27 Tickets To Team 137: Pre-Spring Edition
What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. I have appropriated it. Regarding the number of tickets: 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + nickelback + FLEX TE + H-back.
PREVIOUSLY: Pre-Bowl. There aren't a whole lot of changes for this one, which is good.
PACK YOUR BAGS
1. CB/S/KR/PR/WR/RB/NICKEL Jabrill Peppers, So.* [Last time: 1]
Began the year as a one-man screen destroyer and ended it as the top option at a half-dozen spots. M may work him in as a RB more; still assume his primary duties will be on defense, where a little bit of development in coverage will make him a scary all-purpose demon. Adding a half dozen touchdowns of all varieties could propel him to NYC.
2. CB Jourdan Lewis, Sr. [Last time: 2]
All-American set the single-season Michigan PBU record because opponents kept targeting him despite that being a very, very bad idea. Titanic matchup against future NFLers Cook and Burbridge will be remembered by both sides for a long time. Headed for first round of draft but not for another year.
3. LT Mason Cole, Jr. [Last time: 3]
Developed into an A- run blocker and B pass blocker in year two as Michigan's left tackle. Some deficiencies against the top tier pass rushers and will never by NFL prototype. Could move to C if Grant Newsome is as quick a learner as Cole was; 0.0% chance anything save injury pushes him from lineup.
4. FLEX Jake Butt, Sr. [Last time: 4]
Inexplicably not a Mackey finalist despite athleticism, catching radius, and absolutely fantastic hands. Blocking just okay but far from a liability. Seriously how did this guy not win the Mackey? What are you even doing, Mackey? Are you playing Fallout 4 and randomly selecting guys your slacker brother suggests? Drugs are bad, mmmkay?
5. NT Ryan Glasgow, Sr.* [Last time: 5]
Won Order Of St. Kovacs as a sophomore and then turned into a slightly poor man's Mike Martin as a junior before he was hewn down by a shoulder injury. Violent player who added serious pass rush, linchpin of Michigan's rush defense for much of the year, great endurance, if you call him a "former walk-on" he will and should rip your head off.
6. SDE Chris Wormley, Sr* [Last time: 6]
Mega-jumbo defensive end wreckt all tight ends who tried to block him. A key part of Michigan's stunt game and reasonably capable of getting to the QB himself, Wormley matured into an all-around force. Can also play three-tech. As a senior you'd like to see him bring a little bit more organic pass rush to his game but other than that holes are hard to find.
7. WR Jehu Chesson, Sr.* [Last time: 8]
Open deep all year and finally got on the same page with Rudock late for season-ending surge. Fast. Murderous blocker. Jet sweep maestro. Fast. Polite. Fast. Went from Stonum-ish to Breaston-ish to Manningham-ish over course of season. Huge year beckons if QB situation right.
8. WR Amara Darboh, Sr* [Last time: 9]
Nearly lived up to Avant-esque reputation with series of bonkers catches and chain-moving underneath YAC. Hands maybe a tiny bit iffy. Like Chesson, a quality blocker and a WR screen target thanks to his burly tackle-breaking ability. Got more separation than previous years but not really a burner. Very solid option nonetheless.
9. K Kenny Allen, Sr.* [Last time: 10]
Early-season kicker worries dissipated as Allen went 14/18 on the year with one miss due to a bad snap and a second that got blown across the face of the uprights by a sudden gust of wind. Didn't hit anything particularly long, but had a bunch of touchbacks when he wanted to have touchbacks. Another year of reliability beckons.
10. FS Dymonte Thomas, Sr. [Last time: 13]
The unfortunate departure of Brian Cole bumps the safeties up into total lock category. Thomas is a lightning bolt who finally figured out the direction he should be zipping halfway through the season, displacing Hill after some bumps. Encouraging play after ascension to starter status relieves post-Wilson worries.
![14703806397_2eda27a3c1_b[1]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/images/3c7b452918ed_B771/14703806397_2eda27a3c1_b1.jpg "14703806397_2eda27a3c1_b[1]")
11. SS Delano Hill, Sr. [Last time: 14]
Started season as starter before aforementioned hiccups. Still saw plenty of PT after nominal benching and did better. Severe case of Greg Oden disease means he will look exactly the same age—42—for the next 50 years. Must tackle people when behind them, that's a protip.
UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS
12. ILB Ben Gedeon, Sr. [Last time: 12]
The only returning LB with non-garbage time defensive snaps to his name and starting MLB by default. "Default" is never a good thing to hear in a depth chart discussion but Gedeon has been serviceable to date and should at least continue producing at that level. Inability to wrest more PT from Bolden does worry.
13. CB Jeremy Clark, Sr* [Last time: 20]
Moving on up only because I think I was excessively cautious about Channing Stribling taking his job. That's not likely to happen; Stribling will play but Michigan has something Richard Sherman-shaped in Clark, and his 2015 was a star-crossed on during which excellent coverage turned into compost because of bloody fate.
14. G Ben Braden, Sr.* [Last time: 15]
People were leery when the tackle-shaped Braden was tried at guard again, and then downright alarmed after Utah's DL put him in the backfield for 60 minutes. Soon after Braden settled down and became M's most consistent lineman behind the two lock starters. Lunging massively reduced. Seemed to know what to do more than others.
![385446_3012007678845_1455385026_n1_thumb[1]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/images/3c7b452918ed_B771/385446_3012007678845_1455385026_n1_thumb1.jpg "385446_3012007678845_1455385026_n1_thumb[1]")
15. T Erik Magnuson, Sr*. [Last time: 16]
Middling season as a tackle. Okay at run blocking but occasionally frustrating, especially on the second level. Pass protection generally good but, like Cole, struggled to cope with top-shelf rushers. Not going to be All Big Ten next year; difficult to see anyone supplanting him.
16. G Kyle Kalis, Sr* [Last time: 17]
Sounds like Klingon, plays like… uh… a notoriously confused Star Trek race. Maybe those Darmok guys? Physically powerful and prone to mistakes, Kalis was up and down and up and down. IDed what he was supposed to do too late too often. Probably destined to frustrating what-if player. But if it all comes together clicky clicky etc.
17. FB/H-back Henry Poggi, Jr* [Last time: 18]
2015 headshot of the year winner. Lebowski fan. Frequently retweets people saying he looks like an anthropomorphic thumb. Had slightly confused transition to FB/H-back but demonstrated ability to move people as year went on. Not much of a runner yet and will cede snaps to someone (Shallman?) who is. Sometimes there's a man.
FAIRLY SAFE BET
18. QB John O'Korn, Jr* [Last time: 17]
Houston transfer was platonic opposite of Jake Rudock: huge arm, aggressive, kinda nuts. 3000 yard freshman year devolved into Hackenberg-like frustration and benching. Touted as superior to Rudock in workouts, and for half of 2015 that was very plausible. Competitors are all freshmen or Borges recruits. In Harbaugh We Trust.
19. OT Grant Newsome, So. [Last time: 22]
Burned redshirt after LTT's dismissal and looked the part of a sun-eclipsing, rush-obliterating NFL left tackle in the mold of Long or Lewan. Even wore 77 to speed those comparisons. Long way from looking like it to being it. Major X-factor for season as sudden emergence into good LT frees up Cole to put out most pressing fire elsewhere.
20. P Kenny Allen, Sr* [Last time: NR at Punter]
With Michigan passing on a random Aussie (so far) it's Allen, not Peppers, who gets the first-ever dual nod on 27 Tickets. Allen was originally recruited as a punter and has displayed a booming leg on scattered opportunities so far. Won't be as precise as Blake O'Neill but should be able to flip the field on the regular like he did.
IN A BATTLE
21. WDE Taco Charlton, Sr. [Last time: 11]
Sometimes you move down because something good happened, and Rashan Gary happened for Michigan. While Gary's long-term position is not WDE, he could slot in there as a freshman. Pushing senior Taco out of the lineup after a 5.5 sack year as a backup is probably a hill too far; uncertainty just went up. Taco's cannibalism compounded by the fact he appears to be eating his namesake from the top?
22. 3TECH Maurice Hurst Jr, Jr.* [Last time: NR]
Like Charlton, Hurst would slot in much higher without Gary but makes the list despite him. Hurst was mostly great a year ago as a nose, a disruptive penetrator with a spectaucular first step. Did struggle against extended doubles and especially zone stretches late in the year. Performance still enticing for sophomore. All Big Ten performance relatively likely.
23. SLOT Grant Perry, So. [Last time: 23]
Freshman thrust into the fray in opener, whereupon he was responsible for two INTs and relegated to spot duty for the rest of the season. Role naturally limited in Harbauffense; did get a bunch of snaps late as M abandoned running the ball. Solid blocker on screens and promises to be a consistent underneath option once he learns what he's doing.
24. TE Khalid Hill, Jr.* [Last time: 21]
Position was already up in the air somewhat but with Devin Asiasi coming in at 260 or 270, Hill will have stiff competition for AJ Williams's snaps from the drop. Hill's a smooth receiver who has a squat, blocking-friendly build and should hold off Asiasi and TJ Wheatley, for a given definition of "hold off" that includes a ton of rotation.
25. RB De'Veon Smith, Jr.* [Last time: 25]
Run at left emblematic of season, as he missed his hole but ran over half of BYU to score anyway. Erratic vision, slow, impossible to tackle, fantastic blocker—Smith is a guy who helps you win football games but maybe not as a feature back. Walker, Peppers, Johnson, and others will push for, and acquire, significant carries.
26. ILB Devin Bush Jr, Fr [Last time: NR]
Early-enrolling freshman was clear top option on M's board throughout recruitment and serendipitously fits Don Brown's desire for fast, instinctive LBs even if they're a bit small. Relatively well prepared to contribute and start early w/ dad a former NFL LB. Furbush, McCray (if healthy) will push for time.
27. SAM Noah Furbush, So* [Last time: 26]
Furbush bumps Wangler from the projected SAM spot since the coverage SS/LB type guy is Peppers, more or less, and the SAM is going to be put over a tight end against manball outfits. Furbush, a special teams force a year ago, is your wild-ass guess as to who might get those snaps.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TECHNICALLY NOT STARTERS BUT CLOSE
RB Drake Johnson—if he can stay healthy.
RB Kareem Walker—okay he's not Fournette but let's not dismiss him out of hand because of a couple of recruiting ranking downgrades.
TE TJ Wheatley—not moving to OL, should get in on some jumbo-jumbo TE packages.
DE/DT Rashan Gary—heh
NT Bryan Mone—massive Tongan was reputed to be better than Glasgow before last season. This was not true, but Mone was badly missed after Glasgow went out.
DE Matt Godin—if allowed to push out to SDE will be an effective backup for Wormley. If forced to play 3TECH, look out.
PUSHING FROM BEHIND
QB Zach Gentry—rumors of move to TE way overblown. M will take extended look.
QB Wilton Speight—threw winning TD against Minnesota but didn't look like a guy who had a shot at displacing O'Korn. Could transfer.
RB Ty Isaac—doghouse for fumbling and then doghouse for extracurriculars.
RB Karan Higdon—quick little guy had one nice carry and got swarmed a lot at LOS.
RB Kingston Davis—absolutely not a fullback
WR Moe Ways—Darboh analogue had a few catches, should be eased into more PT with an eye towards 2017.
WR Drake Harris—temporarily healthy, did little, still really skinny, got hurt again.
WR Nate Johnson—mean-ass slot receiver, if that's a thing. Golden Tate is ceiling.
WR Kekoa Crawford—Hawaiian for smooth.
WR Eddie McDoom—MCDOOOOOOOOM
WR Ahmir Mitchell—early enrollee could move to S
TE Ian Bunting—Ol' Skillet Hands saw PT drop as season progressed, but just one year removed from being HS WR so not a surprise.
TE Devin Asiasi—plug-and-play inline TE has some depth chart hurdles to clear.
C Patrick Kugler—will be a redshirt junior; given performance this year could displace starter. Magnuson, Cole flexibility means that if he's best five he plays.
G David Dawson—stuck behind middling Gs a year ago, will get a shot.
WLB Mike McCray—health issue was a labrum that required a second surgery, reportedly full go by late last year.
ILB Chase Winovich—returned to LB after lost year as TE.
ILB Reuben Jones—move to ILB a stop-gap, I think.
ILB Elysee Mbem-Bosse—most field-ready of ILB freshmen outside of Bush.
CB David Long—program ambassador role starts now, CB starter in 2017?
CB LaVert Hill—Jourdan Lewis analogue in HS; will play with expectation of starting next year.
CB Channing Stribling—maybe 30% of the snaps last year; middling performance.
CB Brandon Watson—saw some nickel snaps when M was trying to save Peppers a bit.
S Tyree Kinnel—burned redshirt indicates he'll compete for the job.
WAITING THEIR TURN
QB Alex Malzone—not going to compete physically w/ O'Korn or Gentry but could develop into a Rudock type down the road.
QB Brandon Peters—true freshman will enter with a boatload of hype
QB Shane Morris—will he be on the roster?
FB Wyatt Shallman—now is the time to try his blocking out. Constantly hurt.
WR DaMario Jones—scattered snaps a year ago, got passed by guys younger than him.
WR Brad Hawkins—another S candidate
TE Nick Eubanks—Funchess 2.0
TE Sean McKeon—Butt 2.0?
G Michael Onwenu—can play at incredible weight, but probably not 370.
T Ben Bredeson—Must pan out.
G Stephen Spanellis—road grader needs seasoning.
T Nolan Ulizio—late pickup last year hopes to build for 2017.
T Juwann Bushell-Beatty—late early for him
WDE Lawrence Marshall—ghost after enormous pile of spring hype.
WDE Ron Johnson—explosive edge rusher needs year of meat sauce
SDE Shelton Johnson—probably has to cool his heels and put on more weight.
NT Michael Dwumfour—Hurst-esque NT/3TECH needs polish
CB Keith Washington—Breaston-esque HS QB competing at CB, coming off redshirt.
CB Freddy Canteen—moved from WR. It could happen?
February 8th, 2016 at 1:45 PM ^
This looks like an incredibly deep and solid team. If Harbaugh and staff continue to develop highly rated Hoke recruits and get some production out of the highly rated freshmen (Gary and Walker) this could be a special year.
I don't think we have had a team this deep since the Carr years. Just praying that O'korn lives up to the hype and the freshmen linebackers can make the correct reads and fly to the ball, because with our D-line depth and strength, they shouldnt be needing to shed too many blocks.
It's definitely HAPPENING!
February 8th, 2016 at 2:34 PM ^
A lot hinges on if the OL can improve their run-blocking (112th in the nation according to opportunity rate) which won't be easy since Glasgow left. The hope is that year 2 in the same system, with Drevno developing mostly the same group, will produce consistency and improved performance.
The other piece is QB because duh.
The only real question on defense is how Brown manages the transition and the turnover at LB. It seems logical to max strengths (DL, DB) and minimizes weaknesses (LB) so this probably isn't that hard. Gedon's athleticism should fit very well.
February 8th, 2016 at 1:47 PM ^
I'd wonder if there's anybody who can provide some insight onto what kinds of players Harbaugh fills all his blocky/catchy types with. Just off observation, it seems like Poggi/Hill/Asiasi are way too tall for the FB position and not good enough carrying it to fill the role vacated by Houma/Kerridge. I look at it like:
Poggi: H-Back. Lines up in the backfield. Motions across formation to hit people. Can leak out in the flat once in a while.
Hill/Asiasi: U-Back. More of a receiving threat than the H-Back or FB. Lines up on the end of the line, offset from the FLEX or an inline TE. Useful speed to set the edge or come back on DEs.
Wheatley: Inline TE. More of a blocker who can catch than a receiver who can block. Larger than the U-Back and more of a "would this guy play OL if we needed him to?" Plays with hand in the dirt most of the time. This was the A.J. Williams role.
Butt/Bunting: FLEX. You know what Butt can do.
FB?: Lines up in the backfield. Can take quick handoffs and burst through the line. Solid at targeting LBs and blowing them up. Short and stout with good leverage.
Again, might be way off, and I'm sure somebody will correct me if I am.
February 8th, 2016 at 1:50 PM ^
But, do you think it helped Peppers by redshirting Hoke's last year and being a RS Fr this year instead of being a sophomore? Maybe I am over-analyzing this, but IMO Hoke proved he was not great at developing talent. Peppers was so eager to finally get his chance to play this year and had a full offseason with Harbaugh and staff. Like I said, just a random thought.
February 8th, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^
February 8th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^
Peppers played his freshman year until he got hurt. He won't be around for his 5th year anyway. The red-shirt is totally meaningless.
February 9th, 2016 at 10:36 AM ^
whether they RS or not. So RS-ing makes no sense.
Hell, Peppers might be a Heisman finalist this year. He'll be in the first 2 rounds of every upcoming mock draft. He's leaving early.
February 9th, 2016 at 10:37 AM ^
Except in his case it was a medical redshirt, and yes redshirting Peppers makes no sense, but for a lot of other prospects it absolutely does. It's a case by case thing, there's no blanket prescription here.
February 9th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^
But in general when you have really talented guys who can actually earn PT on ST and/or in important games (e.g., not FCS opponents), you should play them even if it's only 20 reps a season.
But when your roster is loaded with talent (think Bama) or loaded at a the relevant position, RS-ing makes sense. Exceptions are the DL b/c typcally starters are irrelevant and lots of guys rotate. You always have to be aware, however, that even guys who RS could leave after 3 years; and if they do, you've missed out of 1/3 of their production.
One benefit of playing guys early is that you can sell elite recruits on early PT (b/c you've actually played true FR). The downside is that your roster turns over more quickly...but Harbaugh seems to be just fine with roster turnover ;-)
February 8th, 2016 at 2:01 PM ^
February 8th, 2016 at 2:08 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
February 8th, 2016 at 3:26 PM ^
but I wouldn't trade R Glasgow's senior year for any other lineman on the roster. Dude is an absolute BOSS in there.
February 8th, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^
to be in the rotation every game on the D-line. And him starting by sometime during the season is also very likely - especially if he is on the edge.
February 8th, 2016 at 2:21 PM ^
This is always a fun column to debate. Here are my qibbles:
· Lewis is a better football player than Peppers right now. Peppers more versatile but Lewis' all-american mastery at CB should give him the edge. Only one of these guys is giving up TDs.
· Given that M’s run-blocking was 112th in the country and that Glasgow seems to be impressing the entire world, Magnuson is “OK”, and Braden “consistent”, either Kalis was HORRIBLE or Cole was NOT an A run-blocker.
· Organic pass rush is overrated. Brown’s artificial blitz-mad scheme is going to make Wormley more valuable than ever, even if all he does is shut down opposing run games.
· Chesson for Heisman. Darboh is a replaceable role player. Chesson is a star. These two shouldn’t be ranked as equals.
· Whoa – Gedeon over a bunch of proven OL starters? The only returning OL with non-garbage time offensive snaps that doesn’t project to be a starter is nobody. Gedeon is important as a ‘default’ starter but the OL are going to start not by default and if they don’t succeed the situation isn’t much better than if Gedeon doesn’t. Gedeon should be 5 spots lower at least. I’d swap him with O’Korn, personnaly.
· Poggi is too high here if for no other reason than Hill could easily replace him. Neither is a traditional FB, but at least Hill can catch a bit and is more or less short enough to function as a FB. Shallman’s a threat here too. Poggi limitations with the ball in his hands are a major hinderance and Harbaugh's love for position changes is well documented.
· If Kenny Allen makes the list twice he should probably be ranked higher (once – unless he cloned himself).
· Michigan recruited about 5 guys to replace Perry, who was good “for a freshman” but also entirely unexceptional.
· DeVeon Smith is by far the best back Michigan had last year and the only thing threatening him at RB is the gaping hole at FB that he might be the best candidate to fill. Way underrated considering no one has any real hope of displacing him as the 3rd down back.
· I know this thing is based on the idea of throwing nominal starters out there, but our backup DL (Gary/Mone/Godin) and 3rd CB (Stribling) probably play more than the 3rd ‘starting’ LB. Ross' role before Ojemudia's injury was minor and that was a quality senior with experience. Whoever the 'starting SAM' is might not be much more important than Allen Gant was last year.
February 8th, 2016 at 2:57 PM ^
I see this list as more of a hardest to replace listing as well. There is no way Peppers isn't #1 as he is essential to M limiting LB time on the field and we don't have anyone on the Roster to take his place...(maybe Thomas but that leaves a hole at safety, maybe Hudson as Peppers-lite but a freshman.). JL is a more developed player but his skillset is more easily replaced - both Stribling and Watson saw somewhat meaningful snaps last year.
This is the same reason Gedeon is so high. I don't believe any of the other LBs has seen meaningful snaps in their entire career. Kalis transfers or gets injured? Dawson and Kugler have extensive practice time (few meaningful snaps but OL is a zero rotation spot so is different.). If Gedeon gets hurt, even the staff has little idea how our LBs will fare. --- Or maybe they do which is why we pursued so many recruits.
I agree on Poggi. Brian seems to like him a lot as a blocker but I would prefer my FBs to be more Houma-ish. If Shallman doesn't emerge/stay healthy Poggi may be our best bet but not as high on this list imo.
Gedeon
February 8th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^
Hardest to replace? If so, then putting guys like Furbush and Bush on it is nuts.
If Peppers were to get hurt, I'd put Lewis at nickelback - where he played a good bit last year anyway. Not as good against the run but better against the pass.
Nobody - not even Stribling can replace Lewis. Peppers is probably closest but he has a long way to go in coverage.
It's a nitpick to be sure though. Both are elite talents, but Lewis age/experience advantage has him as the more complete and dominant player right now.
February 8th, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^
Kugler and Dawson have plenty. So do McCray, Furbush, and Wangler. None of these guys have played enough to speculate which are more ready. OL rotates less, but LB was deeper with seniors. It's pure speculation.
Similar situations at FB/LB in a way. The seniors (Houma/Kerridge) really prevented us from seeing what the real options are for 2016. Poggi clearly will play some role, but his lack of ball skills make it unlikely he will anything like Houma or even Kerridge were last year. There may not be an exact replacement for them.
February 9th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^
a stretch last year. IIRC Harbaugh has said that he has plans to use Peppers in even more ways this year in all 3 phases. B/c of this, I'd say he's #1.
February 8th, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^
No injuries to safeties please. No injuries to LBs please. 2 areas we need to get some puck luck as injuries will hit somewhere.
Realistically same for QB if we have a chance at playoffs.
February 8th, 2016 at 2:55 PM ^
We've talked ourselves into someone emerging from Newsome/Kugler/Dawson to be a starter but none of those guys are remotely proven.
If you take Gedeon as a given there's only one real LB spot to fill - same as OL.
February 8th, 2016 at 3:29 PM ^
This is college football, there will always be areas where there won't be proven depth. Newsome, showed some flashes and Kugler has a pedigree.
In the case of the OL there are at least bodies that have played and practiced OL at Michigan around and enough versatility with the starters between Magnuson and Cole that someone a little less versatile can be put into a position to succeed. This is not really the case at Safety right now. We can all pick and choose what to be concerned about, but I think being concerned about the OL to the extent you're portraying is a bit of an over-reach. Next year, I'll likely be much more willing to buy this argument but for this year, I think the position is stable and can handle an injury or two.
February 8th, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^
Like Dawson (who has played a handful of meaningful snaps), Watson and Kinnel have played a bit.
At safety, Michigan can shuffle guys around and play proven starters like Peppers and Clark by relying more on Stribling or other CBs. The secondary is deep in general. I made the same argument last year when people were fretting about #2 corner. With all the pieces we had there (and still have there) there's very little reason to worry beyond just exactly how well the presumed starters play. When you have 5 promising candidates for one spot around a bunch of excellent players - you're going to be fine barring a string of injuries.
In contrast, the situation at OL is not very bright. It was the worst position group on the team last year by a longshot and lost the top guy. There is a gaping hole in the starting lineup at center. Yes, there are candidates to fill it (Newsome at LT, Kugler, maybe Dawson) but none of them are remotely proven and the fact that Michigan recruited Raulerson speaks to need. If an injury happens, we're in trouble. Even if it doesn't OC and/or LT are kind of a big deal.
Yes there's also a gaping hole at the other LB spot, but it's not any less scary than the situation at OL. Especially when you consider that LB is far more freshman-friendly and the relative inexperience of the candidates is excusable. There was a good reason for guys like Wangler, McCray and Furbush to be sitting on the bench as Ross, Bolden, and Morgan drew most of the snaps. They were legitimately blocked by people older than them.
Not so much true at OL where we had, once again, a true freshman emerge ahead of a bunch of people years older. There are rumors Michigan is trying very hard to get Blake Bars back next year. Like Raulerson, this is a bit troubling.
February 8th, 2016 at 2:48 PM ^
Love Brian's work overall, but one of the longstanding bones to pick is how his biases or partially-formed theses (extrapolated from mixed and/or limited data) sometime crystalize into truisms. Sometimes that is falling in love with a player, other times that is relegating a player to undeserved also-ran status.
Example here: the laughable thought that Channing Stribling ought to be grouped with Vert Hill (or even David Long) in likelihood of PT as a 2016 CB. Utterly preposterous. While I'm a huge fan of Hill's long-term potential, it is complete nonsense to expect a PSL kid to come in and make plays like we often see from Stribling. See: undercutting Florida WR on a well thrown, well run deep square-in during the bowl game for the PBU.
Sure Stribling has some whiffs (some very frustrating), but he can and will play. A lot, actually ... and while he may not beat out Clark for the #2 CB spot, there is a near 100% chance he would be next man up if Clark was injured. He is a far steadier pair of trusted hands out on that CB island than either of the incoming freshmen, regardless of their respective ceilings. We have, for example, significant evidence that Stribling has made tons of progress as an open field tackler, especially when he's isolated against the run (an important element of the CB trade that few freshmen -- particularly the "pure cover corner" variety -- can perform sufficiently). We have ZERO basis for an informed opinion on that matter for either Long or Hill.
The prevalence of subtle biases among the non-stars in Brian's work is not new. Nor is it entirely bad. It gives us something to debate. And, unlike various other 'M' website personas, he isn't so threatened by it as to freak out in response. But it is a weakness that I have noticed creeping in through certain recountings and subjective analyses (UFR, etc) over the years.
February 8th, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^
Stribling was neck and neck with Clark all year and only lost his starting spot when he got hurt. Even after he was back he still got a lot of snaps and was highly effective. There were a few times this year (Indiana was one IIRC) where Clark got picked on and Stribling came in. Now, Clark won the job clearly by the end of the year, but both of these guys are high quality players that would be starting on almost any other team in the country. The gap is exaggerated above.
The freshman will play a bit but it will be for the 2017 team's sake, not because they are pushing Stribling or Clark.
February 8th, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^
How dare that Brian-guy interject a best guess piece with anything like "what he thinks".
I am genuinely not sure what you are saying here. Are you suggesting that he improve his pieces by changing what he thinks?
As to your particular post: do you not agree that the staff would like to get playing time for two players that will be expected to contribute when the three seniors graduate (including Stribling)? Does Brians expectiation that Harbaugh will look to the future really constitute a bias against Stribling? I am pretty sure Brian would agree that Strib is due for a lion's share of the playing time in the event of injury. Your tirade may be accurate, but this is a particularly dumb place for it.
February 8th, 2016 at 4:15 PM ^
will have everything to do with prepping for 2017 (if they have earned the reps - nothing is given) and says nothing about Stribling.
I'd guess Stribling will get the 3rd most CB snaps this year - and personally don't see him much different than Clark. (Just rewatched the FL game and seeing Clark wait for that easy INT to come to him while allowing the FL receiver to jump in and break it up drives me nuts every time.)
It would be nice to see Watson, Washington, or even Canteen step up to get some snaps so we aren't as reliant on the young ones for 2017.
February 8th, 2016 at 4:22 PM ^
Stribling, as the 3rd guy for 2 spots, is a lot like Ross was last year. Harbaugh elected not to play any young players other than Gedeon. Ditto a buck LB/WDE - where it was RJS and Ojemudia (and then Ross) instead of some of the highly regarded freshman.
I have little doubt that Long and Hill will get their feet wet but it's doubtful they play meaningful downs with all the seniors we have.
Harbaugh is a win-now kind of guy and anyway - most development happens in practice (not in games).
February 8th, 2016 at 8:48 PM ^
February 9th, 2016 at 6:23 AM ^
February 8th, 2016 at 4:17 PM ^
There's certain stuff that 'sticks' from recruiting opinions and other hype/otheses. For example, there was an argument for a while that Kalis almost started his freshman year and was a slam dunk starter heading into his RS freshman year. That seemed dubious at the time and indeed, 3 years later he's a weak link of sorts. Kalis was the #7 player on this list a year ago thanks almost entirely to recruiting hype from HS. Kalis has improved every year yet he's lower on this list now than he was two years ago. That seems worth questioning.
Then there was the Dymonte Thomas hype a few years ago where he was the presumed starter and defense-defining hybrid space player. There was pretty massive Darboh hype, well exceeding Chesson, that seems to be lingering, even after Chesson's breakout year where the staff tried everything in their power to get him the ball in every way possible.
Peppers is important - obviously - and he's a unique talent, but he's a little overrated here (again). The idea that he is critical to stopping spread attacks took a major hit against OSU and Indiana. He's a huge asset in the screen game, but we saw him exploited in coverage. Clean that up and we can talk about being on the level of Jourdan Lewis and Wormley - guys who are all-american caliber players.
Recruiting faves Norfleet and Canteen have made the top 20 of this list.
....
I think it's reasonable to debate some of the stickiness of these...Anyway, the poster said it's good for conversation. Nobody is getting criticized for having an opinion. Nobody expect this to be a flawless exercise with perfect accuracy. Predictions are difficult (but fun to discuss.)
February 9th, 2016 at 11:35 AM ^
If you're going to take the time to talk down to me, you might want to first go back and do a careful read of both Brian's piece (including what he stated up front as this piece's intent, i.e., the context in which it was to be read) and then also my specific comments (which most assuredly did NOT question Brian's prerogative to write "what he thinks"). To clarify, he said he was laying forth his view of the order in which specific players were most likely to be starters at the 27 listed positions.
To your questions:
1) yes, I am suggesting the Brian improve his occasional heavy categorization of the non-star players ... yes, I think he should change what he thinks. More precisley, I think he should change HOW he thinks. He would be well served to let his opinions flow more fluidly with incremental data on players as it arrives. He has an observable bias in some (NOT all) cases among the lesser players to establish a point of view and then cling to it, many times against futher evidence, and some times (like here with Stribling) against reason. It can make for entertaining writing and perhaps he feels it is a useful tool in conveying to the average reader a sense of his expertise (which is, in fact, very deep), but I've seen it get off the rails from time to time. He sometimes crystalizes his view, and then it just flows downstream from that point. For example, it is not remotely reasonable to expect at this juncture that either of those two freshmen are in the same likelihood category as Stribling (a very seasoned player who is, at the very least, demonstrably competent ... even with some notable flaws). As others noted in response to your post, he often does this in the context of expectations from the recruiting cycle. I would also note he has some tendency to do this (in either + or - ways, from player to player) within season and season-to-season. It is noticable within UFRs, when he selectively highlights (positively or negatively) certain guys.
To be clear, I'm not saying it is impossible for Hill and/or Long to pass Stribling up next year. I'm saying that Brian has no rational basis for making that claim at this point, given what he described as the point of this exercise. His view on this one point is countervaling to both logic and data. When coupled with my observations of some of his tendencies over the years, I highlighted it as one example of how Brian sometimes allows his bias to influence his judgment.
2) going back to the first part of this post, I am pretty sure this was NOT a dumb place for my "tirade." It's exactly the place. Brian was laying out his view on specific guys' likelihood of STARTING. To your rhetorical questions about Harbaugh's grand sense of player development and future seasons, of course JH is smart enough to see the need in '17 and beyond. But that is NOT what Brian was getting at. Or, if it is the case that he did allow that consideration into his thinknig in the Strib vs Hill/Long instance in particular ... well, then Brian got himself derailed from his own mission, didn't he? And that would only further my point of his negative bias on Stribling influencing his subjective output around a set of objective facts.
Look, I recognize the entirety of my post is an in-the-weeds observation. And it is very much the gnat on the ass of the elephant. This blog (and this board) are spectacular elements of the overall 'M' sports community. That being said, I do think it's fair to have a discussion on "the little stuff." I'd be shocked if Brian disagrees with that view. And I'm not even making an entitled bellyache of "I want Brian to deliver me a better product" ... what I'm saying is that in his quest to be great (which he inherently does have, and it's observable in his passion and fire to do all things well on this site), he would futher his own cause with a little introspection on this point.
February 8th, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^
That line haunts me.
February 8th, 2016 at 3:35 PM ^
Not sure about that. Sometimes coaches develop blind spots as they have a ton of information between practices, film sessions, games, etc. and sometimes weight the information received differently than fans, who only see games, do. I think Sam Webb was discussing this when he talked about how Bolden was noted for making the right calls on the field.
It never seemed like Gedeon got enough run to get into any kind of rhythm the way Bolden did and I wonder if this may be down to a "blind spot".
I doubt he's going to be the next Urlacher, but I'm not entirely sure that is the data point that should cause the most worry.
February 8th, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^
O'Korn looks like Jim Carrey in that photo.
February 8th, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^
A few obersavtions...
I do not see anybody unseating Deveon Smith as the main running back, and the assumption that he will all of a sudden become a fullback is a bit of a stretch for me.
As much as it sucks, I honestly believe that 75% of the incoming recruiting class will not redshirt. These kids have to see some game action before they are heavily counted on in starting roles in 2017.
February 8th, 2016 at 6:00 PM ^
There's a lot of time between now and Fall camp in August, but if Mone keeps developing, I don't think it's out of the question to have a Wormley-Mone-Glasgow-Taco starting D-Line. I remember the 2014 Michigan State game where Glasgow really wore down and got pushed around against MSU's O-Line; obviously Glasgow took a leap this past year, but I was impressed with Mone's strength at the point of attack as a NT as a true freshman.
If Mone can keep improving, I think our best starting four on the D-Line would be Wormley-Mone-Glasgow-Taco, with Godin-Hurst-Gary-Marshall/Johnson/Gary as the second shift. I don't think Hurst is big enough to handle 3-Tech, as he's listed at around 282lbs on the roster, and would prefer to see Hurst stick as a 2nd-line NT where he can just abuse the OC with a quick first step. Late this year (if he's not redshirted) or next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlo Kemp start getting some run at SDE as well.
Either way, the D-Line is going to be the strength of the team this coming year. And tons of fun. Will be interesting to watch how the O-Line shakes out, really counting on Drevno to work his magic on a few guys.
February 8th, 2016 at 7:00 PM ^
February 8th, 2016 at 6:23 PM ^
February 8th, 2016 at 6:40 PM ^
I've read that Kemp is being asked to focus on MLB at the moment -- doesn't make a lot of sense to me given what I read about his recruiting measurables (already 6'3, 260), but in Donny Defense we trust. I feel like the boat's pretty full at LB at the moment, though it would be nice to have someone wrestle the titles of captain and first mate from the bunch. I didn't see Chris Evans either - have to think at least one of Evans, Mitchell and Hawkins gets moved to FS.
February 8th, 2016 at 7:03 PM ^
February 8th, 2016 at 7:38 PM ^
Yeah -- will be interesting to see how the redshirts get distributed this year. What did we add, 28 if you include Dy Johnson? Next year's class will be close in size as well (think 20-25). I think "Is OL, redshirt" still applies and I generally like the idea of having each QB recruit redshirt their first year on campus, but I think only a handful of schools like Alabama, LSU, FSU and Ohio State can really rely on star true freshmen to help propel a team to a championship (hello Derwin James - god almight he is good). USC can probably get back there, but they've been handicapped with a combination of bad coaching and scholarship restrictions the past few years. I don't know if we will ever get to that level under Harbaugh, as each of those teams has a combination of a recruiting advantage Michigan doesn't necessarily have (Michigan is solid, but not as talent rich of an area as Florida, Ohio or Louisiana), each of those teams have won championships and put hordes of guys in the NFL recently. IMO while it's important to hit that "Blue Chip" percentile that the guys at SB Nation talk about, having a large group of high 3*s who redshirt and develop seems like a key to recruiting strategy for us going forward...but therein is the problem, because we'll also be so inexperiences in 2017 on defense and at WR. I think burning RS will be less of an issue under Harbaugh than it was under Hoke, but there's definitely a benefit to having a guy like Ty Kinnel redshirt when he's at best fighting for 3rd spot on the depth chart at Safety, or 4th if you count Peppers there full time and ignore the nickel distinction.
February 8th, 2016 at 8:24 PM ^
February 9th, 2016 at 1:53 PM ^
like a rag doll?
https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CU8gURUXIAAFgO1.mp4
Note: I also realize that Michigan fans love playing the Gators.
February 8th, 2016 at 8:38 PM ^
February 9th, 2016 at 6:25 AM ^
February 8th, 2016 at 9:02 PM ^
February 9th, 2016 at 5:41 AM ^
February 9th, 2016 at 6:27 AM ^
February 9th, 2016 at 2:02 PM ^
This is an offseason looking forward to 70+ quality guys competing for snaps and playing for coaches we have every reason to believe really can develop players to their full potential. There will be bumps along the way I am sure, but this is getting fun!
Comments