Michigan 75, Indiana 63
Wagner hits 3, runs over Tom Crean. pic.twitter.com/YdwT35WGlv
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) February 12, 2017
In one sense, this felt deeply unfamilar. Michigan entered today's game with zero road wins on the season and one victory in 17 tries at Assembly Hall since 1996, that an overtime win over a terrible 2008-09 Indiana squad. They never trailed the Hoosiers or even came particularly close to relinquishing their lead.
In another sense, this felt pleasantly familiar. Michigan turned up the defensive intensity, forced 15 turnovers—ten in the first half—and rode hot perimeter shooting and another tremendous game from Derrick Walton for a comfortable victory over the Hoosiers.
If this wasn't a must-win game, it was damn close to it, and Walton once again played with an intensity that matched the stakes. He scored 25 points, going 7-for-13 from the field and 9-for-9 from the line, while adding five rebounds, four assists, and three steals. It was a masaterful performance that had the CBS announcers full-on fawning over his play:
"How did he do that??" @umichbball https://t.co/BSlyh9p2xV
— CBS Sports CBB (@CBSSportsCBB) February 12, 2017
Much like in the first contest, Walton's main scoring support came from big men Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson. Wagner overcame a series of extremely questionable calls to post an 11-point, ten-rebound double-double while helping keep star IU center Thomas Bryant (8 points on 8 shots, 3 turnovers) in check. Wilson did a little bit of everything on both ends; he showed off an NBA-caliber array of shotmaking to net his 13 points on 6-for-11 shooting and his NBA-caliber combination of size and coordination to tally three blocks and three steals.
Other than Zak Irvin (5 points, 1-for-8 FG), whose offensive woes continued, the supporting cast had another strong outing. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman needed only four shot equivalents for his seven points and once again made James Blackmon Jr. a relative non-factor; Blackmon scored only six points, three of which came on a meaningless garbage-time shot. Duncan Robinson hit a couple timely threes, playing his part in making sure IU paid dearly for their live-ball turnovers. Xavier Simpson followed his breakout MSU game by converting a strong take the hoop on his only shot attempt and chipping in two assists and a steal in 12 minutes.
The first road win of the season couldn't have come at a better time. Michigan is now 16-9, 6-6 in the Big Ten, and they'll be in the field in the next round of NCAA tournament projections; in many of them, they'll be taking Indiana's place. A 3-3 finish down the stretch, which features four road games and tough home contests against Wisconsin and Purdue, should have the Wolverines in position for an at-large bid. That looks a whole lot more realistic this afternoon than it did a week ago.
February 13th, 2017 at 11:04 AM ^
Isn't that what Mathews is supposed to be?
February 12th, 2017 at 7:44 PM ^
February 13th, 2017 at 9:13 AM ^
...does not respond to opinion trends on this blog."
no, they don't, and thank god.
February 12th, 2017 at 8:06 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 9:42 PM ^
February 13th, 2017 at 9:25 AM ^
I am beginning to wonder whether we are just seeing Irvin in a new role, one that apparently works better for everybody else on the team. i went into this game thinking that he was still a key piece to the puzzle offensively and even said so on here, but I realized watching this game that the ball just sticks to his hands the offense bogs down. Everytime he got the ball and they forced him into a going left pick and role I knew we were doomed.
I think he is really getting to focus in on playing defense right now, and I think he is proving to be a formidable on the ball defender, and he has also has a knack for disrupting passing lanes near the top of the key. I mean he isn't a stopper and he still allows guards to get the edge at times (our help defense or lack thereof near the basket is a more significant factor there, though). I think the Irvin should just let offense come to him. If the rest of the team continues to play this kind of ball I really don't know if they need him to be a consistent scorer.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:24 PM ^
To be honest, I'd say we've had only two really poor games from an effort standpoint in league play - at Illinois, and at home against OSU. The OSU one is especially galling because OSU didn't even shoot well, they just outworked us.
But in the other 10 conference games I think our effort's been there, and we're a bit unlucky to only be 6-4 in them. Most of our wins have been lopsided while Iowa, Maryland, Wisconsin and at MSU were all competitive games that we let slip away.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:30 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 4:09 PM ^
or whatever.
February 12th, 2017 at 9:47 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 4:24 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 4:38 PM ^
Michigan is #60 nationally, and #2 in the Big Ten (behind Wisconsin) in KenPom's experience stat, with 2.05 years of experience, weighted by playing time. Having two seniors each playing 30+ minutes per night is unusual in modern college basketball, especially among power conference teams. Here are all of the major college programs with an experience score of 2.00 or higher:
- Iowa St, 2.58 (4th nationally)
- Texas Tech, 2.41 (9th)
- Pitt, 2.30 (18th)
- Arkansas, 2.26 (23rd)
- Clemson, 2.16 (35th)
- Colorado, 2.11 (49th)
- Wisconsin, 2.10 (51st)
- Notre Dame, 2.11 (52nd)
- Michigan, 2.05 (60th)
- Arizona St., 2.03 (66th)
- Washington St., 2.01 (72nd)
Simply put, Michigan is an experienced basketball team.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:46 PM ^
The only problem with that stat is that one of our seniors is in a total funk. If we'd had Irvin's sophomore or junior self this season, we'd probably be a top 25 team right now. Let's hope he can get his confidence back.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:58 PM ^
I don't think it's rational to think that a coach might be fireable if he misses the tournament (by the way, do people think that Thad Matta and Tom Crean should be fired as well? They've done less than Beilein since the year of the tourney run. Legit curious here) but that if he makes his seat is secure.
If it's really this close to the edge, and attendance suggests that it's more than just some outliers on this board discouraged with the program, then a poorly seeded tournament berth isn't going to cure all ills. If that in fact buys him another year, it only buys him another year--and that means that his seat is warm and the charcoal starts getting piled under it the first time they struggle next year.
February 12th, 2017 at 5:07 PM ^
Beilein's 64. He's probably only going to be here a few more seasons, regardless. Given that he is about to become our winningest coach in program history, I think Manuel will let him ride it out. I am fairly optimistic about next season, though, and think we can have a good enough season to make it academic.
Matta and Crean are another story. I could see either or both being fired within the next year or two if they don't get it turned around. (I thought Matta was close to retirement, but somehow he's only 49.)
February 12th, 2017 at 5:58 PM ^
he is 49 going on 60 if you know what i mean, doc.
February 12th, 2017 at 7:24 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 7:22 PM ^
Matta's only 49? He looks terrible.
February 12th, 2017 at 5:46 PM ^
I don't mean at all that Beilein is coaching for his job in this next month, or anything like that. What I'm saying is that if we're in the tournament this year, that's it - there won't be any discussion of his job security at all.
IMO, this is a transition season. We entered this year with a lot of question marks, whereas next year I feel it's mainly a question of whether Simpson can develop into a starting PG. If he can, and if we return all our non-seniors, I like next year's squad.
February 12th, 2017 at 6:03 PM ^
the development of simpson is huge but not imperative. i think the offense can be run through maar, moe and DJ pretty easily next year. plus, there are two new frosh point guards coming in. if X falls flat, there are multiple options to help bail out the team.
this is also w/o seeing anything of matthews. he is supposedly an excellent slasher and great defender. hopefully, his outside shot is coming along too.
robinson, livers and watson provide additional depth.
February 12th, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
February 12th, 2017 at 9:04 PM ^
I never said they aren't experienced. I absolutely understand that college basketball in 2017 is far different than in the 80s and even 90s, and having 3 seniors in your top 7 isn't a luxury all teams enjoy.
My issue, I guess, is the mirror one you are pointing out. This isn't 1985 anymore; teams that average basically a sophomore of experience were considered "young" and prone to ups and downs, yet now we expect those same teams to play with ice water in their veins at all times.
I don't have the Kenpom experience numbers available, but looking at basketball reference for teams ahead of UM in the conference standings, I see Purdue has 4 juniors and a sophomore and a freshman in their top 6, Maryland 3 juniors and 3 freshmen (with the freshmen getting more minutes), NW 3 juniors, a senior and 2 sophomores, and Minnesota has a senior, 2 juniors, 2 sophomores and a freshman. PSU and Iowa, the two teams closest to UM, are reasonably young (they mostly have freshmen/sophomores and then 1-2 upper classmen per team). So yes, Michigan is experienced, but they aren't demonstrably more experienced than the teams around them save for, again, Iowa and PSU. And while Walton is playing great, it's not like the rest of the seniors have been particularly good this year; Donnal is getting minutes because there aren't other big men around him Beilein seems to trust, and Irvin gives them some defensive effort but his shot has disappeared for basically the whole month.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^
Maryland might play 3 juniors and 3 freshmen but Trimble is the only returning starter from last year. Jok is the only returning starter for Iowa.
Michigan returned all 5 starters from last year.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:36 PM ^
Good call. Conveniently, KenPom has a measure for that too (added midway through last season) -- "Minutes Continuity." Essentially, it's the percentage of minutes used by the same player this season as last season. Again, Michigan performs well on this metric, because so much of the rotation is unchanged. Here are the Big Ten ranks:
- Wisconsin 87.2% (1st nationally)
- Ohio St 68.2% (29th)
- Michigan 68.2% (30th)
- Illinois 65.3% (43rd)
- Purdue 60.7% (76th)
- Northwestern 54.9% (125th)
- Nebraska 50.3% (179th)
- Penn St. 48.4% (197th)
- Minnesota 43.8% (234th)
- Rutgers 40.1% (262nd)
- Iowa 38.2% (274th)
- Indiana 37.3% (279th)
- Maryland 35.3% (290th)
- Michigan St 35.0% (294th)
This is yet another reason that people exepcted Michigan to have a better season than they have... so far.
February 12th, 2017 at 10:30 PM ^
FYI, here are the KenPom experience numbers for the Big Ten:
- Wisconsin 2.11 (49th nationally)
- Michigan 2.05 (60th)
- Illinois 1.95 (88th)
- Ohio St 1.71 (179th)
- Northwestern 1.69 (186th)
- Purdue 1.55 (234th)
- Rutgers 1.44 (268th)
- Nebraska 1.34 (288th)
- Minnesota 1.29 (295th)
- Indiana 1.24 (308th)
- Michigan State 1.19 (314th)
- Maryland 1.17 (319th)
- Penn St 1.02 (339th)
- Iowa 0.91 (344th)
For the purposes of these rankings, a freshman has 0 years of experience, a sophomore 1, a junior 2, and a senior 3. This excludes the playing time for "benchwarmers" (anyone playing less than 10% of available minutes) -- their minutes are excluded from the calculation entirely, regardless of class.
Thus, at 2.05, Michigan averages a junior. (If you include Ibi and Teske in the calculation, they drop to 1.99; they're currently excluded). Donnal is classified as a senior for these calculations, but DJ Wilson is classified as a sophomore -- it looks like Ken is using the class data published by the schools.
Anyhow, by these metrics, Michigan has about 2/3 of a year more experience than the bulk of the Big Ten. How much of a difference that should really make is an exercise for the reader.
I agree that the seniors haven't performed up to expectations this year, with Walton the obvious exception. I think that's the problem. Your original question is "Why do people keep calling this team experienced?" My answer is that they are experienced, but they haven't necessarily profited from that experience to the degree that we would hope. Furthermore, the freshmen haven't been good enough to earn regular playing time until X broke out against MSU. And, yes, we are expecting more and more out of younger players as time goes on -- it's true in football too, but it's exacerbated in basketball by the number of transfers and early draft entries relative to the roster size. I think the most disappointing thing about this season, so far, is that Michigan has not been able to turn their experience advantage into consistent effort on the court. Perhaps that's now changing; certainly, the last two games have been much more intense than @Illinois or vs. Ohio State.
Still, there's plenty of time to make this season a memorable one. Go Blue!
February 13th, 2017 at 12:08 AM ^
DJ is a third year sophomore and Robinson is a fourth year junior, and that doesn't even get counted here, but it certainly matters.
Which means we have 4 fourth year players, and 2 third year players in the eight man rotation. Wagner is the only underclassman that gets significant minutes, although X is creeping up there.
Very experienced team, yes.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:41 PM ^
You have guys in Walton and Irvin that are supposed to be the consistent, productive, senior leadership core of the team (and Walton is certainly coming through here). You have guys like MAAR and Donnal who are the guys that Beilein is supposed to coach up into real, key contributors at this point in their careers (and guys like Aubrey Dawkins and Kam Chatman who are supposed to be productive parts of the roster as well).
And in Wilson and Wagner you have some young talented-but-inconsistent guys who can supply a lot of things.
But this is still a team built around two seniors. That's a lot of experience in big-time college basketball, and it should be enough. If it isn't, well, that's on Beilein.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:55 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 5:05 PM ^
You didn't get the point of what I wrote at all. I never even approached the idea that Irvin and Walton are playing at similar levels right now; I'm disussing the wide-angle outlook, which is that Michigan has in Walton and Irvin two guys who are SUPPOSED to be the core of an experienced, quality team. There is neither stated nor implied any analysis of how they are actually performing at the moment, just the statement that it is fair to judge Beilein's performance on how a team with this kind of experience should and often does perform in college basketball.
And you're not making sense saying "college kids rarely get that much better." Even less sense is your Levert example, which Levert himself (along with classmate Nik Stauskas) clearly disproved in the massive leaps they both made from their freshman to sophomore seasons. Guys with physical skill who stay in programs develop all the time.
February 13th, 2017 at 12:43 AM ^
February 13th, 2017 at 6:54 AM ^
Uh, there's also Wagner and Wilson, just on this year's squad. They didn't look like this as freshmen.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:43 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 4:52 PM ^
DJ Wilson is a redshirt sophomore. He only played four games his true freshman season before being shut down with an injury.
February 12th, 2017 at 5:53 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 4:56 PM ^
This team, if they play like today, has possibilities.
I understand people may not approve of what you have said in the past, but I fail to see what is wrong about asking for consistency of effort, and better decision-making from Irvin. (Irvin probably is what he is at this point, his on-court basketball IQ is not likely to improve. Walton's emergence has helped Irvin be more complimentary, but his liabilities will cost us again most likely. If you bench him, you probably destroy whatever confidence is left.)
Your analysis is correct I believe. Keep the momentum going and take the game vs. WI, and finish the season on a hot streak of sorts. The committee likes that.
As Michigan fans, we are all looking for success in the form of wins, that should unite us more than anything there is to divide us.
February 12th, 2017 at 7:38 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 3:56 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^
Duncan's defense sucks. Irvin had some good defense and dime assists today. If he can keep staying involved, he'll find his shot eventually.
February 12th, 2017 at 5:34 PM ^
Robinsons man-on D is still undoubtedly weak as he lacks lateral quickness, but he is actually pretty good at his help D and in anticipating plays. His man-on D is no worse than Wagner's or Wilson's--who both get bullied down low (see, Davis today and everyone on OSU)--the latter compensates by being very good off-the-ball. And while I have been very pleased with MAAR's 180 on D the past 5-6 games--before that he also was having trouble staying in front of his man.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:00 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 5:05 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 5:10 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 4:14 PM ^
Mentioned this elsewhere, but perhaps Beilein's greatest strength is that he gets his teams to take good care of the ball. We've currently committed the fewest turnovers in the country. When you think back to the Amaker days, the difference in this area is night and day.
We've committed eight turnovers in each of the last two games, while our opponents have committed 21 and 15. That adds up over the course of a game. It's easier to win when more of your possessions end in shot attempts.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
Eh boy. Yikes. It's ok to have an old man game if you can hit some shots, but combining an old man game with a bad rec-league jumper is just a disaster. Irvin's shooting looks like a freshman--a high school freshman. If he takes 10 jumpers, he looks like he's shooting it 8 different ways and the misses are atrocious. I don't know what is ailing him, but let's hope he fixes it like now. If he IMPROVED to being simply bad, they can do a few things this season.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:03 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 4:03 PM ^
February 12th, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^
And I hope this game gets the One Frame at a Time treatment, Ace.
February 12th, 2017 at 4:20 PM ^
Simpson's contribution came at an absolutely critical time.
Walton and Wilson were mentally and physically strong. Wagner also played smarter, and rebounded well even though he kind of got hosed on a couple of calls. When Wagner plays well, we have a shot against most teams.
This looks like a different team since OSU, but they are going to have to sustain it rather than rest on their laurels, or they won't make it in. Like @Indiana, the Wisconsin game at home is a great opportunity for them. They need to take it.
Comments