3/16 Bracketology
Joe Lunardi just released his 3/16 bracketology, and he has us as a 1 seed in the East. Villanova is the 2 there, along with Virginia as a 3 and a 2nd round matchup with either UMass or Oklahoma St.
According to Bracket Matrix, we are the last 1 seed with Villanova as the top 2 and every bracket being updated either today or yesterday.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
Was that a Jimmy Fallon like Ew? if so haha. If not I agree.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:13 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
Yeah, thinking the same thing. Ok. St. can absolutely pull an upset like this.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
And yes from what I know about the selection process and in talking to people think there is a good chance that fourth #1 is set now
March 16th, 2014 at 12:22 PM ^
Set as in "We don't care about the outcome of today's UM/MSU game?" If so, great.
If not, I can't imagine us falling too far.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^
The committee usually ignores the results of those last two Sunday games unless it's simply a matter of flipping the two teams. MSU and Michigan don't flip if MSU wins; neither do Kentucky/Florida if UK wins. If Michigan were playing Wisconsin they'd probably let the game decide who got which slot, but not now.
A lot of the work in making a bracket is satsifying all the conference constraints, making sure the first three teams are in different regions and there aren't any conference teams paired in the same half-region. When you flip two teams in the same conference everyone else stays the same, but when you flip teams from different conferences you have to more or less start over and redo the whole bracket. They could go into those last games with multiple brackets in place and choose one of them based on the results, but committees are slow beasts and that's not usually how it goes.
This is a very good synopsis, especially the point about flipping "like" teams from the same conference. We don't flip with MSU. But we would have flipped easily with Wisconsin.
So, Wiscy played themselves out of a potential #1 seed by losing in the BTT semis, and may have handed it to us.
If so, thanks for the gift, Bo Ryan. It's a good think we always speak so highly of him here at Michigan.
It's also possible that they played us out of a potential #1 seed.
If Michigan were playing Wisconsin the committee would know that one or the other would win today and could comfortably slot that winner into the one-slot. This way there's a chance Michigan would lose and it would be too late to move them out. If they don't think an 8-loss Michigan should get a one-seed they might not want to risk that possibility. The other options don't have a downside: they can flip VA and Duke, and Villanova and Louisville are done and can't lose again.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
Why isnt Louisville not getting more love?
March 16th, 2014 at 12:03 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
They are 5-5 against RPI top 50 teams. Not a lot to hang their hat on in their resume.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:42 PM ^
Not to mention 3 of those wins are over UConn, so they've only actually beat 3 teams in the RPI Top 50, and didn't beat a single team OOC that will make the tourney
March 16th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^
RPI in the 20's I believe
March 16th, 2014 at 12:23 PM ^
Louisville is
#2 kenpom
#2 massey power
#1 sagarin predictor
#22 rpi
You can make up your own mind but I know which I trust.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:53 PM ^
I trust it to a point. Louisvilles SoS is marginally better than WSUs, If Wichita had five losses noone would be clamoring to give them a one seed. Yes, they have blown out a lot of the bad teams they have played, but I don't really feel like they've had to play outside their comfort zone this year.
Because SOS is an average. Wichita played a whole bunch of teams in the 100-200 range; Louisville played some excellent teams and some really terrible teams. SOS comes out the same but Louisville's expected record is worse.
Louisville lost their five games to teams (I"m using Massey because his database is easy to use) in the top 40 (21, 25, 26, 39, 39)
Wichita played only one team in the top 40, St. Louis at 33. The fourth-best team on Wichita's schedule was Tulsa, the fifth-best team was North Carolina Central. If Louisville had losses to Tulsa and North Carolina Central we wouldn't be arguing about a one seed.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
They are a #3 in the Midwest according to Lunardi. Their SOS is 97th, and even though they blitzed a couple of teams recently it wasn't necesssarily a murder's row (Rutgers, Houston, UConn twice). And three of their 5 top 50 wins are against UConn, which definitely has diminishing returns.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:03 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
I'm with you, except It's not a win-win if we face OK St. that early in the tournament. Plus with this bracket the 2 seed looks to have it easier all the way through in the Midwest. Still, it won't be a 100% accurate estimate of the bracket so hopefully WSU has to face OK St. as a potential second round matchup instead.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
They are still ahead of us in ESPN's BPI rankings. Seriously though, the teams in the middle of the seedings are bunched so close together that they could easily move a couple of lines up or down..
March 16th, 2014 at 12:35 PM ^
because it's extremely likely they won't even face them as a 1-seed.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^
Is it extremely likely that OK State would lose to UMass? Surely it's not extremely likely that Michigan would lose to Coastal Carolina.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^
Outside of the second round draw of Oklahoma State/Umass, I think this would be a really favorable draw for us.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^
Eh...New Mexico honestly isn't an ideal matchup for us either. They run their offense through two bruising and pretty skilled big men down low. Tough defensive assignment for our guys.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
Given past tournament performance, knock on wood, I'm not too terrified of them.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^
I get a sense that NM is going to be a bit better this year in the tourney. They have a good road record, no bad losses, but I think the expectations are lowered a bit, which should help. Also, they ran into a rough matchup last year against Harvard; I don't see Tulsa giving them as much trouble.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:10 PM ^
There is probably like a 1% chance that Lunardi would pick the exact seeds in our region, but Oklahoma State would be bad news. We have trouble with guards who like to take it into the paint, and Marcus Smart is probably the best guard in the country at doing just that. That would be a #1 seed and pairing that I would rather not have.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
Why does Jay Bilas seem to hate us?
March 16th, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:24 PM ^
This is a funny thing to be saying to someone with LA in his name, but I've often wondered what it is about SoCal guys and UMich.
Based on my *huge* sample (Jay and Bill Walton), I'm inclined to think that there's something coasties (those, anyway) don't like about flyover country.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
1) The Tommy Amaker Experience
2) The Fab Five ESPN 30/30 the Wasn't a 30/30
that means Duke has no shot at one.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
I don't know his intentions, but UM does have some question marks around them. Mediocre OOC record didn't help, and while they obviously play well in the conference the most recent run of wins have been far too close. Sure UM is winning, but they aren't necessarily blazing a path to the tourney.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^
Michigan is
#11 kenpom
#8 sagarin predictor
#15 massey power
#9 rpi
Kenpom/sagarin/massey all agree on Arizona, Louisvile and Florida. Massey and kenpom say Wichita, Sagarin says Kansas. (Kenpom and Massey have Kansas at three-seed level; there's a big discrepancy there that I don't understand.)
It's certainly possible for a sane observer to agree with Bilas.
That was my feeling. UM is fine, but this isn't some unstoppable basketball team. And while the #1 seeds this year overall look somewhat weaker than in years past, I'm not disagreeing that a non-BTT winning UM team doesn't deserve a #1 seed.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 12:26 PM ^
i think UM is better off losing to sparty today and getting a #2 seed in the midwest. by winning they get a #1 seed in the east.
on the other hand, i guess it's a win/win situation.
March 16th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
Play easier times on the way to the elite 8 if we are lucky enough to get there.
my point was that we may have a better path in the ncaa tourny if we lose today. that said, i still vote to kick sparty's ass.
Now that we are here, I want to beat the hell out of State and win the BTT. We would be champions of both the regular season B1G and the BTT. John Beilein would have replaced two of the three banners that were taken down. It would go down as one of the most successful seasons in Michigan BB history.
So, a win is money in the bank. The NCAA tournament is a funny beast. We could get knocked out early as a #1 seed or as a #2 seed. It would suck, but we still would have 2 B1G conference titles, a BTT title, and a Final Four to our names over the last 3 years. We'll take that.