SIAP: CFP Chairman calls last week's loss 'impressive,' explains why we have a shot

I want to get in as a 3 or not at all. I believe a month for Harbaugh to prep gives them a fighter's chance against Bama as a 4 but they will be physically beat up. I want OSU in a 2v. 3. Neutral field. Waste them and go into the championship game with that high.

that 4-7 are so close. That could be interpreted as just setting the table for "all things being roughly equal, you pick the conference champion."  But agree with comment below that this is largely being made up as they go along.

Both Clemson and Washington lose, and PSU wins. Playoff is 1. Bama 2. OSU 3. PSU 4. Colorado.

I know this makes no sense. But the past 2 decades has shown that we clearly can't have nice things. This scenario would be maximum anguish for U-M fans knowing we rightfully beat 3/4 teams in the playoff.

I will legit eat a lemon if we make it in. Bookmark this thread, e-mail me 

karpodiem at gmail dot com

best thing that could happen is if Clemson, Washington, and PSU win. 

1) Alabama

2) Clemson

3) Washington

4) PSU

that is the optimum outcome for Michigan.

Washingtons SOS means little...thats what so frustrating about any selection process..They say it matters but in the end it doesnt...wtf?

The analysis of the article, not so much.  To me the tell is the author's discussion of Florida State and Louisville.  The author seems to believe the fact FSU is one spot ahead of Louisville means that FSU will get the ACC auto-bid to the Bowl game if Clemson goes to the Playoffs.  This is incorrect.  If a conference champion goes to the Playoffs instead of using the conference's auto bid, the Bowl game as first CHOICE on ANY team from the conference; they are not bound by the Playoff Committee rankings or anything else.  The author's DERP on this point, and it was a major point in the article not just a throw-away comment, causes me to question whether the rest of the analysis is sound.

The Committee members comments cause me to feel much better about Michigan's chances when compared to Conference Champions of Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma or OK State.  In my mind, a one loss champion trumps a one loss non-champion trumps a 2 loss champion trumps a 2 loss non-champion (among P5 schools; Western Michigan is not a Playoff team in my opinion).  But, the Committee member said that the margin between a hypothetically one loss Pac 12 Champion Washington and a 2 loss non-champion Michigan is "razor thin."  That tells me we have a decent shot if Clemson or Washington loses, and we compete with a 2 loss champion with a less impressive resume.

The problem with all of this is that Michigan is done for the year.  We're like the downhill skier or the diver that has completed his last run or dive.  We're in good position now, but the teams with a game to play have a chance to move past us, and we can do nothing.  I don't worry about Penn State or Colorado, because Michigan won those games decisively.  However, I think that if Wisconsin wins decisely over Penn State, they have a strong argument.  Their only two losses would be close losses on the road to the consensus two best other teams in the B1G, and they have that psychologically huge win over a decent SEC team early in the season.  I have no idea what to make of Oklahoma or OK State.  Keep in mind that OK State "lost" to Central Michigan only because the officials allowed the last play of the game that everyone now agrees was a mistake.  It takes no imagination at all to consider the game to be over, in accordance with the rules, one play earlier and with OK State the winner.  If they win the Big 12, they really have only one loss and one embarassingly close win over a MAC team.  What does the Committee make of that?

Like everyone else, I would dearly LOVE a rematch with OSU.  Beating them in the Playoffs would cleanse the stink of losing "the Game" for the 999th time in 1000 tries.  (I kid, but only slightly).  As many observed, Michigan's intensity would be beyond 100% for that game, and I feel a win would establish psycological parity between the two teams for next season.

We live in interesting times.

That's why it's important to continue pointing out officiating bias Brian.

For 2 years now though, the best 4 teams did not get into the playoff. In 2014 the best 4 teams were Alabama, Oregon, Ohio St, TCU (Florida State was not a top 4 team but they were undefeated and defending champs).

Last year the top 4 teams were Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Stanford. The comittee just couldn't justify putting a 2 loss conference champ over a 1 loss conference champ.

This year they would really be breaking previous strategies if they decide to truly go for the "four best teams"

Who think Michigan will pass Washington with any form of win, you'd be pretty mistaken. The committee would be lit on fire if a team won their title game sitting at the 4 spot was passed over by the #5 who didn't play.

Washington or Clemson HAS to lose. That's the only path forward.

As great as being in the CFP would be, I think the bigger prize would be the opportunity to play Ohio State again and curbstomp them on a neutral field with (hopefully) impartial refs.

If I'm going to remain intellectullaly honest, I don't want any non conference champs in a 4 team playoff. I've always said the thing I hate about basketball is 4th place teams having a shot at being National Champs. If they couldn't win their regular season, they have no business playing for a national championship. That's the one thing that makes college football so great. The regular season actually matters. Last year, OSU was one of the top 2 teams easily, but lost their chance by losing to MSU. I'll cheer my heart out if Michigan makes it, but I don't think either they or OSU should in a 4 team playoff. They didn't earn it in the regular season.

Until a 6 team playoff where top for conference champions and 2 at larges at most happen, I'll always believe the teams that earned it in the regular season should be in. I understand some schedules, like Penn State's make it easier to get there, but they still one they key one they needed.

I'm skeptical. If Colorado or Oklahoma win, there's a decent chance they jump us. We sort of need Colorado to win though, because VT winning over Clemson seems pretty unlikely. Also, we probably need Penn State to win the championship game, and win it close, because there's virtually no way #6 Wisconsin doesn't jump us with a win. Even then, Penn State fans would have every right to be wildly pissed to not get in over Michigan. Our best case scenario is probably if both Washington and Clemson lose and we go in as the 3rd big ten team, but even there, I'd expect they're more likely to take the Big Ten winner, OSU, and Colorado, because if there are 3 Big Ten teams in the playoffs every other conference will cry bloody murder. I think there's a pretty good chance, of the top ten teams we are actually the least likely to make the playoffs, although Oklahoma State would clearly be a stretch. But by all means committee please prove me wrong, if the selection criteria really is the 4 best teams, I think Michigan is undoubtedly one of them.