Post-NBA Combine Stock Watch
ESPN's Chad Ford filed his report post-NBA Combine, and it does not look like DJ Wilson or Moritz Wagner did much to help their stock. Both players made his "All-Go-Back-To-School Team." The report is behind a paywall, but here is the important excerpt:
So who's on the All-Go-Back-To-School Team?
Michigan's Moritz Wagner and D.J. Wilson, Texas' Andrew Jones, SMU's Semi Ojeleye, Purdue's Caleb Swanigan, Maryland's Justin Jackson and Arizona's Rawle Alkins all are in serious risk of not getting drafted in the first round if they stay in the draft. Perhaps one or two make the cut, but most of them are looking firmly at the second round at this point. None of them did enough this week to really push them over the top.
Chad Ford was one of the analysts who had them ranked the highest before the combine.
Sporting News had DJ Wilson listed as a winner from the Combine and Wagner as a question/loser:
— Michigan’s D.J. Wilson is another prospect who had never been measured officially before, but came in with the goods on Thursday. Wilson was over 6-10 with a 7-3 wingspan and a 9-foot-1.5 standing reach that should allow him to not only play the 4, but to slide down to center in some favorable matchup situations. He pulled out of the five-on-five portion of the event with a quad injury.
— Moritz Wagner also got his first set of measurements, and came in slightly under 7-foot with a 7-foot wingspan. Wagner had quite a few defensive problems in college, and those measurements should continue to raise concerns as to whether he has the potential to become a plus player on that end.
DraftExpress now has DJ Wilson at #30 in their Mock Draft updated yesterday. Wagner is listed as their #86 prospect in their top 100, but I don't think that has been updated since the combine.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/
Neither player was really mentioned positively in SI's post-Combine Stock Watch:
Down: Indecision
There was a relatively small group of underclassmen without agents here, and not many looked especially ready for the big-time. With Jackson taking the plunge, that left Alkins, Andrew Jones, Moritz Wagner, Eric Mika, Justin Jackson, Omer Yurtseven, Thomas Welsh and Svi Mykhailiuk as undecideds in the five-on-five this year. Expect most of them to return to school. There’s also the group of D.J. Wilson (who sat out injured), Caleb Swanigan (who should probably go), Tony Bradley (the buzz was he’s leaning toward going) and Hamidou Diallo (who remains a wild card), who didn’t play fives and are on the fence. Alkins, Jones, Jackson and Wagner all showed strong flashes and unique strengths, but it may take a promise from a team to keep these guys from returning to college.
Alright, I want them to come back but these "experts" need to take it easy before they get these hands.
And they are off. There is no negative repercussions to doing this as more talent is always better if you are in that business. Lets hope there are people that arent misleading them. I feel like Darius Morris might have experienced that.
Those agents represent other players. If you burn them with one of their clients, don't be surprised if that agent steers players away from your team.
Anyone can whisper in Moe and DJ's ears... Some would even do it for free until the deadline.
the draft rolls around. Deadline to withdraw is May 24th. If they're promised to be picked and stay in the draft, they have almost a month to hire an agent before the draft. And if they get screwed over on June 22, that agent will make sure there's hell to pay.
From a team in the top 10-15, by all means leave. But if a team that's picking from 28-30 or so makes that promise and then someone falls to them they didn't expect, that's a massive kick in the nuts.
I like his posts about how the only thing Michigan is good at is losing. He must be very popular on Eleven Warriors
Half empty would be unbridled optimism from Ty.
Anyone watching the nba teams drafting outside the lottery this past month? Neither of these 2 cats are anything close to players. Caleb Swanigan is a maybe! He looks like some one that MIGHT get some time without getting lit up.. Its absurd to think people believe either of the W's pass the nba eyeball test (~yet). Mid second round teams might take a flier, but come on.
It's your best bet! And ours for a good run next season!!
GO BLUE!!
Bamba's not coming. So root for the current player on the team to come back.
Also, 4th year DJ Wilson will be a much better player than 1st year Bamba.
I don't know about that much. That's a hard thing to say. Bamba is going to be a top 5 pick in 2018, no matter how much he sucks in college.
But I don't care about the nba. So sucking in college would not be optimum.
I firmly disagree.
I would argue that you need a combination of talent and experience to go far in the NCAAT.
Have you ever looked at the composition of Final Four teams in the one-and-done era? I suggest you do some research. Someone here did a detailed breakdown of every team since the OAD rule was implemented.
You'll see that the overwhelming majority of Final Four teams have at least 3 upperlcassmen in the starting 5 (and usually a few more in the 7-9 man rotation). Hence, 2013 Michigan is the exception and not the rule. Consider our opponent in the NC game: check to see how many juniors and seniors were in Louisville's starting 5 and rotation.
Better yet, look at the 4 Final Four teams this season. How many one and done freshmen or two-and-done sophomores were on the 4 finalists?
If Wagner and Wilson return, it'll give us the best combination of talent *and* experience Beilein has had up to this point at Michigan.
You named:
1. Gonzaga's freshman Zach Collins (who was the back-up center)
2. South Carolina's Perry Dozier (who shot 40.7% for the season)
3. Oregon's Tyler Dorsey
...as the only underclassmen players out of 4 Final Four teams to declare for the draft.
There's a fourth. Freshman Tony Bradley of UNC (a back-up PF) declared but he's expected to return.
Lucky for me, I understand percentages. That 4 players out of 30-35 players (starters + back-ups playing meaingful minutes in the rotation).
I don't care if Kentucky "almost" made the Final Four. The Wildcats didn't. One-and-done talents can raise the ceiling of a team but they don't necessarily translate into a Final Four.
-------------
Experience matters tremendously in college basketball (as in any college sport).
Here are the young(er)* teams that have made the Final Four since the OAD era was implemented in the mid-2000s:
- 2006 Florida
- 2006 UCLA
- 2006 LSU
- 2007 Ohio State
- 2010 Butler
- 2011 Kentucky
- 2012 Kentucky
- 2013 Michigan
- 2014 Kentucky
- 2015 Kentucky
- 2015 Duke
That's 11 teams in 48 total participants (in 12 seasons). In other words, 22.9%.
And only 3 young(er)* teams have won the National Championship 2006 Florida (led by 2 future All-Stars), 2012 Kentucky (led by a generational talent in Anthony Davis), and 2015 Duke (thanks in part to most clutch freshman PG I've ever seen).
*I define a team as "young(er)" when it features 3 or more underclassmen as starters. By my definition, 2006 Florida's core of starting sophomores (Brewer/Horford/Noah) was young. The following season, the core of juniors renders 2007 Florida as an "old(er)" team.
So given that the overwhelming majority (~80%) of Final Four teams are led by experienced starting 5s, I think you severely underestimate the significance of experienced (re: junior/senior) players in college basketball.
Wagner seems sure to come back. Wilson on the other hand will probably stay. He seems like he would be a great fit for any of the contenders (Warriors, Cavs, Spurs). He is a "3-D" big and will be able to switch on screens. However coming back and improving his rebounding and ball handling could move him into the lottery area.
That's one of the questions you have to ask if you are on the edge. Can I improve my game enough to be able to move up next year? What factors play into that?
For example if I were Swanigan I'd stay in the draft because I don't see how he improves on last season. Contending teams will value a smart player off the bench who can rebound and play with length, while having touch around the basket. The only thing he can really do is get in better shape and even then there is no way he puts us stats to compare with this past season.
Wagner and Wilson both have a wide range of things they can improve on but if I'm Wilson I do wonder about the type of shots I'd get without Wilson. Could he get more? Yes, will they be as easy or as open without Walton? Probably not.
On top of that WIlson had the injury to think of. Will he be able to workout for teams? If so, when?
Lots of questions for Wilson, hard choice to make.
Like I said yesterday, I think both come back for one more year and this proves to be a valuable experience for both.
Swanigan will go in the first round, mid to late. He may end up on a good team sort of like Leonard did going to the Spurs. Both of the Michigan guys should come back to school, especially Wagner as he is improving so fast that he might vault himself into the top 10 for next year.
Nope. The league is constantly evolving but there is always room for talented players of just about every type. Additionally, we are living in the present, not the future. DJ has a lot of potential and I get that players get drafted on potential more and more, but DJ is not as good as Swanigan and teams in the back half of the first round are many times looking for guys that can contribute the next season.
Swanigan is going to end up as a bench scorer leading a good second unit, like Zach Randolph was used this past year. That's a fine value for late 1st round.
Is this a real comment? Are we being punked?
I think both will come back, and Charles Matthews might be better than either of them! We should have an excellent team next year!