Upon Further Review 2023: Defense vs Alabama
UFR GLOSSARY is here. Video note: I went back to Streamable because Youtube's been awful lately.
FORMATION NOTES: Saban got creative in his last coaching appearance. I called this one "Pistol TTBy (X)" for Trips to the Boundary with a covered X-receiver.
Reminder that "RB" means the halfback set up on the same side as the strength and a letter in parentheses means that player is covered. For example I called this "Single-Wing RB (Y)." There's a WR on the far left covering #45.
Michigan's passing downs exotic was that 30-wide front with a stand-up DE in the B-gap that I started calling "Crable" at some point because I'm an aughts guy.
In the 2nd half Bama started using two-back sets and setting up their RT in the backfield (they weren't calling anything this game) to give Milroe more protection. Speaking of respect…
[Patrick Barron]
Out of respect for your time and our photographers' skills I'm going to refrain from inserting too many screenshots of the Rose Bowl being gorgeous. Going from this to soulless NRG with its "Sports go sports! Who knows the words to Journey?" hype man that every person in the building wanted to defenestrate shifted my position from "It would be cool if they played the championship every year in the Rose" to "I am ready to rip up the streets of any host city that's not Pasadena."
[After THE JUMP: Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh SEE-YUH!.]
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O37 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 2 off | Pass | 5 | Sack | McGregor | -13 | -2.20 |
[H-Cross] (Motion goes in brackets now), Nk Blitz. McGregor(+2, PR+3) is through the LT since the LG was focused on Graham(+1). Also Harrell(+1) beat the RT who had a usually-they-call-it yank. Hello! | ||||||||||||
O24 | 2nd | 23 | Gun Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Dumpoff | Barrett | 11 | 0.30 |
[R-Exit] Twist and Milroe doesn't wait, dumping it to the flat for a minimal gain. Barrett(-1, cov-1) inexplicably backs away with the ball in the air which turns 4 yards into a decent gain. | ||||||||||||
O35 | 3rd | 12 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Crable | 1 fld | Pass | 5 | Sack | Stewart | -11 | -0.43 |
M has Stewart in a 2pt stance and twists him to the other side. Initial rush is stoned except McGregor(+1, PR+3) is free and Colson(+1) won't stay roped by the RB for long so Milroe can't step up. He bails and Stewart(+2, tackling+1) explodes into him for a maximum sack. RPS+1. Replay. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 12 min 1st Q. Morgan loses the punt in the sun and Bama gets it back at the M44. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
M44 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Trips (X) | 4-2-5 | Nk Even | 1 off | Run | Belly | Benny | 6 | 0.30 | |
Benny(-2) is the DT on the open side and gets washed down bad by the RT and sealed. D-Mo(+1) fights across his TE to initiate the tackle, as Wallace(-0.5) is a little slow to activate. | ||||||||||||
M38 | 2nd | 4 | Pistol TTBy (X) | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 off | Run | QB Follow | Benny | 3 | -0.31 | |
Eventful play. Read is fake; Milroe is meant to follow his RB but D-Mo(+2) has cut off the crossing TE who meant to kick him and is pushing that guy into Milroe's path, also delaying the RB's lead block. Barrett(+1) beat a releasing LT so this play is defeated except this is the play Benny(-2) got hurt on. His knee goes, the RT buries him, and there's an escape route to the backside that Milroe finds made worse because Colson(-2) is staring at the RB instead of flying up for a free TFL. Grant(+0.5) gets off a block to pursue, Paige(-1) got a little nosy and can't help, but Wallace(+1) flies down to force a bend, and Sainristil(+1) beats a play-long WR block to get this down short of the sticks. | ||||||||||||
M35 | 3rd | 1 | Goal | 5-2-4 | Goal Line | n/a | Run | QB Sneak | Grant | 1 | 0.49 | |
They'll never overturn whatever they call on the field but it's criminal they didn't call it a stuff because Grant(+2) stuffs this, getting under the C and standing up Milroe at the LOS. Refs-1. | ||||||||||||
M34 | 1st | 10 | Offset Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Under | 1 off | Run | Wham Iso | Sainristil | 34 | 2.91 | |
Clever design (Neck Sharpied) by Saban that uses a Wham block on Grant as the doubler so the T can release on Colson(-0.5) who eats it bad. Sainristil(-2, tackling-2) is alone in space and whiffs. RPS-1. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 0-7. 9 min 1st Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1.5 off | Run | FB Counter | Sainristil | -1 | -0.80 | |
[Z-Fly] Super on Super. Possible that Sainristil(+1) just sees it so fast that he's by the WR trying to crack him but I think it's a blitz (RPS+2) because Harrell(+0.5) dives into the puller and nobody's fooled by the Z-motion or FB whip action. Smiling just thinking of how excited Saban was for this play. Jesse Minter take a bow. | ||||||||||||
O24 | 2nd | 11 | Empty 2x3 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 off | Pass | 5 | Throwaway | Colson | Inc | -0.29 |
Illegal RT. WLB amoeba blitz off the edge. It's picked up but Milroe (Hat-2) is spooked and chucks a seam at a WR who's not looking for it. Colson(+1, cov+1) was going to light him up if he tried to catch it. | ||||||||||||
O24 | 3rd | 11 | Offset Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 1 off | Pass | 4 | Scramble | Moore | 8 | 0.19 |
Illegal RT. Graham(+1, PR+1) is off the LOS and twists, flushing Milroe. McGregor(-1) has contain and loses leverage on the RG, goes down, scramble. Moore(+1) flies down from on high, Milroe (Hat-1) slips 5 yards from the marker. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-7. 3 min 1st Q. Punter leaves his leg out and draws contact but Refs+2 think he had ample time to get that thing down. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O24 | 1st | 10 | Offset Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Split | 1 off | Pass | 4 | Sack | Barrett | -8 | -1.12 |
WLB Amoeba, LG is focused on Graham and nobody picks up Barrett(+2, PR+3, RPS+2) who explodes upfield for a sack. Replay. | ||||||||||||
O16 | 2nd | 18 | Empty 3x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 off | Pass | 5 | Sack | Jenkins | -5 | -0.12 |
MLB blitz with Jenkins(+1) twisting behind him. M has Paige down on the edge like he's blitzing, he stays with the TE and that's all the reading Milroe gets to do. Stewart(+1) has the RT shoved into the pocket, then Colson(+1) runs over the C so nowhere to step up as Jenkins comes around the LG. All converge. PR+3. | ||||||||||||
O11 | 3rd | 23 | Gun Wk RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 off | Run | QB Draw | Moore | 12 | 0.07 | |
[H-Cross] GUAP. They're a second late to snap on the TV but live they got it off. Goode(-1) gets bowled way downfield by a double. Q-Jo(+0.5) and Moore(+0.5) converge well short of the sticks. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-7. 12 min 2nd Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O30 | 1st | 10 | Offset TTE | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1.5 off | Run | Duo | Colson | 3 | -0.36 | |
Running this with a WR insert while a TE kicks a Nk blitz (RPS-1). Colson(+1) takes on a blocker with his shoulder and halts momentum, Moore(+1) arrives quickly to stop it for a minimal gain. | ||||||||||||
O33 | 2nd | 7 | Offset Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 off | RPO | Split Flow Give | Harrell | -2 | -0.89 | |
[H-Jet] Nk blitz is a first sign that backside hinge block is an issue for Bama. Milroe misses a give/throw read (Hat-1) but what kills this is Harrell(+2) dodges a stepdown from the LG then teleports to the RB. McBurrows(+0.5) flings the LT off of him and was there to help. | ||||||||||||
O31 | 3rd | 9 | Empty 3x2 | 4-2-5 | Crable | 2 off | Run | QB Power | Sainristil | 1 | -0.22 | |
[H-Jet] TE can't quite crack Colson(+1), settles for punching his shoulderpad from behind, but only after Milroe's path has been bent horizontally. Sainristil(+2, tackling+1) is waiting and form tackles. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-7. 9 min 2nd Q. McCarthy spin-o-rama/Morris TD drive, then Rolder and Hibner with the hard hit on the kick return to set Bama up deep. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O16 | 1st | 10 | Gun Str RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1.5 off | PA | n/a | PA Rollout | Moore | 29 | 2.30 |
Milroe's first completion is a possible BR because Johnson was leaving a checkdown open all play. Milroe maybe kens this is bait and floats a Hat+2 ball over WJ while at the sideline from a dead run. Sabb can't do anything about that. RPS-1, cov-1 there was zero pressure because everyone bit on stretch action and WJ was in a bind. | ||||||||||||
O45 | 1st | 10 | Offset Ace | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Under | 2 off | PA | 2 | PA Fly | Johnson | Inc | -1.16 |
PA+Max Pro gives Milroe time to launch a fly that Johnson(+2, cov+2) has dominated. Ball falls OOB. | ||||||||||||
O45 | 2nd | 10 | Gun Trips RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Pass | 5 | H-Out | Barrett | 6 | 0.32 |
[H-Cross] CB blitz with Johnson, picked up, Milroe takes the quick 6 yards in the flat. RPS-1, cov-1. | ||||||||||||
M49 | 3rd | 4 | Offset TTB RB | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 1.5 off | Run | Duo | Hausmann | 5 | 1.71 | |
WLB blitz gets Barrett blocked down by a belly TE. Hausmann(-1) has a clear shot but hesitates a fraction of a second and that's enough to convert. | ||||||||||||
M44 | 1st | 10 | Offset Twins Tight | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Penalty | False Start | n/a | (-5) | -1.04 | |
Center moves the ball, everybody points at it. Hat-1 | ||||||||||||
M49 | 1st | 15 | Offset Twins Tight | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | PA | 4 | PA Corner | Moore | Inc | -1.05 |
1:43, 3 TOs. PA+six-man protection which isn't enough to stop Grant(+1, PR+1) from making the pocket uncomfortable. Milroe still arms a gorgeous shot but Moore(+2, cov+2) is tracking, gets his arms inside the WR's, and authoritively PBUs. | ||||||||||||
M49 | 2nd | 15 | Offset Wk | 4-2-5 | Crable | 1 off | Pass | 5 | Scramble | Barrett | 17 | 2.63 |
1:08. Token PA, twist with MLB blitz. Grant(+1, PR+1) should draw a holding call (Refs-1) because the RG is on his knees and ripping Grant's opposite sleeve. Colson(-1) blitzed into the A gap then got wrenched into Graham. That's the opening Milroe needs to scramble. Barrett(-1) gets dusted, Moore(+1) comes down to make him pay but they got the 1st. | ||||||||||||
M32 | 1st | 10 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 1.5 fld | Pass | 4 | Hitch | Colson | 6 | 0.22 |
0:58. Low snap. Colson(-1, cov-1) covering grass with a TE crossing under him, easy 9 yards that the TE turns into 6 by turning upfield. | ||||||||||||
M26 | 2nd | 4 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Pass | n/a | Tunnel Screen | Colson | 1 | -0.48 |
0:49, 2 TO. [RB-Exit] Colson(+2, cov+2) sees the WR coming in and flies up and ropes him down from the back shoulder. Boss play. | ||||||||||||
M25 | 3rd | 3 | Offset 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split! | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Sack | D.Moore | -7 | -2.19 |
0:28. [RB-Exit]. Nk Amoeba blitz fools illegally aligned RT into staying on Sainristil a beat too long while D-Mo(+2, PR+3, RPS+2) bends the edge, fights through the RT's too-late grab, and turns 3rd & 3 into a long FG attempt. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: FG(50). 13-10. EoH. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O14 | 1st | 10 | Gun 2RB | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 1.5 off | PRO | n/a | Split Flow Throw | Barrett | 2 | -0.21 |
[TE-Fly] Nk blitz, Barrett(+1, cov+1) reads and gets out to join Rod Moore(+1) in holding to a minimal gain. Pass behind LOS so OL six yards downfield is legal, FYI. | ||||||||||||
O16 | 2nd | 8 | Gun Trips RB | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Split | 1.5 off | RPO | SZ/Curls | Colson | 9 | 0.79 | |
Graham(+1) swims past a double and that guy has to turn around and tackle him at the waist (Refs-1). Jenkins(+1) has won inside a TE and is going to blow up the kickout. Again there's an escape out the backside, as Sainristil(-0.5) has to take an upfield path around the LT and gets turned out. McGregor(-1) got blown out by a double he kept occupied, but Colson(-2) is watching the gummed up backside instead of the ball and gets trapped behind the McGregor mess. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 1st | 10 | Offset FB | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 2 off | PA | 4 | Comeback | Wallace | Inc | -0.70 |
Max pro, two WRs in a route with an RB leaking to the sideline. Milroe has lots of time until Harrell(+2, PR+2) beats a TE, comes through the other one, and now Graham can come up to force a throwaway at a comeback that Wallace(+1, cov+1) was all over. | ||||||||||||
O25 | 2nd | 10 | Offset 2TE | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 2 off | Run | Duo Insert | Harrell | 11 | 1.63 | |
Jenkins(+1) fights through his double to get some penetration and force a bounce, but M's light box hurts them as there's nobody to make him right. Colson is helping Graham(-1) whose double sealed him out, and eats the C. Barrett(+0.5) sets up and pops the TE who inserted inside the other TE, which forces a bounce but Harrell(-1) was trying to two-gap the kickout and gives up the edge for the first time all year. RPS-1 light box vs heavy run. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 1st | 10 | Gun Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Over | 1.5 off | PA | n/a | Smoke Screen | Barrett | 8 | 1.04 |
[FB-Cross] Good play design because Barrett(-1) is worried about a QB keep down the backside of student body right. Paige(+1) does a good job to set up the WR blocking him and make the tackle. Johnson(-1) was a little slow to come up and hit the FB which leads to good yards anyways. Moore(+0.5) again flashes down, and no I didn't hold off on this UFR in case it influenced his NFL decision. | ||||||||||||
O44 | 2nd | 2 | Offset TTB RB | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Run | Counter IZ | Sainristil | 9 | 0.50 | |
Tempo(24). Saban trying all kinds of runs. Moore(+1) fits in between the two TEs like a linebacker to force a bounce to unblocked Sainristil(-1, tackling-1), but Sub Zero is also small and gets stiff-armed for the 1st down yardage. | ||||||||||||
M47 | 1st | 10 | Offset Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 2 fld | Run | Yackety Snap | n/a | -13 | -3.28 | |
Looks like this was going to be that FB counter again. Center turfs it, Milroe falls on it. Hat-3. I hear the fans in Columbus are very understanding about these things. | ||||||||||||
O40 | 2nd | 23 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | 5-1 Odd | 2 fld | Pass | 6 | Yackety Snap | n/a | -6 | -0.44 |
Low snap (Hat-2), Milroe drops it, picks it up just in time to get sacked by Stewart(+1) after D-Mo(+2, PR+3) got in a mutual tackling deal with the RG that took the RB's attention. He wasn't getting it off anyways. | ||||||||||||
O34 | 3rd | 29 | Offset 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 3 off | Run | Belly | Barrett | 7 | 0.04 | |
Give up and punt. Barrett(+1) weaved through a couple of blockers to end it early. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 13-10. 10 min 3rd Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O21 | 1st | 10 | Offset Trips (X) | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | RPO | Insert/Bubble | Graham | 3 | -0.25 | |
M slants at this (RPS-1) so M's DTs are alone against the extra help. Grant crosses his double, leaving Graham(+2), who beats the C and then soaks up both the ISO blocker and the ballcarrier. | ||||||||||||
O24 | 2nd | 7 | Offset Trips RB | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 1.5 off | Run | Belly | Graham | 3 | -0.20 | |
On a hot day in the SEC there's a drive in the late 3rd Q when Saban always likes to go after the nose tackle and see if he's holding up. It's 55 in Pasadena, however, and SoCal native Mason Graham(+1) rolls with the double until his LB shows up, the arms the LG off of him, and makes the tackle for a short gain. This has been Saban Wastes a Drive Trying Mason Graham. Tune in Next Week when the next Alabama HC tries the same thing. | ||||||||||||
O27 | 3rd | 4 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | 5-1 Odd | 1 fld | Pass | n/a | Flare Screen | Stewart | Inc | -0.35 |
M shows blitz, backs off both edges, bringing 3. Milroe sees Stewart heading out there and hurries the throw in front of his RB. RPS+2. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 13-10. 4 min 3rd Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O45 | 1st | 10 | Gun 2RB Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Run | Arc Keeper | Q.Johnson | 9 | 1.23 | |
Think M should have this because they're running a scrape exchange on the backside (RPS+1) but they don't trust their own attack. P&P action to the frontside with the FB leading opposite a WR crack. It doesn't fool Hausmann, who cuts off pursuit and pops the FB, but McGregor(-0.5) and Colson(-0.5) each never realize the QB has it. Q-Jo(-2) follows the cracking playside WR too far inside and gets edged by Milroe. Dangerous until Paige(+1, tackling+1) arrives, squares up, and ends it short of the marker. | ||||||||||||
M46 | 2nd | 1 | Offset 2TE | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Run | Arc Give | Goode | 8 | -0.05 | |
[Z-Fly] Nk amoeba. Same play but FB starts on the backside. M is blitzing for a scrape exchange on the backside and a twist on the frontside. Jenkins(+1) is coming through his backside block so if Goode can flash they've got it stuffed, but the LT sees the edge dropping to the flat and redirects (Hat+2) just in time to pick off Goode(-1). Dude play by him but Goode has to set that edge. McGregor(-1) resets it weakly vs a WR he should be coming through and they get a decent gain from it. Harbaugh wants a hold on the WR but they've let way more than this go all day. | ||||||||||||
M38 | 1st | 10 | Offset Ace | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Under | 2 bdy | PA | 5 | PA Scramble | Goode | 10 | 0.33 |
Wallace(+1, PR+2) hides his blitz by seeming to come down in press and they should have another sack (RPS+1) from Goode(-1, tackling-2) beating the LG, who gets a last-second shoulderpad yank that probably deserves a call (Refs-1) and is just enough to put Goode out of control where he doesn't use Wallace as an anvil, and Milroe (Hat+2) is able to Vince Young himself out of danger. Now there's a lane. Graham(+0.5) forces back inside but now Milroe is moving and gets the first. Replay. | ||||||||||||
M28 | 1st | 10 | Offset TTB RB | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Over | 1 off | Run | IZ | Colson | 3 | -0.16 | |
Grant(+1) swims through an attempted double, C is beat and cuts his knees while he's engaged (Refs-2). TE and WR are engaged with Jenkins and Colson(+1, tackling-1) flies into the gap between. RB (Hat+2) wiggles in a phonebooth by JC's clubbed hand, but this forces a cut to where Graham(+0.5) has the LG crossed. Q-Jo(+1) comes down to stop the back's momentum and allow Colson to finish. Impressive work by the back to turn that into 3 yards from a loss. | ||||||||||||
M25 | 2nd | 7 | Offset Str | 4-2-5 | 425 Tite | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Hitch | Stewart | 9 | 0.35 |
Nk amoeba. 425 means 3 safeties and Sainristil at CB so the "Nk" is Moore. Nobody gets near the pocket (PR-1). Stewart(-1, cov-1) drops to a spot, gets moved with Milroe's eyes, and there's a checkdown open underneath for the 1st. | ||||||||||||
M16 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 bdy | Run | Split Flow Keep | Sainristil | 0 | -0.33 | |
[H-Jet]. Team execution. D-Mo(+0.5) deters a give and pursues. Colson(+1) flies out to put a timer on it, Wallace(+0.5) setting a fine edge, Sainristil(+0.5) tracking the whole way, and Milroe runs out of field. | ||||||||||||
M16 | 2nd | 10 | Pistol Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 2 off | Penalty | False Start | n/a | (-5) | -0.41 | |
Hat-1. Eo3Q. | ||||||||||||
M21 | 2nd | 15 | Offset Ace | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Split | 0 off | Run | Power Arc Keep | Colson | 18 | 1.85 | |
Need to steal this for the Orjicat next year. It's an arc read designed to hit inside but the IV look pulls Barrett outside and gets D-Mo to stall out (RPS-2) and eat the kickout for a bop. Lead blocker can turn inside, need Moore(-1) to realize he's a LB and follow that pull to the gap. M is slanting backside, which gives Colson(-1) a window to slam this down. Instead he waits and the RT can figure out he can come off his downblock double and wall JC off. Sainristil(-1, tackling-1) falls off his tackle attempt, Johnson(-1) takes a worthwhile shot at a strip, Barrett comes in and actually dislodges it, but it stays in Milroe's arms. | ||||||||||||
M3 | 1st | Goal | Pistol Tackle-Over | 5-2-4 | Goal Line | n/a | Run | Belly | Q.Johnson | 3 | 1.43 | |
Tempo(22). M has it stoppered with Jenkins(+1) in the backfield, but Q-Jo(-2) gets too far inside and trips on Barrett so the RB can walk in. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 10-13. 14 min 4th Q. M's next punt hits a Bama player but they fall on it so Bama is now 5/5 on fumbles in this game. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O33 | 1st | 10 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 2 off | PRO | n/a | Split Flow Pass | Moore | 13 | 1.24 |
[Y-Fly] WLB amoeba, Moore(-2, cov-2) doesn't see the crosser, who's their RB/WR gadget guy who lined up as an H-back, Graham forces the dumpdown and they take a free 13 yards. | ||||||||||||
O46 | 1st | 10 | Gun 2RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | RPO | ZR Counter Keep | Sainristil | 5 | -5.89 | |
[RB-Exit] This was so coming. Nk blitz, Sainristil(+1 redirects, can't get Milroe down, but slows him enough that Q-Jo(+3) can set up. Milroe tries to cut to the sideline, loses his balance, and Q-Jo knocks the ball out. Wallace(+1) wins the race and collects. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Fumble. 13-17. 12 min 4th Q. M flubs a flicker then misses a FG so Bama takes over just 15 yards back from their last spot. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O31 | 1st | 10 | Gun Twins | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | RPO | PnP/Flash Screen | Barrett | 4 | -0.14 | |
[FB-Cross]. Graham(+1) holds up a long T/Y double, D-Mo(-1) gets turned upfield for a pretty big hole that uses up Q-Jo(-0.5). I like his aggressiveness but he has WJ outside--either they need to communicate a swap or Quinten just needs to get inside this block. Graham's TE finally releases on Barrett(+1) who chucks him and tackles. | ||||||||||||
O35 | 2nd | 6 | Single-Wing RB (Y) | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Under | 1 off | Run | Duo | Harrell | 17 | 2.07 | |
Colson(+1) gets skinny in the gap and forces a bounce. Harrell(-2) gives up an edge…who are you man? Jenkins(+1) had a TE beat and gets held (Refs-1) or he might make the play, does at least bend the RB's path to Moore(-2, tackling-2) who swings McClellan around then loses him trying to wrench the ball free, leading to a chunk gain. | ||||||||||||
M48 | 1st | 10 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 2 fld | Pass | n/a | Flash Screen | Stewart | 2 | -0.45 |
[H-Fly]. Moore(+1) pops the blocker and funnels to Stewart(+1) who got out there fast after reading the play. | ||||||||||||
M46 | 2nd | 8 | Gun Trips (X) | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 1 off | RPO | QB Lead G/Bubble | Stewart | 5 | -0.06 | |
[H-Orbit] Trouble, with the bubble fake getting a false step from Colson(-1) and no reaction from Barrett(-1) on the Down G pull, so for a moment it looks like Milroe with an RB and G escort to Wallace and nobody. Stewart(+2) two-gaps the TE's arc block to set an edge and wraps up after a minimal gain. | ||||||||||||
M41 | 3rd | 3 | Offset TTB | 4-2-5 | 5-1 Odd | 1 off | Run | PnP | Sainristil | 11 | 1.39 | |
Nk Blitz and slanting opposite this which is bad (RPS-2). Sainristil(-1) tries to hop outside the TE's downblock and ends up getting cut down by the guy's knee. Legal block but has the effect of a chop and now the RB has a convoy. Johnson(+1) is able to get upfield and turn it inside where Barrett(+0.5) and Q-Jo(-1, tackling-1) can combine, but Quinten whiffs for an extra 6 yards. | ||||||||||||
M30 | 1st | 10 | 12 Guys | 4-2-5 | n/a | n/a | Penalty | Illegal Formation | n/a | (-5) | -0.61 | |
Bama sneaks a 12th guy on the field, it's noticed. Hat-1. | ||||||||||||
M35 | 1st | 15 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1.5 fld | PA | 4 | PA Dumpoff | Sabb | 2 | -0.41 |
[Y-In] Johnson blitzing backside, Milroe feels it and dumps to the flat for what looks like a good gain until Sabb(+2, cov+1, tackling+1) flies down from the hash 15 yards deep to take out the man's soul. | ||||||||||||
M33 | 2nd | 13 | Offset Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | PRO | n/a | Split Flow Pass | Barrett | 4 | -0.13 |
[H-Fly] Michigan's in zone so Barrett(+1, cov+1) is there to tackle quickly with help from Colson's pursuit. Think Bama's just trying to get into FG on 2nd & 14. | ||||||||||||
M29 | 3rd | 9 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | Okie | 2 fld | Pass | 6 | Sack | Grant | -5 | -1.98 |
Six-man pressure and someone has to win before the dumpoff can get out. It's Grant(+2, PR+3) who shoves the C into Milroe's passing lane then spins around to sack with help from McGregor(+1) winning inside the LT. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: FG(52). 13-20. 5 min 4th Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk Stack | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Scramble | Jenkins | 7 | 0.60 |
1:34, 1 TO. Jenkins and Graham twist, LG grabs Graham(-1)'s facemask and wrenches it to keep him at the LOS (Refs-2). Graham tries to spin out, and this creates an escape lane. | ||||||||||||
O32 | 2nd | 3 | Gun 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | Pass | 5 | Dumpoff | Colson | 5 | 0.42 |
1:19. Tempo(32). WLB blitz with a jab one side before coming up the other. This may have helped Jenkins(+1, PR+1) come through up the middle and force a dumpoff to the RB (Hat+1) who's met at the LOS but athletically twists and catches it moving backwards to keep his momentum for a 1st. Colson push, cov+1. Refs-1 say he got OOB when he didn't, which saves at least 10 seconds and lets Bama huddle. | ||||||||||||
O37 | 1st | 10 | Gun Trips | 4-2-5 | Nk Split! B | 1 off | Pass | 5 | Deep Out | Wallace | Inc | -1.07 |
1:11. [H-Slide] Barrett(+1, PR+2, RPS+1) looping--same blitz they got TaTa to fumble on this year--and he's coming too fast for a clean throw. Milroe turfs it to a guy who had Wallace(-1) beat by a step in man. Moore(+1, cov-push) had his TE dominated and might be in position to intercept a catchable ball. | ||||||||||||
O37 | 2nd | 10 | Gun 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split! A | 1 fld | Pass | 4.5 | Comeback | Johnson | Inc | -0.66 |
1:06. Twist with Goode and Grant creates a lane, Barrett(+1, PR+1) hesitates then flies up to force a throw. Johnson(+1, cov+1) has this WR dominated, pass short by 10 yards; Hot Take: Milroe's argument with his receiver might have saved him from a grounding. | ||||||||||||
O37 | 3rd | 10 | Gun 3x1 | 4-2-5 | 5-1 Odd | 2 off | Pass | 6 | RB Dumpoff | Wallace | 6 | 0.15 |
1:01. Again they come after Milroe (PR+2, RPS+1), with Colson free off the edge and Grant(+1) toasting the C so bad my dude's transferring to the Central Ohio Rescue Mission for Victims of Wolverine Violence. Wallace(+2, cov+1, tackling+1) upends the back four yards short of the sticks. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 20-20. 54 seconds 4th Q. Thaw recovers his muff and we go to overtime. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
M25 | 1st | 10 | Offset Ace (Y) | 5-2-4 | 4-3 Over | 2 fld | PRO | n/a | Split Flow Pass | Barrett | 1 | -0.35 |
[H-In], Illegal RT on the open side and M may know this is a tell (RPS+1) because they have Barrett(+2, cov+1, tackling+1) floating outside with the slot and D-Mo(+0.5) forcing a quick pitch. MB comes up fast and nails the guy for a loss. | ||||||||||||
M24 | 2nd | 9 | Offset Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 fld | Run | QB Counter/Pitch | Colson | 15 | 0.62 | |
[H-Jet] Another #SpeedinSpace run play that'll be fun to break down in the offseason and hateful in context. Jet motion and an RB pitch option to the backside draws D-Mo and Sainristil, and also freezes Q-Jo(-1) and Colson(-2) who has no idea where the ball is. RPS-2. WLB blitz by Barrett means he's not watching the TE cross opposite the Jet motion. Moore(+2, tackling+2) make the save of the season, taking a sharp angle and form tackling at the 9. | ||||||||||||
M9 | 1st | Goal | Single-Wing RB (Y) | 5-2-4 | 5-2 Over | 1 fld | Run | Duo | Colson | 0 | -0.32 | |
Snap is high (Hat-1) but Milroe brings it down. Might have thrown off the timing a little? Not really. Junior ol' more like Senior Colson(+3) sees the double forming on Grant and flies up into the gap before it closes, then hops in between to cover both and make the tackle on his own. Wonder if he's seen this in practice. Jenkins(+0.5) bashed a TE into the backfield and had both sides of him under control so a bounce was at best captured by a safety. | ||||||||||||
M9 | 2nd | Goal | Gun Wk Tackle-Over | 4-2-5 | 5-1 Under | 2 off | RPO | ZR Stretch/Seam | Graham | -5 | -0.69 | |
Nk Blitz. Tackle-over with TE lined up at left tackle going out to the flat despite being ineligible. I think this is supposed to draw coverage and open up a seam to the slot or a keeper for Milroe--Moore(-1) is fooled and follows the TE--but M has a Nk blitz on and a S over the slot so Milroe has to give. Blitz comes with a slant, Graham(+2) explodes through the backside A gap and ends this himself; Jenkins(+1) won through the C and was there to do the same. RPS+2 slant same direction as stretch with a scraper for the keeper despite losing Rod to an ineligible receiver. | ||||||||||||
M14 | 3rd | Goal | Offset Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Split! A | 1 fld | Pass | 5 | Hitch | Wallace | 11 | 0.51 |
Man bring five, picked up, Stewart(+1, PR+1) putting the RT into the pocket. This is the first time Bama's attacked a rolled down Wallace(+1, cov-1, tackling+1, RPS-1) who's in man and defends the endzone. WR gets a little pushoff to create space JW finds him and hangs on with everything he's got until Moore(+0.5) arrives to slam it down and bring up 4th & 3. | ||||||||||||
M3 | 4th | Goal | Offset Wk | 4-2-5 | Goal Line | 0 press | Run | QB Power | Moore | 1 | -4.11 | |
[RB-Exit] You can describe it without looking. The low snap (Hat-1) that Milroe has to pick up off his shoelaces. Sainristil(-0.5) taking an angle a little too high, perhaps to knock down the flare. Milroe starting down the hash as his puller tries to wrap around Rod Moore(+2) who's hiding his chest behind the blocking down TE, making himself skinny, ready to explode upfield into the only gap Milroe can get to. That TE trying to ride D-Mo(+1) inside and merely succeeding in getting a piggyback ride to the backfield. Josiah Stewart(+1) obliterating the space between himself and the hinge RT, shoving him back another step. Milroe's knee hitting the back leg of the RT as Stewart bends him backwards. Milroe diving futilely into the pads of Stewart and Derrick Moore, falling head first, followed by the RT clutching his knee. Sainristil returning, spinning, tapping the grass with both hands, facing the Michigan bench, running towards the midfield Rose steps ahead of Q-Jo, Colson, Graham, and Grant, who tries to remove his helmet, throws his hands in the air at the 10, then succeeds by the 15. Then after a stumble: Rod Moore. Stewart. Derrick Moore. Josh Wallace. Will Johnson. And finally, after three fist-pumping hops in place, Michael Barrett. Like there's nothing in their pockets. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 27-20. End of Nick Saban. |
I need a moment.
You've had more than two weeks.
And yet I'm still not out of the Rose Bowl parking lot.
Good one.
Is there a way I'm supposed to feel about this?
Good. You should feel good.
Like, are we talking all-timers? You're the history guy. Where does this win rank among the thousand-and-four?
1.
C'mon.
As you say, I'm the history guy, or one of them. Until this one, the conversation between us was which fifth game deserves to be with the four on everybody's lists. They were:
- 1898 Chicago (The one we're singing about in "The Victors")
- 1969 Ohio State
- 2021 Ohio State
- 1948 Rose Bowl
The first three had similar cathartic vibes, and were critical for establishing or reestablishing the idea that Michigan could win the conference against a systemically indefatigable arch-rival. But nationally they didn't solve anything; the 1898 team never got to play East champ Harvard (they wanted to), the '69 and '21 teams had losses to MSU and lost their subsequent bowl games.
So the only other game on this level was the 1948 Rose Bowl, where the '47 team returned for the first time since we started the thing in 1902. Beating a top-10 USC outfit justified a dominating regular season against Iowa-level competition and provided a comparison with co-undefeated Notre Dame that AP voters used to justify a post-bowl re-vote (of just those two) to put Michigan #1. To this day, Irish partisans change Wikipedia pages to pretend the December poll was the final word; the fact there's an argument isn't the '47 team's fault, but it lessens the vibe.
Also nobody can look at a photo of those '47 teams and argue they had the best players in America.
Sometimes the hotheads are correct and you just lived through a classic. Nick Saban's Last Game. In the Rose Bowl. With This Team. Such is the benefit of knowing history; you can recognize when you're a part of it.
This is your analysis from the play breakdown.
Yes, because now I have an appreciation for just how prepared Alabama was, especially in the run game.
They didn't look too prepared for Michigan's blitzes.
Yes, well unlike Georgia, who left one or two guys in to spy, or Auburn, who left everybody spying except the cornerback singled up on 4th and forever, Michigan decided to come after the talented freshman quarterback completing 40 percent of his passes under pressure. This was the Correct strategy. It was the strategy Brian was advocating in our preview. It was the strategy the Bama fan I met heading down to breakfast in my Pasadena hotel elevator admitted he feared above all else. I saw that guy take a major portion of cheesy potatoes from the buffet, and wondered if he saw them again on the Tide's first snap of the game.
This isn't too complicated, a blitz so common that Tom Allen calls it "America" and most of the world calls it a "SAM blitz" because it was already ubiquitous back when nickels were still neck-rolled linebackers with names like Clint Copenhaver and Rob Swett. The C and G were occupied with Graham, figuring McGregor had to be out on the edge, but with Sainristil coming down that lane Braiden got the inside one and came through.
That's a bust. I actually thought the last sack of the day was the most emblematic of Michigan's approach.
It's another nickel blitz, but they're adding a linebacker for six rushers against six men in the protection. This is a gamble that someone is going to win one of those man-a-mano blocks in time to prevent Milroe from finding the open guy. That open guy is an outlet right in front of him waving his arms and yelling "It's me, hi, I'm the open guy it's me!"
If he hits that guy and he converts or even gets to a makeable 4th down, we're looking at a potential touchdown to make it two scores with 2 or 3 minutes left. But Grant is spinning off the center, and Milroe has to pull it down and eat a sack. They have to make a 52-yard field goal instead.
Most of Michigan's pressures were this straight up tests of execution, not crazy designs. Where the thought went into them was the coverages they were playing behind, the goal being to disguise the attacks and confuse Milroe's early reads while the blitzers got home.
This one was excellent timing from Barrett but freeze it when he's crossing the line of scrimmage and notice where the pass defenders are leveraged.
Hot routes are usually inside, and every receiver has a defender cutting off his inside release. Even if Milroe had time to read this one out he's either throwing under pressure to a sit route in traffic or throwing the out to this running back for a minimal gain. I think this has been a hidden reason for Michigan's pass rush success all year. They're very good at guessing where the quarterback's hot read is going to be when he sees pressure, and putting someone in the way of that throw. This is what the Ravens do constantly as well.
So they didn't do anything exotic?
Oh we had those too. Passing downs were a fun game of "guess whether I'm coming from the overloaded side" with the standard array of loopers. There was a period in my youth—I want to say late elementary school—when every game was some excuse to punch each other's shoulders. There was this game where you hold your fist up and say "guess what this is? It's a DECOY!" and punch the guy with your other fist. Then you hold up the same fist like "You know what this is? THE REAL THING!" [punch]. This is an allegory for Michigan's pressures as well.
This one starts with three guys to the center's left and two to his right, but Alabama's seen Michigan do the "IT'S A DECOY!" thing twenty times to a dozen enemies, and cleverly sets the protection to the right.
They are stunting, but they're also slanting, which means IT'S THE REAL THING! Stewart takes a jab step towards the center to get his attention as Graham crosses the left guard to keep him from picking up Stewart's stunt. The RB picks up Colson, Stewart completes his loop, and Milroe can't bail. Barrett's hanging in as a spy.
Here again Michigan came with the fist they were showing, but Amoeba-style, with Stewart (the left edge) dropping into coverage. Milroe has wisely learned to ignore the obvious hot route behind the pressure, which Colson is cutting off instead of following the back outside. But the side he looks to just has Stewart dropping into it. Meanwhile the RG doesn't pass off Jenkins to the C, meaning the poor RT has both D.Moore coming outside of him and Sainristil blitzing his inside gap. He chooses neither.
Alabama's adjustment to this was to go max pro, which shut off the sacks, but allowed Michigan's secondary to double-team everybody not being covered by one of their best cover guys. Two receivers and a leaky back were not enough threats to do damage against this Michigan's secondary, even with Colson stepping down at run action.
One fly in the direction of Will Johnson and one throw at Rod Moore later, Alabama's passing game was abandoned.
I counted seven nickel blitzes from Michigan on 64 non-penalty snaps, which qualifies as a Game Strategy. As Brian said in the preview this was a gamble that Michigan's lane integrity was good enough that the Good events from putting Milroe into Oh Shit Mode would outweigh the Milroe Does Some Wild Shit events. The results: six sacks for 49 yards against three scrambles for 32 yards.
Saban must have known this could be an issue, because he came prepared with a dizzying array of runs nobody's seen since the Single-Wing era that I was capping and sending to coach twitter friends with comments like "Gotta use this with Orji next year."
I ultimately decided the arc read was live on this one, but it's so hard to defend, with one back flaring playside, another threatening a veer behind him, three offensive linemen to the playside, and then the backside guard and FB coming across to join them for a QB counter trey. The read is on Barrett, but it also freezes Derrick Moore because Milroe is looking through him.
I was ready to demand they get Orji and next year's linemen some towels and start practicing on the sideline immediately. These were not on any of the tape I watched of Bama (most of their season) in December, and you could tell they were new installs because sometimes that young offensive line would flub their assignments. Harrell gets full marks for this play, but I'm also certain the LG was expecting Harrell to stay outside the LT; the SAM blitz (with McBurrows up top) allows Harrell to come inside, and by then the LG has already fired downfield and allowed a free hitter into the backfield.
Where Saban did the most damage with his QB run game was running basic stuff with a twist. The first Alabama TD got labeled "Wham Iso" and its beauty is in its subtlety. Alabama's been losing that single block between the center (#56) and Grant all game. Michigan's run defense is predicated on their tackles owning these opportunities to cross a single block while the free linebacker comes into the gap behind. The surety of losing that single-block is why you can't release linemen on Michigan's LBs.
Well, sure enough, the center loses this one. Then the fullback joins, using his momentum to turn it into a double that Grant wasn't prepared for, and Barrett is already buried in the backside while the guy who released has picked off Colson.
Also Sainristil has been formationed into playing safety.
A big part of Alabama's plan was to create space for their backs and Milroe by packing the boundary with players, and using unbalanced formations. Derrick Moore actually had this one under control, but Benny got destroyed on the backside to open up a cutback lane.
Even in overtime, Bama was still breaking out stuff that did the coach twitter rounds with tags like "so much motion poor 25 lol."
This is a Mad Magicians level of misdirection. Jet motion from the H to the left, counter action to the right, an RPO to the left, and it all ends up being Counter Trey. In the end he gets Junior Colson running out of the play like a Washington backer who's seen too many gaps.
Michigan's response was to slant at these looks to test how well the Tide practiced making their blocks against unexpected looks. The SAM blitzes helped here too by creating a scrape exchange on the backside that nerfed any reads that direction.
When the formations shifted to unbalanced they weren't afraid to make that blitzer a cornerback.
That was enough. A stuff on one of these plays meant Alabama was put in a passing down, and from there either they punted or Milroe had some incredible escape. He had one to extend the TD that didn't come off a short field.
That was the only drive that the Tide managed to go the length of the field. Their other TD was a short field set up by the muffed punt, and their next-longest was the FG at the end of the half.
I feel a drive chart coming on.
Thirteen drives: among them seven punts, a fumble, and turnover on downs in overtime. Most of their scoring was thanks to their special teams, which set them up at the Alabama 45 and Michigan 44 on their two TD drives, and went 2/2 on field 50+ yard field goals. Michigan held the #8 offense to SP+, under the greatest coach in college football history given a month of prep, under 4 yards per play.
Play Type | Plays | Yards | Avg Yds |
---|---|---|---|
Run | 25 | 166 | 6.64 |
Dropback Pass | 23 | 34 | 1.48 |
RPO and PA | 18 | 88 | 4.89 |
Penalty | 3 | -15 | -5 |
Total | 69 | 273 | 3.96 |
Counting sacks?
Well, yeah. Those are dropbacks. But the scrambles are in there as well.
Who did this so I can put him on the cover of the yearbook.
Well it was kind of spread out across the team, but I think I can represent their relative performances in some kind of organized data matrix.
Do the Chart!
Defensive Line | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Kris Jenkins | 40 | 8.5 | 0 | +8.5 | Man does not stay blocked. Bama mostly avoided him. |
Mason Graham | 48 | 10 | 2 | +8 | Man does not stay blocked. Bama couldn't avoid him. |
Kenneth Grant | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | +8.5 | If he could be singled, Michigan doesn't win. |
Cam Goode | 24 | 0 | 3 | -3 | Whiffed. |
Rayshaun Benny | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | Two awful snaps and an awful injury. |
Jaylen Harrell | 41 | 5.5 | 3 | +2.5 | Gave up an edge for once. |
Braiden McGregor | 29 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | Great motor, doesn't use his length enough. |
Derrick Moore | 37 | 9 | 1 | +8 | Comin' round the bend. |
Josaiah Stewart | 27 | 9 | 1 | +8 | Better day than Harrell. Final play was a +1. |
TJ Guy | 0 | - | DNP | ||
TOTAL | 283 | 54.5 | 17.5 | +37 | Michigan's 2nd DL was better than Alabama's 5* OL. |
Linebacker | |||||
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Junior Colson | 53 | 13 | 11 | +2 | Way up, way down, that's his story. |
Michael Barrett | 62 | 12 | 4 | +8 | Going to miss him a lot. Like a lot a lot. |
Ernest Hausmann | 14 | 0 | 1 | -1 | Got in for the "let's try to confuse LBs" portion, 1 bad. |
Jimmy Rolder | 0 | - | DNP | ||
TOTAL | 129 | 25 | 16 | +9 | Excellent day considering the anti-LB run offense. |
Secondary | |||||
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Rod Moore | 62 | 14.5 | 6 | +8.5 | Waiting for his NFL decision isn't why this UFR is late. |
Makari Paige | 32 | 2 | 1 | +1 | Played some nickel, boring safety. |
Quinten Johnson | 37 | 4.5 | 6.5 | -2 | Got Milroe'd and hung in anyways. |
Keon Sabb | 5 | 2 | 0 | +2 | No more asking why's he out there. |
Mike Sainristil | 62 | 5.5 | 6 | -0.5 | Lots of blitzes, not a safety, still had his moments. |
Will Johnson | 66 | 4 | 2 | +2 | Tried him once and never went back there again. |
Josh Wallace | 50 | 7.5 | 1.5 | +6 | Wasn't a problem. Replacing him might be. |
Ja'Den McBurrows | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | One snap, one good blitz. Staying tuned! |
TOTAL | 315 | 40.5 | 23 | +17.5 | Best secondary in the country. |
Metrics | |||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes | |
Pressure | 35 | 1 | 34/29 | Put the fear of God and Graham into Milroe. | |
Coverage | 15 | 8 | +7 | Two deep shots and they shelved it. | |
Tackling | 9 | 10 | -1 | Bama backs were better than advertised. | |
RPS | 16 | 13 | +3 | The Age of Saban is over. The Time of Minter has come! | |
Hat Tip | 9 | 14 | -5 | Milroe things vs awful snaps, three procedure penalties. |
I need a moment.
Messirs Graham, Grant, Jenkins, Moore, and Stewart are not giving you one.
Which one is going on the cover of HTTV 2024?
The popular pick will be Donovan Edwards. The intelligent choice will be Mason Graham. But my heart wants to make it Rod Moore.
All year I've been putting the safeties at the end of these columns because there was so little for them to do. The QB-run centric offense meant Moore, Paige, Q-Jo, and Sabb could finally do some things, and Moore in particular shined. I have him for seven +1 events when he came down to end a run or a screen much earlier than its projected lifespan. When it happened again in overtime I may have sentimentally bumped one of those to a +2. Moore starts this play in the deep middle of the field, about the 7 yard line.
After Colson abandons his station and Milroe starts charging down the hash mark Moore has 14 yards to close and no help until the sideline.
By my reasoning, that's a touchdown against 90% of college safeties. Moore stops it at the 10, giving his team enough space to engineer their final goal line stand.
Speaking of that stand, I'm particularly grateful that Bama blew the last play on their own, because if this snap is good Rod Moore's name is on the tip of the national tongus going into his Draft decision.
#9 on the goal line in front of the Michigan 'I'
The only way Milroe scores there is if the pulling guard finds his mark and gets him blocked. Moore hides out behind TE#81 until that guard goes by then springs back to the edge. In the Tide fans' magical world where their center can snap the ball, Milroe is trying to get to the edge and Moore is waiting for him there. Any bend and Sainristil tackles from behind.
Paige got one of those "came down quick" +1s as well but Keon Sabb flashed big in his limited snaps, at a critical moment.
#3 the safety on the bottom
This was the first game all year that cornerback blitzing played a strategic role, and getting away with it when the QB sees where the pressure comes from is Hard. Sabb has to set up high enough that Milroe wont judge him a threat to a quick dumpoff to the flat. When I made a Tripp Welbourne comp for Sabb's recruiting profile, it was for his ability to move so quickly for a guy his size—a "problem fixer"—who could get to many spots and play many roles when he got there. Here we see the payoff on a play they used to run for Earl Thomas on the 2019 Ravens under then-Baltimore secondary coach Jesse Minter. I am making a "Keon Sabb is so Ravens" tag now, and can't wait to look back in two years and see what we've filled it with.
Sabb wasn't the third safety in this game however because Quinten Johnson was elevated to a major role, playing more snaps than Paige. On this one he was in for Moore, and Milroe was too much for him.
The way Michigan was playing Twins and unbalanced formations in this game was to have a cornerback remain on the edges and turn into a safety (which was why it was Sainristil in space against their RB on the first touchdown). The point is to have a corner there in case a receiver motioned across, and to keep a safety in the backside slot for Milroe. Q-Jo got a –2 for getting whipped by the QB's speed on this one, another –2 for getting too far inside and tripping on his teammate on the short Bama TD, and a couple of –1s for getting frozen by Bama's big RPS plays. In the scoring that was enough for a negative day, but in our hearts he totally redeemed himself when they ran Milroe out the backside at him again.
You're not really going to tell me this was a safeties game.
No, but Michigan's been murdering all comers this year with their defensive line so I thought I should highlight the second level when I had the opportunity.
Did they murder this comer?
They did.
Was it Graham?
It was.
Heisman?
LFG. Earlier I slobbered over how Bama used a fullback insert as the playside of a double-team to counter Michigan's preferred strategy of:
- Step 1) DT kicks some ass,
- Step 2) LB cleans up
…and surprising the DT as he comes off his ass-kicking. That worked on Grant, but not the second time, when it was tried on Graham.
#55 DT on the bottom hash
A big part of the early pressure was also due to a lot of attention being paid to Graham. That attention was both necessary, and debilitating.
He picked up one minus all day from getting sealed by a double, and a hard minus for spinning out of contain to try to get a facemask call. He led the DL with 48 snaps, as Alabama's Single-Wing personnel necessitated a more-than-usual amount of snaps for the 5-2 group, and Benny went out after the 2nd play. That makes it all the more impressive that Graham was still fresh enough to explode through the line in overtime.
I got Graham out of the way because we need to talk about Kenneth Grant making his case for an All-American shield. First-off that 3rd & 1 was a stuff. Second, the reason it was a stuff was because Kenneth Grant got his helmet between a double that couldn't move him, whereupon Grant's shoulderpad met Milroe's head, the ball met Grant's chest, and Grant refused to bend either by an inch.
This is the ball's most forward progression.
That's a tough call for the refs, not overturnable, and too unlikely to be repeated on a 4th & short sneak to be all that mad about, but it's a play that Kenneth Grant made by being Gabe Watsonesque. To get your 380-pound planetary nose-type plays out of the same guy who pass rushes like a 280-pound dervish is the kind of luxury usually reserved for the buy-a-championship outfits of the SEC.
The fact that Georgia's Jalen Carter was the composite 18th overall prospect of his class and Grant was the 444th prospect in his is not a reflection on the players. PFF scores for the first two years of Grant:
and Carter:
There are differences in freshman year volume, and sophomore year pass-rush grade and tackling that reflect different roles (Georgia schemed up more single-blocking for Carter; Michigan asks Grant to play nose) but these guys are on the same career trajectory of frighteningly useful freshman who becomes a rotational nightmare in Year 2. I'll reserve the shield for next year unless there's a crazy score in the Washington game, but Grant's heading there.
Any other draft decisions you're happy were made before you published this?
Remember how earlier in the season I was saying Josiah Stewart wasn't getting on the field over Jaylen Harrell because the former was liable to give up the edge? Well Stewart was the better edge defender in this game.
#5 DE on the top
This is another misdirection play from a weird formation that gets both linebackers out of their assignments. A chunk run here puts Bama in field goal range with a chance to go up two scores late in the 4th quarter. Stewart ends up with a tight end and Jalen Milroe. Once upon a time Jake MF Ryan made a play like this against a fullback and Virginia Tech's runny quarterback in the Sugar Bowl for no yards, but 5 yards here is a minor miracle. Stewart became that player over the course of the season.
The reason his run defense gets first billing is because being able to play the run like that means his pass-rushing can be on the field more often. It took some time, but Stewart ended the year as Michigan's most effective pass-rusher, doing most of his work the Danna way, but with sneaky good agility acceleration that occasionally reminds you East Carolina made him a hybrid LB/DE for their Stunt 43 system.
#5 standing up on the LOS above the hashmark
I can't say I'm as happy to have Stewart back as Rod Moore because I am a Rod Moore stan who's mad he changed his # because if I bought his jersey everyone would take it for an expired JJ McCarthy one. But I am soooooo happy. Stewart was a star by the end of this season, and getting a senior year out of him is a huge deal.
It's as big of a deal that they'll get one more year out of Derrick Moore, who just missed being a five-star and was probably the reason McGregor felt he was done with college. A true sophomore technically playing behind a 5th year senior was gonna work for 2023, but sometime during bowl practices we hit the inflection point where Moore's the one getting 28% more snaps because he's going to do more with them. Moore is reading his keys and blowing up (his side of) runs just as well as the veteran.
#8 DE on the bottom
You see it in the pass rushing especially. McGregor is a battler who tends to get himself tied up with his blockers, which isn't a great fit for an era of football when the holding slider is set to favor pass protectors (OL: "bullshit" DL: "that's always been the case!"). Moore is bigger than McGregor, but has the bend to turn a moment of hesitation into "You're too late to block me."
It's meaningful that Moore was in on the 4th down stop. He was another guy who beat his block on that play and might have been the hero if Bama's center wasn't a goat. If you don't mind watching it again, watch #8, the DE lined up on the bottom inside Sainristil.
That's the stuff. I'm not ready to guarantee four shields on the defensive line by Week 3's FFFF graphic next year, but it's certainly on the table.
What do I make of the departing linebackers?
Colson (nearly) finished his college career the way he lived it, making extraordinary tackles in space like a safety.
Occasionally making extraordinary linebacker plays like a Devin Bush,
Bottom LB #25
…and almost balancing those with utter confusion. His NFL team is going to love him even as he drives his assistant coach absolutely nuts.
Michael Barrett's team is just going to love him.
Anything from the corners?
Michigan had them backed off almost every play until Bama started going with their weird formations and Michigan need the CBs to be part of the blitz game. They tried Johnson in single coverage once, he blanketed the receiver down the sideline, the ball went out of bounds, and they never tried him again.
Wallace got the benefit of that off coverage and safety help for most of the afternoon. Only once, in overtime, did Bama manage to catch him in press and throw at him in single coverage. Wallace played conservatively to prevent a touchdown, then put every ounce of his being into creating 4th & goal from the three and no more.
Also Wallace had that huge, upending tackle on the RB dumpoff to force Alabama to punt on their final drive instead of giving that insanely good kicker another swing at a game-winner.
Remember early in the year the take via the UMass guys was Wallace is good at funneling guys to his friends but not tackling alone in space? That take was correct when we came in, but didn't last the season.
I know you've gone over it a bunch already but I demand a detailed account of what happened at the end.
Alabama came out in a covered formation. The TE on the bottom is covered by the WR on the bottom, and thus ineligible.
Earlier in overtime that TE went into a flat route (not 3 yards downfield so still legal) and Rod Moore covered him. I can't know the playcalls that would have been, but I bet you a dollar the TE was going into a route again to try to draw a safety away from a Milroe run. Michigan coaches might have thought this too, and used their timeout.
The second time Bama was in a different weird formation. Now the TE is eligible but his tackle is on the other side of the line.
The Z starts to go in motion and Bama calls timeout. Again, I bet you Saban had a QB run called, saw Michigan overloading the edges, and wanted out of the playcall. He said as much. He also said he wanted to get out of the playcall when Michigan came back from his timeout with the same look.
This is man zero, the thing you call if you're expecting a QB run. The RB exits to draw a LB out of there, but Michigan is still gambling that Milroe would rather run it in than try to fit it into a receiver. Even if the snapper hadn't blown the play, or the right tackle hadn't backed into his quarterback, Jesse Minter had Bama's number.
Redshirt notes: Bowl games don't count so Hibner gets to keep his redshirt.
What Does Did it Mean for Washington and Beyond?
Pressuring Milroe was the move. One point five yards per dropback.
The 1st string defensive line next year is going to be insane. Graham, Grant, Moore and Stewart finished the year on an All-America level.
We're not keeping Jesse Minter. Saban's last game will be remembered as Minter's masterpiece, even if it was probably against Tommy Rees as much as Nick Saban.
This defense was ready for anything. Unbalanced sets and 1940s Mad Magicians stuff? Okay, they got us a few times.
It's good news for the cornerbacks that Wallace was so good. They lost to a senior who's boss. Michigan runs some complicated coverages so true freshmen weren't going to pick those up in time unless they were starting from Will Johnson-level polish. It sucks to lose Amorion Walker to Ole Miss's money, but it's good news for Waller and Hill, probably.
Next year is the best safety room in program history. Moore and Paige and Sabb and they can get Quinten Johnson back (his injuries were real and he gets a COVID year besides) if they want him, and Zeke Berry might be ready too omigod.
Your Moment of Zen:
Makari Cam!
January 19th, 2024 at 12:50 PM ^
This Defense stands to be just as good next year. Need another DT to break out, and a 2nd corner. I would hope that someone recruited in the last 3 years can be that 2nd corner.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:02 AM ^
My god… it’s full of stars.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:08 AM ^
Out of respect for your time and our photographers' skills I'm going to refrain from inserting too many screenshots of the Rose Bowl being gorgeous. Going from this to soulless NRG with its "Sports go sports! Who knows the words to Journey?" hype man that every person in the building wanted to defenestrate shifted my position from "It would be cool if they played the championship every year in the Rose" to "I am ready to rip up the streets of any host city that's not Pasadena."
Word.
I must be in Patrick's picture somewhere, because he was just south and above our seats.
My bosses were all "Why aren't you going to Houston?" and your paragraph sums it up perfectly.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:12 AM ^
YYYYYYEEEEEEESSSSSSSS!!!!!!
January 19th, 2024 at 11:12 AM ^
YYYYYYEEEEEEESSSSSSSS!!!!!!
January 19th, 2024 at 11:18 AM ^
Is there a UFR version of Viagra? I'm going to need to last 4 hours to take all this in.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:21 AM ^
Thanks for ruining my productivity this afternoon
January 19th, 2024 at 11:29 AM ^
Maybe strategically placed for Friday to lessen the macro economic impact.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:25 AM ^
Seth, could we get an end-of-season FFFF diagram for the offense and defense? Would be really cool to see the final star/shield designations on this team lined up across from each other, plus see all the rotational/bench pieces to get hyped for next year.
January 19th, 2024 at 12:35 PM ^
upvote this to the moon so we get it
January 19th, 2024 at 1:00 PM ^
With an EXTRA icon for EVERYBODY on the page to designate PLAYED ON THE NATIONAL CHAMPION !!!
January 19th, 2024 at 1:39 PM ^
Yes, there will be a CJ Beathard Memorial Postseason Depth Chart after all the UFRs are completed.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:15 PM ^
Would love an animated gif showing the progression of stars over the course of the season
January 19th, 2024 at 9:14 PM ^
Sorry, I don't get the C.J. Beathard reference?
January 20th, 2024 at 6:31 AM ^
After the 2014 season when Jake Rudock was a little bit better than Beathard and the two split quarterback duties, Beathard's dad made some noise about transferring. So Ferentz put out a post-bowl depth chart just to put Beathard, who had 2 years of eligibility vs Rudock"s 1, ahead of Rudock. You know the rest.
January 20th, 2024 at 6:23 PM ^
Thanks for the illumination sir!
January 20th, 2024 at 5:55 AM ^
Sounds worthy of a poster. Or at least lamination :)
January 19th, 2024 at 11:28 AM ^
The first of many post season UFR's!
January 19th, 2024 at 3:54 PM ^
This gif looks like it's a HS FB post-game and that makes it even better
January 19th, 2024 at 11:31 AM ^
So we again go into the year with CB2 a question, but maybe less of a question given how good CB2 turned out this year. McBurrows won't be Sainristil but he'll probably still be good. LB a downgrade because no Barrett and no superathlete Colson but... Hausmann and Barham and uninjured full go Rolder might still be pretty darn good.
Then the best DL in the country, the best CB1 in the country, and the best safeties in the country. Yeah, I'm thinkin the defense will still be good.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:57 AM ^
Maybe no minter, though…
January 19th, 2024 at 12:23 PM ^
So I'm thinking we kidnap the wife and replace her with a Stepford robot that simply refuses to move out of Ann Arbor. It may seem extreme and illegal, but should we get caught, these UFR's will sway any judge that the crime is justifiable.
January 19th, 2024 at 12:57 PM ^
Sounds like a job for Connor Stallions, anyone got his number?
January 19th, 2024 at 1:11 PM ^
We got Papa Minter w/ the LBs, so let's give him a promotion if need be.
January 19th, 2024 at 12:41 PM ^
I'll say it now and you can lock it in.
HAWT TAKE - Next year's Defense could be the best yet. Two All American type DT... 2 DE pass rush demons... All American CB1... High level talent and depth at Safety... Plenty of high end PROVEN talent coming back. The only "holes" (CB2 and 2 Linebackers) have experienced talent coming back.
The only first world question is, will there be the same amount of depth (8 DL playing - 3 LBs playing 2 spots)?
January 19th, 2024 at 1:45 PM ^
Without Minter and Mikey? I doubt it.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:16 PM ^
Jaydon Hood got some snaps and looked pretty good at times this year, too. I wouldn't count him out of the LB rotation, either. I'd say the floor will be pretty high with those four guys.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:31 AM ^
Good things come to those who wait.
OMG those pictures!
OMG Rod Moore and dline!
January 19th, 2024 at 11:33 AM ^
@Seth, How much did the All-22 and alt cams improve your UFRing? Is there a path to get MGoBlog better film?
How much therapy would we have to fund to get MGoBlog to UFR losses & Inconsequential Wins (Iowa)? The online counseling services are really upping their game - there may be other enticements we could provide. I'd be happy to do my part to make you happy enough to do Iowa. If Iowa runs up a passable offense - it would be great to get an historical UFR on them.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:58 AM ^
They do ufr regular season losses, typically. We just haven’t had many recently, so you may have forgotten
January 19th, 2024 at 1:06 PM ^
My bad... not sure how I missed that, but it isn't the first/last time... thanks.
https://mgoblog.com/content/upon-further-review-2023-defense-vs-iowa
January 19th, 2024 at 1:39 PM ^
I could be wrong but I don't think we ever got a UFR for the offense against Iowa.
January 19th, 2024 at 2:38 PM ^
IIRC, Brian said it wasn't worth doing. How much analysis can you do of a Prevent Offense?
January 19th, 2024 at 4:19 PM ^
He did the charting and lost it. I thought the plan was to complete it. But with so many of those guys gone not sure he will.
January 19th, 2024 at 1:40 PM ^
It takes a lot longer to do it with multiple angles of film. I see the value now in Connor Stalions getting live video on a camera phone, even if you can't see shit, because you can actually line up the different angles to something. Probably saved him a lot of time in the edit room.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:55 PM ^
Seth, in watching the All-22 footage of the NCG, I noticed Michigan's sign guys most of the game. I went back and did the same for the Rose Bowl and Alabama's sign guys were visible for the time that I watched.
Is that pretty typical? And if it is, really how different can the footage be that Stalions was getting from his recorders?
January 19th, 2024 at 4:21 PM ^
Typical. My understanding is the benefit that stalions got was primarily organizational. You have all the plays together in real time and can just do your analysis instead of piecing it back together first. He saved a lot of his own time.
January 19th, 2024 at 9:19 PM ^
Well that's a show cause for Connor right there!
And shame on you giving succor to our enemies!
January 19th, 2024 at 11:33 AM ^
Glorious.
I hope the yearbook has a final roster diagram showing all the stars and shields.
For a generation we waited to have the team, the defense, that everyone else feared.
Remember when Bama opened the 2019/20 game with a deep bomb when Jeudy was singled up on a hopeless safety? They singled up Rod Moore for a bomb on PA. He dominated. Will Johnson dominate the one deep shot they tried on him, too. It wasn’t close.
And the DL… I want to see the shields. The DL that dreams are made of.
January 20th, 2024 at 11:49 AM ^
'member the 2012 game vs Bama in Jerryworld? The first play off scrimmage and they knocked our line back a yard with a loud thud. Knew it was going to be a long night right there.
To go from that to this year was well worth the wait and patience.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:36 AM ^
I'm not reading this until I can fully savor it.
January 19th, 2024 at 9:21 PM ^
Well golly, thanks for letting everyone know!
January 19th, 2024 at 11:42 AM ^
Upon Further Review, that game was still awesome.
January 19th, 2024 at 11:48 AM ^
Thank you, Seth!! I was hoping to not get any work done today!!
January 19th, 2024 at 11:51 AM ^
1. I woke up this morning determined to work hard today and get a lot done. Oh well.
2. This was my first Rose Bowl, and I can tell you it's a top 2 sporting experience. If you get the chance say yes.
3. It's so interesting how when you're at the game you can tell who's better very quickly. And we were for sure better. It was obvious.
January 19th, 2024 at 12:22 PM ^
What's #1?
January 19th, 2024 at 1:14 PM ^
For me, Tour de France; mountain stage or Champs-Élysées. YMMV
January 19th, 2024 at 1:39 PM ^
Attending the final round of the Masters?
January 19th, 2024 at 11:51 AM ^
I DON'T GIVE A PISS ABOUT NOTHIN' BUT THIS UFR!!!
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