Statistical Perspective: The Michigan Defense vs. Everybody
After looking over the game-by-game statistics so far for our Defense, I wondered just how far ahead we are when compared to the rest of the country.
All numbers are from CFBstats.com, ranking 130 FBS teams:
http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/team/defense/split01/category10/sort01.html
For reference, Michigan has played 9 games. Any team in proximity that has played fewer than 9 will be noted otherwise. Furthermore, the given rankings for any team in a given category are for the specific statistic listed.
Yards/Game: 216.2 (#1)
Miami (YTM) comes in second at 264.7 Yards/Game.
*Keeping rutger at or under 54 yards will put our Yards/Game at 200.00 or lower. The only team to fall below 200 Yards/Game in the database is Alabama 2011, but more on that below.
Total Yards Allowed: 1946 (#1)
Southern Miss comes in second at 2260 (only 8 games).
Miami (YTM) is the next-highest P5 at #4 overall at 2382.
*Michigan is the only team out of all 130 to have allowed fewer than 2000 on the season.
Yards/Play: 3.73 (#1)
Clemson comes in second at 4.00 Yards/Play.
*The gap from Michigan to (#2) Clemson, 0.27, is almost the same as the gap from Clemson to (#4) Cincinnati at 0.28.
Passing Yards Allowed: 1101 (#1)
App. State comes in second, at 1258. Miami (YTM) comes in third at 1270 total.
Passing Yards/Game: 122.3 (#1)
Miami (YTM) comes in second at 141.1.
*Although tied for #33 in interceptions (9), we are tied for #3 at TD's allowed through the air (6). We do, however, lead the nation at 47.5 completion percentage.
Rushing Yards Allowed: 845 (#10)
Three teams above us have only played 8 games, so our ranking will likely rise next week.
Rushing Yards/Game: 93.89 (#8)
Not much to say here except that MSU holds opponents to a staggering 71.67 Yards/Game in this category. We ran for 183 yards on them. Taking that out, MSU holds opponents to 57.75 per game. We would need to hold rutger to -267.5 yards on the ground in order to match MSU's defense (not counting their upcoming game against OSU). So not completely out of reach for us.
Historical Comparison
Finally, for historical comparison, the next-closest defense to ours on a Yards/Game basis (in either direction, above or below us) since 2009 is the 2011 Alabama Defense at an unholy 183.6. That is 32.6 Yards/Game below us. Through 13 games, they allowed:
- 938 Rushing Yards
- 1449 Passing Yards
- 3.32 Yards/Play
- 2387 Total Yards
It is almost impossible that we match that production this season, but I am certainly confident that our defense will get even better as this season goes on.
Conclusion
Our Defense is far and away the most dominant in the country, especially against the pass. Any Offensive Coordinator should be sleeping with the lights on for the week before facing us.
If you guys enjoy this, I might do a more in-depth analysis after the season. I might even do a Diary if I am feeling ambitious and particularly bored. If you don't want to see this clogging up the board, then let me know so I have one fewer excuse to use to avoid studying.
All Hail Don Brown. All Hail The King.
November 4th, 2018 at 9:48 PM ^
There's a reasonable chance that Michigan holds rutger under 54 yards.
There's also a chance that Michigan holds rutger to -268 yards rushing.
November 4th, 2018 at 9:52 PM ^
Frankly, I think there is a legitimate chance Michigan holds them under 0 yards.
November 5th, 2018 at 7:58 AM ^
I have noticed that Michigan tends to hold teams to ridiculously low numbers running for almost the entire game. I wonder what the stat line is on how long teams are on lock down when they play us?
I was at the game Saturday and it seemed like PSU had around -3 yards at halftime and was held under 50 yards rushing by the 4th quarter. My point is, I know the chart here has us at # 8 and 10 against the run but actually our opponents are getting garbage yardage at the end of blow-outs or when it doesn't matter. I'm actually surprised to learn we are #1 against the pass but I think the run defense stat is completely misleading.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:01 AM ^
The stat is what the stat is, I just reported it. I've said a few words on garbage time yardage throughout the comments here, and I think you will find that we mostly agree on the topic
November 4th, 2018 at 9:51 PM ^
Personally this is 1 of the best posts i've read in awhile. Thanks OP.
November 4th, 2018 at 9:52 PM ^
Thanks! It's also my first post, so I definitely appreciate the compliment.
November 4th, 2018 at 9:52 PM ^
Oh, We enjoyed it. Please tell me more information about this defense. No stats are too many stats for this defense. Diary entry? Yes please.
November 4th, 2018 at 9:53 PM ^
I'll consider it after both the season and the semester are finished.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:12 PM ^
Scott Bell tweeted his favorite D stat today. Opposing QBs are more likely to throw TDs to UM DBs than to their own WRs. That’s my new favorite stat as well.
November 4th, 2018 at 9:54 PM ^
I love this kind of stuff, so please post more.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:01 PM ^
I'll do my best!
November 4th, 2018 at 11:21 PM ^
Just remember: up in April, shot down in May.
November 4th, 2018 at 9:58 PM ^
This was awesome, thank you sir.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:02 PM ^
You're quite welcome!
November 4th, 2018 at 10:03 PM ^
Great breakdown. D is amazing (that's what she said). ✌ I'll see myself out lol
November 4th, 2018 at 10:04 PM ^
This was quite enjoyable to read - thanks for looking up and presenting the stats!!! Brown has had the #1 defense in 3 of the 4 previous years, IIRC. Dude is good!!
November 4th, 2018 at 10:32 PM ^
Truth is, Alabama had the #1 defense in one of those years that Don Brown is said to have the #1 defense:
Wish it weren't true. But I have to tell the truth. I'm a bigger fan of truth than of Michigan. And that's saying a lot, because that winged helmet means a whole lot to me.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:15 PM ^
I think Michigan held the title outright for the regular season, to be fair. You'll also notice that Alabama and Michigan are actually TIED for #1 in 2016, at 261.8 Yards/Game. Alabama played 15 games to Michigan's 13, so while it may be a 1A and 1B situation, the difference is pretty close.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:24 PM ^
The numbers are cold and hard. Alabama was #1. I wish it wasn't true.
November 5th, 2018 at 7:21 AM ^
Splitting hairs
November 5th, 2018 at 6:18 AM ^
What if you throw in BC?
November 4th, 2018 at 10:10 PM ^
The math isn't right on the rushing defense thing. We don't need to hold Rutgers to -270 yards rushing, unless you think MSU is going to hold OSU to -70 yards rushing.
Through 9 games, MSU has allowed 645 rushing yards, we've allowed 845 rushing yards. So we need to hold Rutgers to 200 less rushing yards than whatever MSU gives up to OSU. Or 100 less over the next 2 weeks. Or whatever. Point is, certainly not impossible.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:14 PM ^
I was saying that we would need to hold rutger to -267.5 Rushing Yards (as our 10th game) in order to match MSU's current number through 9 games, but you are correct that I should have accounted for what they may achieve against OSU. It was more to get a sense of the chasm between our very good run defense and MSU's elite run defense. OSU could run for 10 or 300, but I tend to think that their weak run game this year will be curb stomped by MSU.
My mistake, I'll try to be more clear next time.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:19 PM ^
Still not sure where the -267.5 is coming from. We've allowed 845 rushing yards, MSU has allowed 645. So, it'd be -200 yards if anything? But if it was -200 yards, we'd have allowed 645 through 10 games vs. 645 through 9. Really, if what we're talking about is getting M to the level MSU is currently at, the number should be -128.33 yards. Then we'd be giving up the ~71.67 that they are currently giving up.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^
This is why I am a law student, not a math student. If I could edit the post and give you credit, I would.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:27 PM ^
Hahaha, I mean, the general point stands. Don Brown is the king of defensive coordinators.
I imagine we're very similar, since I run to cfbstats every Sunday morning and look at all of these things too.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:35 PM ^
No problem, I appreciate the correction. It helps me get better for next time.
My favorite Sunday activity is replaying the game on YouTube to watch all of the defensive snaps so I can try to absorb the genius being displayed before my eyes.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:36 PM ^
Ditto.
Another fun stat btw, Shea is now #1 in the Big Ten in QBR at 81.0. Haskins is #2 at 80.9.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:47 PM ^
Great stat, and I think it makes sense. Haskins and the OSU passing game are being padded by poor defenses and the necessity to throw the ball with no run game, IMO. Haskins had a 33.1 QBR against PSU, while Patterson had an 81.3. Patterson had almost half as many passes, attempts, and yards as Haskins, but only 6.9 YPA to Patterson's 8.9. Caveats of field, scheme, and whatnot, but I don't buy that Haskins is as great as everyone in the media thinks, mainly because their entire offense is designed around his arm.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:55 PM ^
Eh. Don’t beat yourself up. MSU will eat up the Buckeyes’ awful run game and make it hard catch them anyway, even if that HAD been your intent in your analysis. Nice work, junior. I see a great future for you in the diarist biz.
November 5th, 2018 at 12:38 AM ^
Thanks, boss. I sure hope I can get to that level one day, but for now I’ll stick to mid-level work like this and hone my craft.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^
After watching Bama destroy LSU's offense I am wondering how they are not closer than Miami (YTM) to Michigan in YPG allowed. Were they sleepwalking through the first 8 games on defense? Caveat is perhaps LSU's offense is bad but are they really that bad? And they did it on the road at night at LSU which is a really tough environment, perhaps the toughest in the country.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:26 PM ^
I think it's more that they haven't had to. Arkansas put up like 31 on them, probably because Bama had their 4th stringers in cause they had already won the game by 30+.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:32 PM ^
Alabama comes in at 295.4 Yards/Game, good enough for #11. LSU only put up 184 yards of offense, so Bama improved from that game. I really believe that LSU's offense is actually that bad, so I don't know if it matters that the game was on the road at night. That game was more about Alabama's offense vs. LSU's defense anyway. If I had to guess, I would say that Alabama gave up a bunch of meaningless yards this year via putting in second and third string defenders after being up on every team 28-0 after the first quarter.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:36 PM ^
When is Nick Saban gonna go away? When does senility kick in nowadays?
November 4th, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^
Ask Bill Snyder.
EDIT: This is a bit of a low blow, and I feel slightly bad about it, but the fan base over there seems to agree to a certain extent.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:36 PM ^
LSU is a pretty mediocre offense in all of college football, and one of the worst in the SEC, ranking 93rd in total offensive yards per game at 363. And that was after averaging just over 300 yards in their last two games coming into play against Alabama which had ranked 1st in total offense and 10th in total defense in yards allowed. There is no doubt that Alabama crushed the Tigers and made their offense look pretty ineffective, but they don't move the ball or score that well against anyone.
Consider that Nebraska and Ohio State are averaging 547 and 469 yards respectively per game, which beats Michigan's 52nd ranked average of 418 yards per game. Consider that ND averages 450 yards in total offense per game ranking 26th in the nation, but was outgained by Michigan in their win over the Wolverines, when each managed just over 300 yards.
If you really want to look at how Michigan's defense shines, compare the average performance of their opponent in yards gained per game and the amount they earned when Michigan played them. That will give a better idea of Michigan defensive dominance.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
Some of the credit to the stellar play of our defense goes to the much improved play of our offense.
Time of possession for us has been a beast that feeds itself.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:25 PM ^
Shouldn't offensive coordinators be sleeping with game film on, and not only lights on, before they face Don Brown? Maybe they should hire Dan Enos as their QB/Associate Head coach... oh, one guy already did that. Hope Dan Enos isn't the difference in who wins the National Championship this year. That would fucking suck!
November 5th, 2018 at 9:32 AM ^
If we lose to Alabama it will not be because of Dan Enos, I promise.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:26 PM ^
What do you guys think is the cause for Don Brown's poor run defense?
November 4th, 2018 at 10:33 PM ^
Don Brown just needs to try harder.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
Rashan Gary injury.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:37 PM ^
A) Garbage time yardage. So much garbage time yardage.
B) Passing D holding opposing QBs to 5.0 YPA and 24.6 Attempts/Game, necessitating the run, which benefits from tight man coverage by the D.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:26 PM ^
Every great defense has garbage time yards, not just Michigan.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:39 PM ^
The guy just can't coach defense. Thought that was pretty obvious at this point.
November 4th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
He needs to get more sleep.
November 5th, 2018 at 7:03 AM ^
Execution
November 4th, 2018 at 10:26 PM ^
Nice work, would read again.
November 4th, 2018 at 11:05 PM ^
Thanks!