John Beilein and his predecessors
We'll start off with Bill Frieder, then to Steve Fisher, then to Ellerbe*, and then to Amaker, and finally John Beilein.
Bill Frieder (1980-89): Overall career record at Michigan is 188-90, and a conference record of 102-64. His overall winning percentage is 0.676 and his conference winning % is 0.614. He won the Big Ten twice in his tenure, and never went farther than the Sweet 16 in the tournament. He was fired before the 1989 tournament run
Steve Fisher (1989-97): Overall career record at Michigan was 109-79 or a 0.580 winning percentage. His overall conference record while at Michigan was 79-47 or a 0.627 winning percentage. After the improbable tourney run in 1989, he never lead the Wolverines to another title, falling just short in 91-92 and 92-93. He brought in the Fab Five, and later sanctions were put on Michigan leaving the program dead in the water. He also never won a Big Ten regular season championship.
Brian Ellerbe* (1997-2001): Brian Ellerbe took over a Michigan program harmed by sanctions, and didn't heal any of the wounds. He went 28-32 overall as head coach, or a 0.466 winning percentage, and went 10-22 in conference play while coach of the Wolverines, or a 0.313 winning percentage in the conference. He made no NCAA Tournaments, and one NIT.
Tommy Amaker (2001-2007): Tommy Amaker went 108-84 in his overall record at Michigan or a 0.563 winning percentage. His conference record for the Wolverines was 43-53 or a winning percentage of 0.448. He never won a Big Ten Championship, never made the NCAA Tournament, made 3 NITs and won one NIT. He never was successful here, but now runs a good program at Harvard
John Beilein (2007-Present): John Beilein was hired in 2007 and had the task of turning around a dead Michigan basketball program. In his first season his team went 10-22. After the 10-22 season, they went 21-14 with a birth in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the year 1996. He went 15-17 in 09-10, but after the abysmal season in 09-10, he lead Michigan to 4 straight tournmanet appearances, which included a National Title appearance, and an elite eight. He has won 2 Big Ten regular season championships in his time here. He was the first coach since Steve Fisher to make 4+ straight NCAA Tournament appearances. He turned around a dead Michigan basketball program into a respectable national program. His overall record at Michigan is 168-110 or a 0.604 winning percentage. His conference record at Michigan is 78-66 or a winning percentage of 0.542. He has won 2 regular B1G championships in his time here.
Why are we so quick to jump on Beilein? Based on all these numbers, Beilein has a better winning percentage than all his predecessors except Frieder. He has performed better in the tournament in Frieder, though. Only Steve Fisher can claim one accomplishment over him, which is a national title, BUT he only coached the tournament, and not the whole season. Beilein is a great coach, and we should maybe give him another year or two of work, before really putting him on the hot seat. If Michigan jumps the gun and fires him too quick, Michigan could be headed back to another era of Ellerbe and Amaker.
*- I don't think it's totally fair to compare Ellerbe's numbers as he took over the team right after the Fab Five scandal, but over the course of his Michigan career his records never improved.
December 9th, 2015 at 11:32 PM ^
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December 10th, 2015 at 12:47 AM ^
December 10th, 2015 at 12:27 AM ^
Red has been here for more than 30 years. Respect.
December 9th, 2015 at 11:25 PM ^
People like you called for Bo's head when he went 8-4.
December 9th, 2015 at 11:27 PM ^
I think there is definite reason to be concerned. For the expectations I have (and I feel like the program should have), anything worse than a 7 seed is a bad season. By that measure, Beilein has had 3 good seasons and at Michigan and 5 bad seasons. Obviously he gets some leeway to start off his career here, but it looks like the program is regressing back to where Beilein had it prior to that 3 year stretch, and that that stretch may have just been a fluke. Obviously it's still a wait and see situation, but we are bad right now with very little reason to think the team will be better next year.
Very much reasonable to be alarmed.
December 9th, 2015 at 11:33 PM ^
Beilein is a victim of his own success. When he was hired our Supreme Leader himself thought we'd be pretty competitive year to year and make the occasional tournament run. Maybe those are the proper expectations we should have for the bball program.
December 9th, 2015 at 11:47 PM ^
December 9th, 2015 at 11:54 PM ^
because when it works its a thing of beauty to watch and tough as hell to beat
December 9th, 2015 at 11:57 PM ^
Said this in last night's thread that got deleted, but here it goes again.
Michigan is on a 2nd tier of schools in basketball which runs the gamut from Syracuse and Villanova to Utah and NC State based on historical regular season and tournament performance. Other B1G teams on this level are Michigan St., Ohio St., Illinois, and Wisconsin (Indiana is a step above given their historical pedigree).
The fact that Beilein could miss the tournament for the 4th time in 9 years puts him below people like Rick Barnes (who missed the tourney once in 16 years) and he's getting into Bruce Weber territory (missed it 3 times in 9 years). Oh, Weber was fired after missing the tourney 3 times in his last 5 years. He also made a Sweet 16 and lost the Nat'l Championship game.
It's not about comparing Beilein to other Michigan coaches, but other B1G coaches.
Izzo has made the tourney for two straight decades. Multiple Final Fours.
Matta has missed it twice in his tenure. Also lost a Nat'l Champ Game.
Maryland is on the rise under Turgeon and was basically a Preseason #1, but who knows how they end up.
Crean is struggling at traditional power Indiana and may get fired if they have a down year again.
Rutgers is Rutgers. Penn State is Penn State
Ryan hasn't missed the tourney in 10 years and just made the Nat'l Champ Game.
Matt Painter has taken Purdue to the tourney in 7 of the last 10 years, though usually as a lower-ish seed.
Richard Pitino/Tubby Smith and Fran McCaffrey have made sproadic tournament appearances over the past 10 years.
John Groce might be in over his head at Illinois.
Nebrasketball was fun for that one season.
Northwestern is the sad face emoji.
Michigan basketball is below Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State and a notch above Purdue in the pecking order.
That success is largely based on the Burke/Stauskas teams. If Beilein misses the tournament this year AND next year, you have to consider moving on to somebody else.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:30 AM ^
Beilein is easily the best coach Michigan has had since Orr and probably the best coach Michigan has ever had.
Frieder was a good coach and so is Fisher (despite the controversy).
Ellerbe was probably the worst basketball coach to ever coach in Division I. Michigan did have sanctions but his horrible coaching, not the sanctions, held them back. It was painful to watch. I'm still puzzled by his hire.
Amaker was an improvement but he wasn't a good coach here. He brought in elite talent which seriously underperformed. I think he's a better coach now than he was at Michigan.
So.... while Beilein has his flaws (notably recruiting/coaching front court players), he has pnenomenal strengths (identifying underrecruited talent, coaching fundamentals/shooting, offensive genius) That's why we made a Final Four run and nearly repeated even without our star player.
I'm happy to have Beilein as our coach for as long as he wants to coach. It is likely that we will make more Final Four runs if just one or two of his big men are adequate.
December 10th, 2015 at 11:05 AM ^
...is enough for us to make a Final Four run, then you definitely have not been watching Michigan basketball
December 10th, 2015 at 12:42 AM ^
December 10th, 2015 at 8:06 AM ^
The fact of the matter is that many people want this team to be in the top 25, to be a regular NCAA tourney team, and to have at least a shot at the B1G most years.
Isn't that exactly what Beilein has given us? We've either won the B1G or been there at the last game 3 of the last 4 years (and an NCAA runner up was a nice consolation prize one of the years we didn't win it), made 5 of the last 7 tourneys, and been in the top 25 for huge stretches of that period.
December 10th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
I can't seem to find it on the board, but I think someone stated that JB teams have been in the top 25 for about 15% of the time. Note: this includes all of his years. If you want to include those good years to which you are referring, then I would say we are around 55%-65% (just an estimate). I don't know if this is good or not.
I think you are using some selection bias, but that's OK. JB hasn't EXACTLY delivered what the OP mentioned.
December 10th, 2015 at 11:44 AM ^
Fair. Doing a quick wiki scan, looks like we were ranked all of 2011-12, all of 12-13, and half of 13-14. So, 2.5 seasons out of 9 is about 25% of the time, plus bits and pieces here and there.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:48 AM ^
December 10th, 2015 at 12:52 AM ^
Your descriptions of each coach are very misleading and one-sided.
You say that Frieder won the B1G twice but never advanced past the Sweet 16. That's true but you don't mention that he made the NCAAs five straight years, won an NIT title (not that it matters a whole lot but it is worth pointing out considering Michigan's overall lack of basketball success), and only twice in his 9 year career did he not make the postseason.
Fisher's record at Michigan was 184-82 overall and 88-56 in the B1G. You can't simply ignore vacated wins. He coached the team to those wins. They happened. You also flippantly disregard his National Championship, (you know the only one in school history?) and the fact that he brought Michigan to 3 NC games in 5 years and made three straight Elite 8 appearances. He also made five straight NCAAs. Fisher never won a B1G title but I think his NC game appearances and deep runs into the tournament absolve him. You also fail to mention that Fisher never missed the postseason. He also won the NIT. I also think it's rather dubious to say that he left Michigan's program dead in the water. The NCAA sanctions should never have set Michigan that far back. It was Michigan that let its facilities languish for years after the Fab Five and Michigan that hired Ellerbe and then Amaker, compounding the problem.
As far as Ellerbe goes, you left out that he made the NCAA tournament his first season with Tractor Traylor (RIP) and Co. He also won the B1G tournament that season, the only time it has been done in school history. It was all downhill after that. His actual career record is 62-60 overall, 26-38 in the B1G. Not that anyone cares.
Amaker never made the NCAAs, although he would have made it in 2002-2003 but Michigan was inelgible for the postseason. He never won a B1G title. He won the NIT and lost in the NIT final. He missed the postseason twice in 6 years.
In 8 years Beilein has two B1G titles, an NC game appearance, back to back Elite 8 runs, and four straight NCAA appearances. He has also missed the postseason three times.
I think it's clear that Beilein is a much better coach than Ellerbe and Amaker. It is is less clear that he's better than Frieder and Fisher. Freider has the same number of B1G titles and only missed the postseason twice compared to Beiein (three times). Fisher doesn't have Beilein's B1G titles but he has three NC game appearances and an NC title, which trumps Beilein's one NC game. Beilein will probably overtake them both in wins this season and next season, but he's already got more losses than both of them in just 8+ years. Both Frieder and FIsher coached for 9 years.
December 10th, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
Bill Freider recruited great players, and his teams were fun to watch, but I'm not sure how you can rank him over Beilein.
When Frieder came in, Michigan had made the National Championship game 5 years before and the elite 8 four years prior under Orr. While Orr's last couple of years were not as good, the program was still in decent shape.
Beilein came into a program that hadn't made the tournament in a decade. While Amaker was an improvement over Ellerbe we had no one in the NBA other than Crawford who barely played here and were far from elite.
Finally, I think that tournament success is what most people focus on in college basketball. Frieder only made it out of the 2nd round once, whereas Beilein has a NC game and elite 8 appearance to his credit.
My point isn't that Frieder wasn't a good coach, but just to say that I'd take Beilein over him.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:55 AM ^
Comparing overall records/conference records/big ten championships to other coaches is not really the best measuring stick to compare coaches. This is because the success of a team is largely based on how well you do in the NCAA tournament. And I think Frieder and Fisher (and possible others before that) were better than JB in this category.
Also, I find that you can put our basketball fans into 2 buckets (pun intended):
1. Youger folks that lived through the rough Ellerbe and Amaker years. These folks likely compare JB's accomplishments against those of Ellerbe and Amaker and say, "we were a crap program, and JB got us made us respectable, therefore he is above being questioned no matter what". These folks more or less tolerate being a middle of the road big ten team
2. Older folks (like myself) that have seen the swagger, skill and athleticism of those teams in the 80s/early 90s and the resulting success in the NCAA tournament. These people see potential for this program that has remained dormant for many years. A potential to be elite. Henceforth, we may not be as tolerant of JB's inconsistency and may be more skeptical of him (but still respect him and are glad he is our coach). Its hard for us to tolerate being a middle of the road big ten team.
December 10th, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^
Are you really trying to say Frieder was better than Beilein in the NCAA Tournament? Frieder was TERRIBLE in the tournament. He took highly seeded teams in and repeatedly choked. No way do we win the title in '89 if Frieder is still coaching.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
JB has more trouble getting to the post-season/NCAA tourney than Frieder. (honestly, I haven't looked up the stats, just going off memory). Perhaps JB had a couple good runs in the NCAA tournament, but to be honest, its hard to be confident he will even make it into the tournament.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:56 AM ^
A quick quiz. Here are a couple historical key stats from a few basketball programs at the start of the season in 1991. Can you guess who is who?
Team A. 15 tourament appearances. 9 final fours. One championship.
Team B. 14 tournament appearances. 4 final fours. One championship.
Team C. 8 tournament appearances. 2 finals fours. One championship.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:04 AM ^
Team A is Duke I think.
Team B is Michigan
Team C is State
And that's kind of the point I was trying to make above. Michigan is not Indiana football or Northwestern basketball. They had success in the 60s and 70s and 80s and the early 90s.
Missing the NCAA Tournament 5 times in 9 years should not be the standard for the program.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:28 AM ^
You are correct! And I agree with the point you made.
As you can see, there was a time when there wasn't much difference between those 3 programs. However, the trajectory after that 1991 season couldn't have been more different for Michigan when compared to Duke and MSU. I think this bifurcation was driven by one main factor: the coach. Duke/MSU hire a young bright open-minded coach with good recruiting skils who will stay with a program for MANY years and build/protect a successful program foundation. Michigan did not get such coach, and they languished for ~15 years (while I agree the sanctions should account for some impact, it didn't need to be as extensive).
My overall point is that we can be much better than what we we are, potentially elite. I can see the makings of it, we just need a coach who can get us there. Unfortunately, JB is not it. He served a purpose - to continue our ascent out of the dregs of basketball programs - and he did this well. But he won't make us elite. I don't want him fired by any means, but regardless of how this year goes, I think we has going to retire anyway in 3 years. I think we can start succession planning now. Spend some big money on third-parties/research committees to find that next K/Izzo. Time is on our side now, so don't wait until its too late.
December 10th, 2015 at 7:56 AM ^
But all this really implies is that Beilein is not as good as Coach K and Izzo. Duke and MSU got incredibly, incredibly lucky to get those guys. The other 19 times out of 20, you don't end up with that. That's why you don't wish away a coach in the 90th percentile hoping you get the one in the 99th.
I agree with you that when Beilein retires, we should put every resource into trying to get the best guy possible, but every school is also trying to do that. When you're not a blueblood power, you have to do your best and hope to get lucky, which is why you have to enjoy the times when you're well above average but not top 5, which is the phase we're in right now with Beilein. You may hit some stretches better than that, but most are going to be worse.
December 10th, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
See the post from smwilliams above. It can be suggested that JB is a middle of the road big ten coach - so he wouldn't even be 90th percentile in the big ten. And I don't know if you can really call us above average per your last paragraph.
December 10th, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^
Why did you start your timeframe in 1991? That's the year we signed the Fab Five. Obviously we were quite good the next few years. I would start it in 1995, the year MSU promoted Izzo.
We should note, incidentally, that Izzo is much better than his predecessor, Heathcoate. Heathcoate was a career .600 coach who had the MSU job for life because of two good seasons with Magic Johnson. That his assistant would turn into a monster was a pretty lucky break for Sparty.
As for Duke, they hired Coach K in 1980. They've had no coaching decisions to make since.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
But doing so would make Duke look much better than us, and MSU much worse than us.
My objective is that we were (at one point) all pretty similar in terms of accomplishments and history. They became elite, we became a middle of the road big ten team. I ask why can't we be better? Why can't we be elite. I know it takes a lot of factors to become elite, but I still don't see why we can't be. It seems that a lot of people on this board are fine consistently being second fiddle to MSU. Even with the performance over the past 10 years, we still hold a lead in overall record against them. We can be a better program than them, we just don't commit to it since our expectations are so low.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:46 AM ^
December 10th, 2015 at 2:34 AM ^
December 10th, 2015 at 5:18 AM ^
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December 10th, 2015 at 2:57 AM ^
When you win they love you. When you lose they break out the pitch forks. That is true of just about anywhere that there is sports being played.
December 10th, 2015 at 7:17 AM ^
Coach B is a great guy and a smart coach with X's and O's.
However, coaching isn't all X's and O's - it's getting your guys to play with fire too. Look at Izzo; I would say strategically he isn't the best, but year in, year out, gets his guys to play hard and with passion, especially on defense.
We are in an era of pretty good basketball, but it is not elite, and unless something changes with recruiting, it probably won't be.
The next hire will be interesting, when it happens in a few years.
December 10th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^
It's cool we're all alarmed at how the season's started, I like that we expect more now. Michigan basketball was the shit when I was younger. We owned the state. UofM was a premiere program from the mid-late 80's through the mid-late 90's. Tournament every year, a shot to win it all every year. Then we sucked for 12 years. Not like average program suck, SUCK sucked. Beilein comes in and takes a few years, but shows us what his system can do when the right players have the right chemistry.
Our two main problems on offense this year are: 1) we need a lead dog, a guy help defenders must respect no matter if the ball's in his hands or not. 2) no one respects our bigs. The fives don't have to do anything more on the offensive end than set picks, roll to the basket, catch the ball and put it in. Maybe handle the occasional entry pass to keep defenders honest. If Doyle/Donnal/Wilson/Wagner/whoever can combine to give us 10 points and 10 rebounds a game, that opens up the perimeter guys. As it is now, teams just play up on our guards and wings and pay no attention to the bigs.
The bigger concerns are our post defense and defensive rebounding. Our post guys just aren't in love with the physicality other teams' bigs bring and it shows. We're a finesse team, which is fine when you execute, but we look bad when that's not the case.
This is the kind of team Beilein can make better by the end of the season. Get Walton and Spike, guys who can distribute and run the offense, healthy and in shape and find a center rotation that is equal to what Horford and Morgan did a couple years ago (10 pts, 9 rebs combined, solid post defense) and they can be dangerous.
December 10th, 2015 at 11:01 AM ^
...the 2-year contract extension (through 2020-21) he received last month. Bad timing.
I really like Beilein and the players he recruits seem to be quality individuals, but I don't think he earned that extension. Nor was it necessary. Beilein is 62 and he's not going anywhere else.
I'm fine with bonuses for Beilein and his staff based on current performance. The year they had in 2014-2015 did not warrant a bonus nor a contract extension, IMO. That's a mistake and it's on our AD, not Beilein.
December 10th, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^
I don't know why there is so much griping about this. If you're planning on keeping your coach, he has to have a long contract for recruiting purposes. You're never going to actually let your coach get close to the end of his contract unless he's an interim type that you aren't planning on keeping.
If for whatever reason we decide to let Beilein go, that extension won't be an obstacle.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
..need to have a 6-year long contract for recruiting purposes, especially at his age. A 3-year long contract should be plenty. 2016 recruits could care less about Beilein being the coach in 2020.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
...about a long-term contract being needed for recruiting. If Beilein can be bought out anytime, then a long-term contract is pretty meaningless, isn't it?
If someone put together a list of what's important to a BB recruit, I'd bet the HC having a 6-year long contract is at or near the bottom, if it's even mentioned at all.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:04 PM ^
Beilein is awesome on and off the court but if folks want to replace him, who could do a better job? The teams that have performed better than Michigan the past few years are Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, Kansas, Michigan State and maybe Florida and you could maybe throw in Ohio State.
Well we are not getting Duke's coach; The guy running Kentucky's program has brought sanctions everywhere he's been; Louisville has been run by guy whose assistants have encouraged academic fraud and recruiting with hookers and strippers; Kansas has been a consistent disappointment in the NCAA tournament and we beat them on our best tournament run; we are not getting Michigan State's coach; Ohio State's and Florida's programs have been on par with ours.
We've gone from a fan base excited to make the tournament to thinking the sky is falling after a couple losses. BUT it's the way we lose?? Come on, a win is a win, a loss is a loss.
Also, I don't want our program to become some sketch factory run by a used car saleman like John Cap or Rick P.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^
Coaches with Top 21 Kenpom ADJ D currently:
1. Oklahoma (Lon Kruger)
2. Purdue (Matt Painter)
3. Florida (Billy Donovan)
4. Virginia (Tony Bennett)
5. Villanova (Jay Wright)
6. Valparaiso (Bryce Drew)
7. West Virginia (Bob Huggins)
8. Louisville (Rick Pitino)
9. Kansas (Bill Self)
10. Arizona (Sean Miller)
11. Gonzaga (Mark Few)
12. Kentucky (John Callipari)
13. San Diego St. (Steve Fisher)
14. Xavier (Chris Mack)
15. Cincinnati (Mick Cronin)
16. Iowa State (Steve Prohm)
17. MSU (Tom Izzo)
18. Rhode Island (Dan Hurley)
19. UNC (Roy Williams)
20. Vanderbilt (Kevin Stallings)
21. UConn (Kevin Ollie)
It's not a coincidence that the majority of these teams are solid every year. Defense wins championships. It's consistent. When our shots don't fall we are garbage.
Clearly most of these coaches are unavailable but I bolded some names - why wouldn't we make a run at guys like this? We need to find a coach who preaches D if we want to win it all. Case closed.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:55 PM ^
Preach, brother.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
You are selecting only a small smaple size. For this assessment to be accurate you need to a larger sample size.
"The teams that have performed better than Michigan the past few years are Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, Kansas, Michigan State and maybe Florida and you could maybe throw in Ohio State"
Based on what criteria? There are probably at least 10 (maybe 20) other schools that have performed better than us over the past 3 years (Wisconsin, UConn, etc.). Remember, we didn't even make the NIT last year (and that's bad). Also, after this year, that list of schools will go up significantly.
"Come on, a win is a win, a loss is a loss."
Not in the eyes of the selection committee. Style points (or lack thereof) are important to the committee, and especially more so if we are on the bubble.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^