Coaching Decision in Arizona Game

Submitted by Ziff72 on

I was curious what other people thought of a rather interesting coaching decision last night in the Arizona game.

Setup-

Zona is up 3.   They have the ball.  4th and 4 from the UTSA 30.   23 seconds left.

Options as I see it

a.  kick FG- go up 6  but risk block or fielp position with miss

b. regular punt- risk block but kill time and only gain 10 yds of field position

c. pooch punt- risk block but maybe get some field position 

d. go for it conservative- less chance for screw up but probably won't make it

e. go for it aggressive- best chance to end game but open yourself up for disaster.

The time left made it interesting to me.   It wasn't a lot of time but just enough if they got the ball at the 30 to get in fg range with 2 or 3 plays.   A punt that rolled could kill some time but open up more variables.

In the end Zona went option d.  They ran up the middle and didn't get it.  I didn't like this strategy as it only killed 2 seconds.  UTSA got the ball but ran 2 horrible plays and the game ended, but I wasn't sure what I would do.  I liked going for it but I think I would have ran a play to the end zone or a wide run to kill more time.  A pooch punt seemed like another attractive option.  

Give me your play.

 

 

 

 

biakabutuka ex…

September 5th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^

You throw it up for grabs 15-25 yards downfield in a place where somebody is guaranteed to catch it, hopefully your guy. But if not, the DB won't be able to help himself if it's there, so it's easier and better than a pooch punt.

Clock stops on change of possession, so running doesn't matter unless it's your best chance at a first down. The actual running of a long pass play probably kills more time than anything but a 50+ yard run.

Evil Empire

September 5th, 2014 at 10:58 AM ^

The upside is high but the likelihood of the other team scoring a TD is super low.  A turnover in the endzone probably gets you the 10 yards of field position and a few seconds off the clock that a punt would, plus you have a slight chance at icing the game.

Space Coyote

September 5th, 2014 at 11:04 AM ^

A) FG is too risky at that distance. If you miss, they get the ball at the 37, though probably with only 15 seconds to go. Not sure how UTSA's kicker is, but I'm assuming not very good. That's two or maybe three plays to advance the ball about 30 yards, which can be done. Worse yet, a block may lose you the game. FGs, especially longer ones, are prone to get blocked. So FG just seems like a bad option all the way around.

B/C) If I'm punting, it's max protect and just getting the damn thing off. Always the risk of a bad snap, still risk blocking. But for a pooch punt, there just isn't enough room for it to waste time. Likewise, it's more prone to get blocked (comes out lower, tends to take a bit longer). A regular punt with max protection with a short field basically means there won't be a return. Hang it up as high as you can, you probably waste at least 7 seconds again. This is basically the FG situation but you gain 10 yards.

E) I don't like being aggressive in this situation because the most likely way to lose is by doing something stupid. The upside of, say, scoring a TD is minimal when all you need is 4 yards for a win. Likewise, a bad sack or a pick 6 or a fumble on an option is one of the more likely events leading to you losing. So being aggressive is limited upside with a lot of downside. Also, for people saying an out route or a screen or something of that nature (get players in space), those are dangerous calls in these situations. Defenders are looking to jump routes, likely playing close to the LOS. The downside of those plays is a lose, and the downside is real.

D) This is the best answer, and the one Rich Rod went with.  I would run something with a little more misdirection preferably in order to spend a little more time and try to take advantage of the defensive flow, likely something like a spring draw. But at the end of the day I give it to my RB who is least likely to fumble and I run something up the middle where a fumble (the defense will be trying to rip it) most likely ends up in a pile.

The last thing you want in this situation is a chaos play. That's any block or turnover in space, whether a fumble in space or INT in space. Offensive linemen running around trying to tackle DBs in space is a mistake.

E (Counter draw, power) > D (fade > quickout or screen) > B (max protect punt) > C (pooch punt) > A (FG)

robpollard

September 5th, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^

...making his first ever start on the road (and 2nd start overall). He was having a mediocre to poor game (e.g., he missed some wide open guys earlier with bad reads), and you want to limit the chances of mistakes by him.

Having the QB do a pooch punt, which surely is not something he practices often, is not ideal. There are multiple ways that could go bad (e.g., poor shotgun snap that zooms by the QB; QB mishandles snap b/c he's not used to the footwork and gets it blocked).

I didn't love the call of plunging into the line as it seems too "blah", but it was the right call when you have a raw QB who might panic if (say) UTSA blitzed and his "just heave it to the end zone" play went wildly awry.  The RB was great all night, and knows what he's doing, so let him have the shot.

sammylittle

September 5th, 2014 at 11:20 AM ^

Years ago Washington State faked a QB run up the gut, the WRs pretended to block and then went verts.  The run action drew the safties and corners in because a first down would have ended the game.  The QB stepped back and had a choice of open receiver to lob the ball to for a TD.  I would do that!

BornInA2

September 5th, 2014 at 11:23 AM ^

It wouldn't have been close if Carr hadn't left the cupboard empty. I mean seriously, he's overachieving given all the players he doesn't have.

Ever notice how he/WCiMFH (I won't say his name) ALWAYS looks like he just ate a lemon??

ADSellers

September 5th, 2014 at 11:27 AM ^

I say if a 4 yard gain wins you the game you go for it. Keep in mind that when there's a change of posession in thus situation, the other team has all 4 downs at their disposal to move the ball down the feild, not just three. That's a tremendous advantage.

Princetonwolverine

September 5th, 2014 at 12:23 PM ^

Run it back to your own endzone. Should be able to run off all 23 seconds. If not, then take the safety. 

Gulogulo37

September 5th, 2014 at 2:00 PM ^

Nice. That might be the right answer regardless of video games. Running around with all that space you could probably kill the time. If not, like you said, a safety would leave them with a few seconds at most. They wouldn't have time to do more than a hail mary unless you really screwed things up. Unconventional answers for the win.

Space Coyote

September 5th, 2014 at 2:28 PM ^

70 yards is a really long ways to go without getting tackled, and 23 seconds is a long time to burn too. If you start running backwards and then get tackled at any point between the goalline and 50, you have just set yourself up really badly.

It's one thing if he needs to get back 20 yards. It's one thing if there are like 7 seconds to go. But the 70 yards and 23 seconds don't make this option viable IMO. Way too much that can go horribly, horribly wrong.

Evil Empire

September 5th, 2014 at 2:45 PM ^

Six seconds to go when we snapped the ball from our own 39...Dreisbach could totally use up six seconds and then "fumble" the ball out of the endzone.  Hell, even rolling out and air-mailing the ball toward the goal line away from everybody would have been better than taking a knee and giving Colorado the chance for another Hail Mary.  But that's what we did.

Umich97

September 5th, 2014 at 12:24 PM ^

I'd run a fake punt. Snap it to the up man. If he gets the first, you win...if not, it's basically the same as a run play. Of course, that doesn't address the fact you had to use trickery to beat UTSA, so maybe that's why you just go with a standard run play.

JohnnyV123

September 5th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^

I like this question. It really depends how strongly I feel about my defense, offense, kicker, and special teams coverage but with that much time left and a reasonable kicker I probably kick the field goal.

Field goal takes a few seconds off the clock. If we make it..on the kickoff I either boot it out the back of the end zone or half pooch it to not risk the return. Then I'm forcing the other team to go 70 yards in maybe 18 seconds to beat me. Even with 3 time outs you're talking a maximum of probably 6 plays left and likely less.

If you miss the field goal that's still 40 yards with 20 seconds left to tie.

If there were more time on the clock probably 45 seconds or higher I think I would go for it on 4th down.

gsquared2123

September 5th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

Option-F

Have the punter take the ball straight backwards towards the endzone and run around trying to evade defenders as long as he can.  Then he can either attempt a forward pass or take a safety.  That should kill a few seconds.  If it was denard the entire 23 seconds would have been gone and the game would have ended on an intercepted jump ball.

/S 

For real.  Option E.  Agressive attempt at the first down.

ca_prophet

September 5th, 2014 at 5:03 PM ^

Any way you slice it, we're likely to win, so let's not do anything stupid. Stupid includes a punt/FG where a block loses the game and a successful play doesn't win it outright. Any risk of losing outright in exchange for less than 100% win is not worth it, so I'm going for it. Mildly less stupid but still risky are what was termed "chaos plays" earlier - don't run something complicated. This comes down to either my base run play or play-action off of it. Since everyone will be in the box, I'll call a play-action pass where if someone isn't hand-wavingly open, my QB has orders to throw it to the moon and let time tick off until the ball lands in the end zone. Think mortar not laser. And if there's time I'll tell the WR to stop at the two and use up as much time as possible if he catches it. A win by three guaranteed is better than any chance of a comeback from 10, not matter how slight (kick return, plus onside plus FG is not impossible, for example, though vanishingly small). My second choice is to run the obvious but safe run play and just make them drive the field in 2-3 plays.

SHub'68

September 5th, 2014 at 6:34 PM ^

I'm thinking primary deep,and someone short out near the sideline.  Look short if deep isn't there, it's a safe pass, maybe the receiver can make the sticks.  If not, well you had two options that could end the game if carried out and hopefully burn some seconds if you didn't.