Bill Connelly: "Michigan State was lucky as hell...they were lucky as hell last night"
The quote is from Bill C's podcast Podcast Ain't Played Nobody about MSU's win Saturday against PSU.
The quote is mostly related to MSU's turnover luck. Michigan State fumbled the ball 4 times and recovered them all. PSU had a potential pick on the game just dropped by a CB. According to Bill, when taking into account the amount of fumbles and batted balls PSU's defense had, MSU was expected to turn the ball over 5.5 times against PSU. They turned it over once. Each turnover is worth around 5 points, so turnover luck gained MSU around 20-21 points.
The following link is a Bill C post detailing a bunch of advanced stats box score numbers on all the games from this weekend (link). Some notables from the link:
- Another Bill C quote on MSU: "the Spartans enjoyed about a 20- to 21-point boost thanks to turnovers luck... I swear, that happens every single time Sparty plays PSU, Michigan, or Ohio State, doesn’t it..."
- MSU's post game win expectancy was 26%.
- OSU's post game win expectancy was 66%.
- Michigan's post game win expectancy was 86%.
- Wisconsin had one of the best 5 points per scoring opportunity margins this week. Basically this means advanced numbers say Michigan should have scored more based on the amount of scoring opportunities we had but we didn't because we failed to finish drives. So not only were we not lucky, based on the numbers this game should have been an even bigger blowout.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
"This quarter I flipped one hundred times landed on heads 63 times!! This is not chance, the quarter knows what it's doing!"
October 15th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^
No, this is like flipping a coin and MSU saying 'heads I win, tails you lose' and then everyone wondering why they lost.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
Fumbling the ball and then recovering it is not "creat[ing] opportunities and then capitalizing on them." It's fucking up and getting lucky. Throwing a pass to a defensive back and having him drop it is not creating or capitalizing on opportunities either. It's also fucking up and getting lucky.
I am not one to deny that MSU has had good teams and earned their success in past seasons. But this year's MSU is not a good team. if they are so good at creating and capitalizing on opportunities, whey didn't they do that against Arizona State? Why didn't they create and capitalize on opportunities against Northwestern?
They got lucky at Penn State. I don't expect they'll be in a position for luck to matter this coming weekend.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
Hopefully ... HOPEFULLY ... they had their last-minute, law-of-averages, laws-of-physics defying win Saturday and that is all the football gods will allow them this season.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
Except they r in a position of luck every time they play Michigan, this game will be close, state will throw everything and he kitchen sink to win this game so harbaugh better open his entire playbook because harbaugh CAN NOT Lose this game
October 15th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
I think this misses the point. Yes, they got a few breaks, but this was a game that people were predicting that they were going to get obliterated. They were a two touchdown underdog. Nobody gave them a shot to compete (me excluded, check the posting history for evidence if need be). But the entire game they were every bit the equal of Penn State. It was not a situation where they got really short fields because Penn State fumbled or threw pick deep in their zone. (In fact, to counter Connelly, the one time that MSU did force a clear fumble the refs ruled it down and did not review it). They went head up with PSU, and if there were no rankings by the team names you would not have known who the favorite was, or why. They punted the ball with 1:50 seconds remaining, down 3. That is how confident they were that Penn State could not get 10 yards on them. That is saying something.
It doesn't have anything to do with how this Michigan game will turn out, but I watched the entire MSU v. PSU game and never one time did I say to myself "wow, Michigan State is getting so lucky here I can't believe it."
I think people got carried away with the "MSU sucks" narrative, fueled by their own Mike Valenti. They lost a bad game to a Northwestern game, that's it. It happens. We nearly lost to Northwestern too. I think Michigan v. Michigan State is a really good BIG matchup against two good BIG teams that I think Michigan will win. I think any other narrative is hyperbole and/or unsupported.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^
MSU and Penn State have pretty comparable talent. MSU has the better coach, but Penn State was the healthier team and was playing at home. So it was a pretty even matchup. When two pretty evenly-matched teams square off, there's usually a handful of key plays that wind up deciding the game. According to Connelly, MSU recovered four of its own fumbles, plus had Penn State drop an INT. Lose just one of those five turnover opportunities, and Penn State likely wins. When the ball is bouncing on the ground or fluttering in the secondary, it's pretty much random chance who comes up with it. It's fair to say MSU was lucky because they went 5/5 on those occurrences.
I don't see how people's expectations about that game is relevant to the question of whether MSU got lucky. I realize people were expecting MSU to get obliterated--honestly I hadn't given that game any thought beforehand, and don't know what I would have said if anyone had asked me. But as badly as State had been playing up to that game, it wasn't because of some gross talent disparity. They just didn't seem to have their shit together for whatever reason. Okay, so they got their shit together enough to hold their own against Penn State. Good for them. But they still needed a bunch of lucky breaks to actually win that game.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^
"But this years MSU team is not a good team."
That is taken directly from your post above.
And then "MSU and Penn State have pretty comparable talent. MSU has the better coach."
These really can't be reconciled.
People are twisting themselves in pretzels right now for taeks about Michigan and Michigan State. But the reality is that nothing has changed from the beginning of the season. Both are formidable teams with conference title aspirations. MSU made it especially tough on themselves by playing really poorly against NW, but also has the most impressive win of either team to date. This will be a big win for one program and a notable setback for the other.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
MSU is not a good team this year because we are seven games into the season and they have shown an inability to consistently execute at a sufficiently high level to defeat their opponents. it doesn't mean they don't have talent on the roster, or that they aren't a dangerous team who can get their shit together for one week.
You are arguing with me over the fact that I think MSU "got lucky" when they recovered four of their own fumbles and had Penn State drop a game-sealing interception, and I'm the one twisting myself into a pretzel? Whatever.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
I just don't think they got "lucky" by typical standards of what constitutes luck.
I'm not twisting myself up. I think they were just better than Penn State, and that few people expected that.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
Actually, they can be reconciled . . . if you think that neither PSU nor MSU is very good.
October 15th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^
Then Ohio State isn't very good either. So what is the point here?
October 15th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
Why didn't they create and capitalize on opportunities against Northwestern?
Because they spent 25% of that week prepping for Michigan.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
Saint_in_Blue,
This blog doesn't want to hear what you said, even though you're right. They want to hear Michigan St is lucky. And, the refs rob Michigan.
You'll get upvotes talking like that.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
Regression to the mean is a beautiful thing. 69-36-5 all time
Luck can only get you so far. 3-9 = regression to the mean
The better team and the historically better team are one and the same.
Go blue on Saturday.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^
I appreciate the sentiment but this is such terrible appropriation of statistics that it bottles the mind
October 15th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
Lol, true and it successfully bottled your mind with one perusal.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
MSU definitely caught its share of breaks in that game but good Lord, PSU played like crap. So many chances to put that away and they couldn't do it. They looked like they weren't focused at all. Looks like ol' James Franklin has a way to go before turning his "good" program into an "elite" one (ha ha!)
Michigan MUST NOT commit stupid penalties or turn the ball over Saturday. That's how MSU hangs around in so many of these slugfests in which they are underdogs. If the Wolverines play a good, clean game they should be able to put MSU away.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^
McSorely had a 6'5" TE wide open by like 15 yards, standing still, and overthrew him by at least 5 feet...
I had to change the channel at that point. Such garbage play from them.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
Oh but come on, the media is all over Trace McSorely, the Heisman, and a possible 1st round pick.
Anyway, back to reality.
I saw how he played in the Rose Bowl. He sorta epitomizes Penn St under James Franklin---lots of talent and emotion, but bad in the clutch.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
That’s part of their “luck” though. PSU playing like crap. OSU being coached to a loss by Meyer. They catch teams at the right time, it’s the luck of the draw. Nothing they’ve done in particular to win.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
It was a somewhat ugly game and neither team looked like world beaters. I agree regarding PSU. I don't think it was so much that MSU played above their heads as PSU just looked lethargic.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
"Michigan MUST NOT commit stupid penalties" [Mr Grainger]
Michigan has committed very few stupid penalties this year. Most penalties are judgment calls, and we had quite a few go against us (but not many against Wisconsin). If you are playing hard (you know, blocking or defending Felton Davis), then there will be potential penalty calls. These will not be stupid penalties but rather the cost of playing on the road. Have to play through them.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
You're very correct, but I mean no stupid after-the-whistle, letting them get in your head business that draws a 15-yard personal foul. Harbaugh needs to hammer that home this week.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
Totally agree. Someone needs to slip something into Devin Bush's water bottle to chill him out before he comes out all tweaked up to take someone's head off. A targeting out of him would be real trouble. He's been incredible this year, but he has been yapping about the MSU game for months now.
If he plays under control, he could very well dominate this game. Their OLs aren't nearly good enough to keep him off their playmakers.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
Damnit Bill you’re going to provoke them into bringing two chips each to the table this week.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^
I'm convinced Dantonio has sold his soul to some nefarious entity. MSU has barely been playing above their historical mean of 'mediocre' for the majority of his tenure and he still somehow winds up winning 10 games every other year.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
It's absolutely confounding, the shit they get away with just seems impossible, but they keep doing it.
Here's to hoping for a brutal end to their lucky streak on Saturday.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
at some point you create your own luck. monsoon, crazy weather, lucky bounces... state continues to show up in big games.
this is just more disrepkt
October 15th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
and not show up in regular games. This points to a lack of depth, perhaps. They can win, but not consistently.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
The team will have to be prepared for some unlucky penalty on a crucial 3rd down, or crazy tip/near interception that falls right into one of MSU's receivers hands, or any other possible scenario that Sparty will somehow fall ass-backward into and to not let those plays be the difference in the game.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^
A huge key to victory for Michigan is to come out guns blazing on both sides of the ball and get an early 10 to 14 point lead. MSU will probably win the toss because of aforementioned luck. They will probably kick off to start the game. We need to turn that first drive into points, preferably 7 points. As others have stated we cannot let them hang around within one score.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
They really are damn lucky against PSU, OSU, and us. Weather, turnovers, dropped non-turnovers, scheduling, etc. Also they are tremendously lucky not to have suffered worse from the Nassar situation. I guess that's partly not so much luck as it is people/media just not caring about their fleabag university.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
Bill Connelly also posted this article about our win against Wisconsin: Almost nobody beats Wisconsin like Michigan just did. It is a great read.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
This deserves its own thread.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
michigan hasn't scored that many points against wisconsin since 1990. so, yes ,kind of a big deal.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
Teams just don't take MSU serious, hence they don't play up to a certain level. Then Sharty squeaks out a win. Happens over and over.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
MSU always seems to be underwhelming on paper, from player talent level to their statistics. They're probably the most unremarkable successful program of the past 10 years. They play boring Tressel ball. They rarely crush inferior opponents. And they rarely lose by more than a score or two. Opposing teams not named Michigan probably find it difficult to get up for the game. But they're well coached. Combine these things and you have recipes for upsets.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
"MSU always seems to be underwhelming on paper, from player talent level to their statistics. They're probably the most unremarkable successful program of the past 10 years."
Dantonio has used that lack of "respect" compared to sexier or bluer-blooded programs like UM, OSU, and PSU to his advantage in big games year after year. He basically rope-a-dopes teams into playing his style of ball, which is to slow the game down into a grinding defensive game if he can.If the score is close in the 4th, he's pretty good at game management to preserve his chances, but isn't afraid to gamble in key situations, either.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Not to mention Lewerke was 24/52 and averaged 5.0 ypc. Oh well, now they put three trick plays out there on tape that they couldn't save for UM. Rather have them fluke it out against the team a week before they play Michigan. Just gotta trust the staff will have them prepared.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:29 AM ^
I really hope Patterson gets it together for MSU. It seems like he held onto the ball too long and missed a lot of passes against a bad secondary. MSU's secondary is worse, but their defensive line is very good. They're gonna need to throw effectively.
Of course we all said that heading into Wisconsin so who knows anything?
October 15th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
Penn State could not throw it a lick against MSU.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
this x100000000
ball security maybe my highest worry saturday. shea been loose with the ball as a runner, wisco had two passes hit their hands and dropped (forced passes vs hitting check downs). Higdon fumble.
we aren't gonna get the bounces in this game, we never do. need to limit our exposure.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
They did? When? Higdon fumble?
October 15th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
higdon fumbled right before the roughing the snapper play (ball went out of bounds) will look back at when the passes were when not at work
October 15th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
The safety had a huge hit where he put his helmet right on the ball and sent it flying out of bounds. Higdon should have went inside but tried to bounce outside.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
MSU is a very respektabal football team, not just lucky, they knew they were going to win that game because they've been disrespekted and depleted before and came out on top. Like I said very respekted and reputable football team and coaches, not lucky. Ever. See 2015 Michigan game as proof of not lucky.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
The Wisconsin game finished 38-13 but it felt like 48-7.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
He's right Sharty was lucky as hell.
On a separate note I was listening to secfans podcast on the M-W game and their computer model (published before the game), predicted something like 40-13 score or w/e...I was pretty stunned when I saw that. Much of what they covered in their podcast came about...definitely going to be paying more attention to these guys.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
As a side note, look at the advertisement that popped up on MY MGOBLOG feed this morning as I was perusing the Board for articles. What the ever loving hell is going on with our advertising dollars????
