SEARCHBITS XVIII: DUNT DUNT
I guess this one is only mildly entertaining
MORE INSANELY POSITIVE CHATTER FROM THE MICHIGAN SIDE OF THINGS. WTKA's Ira Weintraub:
Yesterday I was 60-40 that Harbaugh was coming to A2. After talking to sources, I was told to move that to 90-10! Too big of a jump but ...
— The Michigan Insider (@michiganinsider) December 17, 2014
... My optimism is rising. Not willing to jump to 90-10 but definitely getting more optimistic.
— The Michigan Insider (@michiganinsider) December 17, 2014
More people in my inbox saying it's all but done, GFunk popping up on Rivals to say the same, etc. It seems like just about everyone in the Michigan community who knows someone or talks to someone or talks to someone who talks to someone is increasingly certain that it's happening.
Money's getting thrown around. Sam had an unconfirmed report of a 49 million dollar offer and an "eight year plan"; the telephone game reached a reporter in Arizona citing a nutty six year, $49 million dollar contract.
Michigan thinks this is happening much harder than I've ever seen any insider community think anything is happening.
CUE JAWS MUSIC THOUGH. Optimistic thoughts about a relatively small number of attractive NFL jobs coming open this offseason should be shelved. The Dolphins aren't heading for the playoffs, which could be it for Joe Philbin. The Bears may actually fire Mark Trestman after just two years. (FWIW, that report comes from a radio guy it seems and no one else has confirmed it—would not take it as gospel.) Sam asserts that the Raiders and possibly the Dolphins are considering coming in with full-control offers.
Those could change the situation rapidly, and that's why I remain hesitant to go all in on it's happening dot gif. Until NFL teams figure out what they're doing and Harbaugh knows what's on the table I'm wary.
This isn't about "flakiness," which every Michigan reporter will reference in the downer section of their post. (I am just as guilty of this as everyone else.) It's about a major change in available information to Harbaugh changing what he wants to do. If this does go sour I guarantee some guys who got burned will blame Harbaugh in order to deflect heat. It happened last time; it'll happen this time.
SO THEN: PLAN B. If things go sour with Harbaugh, what then? Nobody knows. Paysites have all but ceased mentioning anything about other candidates in this feeding-frenzy phase, and when they do the names they mention are far from sure things. One guy who is still looking at other guys is 24/7's Clint Brewster, who has a source saying that it'll come down to Harbaugh and Dan Mullen, albeit after Michigan takes swings at David Shaw and Jim Mora without success.
Brewster's sources are of the agent/coach variety and are thus more speculative than indirect chatter from inside the department… but there isn't any of that. That note feels more like a logical conclusion from available facts than anything truly insider.
I will say that I've heard a couple things indicating that the Plan B names we've heard so far are almost all bunk… and that Mullen is not a candidate either.
Plan B right now: no idea. Which is scary.
ACT LIKE A CLOWN, GET TREATED LIKE A CLOWN. Tim Kawakami samples from the Lochmann school of PR:
@jonathanchait I could care less.
— Tim Kawakami (@timkawakami) December 16, 2014
Kawakami's had some interesting, blunt stuff on the 49ers situation, but that's not a good look. He started getting some heat on twitter after his latest column explaining the reasons a Raiders move "actually might be the most reasonable" option for Harbaugh, and I get why. That column comes off like bloviation, and people don't care what journalist X thinks, they want to know what the people actually involved think. A follow up to get background is natural; for it to get shut down is indicative that the guy 1) doesn't have anything concrete and 2) is insecure about it.
There is a certain genre of journalist who gets ruffled by the dim bulbs on twitter, treats reasonable people like crap, and wonders why nobody likes him. I don't get it, man.
DO IT, DO IT. Paul Chryst to Wisconsin is going to be official at 7 Eastern, so the Panthers are about to be in the market for a head guy. How could that impact the Michigan search? By taking a bullet for us:
#Pitt has had contact with Greg Schiano regarding its soon-to-be-vacant head coaching job, source tells the Post-Gazette.
— Sam Werner (@SWernerPG) December 17, 2014
Don't mind if you do. Sorry about this, Spilly.
NO I WILL NOT LET THIS GO. Tom Herman's deal is a little over one million per year. Break glass in case of emergency—it ain't that thick.
ETC.: I feel better about saying that Michigan "couldn't get it up on the road" earlier this year now that today's Michigan Insider turned into a four-hour discussion of jimmy hats. Fox rounds up the rumors. Yeah man just go to Michigan.
Gary Patterson signs an extension, not that he was likely to move in any case. Jane's emotional rollercoaster is a lot like yours.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^
December 17th, 2014 at 2:19 PM ^
The reason there is no plan B is because Plan A is a done deal baring Jim has a change of heart in the 11th hour. Hackett isnt a dummy and I believe even if Jim said wait till after the season to begin potential talks Hackett would have pulled the trigger on plan B, He hasnt because he hasnt had to. Its simply just a waiting game like signing day with a top notch guy who is coveted by almost everyone. You simply have to wait until he signs but verbally he is yours.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:29 PM ^
peoples court?
December 17th, 2014 at 2:32 PM ^
Judge Judy!
December 17th, 2014 at 2:51 PM ^
Jack Harbaugh looks just like Leo McGarry. I'm waiting for him to hold up a "Harbaugh for Michigan" napkin.
December 17th, 2014 at 3:10 PM ^
How did I not notice that?
December 17th, 2014 at 3:14 PM ^
for any West Wing reference.
I noticed it too.
December 17th, 2014 at 5:59 PM ^
what this is and what it is from?
December 17th, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^
I like what you're pushing. How can I subscribe to your newsletter?
December 17th, 2014 at 2:38 PM ^
but his eloquent yet decisive terminations of Hoke and Lochmann have me fairly convinced that he really does know what he's doing. I'm tempted to start drinking the koolaid
December 17th, 2014 at 2:15 PM ^
December 17th, 2014 at 2:19 PM ^
... can we change the site tag line to, ""I do not care who kills who now." It's a JH quote, and I think accurately describes... everything at this point.
Full quote, ""My opponent is going to have to die. But does he have to kill me too? He is killing me. But he has a right to. I have never seen a greater opponent than him. I do not care who kills who now."
December 17th, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^
I like "My opponent is going to have to die." Maybe we change it to that right before the MSU game.
December 17th, 2014 at 4:12 PM ^
Love this
December 17th, 2014 at 2:20 PM ^
December 17th, 2014 at 2:23 PM ^
Ya, I like to see some black feathers hanging out of Golic and Greene's pie holes.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:24 PM ^
Double post
December 17th, 2014 at 2:22 PM ^
IT ARE HAPPENING?
December 17th, 2014 at 2:22 PM ^
Maybe Pitt will hire Schiano and then let Spilly come out of kitchen/blender retirement to cook the welcome meal, after which they will hire someone else as coach.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:26 PM ^
Wow, this Kawakami guys really presents himself like a piece of shit.
December 17th, 2014 at 6:03 PM ^
Dude comes off as a total toolbag. As do most individuals who get involved in foolish twitter exchanges.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:26 PM ^
If it's not done by now, it means he's waiting to see what his NFL options will be ... which means we probably won't get him. Someone in the NFL will offer him a better deal than Michigan. He'll be number one on the list for the Jets, Raiders, Dolphins, and Bears and probably other teams too.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
December 17th, 2014 at 2:31 PM ^
I don't think there's much reason to believe that Michigan doesn't have a backup plan. Just that the backup plan isn't known to us.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:50 PM ^
Hackett has swim lane charts. He has a back up plan.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^
Because the best way of conducting business is to tell everyone what your #2 plan is in case your #1 plan doesn't work...right?
That's how you stay ahead of the game.
December 17th, 2014 at 3:12 PM ^
Publicly, obviously not. But Michigan's AD isn't the Fort visage it tries to maintain; clearly there are people willing to talk about what they hear. We've seen that for years now. And based on all of the rumors and leaks, it doesn't sound like there is a clear backup following Harbaugh. I'm sure there will be one, but in 2007 it was basically Miles and then we'll see what happens. And in 2011 it was Hoke because Brandon had a limited pool and seemingly exhausted his other options rather quickly. So no, in a normal organization I'd totally believe that Michigan is putting up the smokescreen while they compile a list, but nothing in the past half-decade gives me any confidence that is the case. I'm sure they'll spackle over the cracks if Harbaugh gives them a pass, but I'm not sold that this isn't a bit of a circus right now.
December 17th, 2014 at 5:10 PM ^
Why are you so sure that the "retrograde thinking and lack of planning" of past recent coaching searches applies in this case as well, especially considering how different it has been so far from anything in the past? Hackett is leading this search in a way I have never seen before. His openness in his press conference was a signal to me that things are different this time. I don't know...maybe I'm just being optimistic. I somehow doubt he wouldn't have a clear backup plan in the event they don't get Harbaugh.
December 17th, 2014 at 6:17 PM ^
I guess I'm just overly pessimistic. This here blog thought Dave Brandon had a pimp hand after his first couple press conferences, and we all know how that played out.
I just worry that there are voices beyond Hackett's that are still calling for a certain type of candidate that basically begins and ends with Harbaugh. I think people believe when I say that they don't have a backup plan that they don't have a person - I'm sure they do have a person they'd settle on and they pretty much know they'll get. But what has submarined Michigan the past 2 coaches has as much to do with on-field performance as it has been the culture/machinations that occur in the athletic department. And that's why I worry.
December 17th, 2014 at 3:07 PM ^
Raiders play a Russian team, and it's "lights out" for Carl.
December 17th, 2014 at 6:04 PM ^
He's going to be in the Bluth movie.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:28 PM ^
On a serious note - geez if any 3 worst franchises to have openings as real competition than the ones looking like they will open this year, I can't think of the 3:
- Oakland for location
- Chicago for his heart
- Miami for Ross (yes I know Ross is a UM guy too, but still that connection is there)
Of ALL the NFL franchises these 3 potentially losing their coaches make for the worst 3. If this year had been Tennessee, Houston, and Arizona for example - who cares.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:38 PM ^
Wouldn't Ross be severing a ton (maybe all) of his ties to Michigan by going after Harbaugh? Would he do it? Honest question. I guess we'll find out.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:51 PM ^
No, you dont sever ties with a guy who just have you $200M.
Other than an elite group of people who interacts with Ross in any way? Not the general fanbase. He would get yelled at by the sports fans on blogs and go on his merry way to his next month in the south of Franche on his yacht to monitor the yelling via internet. Again he gave $200M - that buys you a lot of brownie points. The university as a whole is a lot more than the athletic program. We fans look at it with a much more athletic focus.
Ross is still a businessman and the Miami franchise is worth $1.1B. I don't think this is what would happen but to make it a 1% chance is dismissive IMO. His QB is also the type of young and promising guy who Harbaugh could do a lot with and the Miami Dolphins defense of today reminds me a lot of the San Fran one of 4 years ago. It would be (to me) anyhow the most promising team he could take over in the NFL of the ones who may lose their coach.
December 17th, 2014 at 3:42 PM ^
Yeah, B-school people would obviously still be with him.
But I don't know, man. This isn't just some other hire. Ross is Judas to everyone outside of the business school if he poaches Harbaugh. Maybe it'll never affect his finances, and maybe that's all he cares about. But you don't donate that kind of money to an institution unless you love it in very personal terms.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:41 PM ^
Chicago, has to deal with GB in division. But, he did play there.
Miami or jets, New England is clear leader, does this matter?
Michigan, OSU and/or Sparty are ahead of us as of today, but this seems like perhaps the quickest way to break through to top given resources and support/history.
Not sure what any of this means if much at all to JH but worth debating perhaps in his mind.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:59 PM ^
Again these are open questions of what he wants to do with his life. I think more than any specific NFL franchise question.
Jim knows he can be successful for a short period of time (maybe 3 years) in the NFL before he wears out of his welcome again. He is basically a Doug Collins type who burns so bright, pro players can only take it so long.
So its a question of ego on the NFL side. Is he so stubborn he thinks it can work - I mean he did go to 3 straight NFC championship games. So the ego we love can be a pro or con, depending on how you want to spin it. Michigan v NFL is a lifestyle choice at this point - what does he want to do the next 6-8 years with his life.
The only reason I bring up Miami as most attractive is it has almost the exact same profile a the 49ers had 4 years ago. A very good D, a young QB who seems promising but still raw, and yes the Patriots are there but you dont need to win the East to get into the playoffs. Once you get in anything can happen as we've seen some #5 #6 seeds win the SB. Miami has a good enough D that if he can get the QB to elevate its play in a Harbaugh way they can be serious players. They are not that far off this year. Might go 9-7. (Vikings and Jets last 2 games)
Anyhow my larger hope is his dismay for the situation at UM and his dad's urgings - plus the orchestra of outpouring from alumni and his former teammates - take away any cold calculating logic and makes the decision easy to come back home.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^
I think it will be the evening of 12/28 and possibly as late as 12/30. If this drama goes into January, I will be less confident that Jim will head for Michigan and that he will be looking for a good trade to send him to Miami or Oakland. These are the only two NFL teams I think Jim would consider.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:31 PM ^
I'd rather Pitt get Narduzzi than Schiano. Schiano does not at all seem like a serious candidate for UM unless we are on plan Z. Narduzzi I am in favor not that MSU will miss Narrrduzzi so much but if he takes a few staff from MSU to be his DC and another coach there at least ruins their staff continuity which has been in near lockdown for 7 years on the defensive side of the ball (only exception is they flipped DL coaches when they were not happy with performance). Wouldnt mind seeing Narduzzi take Tressel as his DC to Pitt and then Dantonio actually having to spend some time to find new people he is less familiar with.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^
I have a new theory on Miles and his off the record denial. Perhaps Les Miles has a backroom deal with Hackett but wants to coach the bowl. He recalls 2007 when Kirk Herbstreit outed him, which prompted the LSU AD to throw a contract extension at Les. At that point, he couldn't say no, because that would mean he'd have to leave before the NC and also, contract extension $$$. Here he is in 2014 with a potential Michigan offer under the table. If he's faced with another extension or more money, he'll have to say no if he really wants the Michigan job. That will put his intentions out there before a formal offer is made, thus he wants all the talk to stop so the LSU AD is convinced he wants to stay at LSU.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:40 PM ^
Here's mine:
Miles is the actual fallback plan. He knows that and he's okay with it, partly because Hackett is being honest with him (and partly because of course he's a backup plan to Harbaugh). Hackett told him that things with Harbaugh look promising. Miles knew he'd be asked about at his press conference and didn't want to get hammered by follow-up questions... on camera... so he issued a firm-seeming "not happening" that no one will ever see.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:46 PM ^
I'm with this school of thought as well.
December 17th, 2014 at 2:58 PM ^
...and I'd add what someone else said in another post, can't remember who...but, Miles as the back up hasn't been announced yet because Hackett hasn't been forced to do so. JH is still in play, so no need to annoy LSU or the LSU fanbase until he pulls the trigger with Miles.
Edit: But I tell you one thing, I think JUB could have another best-seller on his hands with all the "this is what really went down in the great Michigan coaching search of 2014" once this is all over.
December 17th, 2014 at 3:08 PM ^
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