Relevant Big Ten Teams vs. Ranked Road Opponents since 2007
To follow-up on my hit post below, I wanted to present a little more info that shows how rare a major win over a ranked opponent truly is for most teams. I looked at our main rivals in chasing Ohio State (as they were going to be the obvious outlier) to see how they had fared since 2007 against teams that finished the season ranked.
Michigan State: 2-11
Michigan State's two wins both came in 2015. One, as we all know, came after one of the luckiest plays in college football history went their way against Michigan. The other was against Ohio State when Urban Meyer decided that Ezekiel Elliot was good at football for a night.
Penn State: 3-15
Had one truly impressive road win: 2008 against a good Ohio State team 13-6. They beat Northwestern in 2017 and surprised Wisconsin in 2013.
Wisconsin: 0-12
Wisconsin has not beaten a single team that finished the season ranked on the road since 2007.
This is something that just does not happen very often for most teams. These are three very successful programs and between them they have two elite wins on the road (2008 Penn State vs. Ohio State and 2015 Michigan State vs. Ohio State) as the others were either the result of absolute craziness or were against good, not elite teams.
September 5th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^
Yeah, but he left out OSU's record. That's the one that should really give you an idea of where the Michigan program is opposed to the OSU program.
September 5th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
We are in chasing pack. Ohio State is in their own league right now because of the stability provided from Tressel+Meyer.
Meyer is not some infallible coach on his own. Florida fell a part on his watch and still hasn't recovered. He inherited a top notch situation at Ohio State. He stepped right into years of quality recruiting, a pillow soft schedule for his first 2 years and a QB tailored to his offense.
The other teams all have their own issues. Michigan and the end of the Lloyd era recruiting + 3 coaching changes. Penn State and the end of Paterno. Michigan State and Wisconsin don't have the same recruiting ability. That's why a more accurate comparison leaves out OSU at the moment.
It hurts to say, but OSU is the elite team in the Big Ten. It's up to Michigan to catch them. I just don't think they are as far off as some other people.
September 5th, 2018 at 8:44 AM ^
Northwestern will be ranked when we go there at the end of the month. That's where this streak ends.
September 5th, 2018 at 9:01 AM ^
NU guaranteed to be ranked? Never underestimate their ability to lose to a cupcake
September 5th, 2018 at 8:55 AM ^
Context is important. Nice work.
September 5th, 2018 at 8:58 AM ^
Please send this to SI, ESPN, Sporting News, Detroit News, Free Press, AP......
September 5th, 2018 at 9:07 AM ^
so you're telling me we go 9-3 maybe 8-4 this year?
Nothing changed from the preseason, we got beat by a team that was more than likely always going to beat us. 5 toss up games and were already in the hole 1. Have to imagine something goes our way in the next 4, split them 2 and 2.
September 5th, 2018 at 9:20 AM ^
My thoughts: If Michigan is as good as their talent would suggest, to win the Big Ten they probably need one of Michigan State or Ohio State to not be as good as advertised as its very difficult to win two road games against high level competition. I could easily see Michigan State being that team (but who knows, perhaps Michigan is that team this year thanks to the tackle situation). Then you just need to hold serve at home, which most ranked teams do and get that one fortunate road win.
September 5th, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^
I also feel like we should just luck ourselves into a win in one of these games.
September 5th, 2018 at 9:09 AM ^
Wow, I love data, and you for giving us hope!
September 5th, 2018 at 9:09 AM ^
Amen brother!
September 5th, 2018 at 9:22 AM ^
While I do appreciate the perspective this assessment provides, considering the fact we're staring down the barrel of two more road games against what are certain to be ranked teams, I hate this summary.
September 5th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^
The difference for me is that these three teams were able to win multiple conference titles since 2007.
September 5th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
It's depressing looking at PSU. They were on literal probation for a few years, lost scholarships, and they still have better numbers than us over the past decade.
I'm sure this was meant to provide context, but it just helps show how far this program has fallen.
September 5th, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^
I'm going to use your own words here:
These are three very successful programs and between them they have two elite wins on the road (2008 Penn State vs. Ohio State and 2015 Michigan State vs. Ohio State) as the others were either the result of absolute craziness or were against good, not elite teams.
You have basically proven that our rivals can never beat elite teams on the road, but can occasionally beat good teams on the road.
MIchigan can do neither.
September 5th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
I think it suggests its an aberration, not some flaw unique to Michigan.
Blake O'Neill fumbles a punt, Michigan State gets a road win despite being outplayed to the point where they had lost if a good player completes his most basic skill.
Ohio State gets a drive extended by a PI call to tie a game, Michigan has the same exact type of play not called in their favor forcing them to kick a field goal in OT. Ohio State gets the ball and on third down Curtis Samuel runs crazily in the backfield for 15 seconds before ending up close to a first down and then JT Barrett mayyyyyyyybe gets that first down and Michigan has a road loss.
Is that on Harbaugh? On the players? Or is it just the proof that it generally takes something extraordinary to win a game like that on the road?
September 5th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
Yup. Winning on the road against top teams is hard... what a shocker. It’s a stat that is cherry picked out for the media and our Rivals to hate, and we’re eating it up. Also, MSU is 12 and 12 in their last 24 games.
September 5th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
Thoughtful analysis & insight
Thanks
September 5th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
Good post OP. +1
September 5th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
The OP's statistics are misleading. When the universal media references the 0-17 record in our last 17 games against ranked opponents on the road, they're talking about when we played them, not where they finished at the end of bowl season. Where they end in January is irrelevant to their ranking the night of the game in question.
That being said, the stats would look like this:
Michigan State: 6-10
Additional wins in 2010 @ UM, 2012 @ Wisc, 2016 @ ND, and 2017 @ UM
Penn State: 2-12
Removing win against NW
Wisconsin: 4-8
Additional wins in 2008 @ Fresno St, 2010 @ Iowa, 2013 @ Minnesota, and 2016 @ MSU
September 5th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
This is changing the stat from what is reported. Its games against teams ranked at the time. The problem is the narrative that Michigan can't win the "big" game. Big games require the team to be ranked at the time. Since 2007 Wisconsin has 5 big ten championships, MSU has 3 and PSU has 2 because they've managed to win the big game every once in a while.
Yes its hard to win a ranked game on the road but the other teams have managed to do it in the years they have had their best teams. Michigan hasn't done it yet under Harbaugh and hasn't done it since 2007 which is why we don't have big ten championships.
September 5th, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
No how do we spread this across mass media outlets
September 5th, 2018 at 6:17 PM ^
FALSE FACT!!! Wisconsin won its last game and 3 of the last 4 against ranked foes on the road! And the 3 of those 4 opponents were ranked in the top 10. They have won others as well in the past 12 outings. They beat Miami at Miami. They beat Michigan St at Michigan St. They beat Minnesota at Minnesota. The only loss in the past 4 was at #4 Michigan by 7.
Badgers have also won multiple others vs. ranked on the road in the past 12 (or 17 outings).
This false fact has managed to spread from here onto twitter, so good job there.
I do like Michigan's chances to end that streak soon.
September 6th, 2018 at 8:09 AM ^
Don't include bowl games, which Miami was a bowl game. In addition, the BIG West is nothing to write home about. In addition to addition, if you played OSU regularly you would have lost. In addition to addition to addition, you played OSU a few times in the BIG championship game and we all know what happened there.
September 6th, 2018 at 8:00 AM ^
Thanks for bringing some sanity to this discussion and topic. I am curious to know how other conferences fare, in particular the SEC as they have to face a similar team to OSU in Alabama.
September 6th, 2018 at 7:10 PM ^
This was good info. Feel a little better.
September 7th, 2018 at 9:34 PM ^
i am not sure why this is even a thing.
every single team undergoes the same scrutiny...People get upset with this notion of "ranked at the time of the game"...but why?
every single other team is judged using that exact same qualification.
no other team in CFB is 0-17 on the road playing a team that is ranked at the time of the game. That is a statement of fact.
its damn weird seeing people latch onto that other statistics in order to change those facts... Guys like Zordich would laugh at the logic. Beat a damn ranked team on the road and then they won't have to hear that stat anymore