Preview: Ohio State 2013
Essentials
WHAT | Michigan vs Ohio State |
---|---|
WHERE | Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI |
WHEN | Noon Eastern November 30th, 2013 |
THE LINE | Ohio State -17 |
TELEVISION | ABC |
WEATHER | partly cloudy, mid-30s 0% chance of rain 10 mph winds |
Overview
Run Offense vs Ohio State
Ryan Shazier got better.
The Northwestern blip was just that: a blip, as Michigan's offense retreated back into its shell against Iowa. Thanks to buckets of Iowa turnovers this staked Michigan to a lead until late, but this was back to the pain factory. It was probably worse than usual, actually, as Gardner only suffered one sack. Take that out and Michigan rushed for 74 yards on 28 carries, a thrilling 2.6 yards an attempt.
This is still forward, I guess, and therefore represents progress. The kind of progress last experienced in the Dark Ages, but progress nonetheless.
This is too depressing to contemplate for very long. Michigan again went with a bunch of inside zone, whereupon Iowa linebackers fired into the gaps over and over again like Notre Dame did. Michigan has no idea how to deal with that other than "execute better"; they have no way to back those guys off; they have a bunch of play action on which the fact that the linebackers run literally to the line of scrimmage before going "oh" and backing into short zones is okay for the defense.
The unit they're going up against is not quite a vintage OSU outfit; it is still plenty good enough to see Michigan to another grunting performance under 100 net yards. Once you remove sacks, Ohio State's run offense is in a tier below Michigan State's face-crushing unit with Wisconsin and Michigan; they're giving up just under 4 yards a carry.
The existence of a healthy, clueful Ryan Shazier is particularly bad for Michigan. Two years ago he was a limping freshman who showed up in the hole against Denard Robinson and ended up left in the dust. This year he's nearing OSU records for TFLs against the worst team in the country at giving them up. His strengths—slashing into the backfield as soon as he reads run foremost amongst them—line up perfectly with Michigan's weaknesses.
The line is a slightly better matchup than it was last year with Jonathan Hankins in the NFL. They have not replaced him with a similar space-eater. Michael Bennett, their best DT, is 285. Unfortunately, he's a Jibreel Black++ type player with 10 TFLs and 5.5 sacks to his name. But that's another depressing section. Against the run he will be more moveable. Not that it's going to matter.
Key Matchup: Denard Robinson versus NCAA Eligibility Rules
[Hit THE JUMP for just don't hit the jump]
Pass Offense vs Ohio State
Hide yo kids, hide yo quarterback. The aforementioned Bennett is a problem against the weak interior of Michigan's line. Weak. I need a new word here that means WEAAAAAAAK; it doesn't appear one is coming.
Ohio State's acquired 36 sacks this year from a variety of organic and blitzing sources. Bennett has his; sophomore Noah Spence has 7.5; freshman Joey Bosa has 5. Various other linemen suck up almost all of the rest, leaving just Shazier's 5.5 and Curtis Grant's 2.5. OSU will send the occasional linebacker but is mostly content to drop back in coverage and see if one of their three effective rushers can get to the passer.
That is a terrible omen for Michigan. OSU will probably fling Shazier at Gardner and drop six plenty, which gives them 3 or 4 plausible avenues to Gardner on any given play. Iowa's single sack comes after Michigan giving up 19 in three weeks and is not likely to last.
When not getting buried under a wall of meat, Gardner will try to hit Gallon and Funchess, and basically only Gallon and Funchess. This will probably not go that well as OSU drops into the routes Michigan can run, which are few, and Gardner makes the kind of decisions you make when you are expecting a 300-pound ferret to burst into your chest at any moment.
Key matchup: Devin Gardner's Sternum versus Shattering Into A Thousand Pieces
Run Defense vs Ohio State
best case scenario
Foremost amongst the thousand depressing things about this game is Ohio State's superlative ability to manball its opponents. 242 pound Carlos Hyde has been tackled for loss this year.
Once.
Hyde is averaging 7.7 yards a carry despite not playing in OSU's first three walkovers and getting just five carries in OSU's equivalent of the Delaware State game, a grisly 76-0 beating of Florida A&M. He's done this without many distorting long runs. He had a 55 yarder against Illinois, but it's not like his stats are a Carlos Brown combination of 80 yarders and nothing.
But you knew that already. The #1 thing on Chris Borland's All-America highlight is a goal line stick of Hyde that anyone who saw live had a internal monologue that went "touchdown… OHHHHH NO WAY," because people do not stick Carlos Hyde. It just does not happen. They hit him and at best Hyde slides off to the side with his legs churning and picks up 2 YAC. Combine that with Braxton Miller and an offense that will happily screen you to death if you try to load the box and you get a lot of situations in which the best case non-Borland scenario when you try to tackle Hyde one on one happens five yards downfield.
Right: Miller. He's bounced in and out of the lineup with injury but has still rolled up 738 yards at 6.4 a pop without even bothering to remove sacks. You have seen him play against Michigan twice; you know the game-changing ability his legs bring. He's improved as a passer, as well. Between Miller and Keny Guiton, OSU QBs are over 1,000 yards on the season at 7.3 yards an attempt, without even bothering to remove sacks.
Finally, Ohio State has a three-headed scatback that is over 1,000 yards itself. Jordan Hall is the primary guy; freshmen Ezekiel Elliot and Dontre Wilson chip in. All are RB/slot hybrids to some degree, with Wilson the most slot-like and Elliot the most tailback-like; these guys flit out of the backfield to grab screens, take outside runs, sometimes just take inside runs, and are preferred in OSU's option game to Hyde for obvious reasons. Collectively they're averaging 7.4 yards an attempt.
As a team Ohio State has nearly 3500 rushing yards at nearly 7 yards a carry and 36 touchdowns. But it won't work in the Big Ten.
Michigan's run defense is pretty good and they have an edge weapon or two (read: Jake Ryan) that can allow Michigan to be more aggressive in the box without giving up a ton of easy edge stuff. It's not going to be enough. This is an A+ offense against a B+ defense, and to some extent they're going to get exposed.
Key Matchup: Brian's Head versus Mounting Internal Pressure. This is my worst nightmare as a fan. Michigan is going to watch this death machine rushing offense beat them by using spread concepts with huge animated question marks over their heads, and they'll ignore that as they go forward so they can go back to the glory days where the incredibly loaded 1999 offense rushed for 3.2 yards a carry.
Pass Defense vs Ohio State
The structure of the offense and Miller's continual improvement have made this another area to consider with a jaundiced eye. Miller and Guiton combine to average 68% completion rate and 7.8 yards an attempt; Miller has 19 touchdowns against four interceptions; Guiton has 14 touchdowns against two interceptions.
OSU only passes about 38% of the time because of the previous section, and a large chunk of those throws are wide receiver screens, so maybe 30% of the time an Ohio State quarterback will survey the field, looking for someone downfield. This results in the kinds of problems you'd expect: zero pass rush as a run-focused DL is caught off guard and is trying to contain Miller at all costs (13 sacks allowed on the year); guys running open as linebackers and safeties suck up; cornerbacks left on an island by Miller demanding safety attention.
Miller is still not Dan Marino, but it hardly matters in an offense that rarely finds itself in true passing situations—when you average seven yards a carry, third and seven is a standard down and how often are you even in third and seven?—and uses Miller's assets to open up great cavernous holes for him to explore with buckets of time.
OSU's WRs are not great. Devin Smith is probably their best; he makes spectacular catches and is their best downfield threat. Philly Brown is the guy with the most catches; often those are of a screen nature. They do throw to the tight ends, with Jeff Heuerman and Nick Vannett combining for 28 receptions; three-headed scatback has 36 receptions itself. Entertainingly mouthy Evan Spencer is a short-yardage third WR.
Michigan's held up pretty well here this year—actually that's an understatement when they have almost as many interceptions as they've ceded passing touchdowns. This is a good secondary, especially when they're not futzing with the safeties for no reason. Michigan will bring Gordon into the box, leave Ryan on the field over the slot, and try to live with Countess and Taylor in tight-ish coverage that may leave them exposed deep. But it might not.
This will be a sidelight to the run game, one on which Miller has plenty of time when Michigan isn't going for all-out blitzes on third downs. It'll be up to the secondary to cover long enough for Miller to engage terrifying scramble mode, and then Michigan will have to contain that.
Key Matchup: Mattison dialing up pressures that might confuse Miller on third and longs, which will occasionally happen?
Special Teams
Drew Basil has attempted all of nine field goals on the year against 66 extra points. I'm cold. I'm so cold. Aussie punter Cameron Johnston is averaging 44 yards a kick, and has only allowed six returns on his 34 attempts, though one of those was returned for a touchdown. Philly Brown is their punt returner; he is meh. Kickoff returns are almost irrelevant but Ohio State is pretty good at both phases.
Key Matchup: AHHHHHH YOU put it through the uprights to make the final score look a tiny bit better
Intangibles
Cheap Thrills
Worry if...
- The xenomorph Max Bullough implanted in Gardner's chest finally bursts through on a third and thirteen, grabs the ball, and throws it directly into Noah Spence's helmet. Gardner is then tackled by all eleven Ohio State players. Eventually, Spence wanders into the endzone… FOR AN OFFENSIVE SCORE BECAUSE EVERYONE'S CHASING THE XENOMORPH… that makes the final 76-7.
- You perceive one football program that has successfully modernized itself without internal strife, starting with their seemingly hidebound dinosaur coach, and one program that holds up 3.2 yards a carry with four NFL offensive linemen, Tom Brady, David Terrell, Anthony Thomas, and Marquise Walker as the pinnacle of football.
- You are going to the game.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- Braxton Miller gets hurt… actually, no, that won't work.
- Braxton Miller and Kenny Guiton get hurt, leaving Cardale Jones in to not play school? No, that probably won't work either.
- It's the only thing you can do to prevent yourself from crying.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for They Are Good, +1 for We Are Not, +1 for Showing Manball Proponents What Manball Really Is, +1 for Michigan OL versus OSU DL Matchup Is Puppy Versus Woodchipper, +1 for WE GON DIE)
Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for Obvious)
Loss will cause me to... thank God it's over.
Win will cause me to... DIV BY ZERO ERROR.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Michigan wins! At losing.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- 35,000 Ohio State fans.
- A giant John Flansburgh rips off one of the press boxes and starts playing "She Was A Hotel Detective" at maximum volume level. The game is cancelled midway through the third quarter. A John Flansburgh statue is installed, commemorating his valiant effort.
- Urban goes for two.
- Ohio State, 39-0
November 29th, 2013 at 7:56 PM ^
I will be honest, even today. I was a fan of the RichRod hiring. I was tired after Lloyd Carr that Michigan had embraced Bo's offensive philosophy as if it were Biblical Scripture 3 yards and a cloud of dust. it worked, In 1970. When Woody was still alive. when Mchigan had 100 scholar athletes. when BIG was important and SPEED not as much. SPEED was Dennis Franklin. that doesnt work in the 2010s I embraced RIchRod for SPEED and for spead aggressive innovation. He failed because he didnt hire Mattison to be DC or didnt stick with Schafer. I wanted Innovative spread offenses and Florida recruited speed to compete with USC Texas and the best of the SEC.
Perhaps if Urban Meyer and that School down South continues to use more innovative spread offenses and school us every year, Michigan and Brandon will see the need to compete nationally using more innovation than MANBALL.
I am an optimistic person. I want us to beat Ohio 6 out of every 10 games. I want to go to Rose Bowls and compete for National Championship playoffs. I am afraid our staff though decent at recruiting are always going to be behind the coaches at Ohio in game planning and strategy and innovation.
I just hope Brady Hoke and his staff surprise me. I dont have high expectations.
Go Blue Forever!! Class of 88.
November 29th, 2013 at 8:00 PM ^
OSU has never won at Michigan by more than 11 since 1961.
Hard to believe, so a two touchdown loss would make history.
i did tweet Desmond Howard and he doesnt think it will be all that bad as i do
i am thinking 38 or 41 to 3 or 6 or so.
November 29th, 2013 at 8:09 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 8:05 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 8:32 PM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 1:23 AM ^
We must aim to be 10-2 Stanford, so that even if we miss we land amongst the 8-4 scrap heap of the Outback Bowl and just claim that we were just a few executed plays away from being a national champion.
The people who think MANBALL wins national titles are the same people who think Bear and Bo are in the same league because they had similar coaching styles and ignore the 6 national championships versus 0. I know it's hard to believe, but if your game plan relies on 20-22 year olds executing 100% of the plays so that you win by 3, you're going to win 75% of your games but never compete for a title.
November 29th, 2013 at 8:11 PM ^
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the Michigan hundred...
November 29th, 2013 at 8:22 PM ^
Every edition of the Game I can remember from 1970 to 2012, for Michigan to be competive, we needed a talented QB who was healthy. composed and on his game. Everytime we played with an injured QB, I recall our offense grinding to a halt with a lot of negative yardage plays and a lot of three and out's.
Devin Gardner is not 100%, though no injury has been announced. Mentally he is not been sharp since MSU.. He looks like a shadow of his former self. He seems rattled under pressure, and his decision making has been compromised. his throws have been late. Maybe he gets his form and confidence back next year. He doesnt have it entering the Ohio game. This is not a good omen for success on Saturday.
November 29th, 2013 at 8:28 PM ^
For Christ's sake, a talented Michigan QB also needs an offensive line that can block somebody at the point of attack. Tom Brady would not be much more effective than Gardner behind this line. We cannot run the ball with any effectiveness, and we cannot give the QB any time to throw.
That doesn't absolve the OC from responsibility to develop an offensive scheme that minimizes these problems, which he has not done.
November 29th, 2013 at 9:37 PM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 12:08 AM ^
Predictability and playing not to lose aren't "schemes" but they've killed the Offense.
November 30th, 2013 at 12:47 AM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 1:48 AM ^
A fair point, albeit a sobering one.
November 30th, 2013 at 7:59 AM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 9:01 AM ^
Respecfully disagree. There are schemes that mitigate weaknesses and schemes that expose them and Borges (for reasons known only to Borges) seems hell-bent on exposing ours.
Not saying he's EVER do this in a million years but if he did go four or even five wide what would the defense have to do to counter this? They would have to stop loading the box and he'd force coverage horizontally which would aliviate some of the pressure on his interior line. Even running out of a formation such as this would create more one on one line situations and less overloads which we've been horrible at picking up.
Instead he jams everything tight, almost to the point of putting a wingback in the formation with his stacked wideouts, tackle over and jumbo heavy formations. He makes punishing the interior of the line fairly easy for the defense (exposing our weakness) and doesnt seem to either understand or care that his seven guys on the LOS are NOT better physically or schematically than than the eight or nine they are facing. His scheme seems oblivious to the talent he can put on the field.
You played at a higher level than I was ever fortunate enough to but I've coached a little bit and I can tell you that whenever I had team i knew wasnt physically stronger and larger than my opponent the LAST thing I tried to do was line up and dare them to beat us "mano v mano" cause I knew I'd lose that battle. So there are ways to mitigate (if not eliminate our obvious line weakness - we just chose to not employ them for some reason.
November 30th, 2013 at 9:47 AM ^
He wasn't saying we shouldn't spread the ball out and pass like crazy; he was saying that even if we try, we probably can't execute it well. He did, however, also say that we should try doing this, because at least it works in theory.
November 30th, 2013 at 9:53 AM ^
No, I understood his point. Reader71 played for Michigan and understands schemes, formations and how they both play into or mitigate weakness as well as anybody on the board. I was simply pointing out to him that while there is no way to eliminate the problems inherent in an ineffectual interior line there are ways to mitigate the damage and we've chosen to not employ them. And that the formations we do to chose to run plays from make our weakness, weaker.
November 29th, 2013 at 8:43 PM ^
The last time Brian was this confident about a result, it was the Akron game. In that game, the "underdogs" nearly (and probably should have) pulled off the unthinkable.
Maybe he'll be wrong again.
November 29th, 2013 at 9:47 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 9:40 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 9:41 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 10:08 PM ^
The sad thing is that we may only improve to being a 3 to 4 loss team. OSU will be eastern division champions for years to come. DB will be happy if Hoke can eventually overtake MSU as the second best team in the east! May be by then we will get to go to a few BCS games.
November 29th, 2013 at 10:55 PM ^
Winning a BCS bowl wasn't really that awful.
November 30th, 2013 at 12:02 AM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 10:37 PM ^
November 29th, 2013 at 10:58 PM ^
I'm not going to convince you...but don't just sweep this aside.
What if this year is the aberration? What if Hoke's first year is the real indication of where this program could be with an experienced roster?
November 29th, 2013 at 11:18 PM ^
Ty maybe that's because you're a a faggot.
November 29th, 2013 at 11:49 PM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 12:04 AM ^
Oh come on don't you start being a faggot too.
November 30th, 2013 at 2:13 AM ^
This ain't the place for kittens, self-affirmation, and happy talk, that's for sure.
November 29th, 2013 at 9:53 PM ^
Define It, Go Blue.
November 29th, 2013 at 10:57 PM ^
Cheer UP people it is, one game, there is always next year. I have a different goal than most of you seem to, for tomorrow.
my chlldren are requesting that I don't do anything to embarrass them or get arrested. have been guilty of the former but not the latter. however there will be OSU fans in section 43...
so that should give you an idea of the goal...
November 29th, 2013 at 11:09 PM ^
39-0? Are you serious? Fuck you Brian.
November 30th, 2013 at 1:25 AM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 12:51 AM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 12:54 AM ^
What are you talking about? It would take a defense at MSU levels to keep OSU under 30 points when Michigan is running an offense out there that couldn't crack 200 yards against Iowa. No matter how good the defense is, they are going to get tired. So unless they can force a blizzard of turnovers, OSU is eventually going to get points.
None of that has anything to do with Rich Rodriguez, and Brian's preference for the spread over whatever the hell Michigan is running right now.
November 30th, 2013 at 2:42 AM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 6:40 AM ^
dear Coco - you know that your statement (that "he, and everyone else, hates this team") is a false one, and perhaps a red herring used to build up to a snarky comment of your own (you know, for example, that not even Brian wants RichRod back). Nobody who feels passionately about the outcome of this game, even those who predict a landslide loss, hates this team. That is plain silly. We all root hard for the kids who play their hearts out each week.
If there is any "hatred", it is directed towards the coaching staff, who, despite good intentions, may not be up to the job of making UM a competitive football program in the modern era. The vitriol towards the coaches, and perhaps poor Al B., has been locked on high for some time (and yes, perhaps too high), as the offense has regressed to historically bad levels of performance.
Perhaps you might be suggesting a more balanced view from these parts. The defense is clearly building towards something, looking good this year and perhaps heading towards very good next. The offense, well, it would be hard to say that; something is clearly wrong, and it seems like there is no easy fix. Some point to age and youth as a possible excuse; we can all hope that this is the case, but it seems increasingly hard to believe. We'd all feel better if the offense could somehow get back on track, and the future indeed would look fairly bright if such a turn did occur.
Finally, calling Brian "Drew Sharp" is just idiotic (no offense, but it is). Sharp doesn't spend hours poring over each game, trying to grade each player and thus better understand football. Sharp doesn't write with wit and humor. Sharp doesn't seem to even much like Michigan football. If you don't like what Brian is writing, please go elsewhere; we have a treasure here in mgoblog, and attacking the guy who makes the whole place work is about as dumb of a thing as I've seen on this site.
November 30th, 2013 at 7:29 AM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 8:22 AM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 9:11 AM ^
November 30th, 2013 at 7:57 AM ^
Brian believes as I believe. We're going to get shut out.
November 30th, 2013 at 9:30 AM ^
Michigan's offense didn't run ramped and we bitched at Brian.
This review is realistic, especially given how the teams have produced on the field against the same competition.
I hope we don't get blown out and I think The Team will keep it close, but I fear this contest won't be pretty.
Thanks Brian for your great write ups. Go Blue!
November 30th, 2013 at 9:49 AM ^
who appear to believe that predicting a Michigan loss is an attempt to prove something, or is indicative of self-loathing, or means a lack of desire to see Michigan win.
It's just an opinion based on a personal interpretation and analysis of the facts and evidence as we see it. That is all.
We don't believe that predictions influence the outcome of the game, either.
November 30th, 2013 at 10:25 AM ^
suggesting that predictions influence the outcome, but you have to admit, you and many others have embraced losing like a child clings to his security blanket.
November 30th, 2013 at 10:50 AM ^
what's wrong with that?
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