247 UM Balls of Crystal & Other Stuff
February 25th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^
Wasn't the Tommy Brown crystal ball from some hack who puts them in randomly for the hell of it?
February 25th, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^
He's the director of scouting and recruiting for Varsitypreps.com.
Out of 851 crystal ball picks, he got about 64% of them correct so far.
February 25th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 2:40 PM ^
He finished 2017 at #32. He was 61.7& 319/517.
He just makes tons of picks and is not very accurate. Compare him to Ryan Bartow who finished #2 at 83.79% 429/512.
February 25th, 2017 at 2:45 PM ^
The rankings are done by points. If you make 1,000 picks and get 50% of them right, you'll probably end up in first place.
Being 62%-64% is a D or a D- in school.
February 25th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
So if Bartow got over 100 more picks correct and at 20% higher clip how is he not ranked #1. I dont understand that ranking system.
February 25th, 2017 at 4:12 PM ^
Part of the formula is based on the composite rating of the player, and how early the CB is put in.
So putting in a pick early for a highly rated guy can result in a bunch of points. If things start to trend in another direction, they can always change their pick without any consequences (just won't get the big point haul).
So from a point perspective, it's better to throwout picks early and often. However, from a credibility standpoint, it looks bad.
February 25th, 2017 at 1:53 PM ^
64% got me a High School Diploma.
February 25th, 2017 at 2:40 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^
We NEED to see a dual threat QB under Harbaugh. I keep flashing back to the good Kaepernick years in SF.
February 25th, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 12:57 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 1:58 PM ^
I'd say Andrew Luck, but then my idea of a true dual threat is a guy that is a great passer with good enough feet that he's dangerous there on a scramble or on an occasional zone read.
A guy that is carrying the ball 20 times a game is more of a run first guy that may or may not also be able to throw, IMO. Luck was a good enough athlete that he could have played that style, but it would have been a waste of a great arm. That's the kind of QB I want at Michigan (not that that's a great revelation - who wouldn't want that?)
February 25th, 2017 at 2:33 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 1:46 PM ^
We were 4 points and about 80 seconds away from playing for a National Championship this year with a QB who might not break 5 seconds if he ran the forty today. We don't NEED a QB that can run a sub 4.7 to win a title. And no, Speight's speed was not the difference in those 5 points.
I also think a mobile quarterback would be more fun to watch and would bring a new dimension to the offense, but I don't think that's worth it if they can't also give you 8 ypa, 60% completion and at least 2.5:1 TD:INT ratio.
February 25th, 2017 at 2:21 PM ^
I agree. I'd rather have the better throwing QB even if that means sacrificing him or that position as a running threat. I hope whoever they take as a "dual threat" guy can throw well. I'd like to not see the OSU types that end up as WR's in the NFL.
February 25th, 2017 at 2:45 PM ^
And Jim knows the calculus of the total value between combined throwing and running proficiency. I think he will always recruit the guy with the highest utility, so to say. Lately that means guys who are really good passers but also fairly athletic. Peters was a solid high school basketball player and probably runs a 4.8ish 40. Dylan McCaffrey might be even slightly more athletic than Peters. Some cycles this might mean a guy like Milton who can run a lot better but is not as polished a passer yet. Some cycles this may mean a slower guy who had a college-ready arm in 8th grade. I certainly do not think Harbaugh wants pylons with arms, but he won't recruit the OSU QB who is really a running back that you have to teach to throw, just in order to have a running threat behind center.
February 25th, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^
Speight can definitely run a sub 5 40.
February 25th, 2017 at 12:39 PM ^
Demetric Warren puts a lot of crystal balls in, but he also runs his own recruiting site. We are recruiting many kids from Mater Dei but I'm not sure where we actually stand with Brown. I haven't heard his name connected to us much before this CB.
February 25th, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^
Michigan isn't recruiting Sitkowski anymore.
February 25th, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 2:47 PM ^
I like Milton, but he's a project. Maybe a slightly better athlete than Brandon Peters, so nothing exceptional. He needs a lot of work on his footwork, mechanics, etc. But I like his anticipation, and I like how he throws the ball on the move. He's not an elite player right now, but he's a good prospect for down the road.
February 25th, 2017 at 12:58 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 1:43 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 2:05 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 1:29 PM ^
I just want Daniel Faalele in this class.
February 25th, 2017 at 1:41 PM ^
He is the size of about 20 teenagers, which is what the class would otherwise end up at.
February 25th, 2017 at 2:03 PM ^
Can he actually play football? 247 sports just saw him in person and rated him a non descript 3 star, which I'm sure is almost entirely based on his measurables. With spots tight in this class I'd rather get more sure things on the OL this class, especially because UM took a lot of project types in the last class.
February 25th, 2017 at 2:39 PM ^
He's about to play his first season of American football. Do you really want to turn away an athletic kid who might end up at 6'9 360 who we currently lead for? I definitely want him in the class, especially since he plays a position that generally takes 2 years to turn into viable starters anyways. He may come to Michigan and do nothing but train and develop for 3 years, and that's fine by me. If you trust your position coach, and by all accounts we have one of the best, he's got the physical tools that will allow him to be coached into an utterly dominant player at his position.
February 25th, 2017 at 2:49 PM ^
His position coach has two consecutive years of mediocre offensive lines. I don't trust Drevno's evaluations blindly.
Regardless, I don't really care that he's 6'8" and 400 lbs. There are plenty of big people who have sucked at football. If he hasn't played American football, and we haven't seen film of him, then I think there are better options.
February 25th, 2017 at 2:53 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 3:11 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 3:14 PM ^
2018 class predictions / class size / etc.?
February 25th, 2017 at 3:30 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 6:50 PM ^
That's true, but even good programs are capable of whiffing on prospects. I mean, Michigan saw him at a camp and offered. His size is tantalizing. But again, there's still a very good chance that Michigan has bigger fish to fry (metaphorically, of course).
February 25th, 2017 at 4:53 PM ^
But those lines were slightly better than they were before Drevno got here, and he was working with Hoke's talent that had been coached for two years by Funk, a horrible coach. As someone who has done a lot of scouting, you of all people should know that a kid who has been coached one way (a poorly way) for 3 years is hard to break of old habits and make into an All American. I would still judge Drevno on his past lines and, at Michigan, he should be judged on the success of the kids he recruited. If we have a horrible line in 2018 when it's composed of all Harbaugh/Drevno kids, then we can say Drev is overrated.
Until then, Tim Drevno's reputation is one of the best offensive line coaches in football, as evidenced by his stellar lines at Stanford and San Francisco.
There have been plenty of giant dudes who have been bad or mediocre at football (even this year, Zach Banner will get drafted but was disappointing), but how many of these guys have had Drev as their coach? Faalele plays a position where, if you can coach two individuals to exactly the same level of skill, the larger individual is the better option. Until he proves that he can't do that, I trust Drevno to mold a raw guy he recruits like Faalele into an elite player.
February 25th, 2017 at 2:45 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 3:39 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
February 25th, 2017 at 2:15 PM ^