Offensive personnel breakdown vs OSU
From a poster on 247:
Here's the personnel breakdown from Saturday:
11 personnel - 58% of all snaps for 348 yards. 62% pass & 38% run.
12 personnel - 31% of all snaps for 45 yards. 71% run & 29% pass.
21 personnel - 6% of all snaps for 2 yards. 20% pass & 80% run.
13 personnel - 4% of all snaps for 5 yards. 67% pass & 33% run.
32 personnel - 1% of all snaps for 1 yards. 100% run (for a TD).
In other words, 42% of our offensive snaps generated only 53 yards. OSU could not stop Michigan when they were in 11 personnel.
There's also this:
Michigan ran the ball between the tackles 20 times Saturday, for 3.2 yards per carry (and that includes a 15-yard QB draw). When they attacked the edges, they averaged 5.9 yards per carry.
— Michael Spath (@MichaelSpathITH) November 26, 2018
November 27th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
You stay out of this.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
I mean, he's not exactly wrong...
November 27th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
No. He's exactly right.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
It's a Michigan tradition to never change things up for a big game against quality opposition—coming up with an entirely new game plan for one opponent is simply unmanly. Bo didn't do it, so why should Harbaugh?
November 27th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
That is exactly our problem. A “michigan man” has to coach a “michigan way.” That means 2 tight ends and fullbacks. Does any other program honor a head coach that never won a national championship, went 5-12 in bowls and 2-10 in the rose bowl? Crazy to me we still play football his way in 2018. Until Michigan moves on from Bo, they wont win anuthing meaningful.
November 27th, 2018 at 7:16 PM ^
Amen!!
November 27th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
Maybe they watched the film from previous years? The 70's perhaps? That would explain so much.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
Troll account is troll account. GTFO with that username.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
give your LB's credit, they found the right gaps after missing them most of the year.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:34 PM ^
I think in a way Michigan was so fucking arrogant in their game plan that they thought they were above looking at OSU film.
To me, OSU's defensive strength is their DTs. We ran right at them most of the day - to little effect.
We also allowed Harrison to run downhill all day when anyone that has watched him knows that if you misdirection him even a little he lives to overrun plays and charge into the wrong gaps.
We made it as easy for Harrison as we make it for Haskins.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Jeebus Jon, don't you get tired of winning this game every year?? What does Michigan need to do to win this game for once? Sacrifice a lamb? Try voodoo/witch doctor stuff?
November 27th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
No buckeyjongross, it's because your psycho fan base and team only care and come to play for one game of the year. Even you fans only come to cheer for that game too. I watch the games. I don't see any of you yups at games in East Lansing or whatever town Penn State plays in. Oh but come time for a game in Ann Arbor, there's every red coat wearing jackass on that side of the Mississippi. Make no mistake, your fan base and team will go back to the abyss. It is your destiny.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
Are you wearing the same blindfold brand as Don Brown when looking for OSU fans? Just 1 of about 100 "fan travel polls" that have the Buckeye traveling better than most.
That being said, you guys were ranked #4 on this list... but it was all about filling your own seats.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
Did Urban really lose to Purdue by 29 points? Seriously? hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaha!
November 27th, 2018 at 3:24 PM ^
Oh hey Doc, you again. You must have woken up some people with your Purdue references. There is a Purdue fan on here now too! He's fun.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:25 PM ^
Do you want another beating? Settle down little Urby.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
Awe. That's cute. We were hoping you guys would do enough to pull off winning the worst division in college football. I guess we'll have to wait.....
November 27th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^
We finished tied for 3rd in the worst division in college football and beat your ass by 29.
Now make a case for the playoffs.
Go!
November 27th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
Pretty sure that's what we did Saturday, lol. We'll continue against Northwestern. Should be fun!
November 27th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
Nope, you can't get destroyed by an average team and still make the playoffs. You should have learned that after last years debacle vs Iowa.
November 27th, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
I suppose we'll see!
November 27th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
We sure will.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:55 PM ^
their checks didn't clear that week they played you guys. . .
November 27th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^
That's why they keep beating us. They'd rather drop a random game to Purdue if it meant beating Michigan. They train for us all winter, and spring, and summer, and fall. They devote time to The Game every week. Their tackling dummies wear our colors. They have a countdown clock that reset for next year right after they finished pounding our asses into mud holes.
We used to do the same thing back when we beat them more often than not.
Next year we need to focus on them like they do us, even if it means dropping a game against PSU or whomever because we were preparing for Ohio.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
Did Urban really lose to Purdue by 29 points? Seriously? hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaha!
November 27th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
It's very true. We did drop that game to Purdue. That being said let us know how the view is from back there.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
You didn't just drop the game. I was 6-6 and destroyed yo ass little Urby.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
Very true. We did lost very badly. It would have been nice to be undefeated and not have to worry about jumping someone to get in to the Playoff, again. I'm sure it will all workout.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
You don't deserve the Yugo Bowl after getting crushed by us.
November 27th, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
Very true. We'll see how deserving we are after the rankings tonight, hah. 6th. Onward and upward.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
My conclusions:
1. The pass game was fucking working. "Pass to set up the run" is a completely valid philosophy if you have a QB (we do) and WRs (we do).
2. Whenever Michigan took a WR off the field, OSU could tee up against a run.
3. Going heavy does not work against an elite DL.
4. Whoever did most of the playcalling (my guess is Pep based on how little Harbaugh has had his nose in a play sheet) did NOT understand how the game was going.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
I am convinced that Michigan's receivers were not doing enough to get open against the OSU secondary. That has been a problem all year long. And that's frustrating because of who the WR coach is, and given the talent level of Collins, Black and People-Jones plus the senior "TE with the untimely dropsies" and a mobile Shea Patterson scrambling around - that's all extremely difficult to defend even on a good day.
Michigan played flat from the get-go in this game. And nothing demonstrated this DeBordian approach better than last Saturday's playcalling by Pep Hamilton.
The good news is that there is no fucking way Harbaugh can look back at the last four losses to Ohio State COMBINED with this recent 23 point shellacking and believe things can continue just as they have.
The defense gave up 62 points because the offense refused to do what it does all year - imposes its will along the line of scrimmage, sustain long drives, convert on 3rd downs, score TDs and dominate TOP.
Harbaugh's traditional manball philosophy can definitely work. But you do need superior OL talent and experience across the board. I think next year Michigan returns everybody across the front 5, and will probably have the best and most experienced OL in the league, if not the country. The thing Michigan missed this on year was TEs that could catch and block reliably. McKeon and Gentry were both consistently subpar in both departments.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
Michigan will probably have the best and most experienced OL in the league, if not the country.
That's laughable. Runyan and first year starter Steuber/Mayfield? The middle should be strong, but Young & Cooper will eat up our tackles.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
The inside runs did not bother me as much as the unwillingness to spread the field and use our match-up advantages at WR (which likely would have opened-up the middle more for runs).
November 27th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
What a miserable coaching failure. OSU's defensive weaknesses coming in were secondary and edge rushing. That's why 3 WR sets and edge running worked well. We should have exploited that weakness until they stopped like they did to our defense.
Fire Pep!
November 27th, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
Yardage is only a distorted part of the story, since the results are affected by the tendency to trot out tight ends and fullbacks in short yardage situations. It's much better to separate out explosiveness and success rate instead of looking at overall yardage or yards per play.
Success rate is defined based on the definition of a "successful" play:
On first down, a successful play gets at least 40% of necessary yards for a first down.
On second down, a successful play gets at least 60% of necessary yards for a first down.
On third and fourth downs, a successful plays 100% of necessary yards for a first down.
Ideally, you'd want to then break down success rate and explosiveness by personnel grouping as well as (bucketed) down and distance.
Then you can point out (made up trend but an example of how this would be useful) "Michigan's 12 package is less successful on 2nd down and long than Michigan's 11 package, but the coaches are using 12 more often"
November 27th, 2018 at 8:57 PM ^
Hello
Friendly Penn State follower here with a sort of answer
I have an Excel chart with down and distance, but here's a start
Note: I stopped looking at plays after Ohio State scored to go up 55-32
Successful plays in the run game by personnel group
Group 11: 7/12
Group 12: 2/14
Group 13: 1/1 (short yardage)
Group 21: 0/2
Group 32: 1/1 (short yardage)
Pass
Group 11: 19/27
Group 12: 3/9
Group 13: 0/3
Group 21: 0/2
Explosive plays
23 yards (11)
20 yards (12)
24 yards (11)
I ran through 81 Michigan plays. Their SPR% on those 81 plays was 40%. Their explosiveness was bad: only 3 plays of 20 or more yards. More than 78% of Michigan’s successful plays were from the 11 grouping of one back and one tight end.
Notes:
- I like Higdon, but he’s definitely on the slower side. Like here; here; and here. Jonathan Taylor might have housed that 24 yarder.
- From group 11, Michigan’s OL seemed to block reasonably well
- Evans still has work to do on his vision; he was responsible for this unsuccessful play out of group 11
- Michigan was absolutely foolish to not run more from group 11. They were getting some of that incompetent OSU LB overreactions that we all know and love.
- This is my least favorite group 12 play of the whole game.
- Of Michigan’s 2 successful run plays from group 12, one was a Patterson zone read keeper for 8 yards on 1st down, while the other was a Higdon short yardage play.
The defense was still definitively the bigger problem for Michigan, but Michigan also needs to run more 11 against Ohio State. They looked decent that way, as it turns out.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:23 PM ^
no breakdown needed... Michigan just fucking sucks.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:34 PM ^
+1, Insightful
November 27th, 2018 at 1:37 PM ^
I'm actually hoping OSU makes the playoffs so you can give up 60+ points to Alabama because they will look at the OSU film and call plays accordingly.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
Ohio State is undefeated against bama in the playoff era.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
I hope you go to the irrelevant bowl and lose to SC
November 27th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
In b4 delete (your account).
November 27th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
I'm going to call the Borens and let them know you missed your time to hang the Christmas lights for the Smith family in Powell you lazy fuck.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:09 PM ^
I hope you kick the meth and get your life together. Fucking loser.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
While there have been a ton of posts about what is wrong with our offense, we scored 39 points in this game. The offense was not the problem. Sure, it would be nice to score more, but the offense was generally ok, considering that we were going up against a defense that, while not statistically great, is made up of 4* and 5* talent.
If Gentry catches 2 of the three balls that he dropped, the whole perception of the offense is different. Admittedly, our offense is far from elite - we are not Oklahoma, nor are we going to be. But, if you score 39 freaking points and have the #1 defense in the country, you should be able to win.
All of that said, here are my observations / criticisms of the offense:
1. While everyone wants to see more passes to Collins, Black and DPJ, if you watch the film, those guys are rarely open unless it is a blown assignment. From my admittedly amateur analysis, these guys really need to improve their route running (and it is possible that the play designs need to be improved), because with their size and speed, I would expect to see more open receivers.
2. Higdon up the middle just WAS NOT working. We ate a number of downs in which we gained 0-2 yards this way (usually on first down, setting us "behind the chains").
3. Do we not have a single "trick play" up our sleeve? No, I don't care about flashy, but sometimes those video game plays hit for good yardage. They can also fire up a team, and when the offense is otherwise struggling, it's a 1-play shot that can move the ball and force a defense to adjust. Philly special, pass by Gentry (who was a former QB), flea flicker - anything.
4. Over the two games leading up to this game, our offense looked stale and vanilla. I figured it was because we were playing Rutgers and Indiana, and that we were saving the good stuff for OSU. Where was the good stuff? We came out with our same Rutgers / Indiana playbook (and energy level). This is not the first time that I have felt that our team came out flat in a big game. Not always (see Sparty this year, PSU this year, Wisco this year), but it seems like when we face an equal or superior opponent, we turtle.
Sorry for the length of the post: tl; dr: the offense was not the reason we lost, but there were a number of things that I didn't love on offense.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
The offense wasn't good, or even OK. Don't fool yourself by looking at a garbage time inflated final score.
Check out how Michigan's offensive stats against OSU compare to their season averages. It's not a pretty comparison.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:01 PM ^
- Part of that is scheme. We don't use tricks to get WRs open like OSU and other teams do. That said, who cares if they're open? Cody White and Felton Davis are almost never open when they catch the ball. MSU just throws back shoulder fades, jump balls, and uses routes to box out coverage. Those guys aren't great at getting separation. Nico was blanketed on his TD. It didn't matter. THAT'S THE POINT.
- Agreed. Would rather use the Rams/Chiefs style of running game and go up the middle when the defense is spread out.
- 100% agree. Creativity in the passing game is almost non-existent.
- Agree again. We need more creativity and match-up specific game planning if we're going to be successful in the modern game.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
Your stats 100% back up the OSU weaknesses. LB's generally over persue or are out of position and have poor lateral movement and makeup speed. The corners are average and tend to lose a high percentage of 50/50 balls and get a lot of PI calls. The teams that gave OSU the most trouble all year were the teams that took advantage of that. I honestly think that OSU would have more trouble with Clemson and Oklahoma than they would Bama, Georgia, or ND for the simple fact that they have the style of offense that could exploit the weaknesses. With that said, I am doubtful that OSU would win any of the above games but the scores would be closer in some than in others.