product of Michigan being down, but not wholly. I think it's more the chip on the shoulder stratagem only works for so long.
It is a meaningless penalty. They aren't going to be bowl eligible anyway.
there will be more than a couple knucklehead Michigan fans claiming Harbaugh should be on the hot seat.
As long as he needs. If you fire Jim Harbaugh, are you getting a better coach to replace him? No, not even close. Jim Harbaugh is here as long as he wants to be here, and that's how it should be.
don't rush things!
we going to get? Harbaugh was our grand-slam hire. He is seemingly carved out of marble to be Michigan's head coach. Yes, it sucks that Urban Meyer and Ohio State are so dominant. But literally no other coach with this Michigan roster would do much better. Also, we were playing with a senior-laden offensive line that was regularly blowing assignments and a quarterback who only thrived against weak competition. Very few of Harbaugh's recruits have seen the field yet.
Some good points AA. We can't have blind faith forever, the sweatervested tattoo shark had immediate results. Meyer had immediate results.
Bottome line:
There is REAL and IMMEDIATE pressure on Harbaugh to beat OSU this year. He cannot go into his 4th year 0-3 against our rival.
Meyer is 5-0 vs UM, IF he wins this year he will be at a level that will be difficult to catch up to. Meaning he will never have a losing record against us...
Peterson got to Washington at a particularly good moment: Oregon, which had seized its traditional status as the top non-California football school, was headed downward, even if that was apparent in Helfrich's first year, and Stanford has taken something of a small step back.
At the same time, USC was in turmoil, first with Sark's weird behavior, then the firing, then the hire of Helton. And it should be noted that in the two games in which U-Dub faced superior or equal talent, they got crushed, at home against SC and then Alabama, they got crushed. Hell, Browning was aful against Colorado, they needed an avalanche of turnovers to turn that game into a blowout.
Harbaugh, on the other hand, stepped into a situation with a fully weaponized Ohio State beginning to really flex its recruiting muscles nationally. He was behind OSU from the start, and to pretend otherwise is just silly.