accurate description of Michigan mens basketball situation
https://www.si.com/college/2023/03/09/michigan-wolverines-ncaa-tournament-out-big-ten-loss-nit
2023 for Howard < 2020 for Harbaugh?
Two potential first round NBA draft picks, and a first team All Big Ten center and you have a season like this. That spells bad coaching and as this article states, it could get much worse next year. Very disappointing to say the least.
Ish. Jett is a "first round NBA draft pick" because of his potential, not because of his play. Meanwhile, Dickinson is a first team All Big Ten center ... that isn't getting any real interest from the NBA.
And, more importantly, except for Bufkin (and I guess sorta/kinda Dug), they have nothing else.
You make it sound like this team is packed with talent -- and just underperformed. In fact, I think we have very little (experienced) talent. Maybe that's also Juwan's fault (though I think not). But it's a different problem.
I guarantee he did not think Diabate, Houston or Collins would not be on this team. The NBA always picks on potential. Look at Houston and Poole who most thought should have stayed in college. HD feet are to slow to guard stretch 4s and 5s that are prevalent in the NBA.
What is Houston doing? Last I checked he wasn't doing much. G league and occasionally called up.
Houstan is a NBA talent, which is why he’s on a NBA roster. Clearly, having him a second year, having Moussa a second year, would’ve helped this team. Kobe as a combo and Dug off the bench would’ve been great. Tarris spelling Hunter and Moussa would’ve been much better than spelling Fadeaway Terry.
March 10th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
It's been a year of development at best for Caleb. He's averaging 3.2 PPG and 1.5 RPG and takes almost nothing but 3 point shots at a 38% clip. He's making $2M / yr with $4M guaranteed. He will definitely need to kick it up a notch in the next couple of years to stay in the league.
I'd take Caleb's contract. $4M lump sum and maybe 4 total years at $2M per year. That's $12M over like 4 or 5 years. I'd have to work a long, long time at my current salary to gross $12M.
And it's so ridiculous to think that his money is near bottom of the barrel in the NBA.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
I do not believe this for one second when it comes to Houstan and Diabate. They viewed college as a required step to get to the NBA and hoped it would raise their stock in the process. It is pretty clear that neither wanted to be at Michigan beyond the required year. Juwan knew this because he recruited them.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:17 AM ^
He didn't think that about Houstan when he signed? The presumption then WAS that he was a one and done.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
I don't think that's complete accurate. Matt's scouting report (from what I remember anyway) indicated that, despite the 5 star ranking, Houstan looked more like a 2 or 3 year player because he lacked NBA athleticism and would need to refine his game. So it seemed more likely than not he would get that second year (obviously no guarantee). Moussa always had the talent but his game was raw and most considered him likely to back up Hunter and Johns for his first year. If Johns had not completely bombed and Moussa plays more limited minutes as a backup, it's quite possible he would be back (although I always felt that was 50/50 because of his athleticism).
Then he saw him play and thought, I got this guy for a couple more years, because he is nowhere near ready. He just doesn’t have athleticism in a league where it’s a priority. No way he has a Poole like career unless he learns how to get that travel euro gather step bullshit down like Jordan has
You watched him play just like everyone else. None of us predicted he would get a passing draft grade. He was a shooter that could not shoot. I would have bet the bank he would have stayed an additional year. I was wrong.
That's because you don't understand the NBA game and what they value. Houstan was always at the very worst a second round pick. 35% from 3 isn't exactly a sharpshooter in college but far from a gut who "couldn't shoot"
March 10th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
Even with all those departures, this team would've made the tournament had Johns stayed.
March 12th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Maybe. But had Johns stayed I don’t think it’s a slam dunk they would have made the tournament with him.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
The NBA always picks on potential.
People trot this line out as though the judgement of NBA front offices of potential is infallible.
I'm not quite sure how you draw that conclusion from that statement. Drafting on potential implies taking chances on guys with raw ability. Sometimes they don't pan out.
Poole had athleticism but Houstan is a pine rider on a bad nba team. The last two games he’s played 22 and 16 minutes and scored 3 in each game. The guy is just not a good player. Him and Diabate never should have left. I will guarantee that neither will be much of a factor in their careers in the nba.
There's a good chance you are right about Houstan and Diabate never being much of a factor in the NBA but that doesn't mean they should have stayed at Michigan longer. In fact, it may mean that their decision to leave Michigan after 1 year was the right one. If NBA had a 2nd year to watch those 2 at Michigan they might have realized neither one had as much potential as they had thought.
Juwan will never admit it, but I am sure he felt the same way.
Needs to sign Belein as head of MBB recruiting. One and dones kill the program.
I still say the problem this year was youth. We don't lose so many of those close games with an upperclassmen PG for example. I love Dug and his growth, but maturity/experience wins close games.
Also, the team seemed to play better without Jett. He is talented but wastes a lot of shots.
In the first half they had a graphic which showed total points scored in the Big Ten Tournament by Michigan players.
Hunter Dickinson had 42 out of 42 points scored.
I thought there must be someone else on the team who had scored at least one point last year. Nope, because Michigan was bounced by Indiana in the first game and Terrance Williams put up 0 in 9 minutes.
It was then that I truly realized how young and inexperienced this team was/is.
If they keep everyone and let Jett walk to the NBA (Lord knows he won't sprint), then next year could be very good. If Kobe is gone.....whoooooo booooooyyyyyy, it's going to be rough.
March 10th, 2023 at 12:18 AM ^
Youth shouldn't be a problem in your coach's fourth year, imo.
meh. this goes in cycles. sometimes you get wrecked by the NBA and portal and there’s just not much you can do about it.
March 10th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
And injuries. Don't forget about injuries. If Llewellyn had played and developed like a Mike Smith (horrible to start, learns the system and finishes strong), that veteran leadership would have surely led to more late-season wins.
There were many time when Dug ran set plays with very little flourish. Our offense is so easy to defend because, due to inexperience, it was kept very basic. There was one flourish vs. Indiana when Dug drove and would have normally put up his tear drop shot. Instead, 2 defenders went after that while he threaded a pass between them to a cutting Hunter for the easy bucket. He doesn't make that play earlier in the season. A 3rd/4th year PG makes that play all season long.
This is the college game now.
Top end talent plays for one year and goes to the NBA.
Depth players transfer after their Freshman year to get more time at a different school.
Thanks to NIL, you are starting to see some guys stick around 3 years if they have limitations for the NBA.
Except for the One-and-done part, this has all evolved in the last 3 years. It's going to take coaches and fans a little while to figure our what program stability is.
If youth is the problem then you better stop recruiting one and dones because that's todays college game.
I agree with this. However, so much is put on recruit rankings. The allure of bringing in a top tablet elicits excitement and enthusiasm. We are all guilty of it.
Now compare to the talent of all the other BIG teams.
I did a base level comparison of the Big 10 teams. I didn't dig down into who the starters were because I don't have time for that type of research as I don't know every team. The weighted scale is simple. FR = 1 pt, SO = 2 pt, JR = 3 pt, SR = 4 pt. I used ESPN's roster listing as my source. Weighted scale is sorted highest (Most senior) to lowest, (Most Junior). The final standings is the BIG final standings, not including tournament games and not taking into account the out of conference.
Penn State did the least with most. Michigan performed about equal to the rest of the Big. A little on the low side of things, but also not horrible. Illinois seemed to do the most with the least. The outliers would be Wisconsin (Less with more), Purdue (More with less), Illinois (more with less) and PSU (Less with more)
March 10th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
Northwestern would fall in the more with less same as Purdue.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
Good work as a snapshot, though slightly deceiving. I think you included walk-ons because the only scholarship seniors I see on Michigan's roster are Llewelyn and Baker, who are grad transfers. And then to account that 1 of those 2 seniors has missed most of the season with a torn ACL.
"they have nothing else" guess who's fault that is???
That's a big part of the problem. Jett probably believes himself that he is an NBA first round pick. There is something to be said about them going 3-0 when he was injured and not playing.
This team was very talented. But they were the weakest team I've seen mentally. So many late game implosions led by a coach who developed a reputation for losing his cool.
March 10th, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
Ding ding ding. Give the man a prize. This is why I can’t bring myself to believe Howard will take us back to the mountaintop.
That's 3 players. After that you have a freshman PG learning on the fly, a very raw bench big, and a whooooole bunch of awful.
Wait a second. We lost essentially four starters. Our backcourt in Brooks and Collins and Jones too ! Then, we lose Houstan and Diabate AND Johns. THATS SIX of our top 8 players.
Llewellyn gets hurt and it's an accomplishment we even won ten games, starting a tiny true freshman point guard who isn't ready, and another true freshman. And Shannon is a beast and was the plan but it failed.
Howard is a good coach. The roster management however has been unfortunate because it was win now. We almost did a few years ago but now we are paying for it Somehow TWill has gotten way worse. Baker I thought was gonna be good but hasn't been. Tschetter is nowhere near ready. Barnes can't get on court. For all the hoopla about recruiting uptick, Beileins recruits were much better.
I wish a few things.. one is he kept Davis another year, and then Mike Smith too. Jones we didn't need and maybe Collins stays. Collins leaving is on Juwan, either for bringing in Jones or not vetting Collins flight risk during recruitment.
With the right point guard we can be good. Sorry but Dug isn't cutting it yet.
I get the excuse engine but what data point says he’s a good coach? Where do you see rotation use, game management or adjustments that work? Roster management is his. If he was surprised by anything except maybe Collins, that is his incompetence. I’ll continue to be shocked by the baseless defense of Howard. If he played for Seton Hall, he’d be roasted universally.
I wish people would drop the complaints about rotations. It's pretty clear what he's trying to do and why -- he realized he had four guys who can play and who needed to be on the court whenever physically possible, and he basically ran those four as hard as he could. I think it's fair to criticize the roster management, but given the roster he had, he's pretty much done what he should have done, maximizing PT for his best players.
Starting Cheddar a 2pt a game guy with terrible defense is inexcusable. Baker/Reed combo with Jett of the bench and Twill in case of fouls.
No minutes to Jace or Cheddar unless foul issues arrive or for quick rests.
Baker needed all the minutes we gave Cheddar. You lose nothing but gain spacing and maybe 3-4 3 pointers a game which wouldve changed everthing.
Okay, you bring up all that talent that was on the team last year and now gone. All that talent and they barely snuck into the tourney last year. I'm not looking to fire him. I think he deserves next year to right the ship before truly being on any type of hot seat but the excuses need to stop. He had as much or more talent than the majority of the Big10 teams that will be playing in the tourney this year
March 10th, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
If only Brooks had petitioned for a 7th season we would have done better!
oh, honestly. john beilein went 16-16 with a team featuring caris levert, zak irvin, and derek walton. or how about the year he went 15-17 with a team featuring manny harris, courtney sims, and darius morris?
nobody said, "that spells bad coaching," or rather, people did...and those people were stupid.
dropping in kobe bufkin, jett howard and hunter dickinson and saying "that spells bad coaching" is reductive and silly.
And John was given time to right the ship. Which Juwan will also have that time. However, the excuses need to stop. You can't objectively look at this season as anything but a complete failure from a coaching standpoint. This team was God awful during crunchtime all season. To me that's on court leadership and coaching. With coaching getting the brunt of the blame. Same goes for the CMU loss. You can't lose to a team that is wildly less talented. That's not having the guys ready to execute a game plan. Hunter had 9 shots in that game while Jett was allowed to shoot an absurd 11 threes. Run the damn ball!!! It's how you all but guarantee you beat inferior talent. Line em up and run em over.
There, my nonsensical morning rant is over. Thank you for letting me rage for a minute
March 10th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
You can't objectively look at this season as anything but a complete failure from a coaching standpoint.
am i disappointed? on the whole, do i think we underperformed this year, in terms of the results? were there times i wish juwan had approached something differently? of course.
a "complete failure?" no, i wouldn't describe this season that way. at all.
Missing the tournament for this program is and always should be considered a complete and utter failure.
March 10th, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
People keep saying this. Dickinson is an extremely limited player defensively and Jett and Kobe are first round draft picks because of future potential, not current play.
Its just a stupid talking point. In 2014-2015 Beilein had a worse year with future first round draft picks Caril Levert and DJ Wilson on the roster? Was that a sign of bad coaching. What about in 2015-2016 when Beilein had a team that finished worse in kenpom on this team and worse in the big ten despite having future NBA players Levert, Robinson, Wagner and Wilson on the team? Bad coaching?
Beilein would be killing it with this team.
Because Joey Baker would be lighting it up not watching Jace and Cheddar eat up minutes. Joey was showing real life there for awhile but sitting 30 minutes a game behind 2 pt a game players like Twill and Cheddar will make sure you never get hot.