DavidP814

November 18th, 2018 at 7:14 PM ^

I think OSU was -3.5 against Clemson in 2016.  They were (somehow) 6.5pt underdogs to Oregon in the 2014 championship game, which I believe is the last time the Buckeyes were underdogs.  They were favored in both Oklahoma games (in 16/17)--those are the only games I could see them being underdogs since that championship game against Oregon.

Joined: 07/13/2012

MGoPoints: 5228

greatlakestate

November 18th, 2018 at 6:48 PM ^

OSU will not feel like the underdog. They are like the spoiled rich kids who think they are entitled to all good things even though they’ve done nothing to earn it.  And while positive thinking is a great thing, it can backfire if it takes away your motivation to improve.

Joined: 10/28/2015

MGoPoints: 3245

jpo

November 18th, 2018 at 7:12 PM ^

I was talking to an OSU fan today who desperately wants Urban Liar fired, not because of ethical violations but because the team is underachieving and is no fun to watch. I pointed out that they've been in the playoff conversation every damn year, and losing one game a year makes them an elite program. 

The sense of entitlement of OSU fans drives me bat-shit crazy. They believe they are owed the Big Ten title every year, should soundly beat all comers, have no more than one loss a year, and make the playoff every year. He was offended that they haven't been ranked number one over the last decade as much as Alabama has.

To be fair, he pointed out that the only time OSU was dominating people was the first 3 games of the season, so...

That said, I told him to be careful what he wished for. Alabama went through a fallow period before Satan got there. USC, Texas, FSU, Tennessee, Oregon, LSU, and so forth are all cautionary tales about how wanting to get rid of a successful coach can lead to someone who is much worse. We should know.

He wants Ryan Day, because Urban Meyer "sucks" as a coach. OK then, let's see what happens.

OSU fans are the worst.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 2282

J.

November 18th, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^

I was talking to an OSU fan today

Well that was your first mistake. ;)

To be fair, he pointed out that the only time OSU was dominating people was the first 3 games of the season, so...

Sure, their dominant win vs Oregon State where they allowed 31 points, their beatdown of Rutgers, and the big 12-point win over a then-#15 TCU team which is now sitting at 5-6 on the season and which lost to Kansas.  The same Kansas that fired its coach to hire Les Miles.

Besides, the guy is nutty if he thinks Ryan Day coached that team.  It was Urban's gameplan, Urban ran the meetings, and Urban told Ryan exactly what to do.  Day knew better than to do anything that would get him criticized the next day when Meyer's "yes really I'm suspended" period was over again.

Joined: 03/11/2012

MGoPoints: 13057

jmblue

November 18th, 2018 at 6:44 PM ^

Other than the Snow Bowl (1950), I can’t think of any OSU games that had really bad weather.  The weird weather games (Purdue 1995, Northwestern ‘08, Indiana ‘16) always seem to be a week or two before.

Joined: 11/07/2008

MGoPoints: 102810

CoverZero

November 18th, 2018 at 6:45 PM ^

I dont like it.  Home field advantage is worth 3 pts and the crooked B1G officials are worth 7 points.  Doing the math (10 pts - 3.5 spread) = OSU should be favored by 6.5 pts.

Joined: 08/30/2014

MGoPoints: 14571

Giff4484

November 18th, 2018 at 7:00 PM ^

I love how 11 warriors posters think that Michigan being favored with swing all the motivation their way. Yeah Michigan will just forget 2016, JOK throwing a awful InT last year and every year since 2000.... We want this more than Osu could ever imagine. 

Joined: 08/16/2009

MGoPoints: 2628

ST3

November 18th, 2018 at 8:55 PM ^

But what if sad Urban’s cyst explodes on the sidelines and he literally starts leaking blood from his ears, eyes and nose?

Sorry I went there. I just hate that fucker so much. Go squat some more, Urban. (Seriously, can someone get that man a stool, or at least a cooler?)

Joined: 09/11/2010

MGoPoints: 52530

Ecky Pting

November 18th, 2018 at 7:33 PM ^

Some of the fancy-stats margins:

S&P+:     Michigan -4.2
               (assumes HFA = 3.0)

FPI:        Michigan -1.0
              (assumes HFA = 3.0)

Sagarin: Michigan -0.86
               -3.19 + 2.33 HFA 

Betting lines of course are less of a predictor of game results than they are an estimate of the threshold that will balance the payments between opposing parties and thereby maximizes the juice that accrues to the bookies. Opposing sides may or may not be weighted by wagers of disproportionate sizes and/or volume that were placed on an emotional basis... and if I were a betting man, I would be willing to wager that the bookies have already adjusted for the money they anticipate seeing flow onto the M side of the ledger.

Joined: 09/06/2013

MGoPoints: 4655

J.

November 18th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^

Actually, they're a pretty good predictor of game results; they can't afford not to be.  If there were a markedly better predictor, the crowd would find it, use it, and Vegas would lose.

The problem with trying to balance the money on both sides of the wager -- although they would if they could -- is that you leave yourself open to being picked off by the sharps.  Unless you can get a whale to offset the sharp money, you run the risk of having 80% of the tickets on one side but 80% of the money on the other side.  That's not a good place to be.  Vegas has to accept some amount of imbalance in the betting because they can't afford to give too good of a price to the sharps.

Besides, for every emotional gambler who will bet on Michigan because OSU doesn't look great, there's one who will bet on OSU because Michigan hasn't won in Columbus in a long time.

Joined: 03/11/2012

MGoPoints: 13057

mgobleu

November 18th, 2018 at 9:22 PM ^

I wrote a song about it; liketahearithereitgo!

OHHHH LEEEEETTT'S win the damn game, beat the damn buckeyes, shock the damn shoe, play the damn Wildcats, bust the damn playoffs, beat the damn Tide and revenge the damn Irish, win the damn trophy aaaaaaaand... Fix the damn roads tooooooo

Naw I ain't drunk neither

Joined: 07/02/2008

MGoPoints: 38428

maize-blue

November 18th, 2018 at 9:29 PM ^

There is a rumor that Urban has indicated to the team or at least some of the players that this will be his last UM game. If there is any truth to it then it is a motivation ploy by a desperate man.

Joined: 01/10/2013

MGoPoints: 44662

Michigan4Harbaugh

November 18th, 2018 at 10:30 PM ^

The cooler pooper crowd over at 11W seems to think that somehow they deserve this game because of the Cooper years!! Talk about delusional!! I mean, what the hell are they smoking?!?! I would say the Cooper years have been MORE than made up for From 2001 to present. Saturday is NOT going to end well for ohio. Saturday will be OUR day in the sun. Hopefully for quite some time.

Joined: 01/20/2015

MGoPoints: 4252