3/28/2019 – Purdue 99, Tennessee 94 (OT) –

what

i mean did you see that game

look at this dude pointing at it

[Campredon]

it was really fun!

oh fine

3/28/2019 – Michigan 44, Texas Tech 63 – 30-7, 15-5 Big Ten, season over

I'm torn. On the one hand, walk-on CJ Baird crotching in a three in the desultory final moments of a 20-point game was somehow fitting. On the other, they showed a stat that it had been 261 games since Michigan had managed to go 40 minutes of basketball without hitting a single three, and that 0-fer in the box score would have been an even more powerful indicator of what happened than 1/19.

A collective mania set in as this was happening as the horrible results overwhelmed anyone's ability to process what happened before them. Four different threes rimmed out in the first half. A fifth was Michigan's first attempt, which was a blindingly wide open shot from Brazdeikis that barely grazed the front of the rim. Brazdeikis entered the game a 41% shooter from three, and did that with an uncontested catch and shoot look.

collective fanbase response to aforementioned shot

Michigan is a limited offensive team full of guys with major holes in their toolsets. Simpson can't shoot. Iggy can't pass. Poole can't stop oscillating wildly. Teske can't create his own shots. Matthews has some variety of all these issues. All these guys have assets that they managed to cobble together a top-25 offense out of, but there was a hard stop. So when they run up against a defense just as good as theirs they have a limited set of responses. When they run up against a team that's comfortable switching everything those responses narrow further.

When you are in this situation and literally do not hit a shot outside of the paint in the first 30 minutes you get run out of the building.

Last year's title game was against a very different team but was the same story. Michigan's offense did reasonably well inside the line, given the context (66% against Villanova, 50% against Texas Tech) and then had horrific, historically bad shooting from three (3/23 and 1/19) on looks that were more or less what you'd expect the opponent to give up. Tech did contest threes well; there were a couple of ugly stepbacks mixed in. But when Isaiah Livers rises up for a barely contested look in the corner where he's ~50% from and it rattles out to continue your 0-fer streak deep into the second half, there's nothing to say except "shit."

In a world where basketball consists of a million copies of every shot and you're awarded the average of your million trials, Texas Tech probably still wins this game. But, hell, hand Michigan 5 of their 18 pre-Baird attempts (28%, worse than Tech's season average allowed) and delete the banked-in prayer from Mooney and Baird isn't on the floor because it's a four-point game. The difference between a hard-fought game against an elite foe that aw-shucks you lost and last night's debacle is just shots going down or not.

Is there a reason that Michigan's last two seasons have ended in a flurry of bricks? To some extent, sure. I would kill and skin an entire herd of caribou for a shooter like Ryan Cline or Davide Moretti. The composition of this team leaves them vulnerable to nights where they can't hit anything. Versions of this column have popped up from time to time through the season. Michigan got in a 2 point game with Minnesota after going 3/22; there was nearly mass seppuku after a 3/19 night against Holy Cross.

nope [Campredon]

But also not really. Maybe there are reasons you go 25% from three. There are no reasons when you go 13% and 0%. Just frustration, and an offseason a little more sudden than hoped for. Michigan's started about five minutes into the second half. And while that sucks, Michigan basketball has never been in a better place. Don't let some bricks get that clouded.

[After THE JUMP: looking to the future]

BULLETS

Always next year. Charles Matthews exits, degree in hand, to go get paid somewhere. For the people who continually ask whether he's really leaving, yes he's really leaving:

"We're very sad that his college career is ending," John Beilein said, "But he will work his tail off to have a successful career going forward, and he'll have a big imprint on Michigan forever."

At this point it is fair to say that he has left.

Neither Brazdeikis or Poole had much to say on their futures:

"I'm not thinking about that stuff right now," Brazdeikis said.

Poole also said he hadn't given it any thought. "I'm just trying to be supportive for the guys around me right now. Guys like Charles that have dedicated so much time to basketball. (Zavier Simpson) is a leader. The managers, everybody. I'm just trying to stay in the current moment. That's really about it right now."

One or both may go through the pre-draft process like Matthews did a year ago but unless something changes drastically neither seems close to the first round. There have been rumblings over the course of the year that both would like to go as soon as possible. Exactly what the definition of "possible" is remains unknown.

If both guys come back the starting lineup is obvious: Livers slides into the starting lineup, likely bumping Iggy down to the three. Then Michigan will try to find three or four bench guys. Those are likely to be Castleton, some combination of DeJulius and Brooks, and then a wing free-for-all between Johns, Nunez, and whatever freshmen enter.

Michigan still has a couple of recruits on their radar, which implies that they're either bracing for attrition or just keeping their bases covered. There are a couple of obvious candidates for a playing time transfer.

[Campredon]

The Matthews conundrum. Matthews finishes his senior year at Michigan with a 98 ORTG on 24% usage. If we set aside Beilein's first year only one player in this era of Michigan basketball is in that ballpark: the junior version of Zak Irvin had a 98 ORTG on 23% usage, and that was the year senior Caris Levert* went out 14 games in. Prior to that Irvin was at 102 on 19% usage. Not since Beilein walked into Tommy Amaker's leftovers has Michigan been forced to rely so heavily on an offensive player that inefficient.

On the other hand, projected top five pick Jarrett Culver looked like just a guy until Michigan pulled Matthews in a desperate bid for some more offense. Whoever picks up Matthews's minutes—Livers will get about 10 as he goes from 20 to 30, but the other 20 are up for grabs—is going to have to significantly outpace Matthews's offense to make up for the inevitable defensive downgrade.

*[I had forgotten what a monster year he was in the midst of when he was struck down. 26% usage, a 127 ORTG, a 33 assist rate and 12 TO rate, shooting 53/45. Headed for national player of the year contention.]

Offseason projects. #1: Post entries. May have to violate the Beilein principle of Never Post Ever and incorporate a few per game just so they're in the practice in case they get a 1-to-5 switch. With Simpson back next year that's almost certain to be the case.

#2: Assuming Iggy and Poole return, incorporating them into more team-based shot creation instead of just iso stuff.

#3: Left Z hook. It's happening. Probably.

Honestly sort of encouraging bit. Iggy was 7/11 from two against the #2 two point D in the country, and one of his misses was a putback that touched every bit of the rim. He did not commit an offensive foul—Texas Tech in fact took no charges. He also had zero assists, as per usual.

Outside of Simpson, who was 0/5, Michigan actually shot 60% from two. Too many turnovers (14) was a problem, but I mean hit some threes and you're at a PPG. I dunno man.

I feel like there should be more to say but there isn't? The only efficient bits of Texas Tech's offense were Moretti and Culver when checked by Not Matthews; that played out about how you'd expect.