Bowl Outlook Very Simple
After Saturday, the bowl picture for Michigan is extremely simple. Eligible B1G teams:
Nebraska | [11-2] or [10-3] pending B1G title game |
Northwestern | 9-3 |
Michigan | 8-4 |
Wisconsin | [8-5] or [7-6] pending B1G title game |
Minnesota | 6-6 |
Michigan State | 6-6 |
Purdue | 6 |
If Nebraska beats the Badgers next weekend, they go to the Rose Bowl, and the Capital One Bowl takes 8-4 Michigan (who hasn't played there since the 2007 season) over 9-3 Northwestern and 7-6 Wisconsin.
If Wisconsin beats the Cornhuskers, Wisconsin to the Rose, Nebraska at 10-3 gets the Capital One nod over Michigan, and we play in the Outback Bowl for the first time since the 2002 season.
November 25th, 2012 at 9:57 PM ^
And we should just kind of trust you on this?
You realize that bowls aren't obligated to take the eligible team with the best record, right?
November 25th, 2012 at 10:01 PM ^
He has a bowl taking Michigan over Northwestern, which has a better record than us. So I think that fact is accounted for, no? Basically, we'll be the second team taken out of the B1G unless Wisconsin upsets Nebraska. Which all sounds about right to me.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:06 PM ^
1. Good point.
2. Even with a Wisconsin win, I don't think it's obvious that the Capital One Bowl takes Nebraska over us. Our credentials would be similar enough that it's probably a ticket sales question. Some of the possible matchups involving Michigan (e.g. Michigan-LSU) would be awfully tempting.
For those interested, there are surprisingly detailed rules about which bowls can select which teams:
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/39509/reviewing-b1gs-bowl-sele…
November 25th, 2012 at 10:08 PM ^
Yeah, not a given, given Nebr would be coming off a loss... but, hell, so are we, we lost to Nebr, and Nebr is considered to travel quite well during the bowl season, too.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:19 PM ^
Nebraska definitely travels well, but keep in mind that they were in the Capital One Bowl last season. Would that fan base travel down there two years in a row? I'm sure that the Capital One folks are thinking about these kinds of things. In other words, I don't buy that this is quite as "simple" as the OP suggests.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:26 PM ^
Have you ever spent NYD in Nebraska? If there were a bowl game in Alligator Point, FL, 40K bugeaters would be there.
November 26th, 2012 at 8:56 AM ^
There are often excellent sales at Herbergers on NYD!
Seriously, though, even among those dedicated fans, there is griping if the bowl venue is the same year after year. In the 80s and 90s Nebraskans got really effing sick of the Orange Bowl.
November 26th, 2012 at 10:46 AM ^
Even though I live in the great playground next door, I'm actually quite fond of Nebraska, both the outdoor recreation there and the people. I have spent NYD there--it's a great day to be out hunting pheasants. Tens of thousands of bugeaters are in my neighborhood all summer long (have you been to Nebraska in August?). This is getting OT, but I was quite happy to see them join the B1G, pull me a little closer back toward actual B1G country and of the available possibilities--i.e., not us this year--wouldn't mind seeing them win the B1G CG and get a legit trip to the Rose.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:30 PM ^
... amazingly. I live in Seattle and last year when they played UW, it was a sea of red. It was as if the entire state was here, and they were so damn friendly.
November 30th, 2012 at 2:43 PM ^
are loyal as they are polite. There is nothing in the entire state to root for. Nebraska is a good school, with a very good overall varsity sports program and even better fan base.
However, Michigan is the better choice: better ticket sales, better TV viewership, better overall brand. It is close but Im sure they will take us over Nebraska. But I could be totally, 100% wrong too.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:25 PM ^
2. Even with a Wisconsin win, I don't think it's obvious that the Capital One Bowl takes Nebraska over us.
The link you gave pointed out that the C1(trus) can't take a team with two fewer wins than another eligible one. (A fairly common rule in bowl affiliation these days.) Nebraska is essentially locked into falling no further than the C1(trus.)
November 25th, 2012 at 10:41 PM ^
You're right. Sorry, I misread that.
In fact, the Capital One Bowl's Twitter account put out a message like this to make that exact point.
After all of that, I agree with the OP's conclusion.
November 26th, 2012 at 10:51 AM ^
the rule is that they couldn't take a team with more than one less win OR loss, so they could theoretically take an 8-4 Michigan over a 10-3 Nebraska if they wanted to (not like they will). The C1 bowl twitter made this clear aftrer verifying with the B1G.
November 26th, 2012 at 11:03 AM ^
They were mistaken. This is from this morning
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/66327/clarifying-capital-one-o…
"Therefore, if Nebraska loses to Wisconsin in Saturday's Big Ten championship game, the Capital One Bowl could only select Nebraska (10-3) or Northwestern (9-3). Michigan would not be eligible because it has two more losses than Nebraska.
This is what we thought initially, but the Capital One Bowl briefly created some confusion Sunday on Twitter but eventually cleared it up. "
November 25th, 2012 at 10:41 PM ^
Bowls probably won't take the same team twice, I think if it comes to a 10-3 Nebraska or 8-4 Michigan, Capital One goes with Michigan because we haven't been there since 2007.
November 26th, 2012 at 1:03 AM ^
Ryan Field was dominated by a sea of red.
Apparently a large amount of Cornhusker fans bought Northwestern season tickets at the beginning of the year. Season ticket holders get priority when purchasing general admission tickets, so one season-ticket holding Cornhusker was about to buy multiple tickets for all their friends. The Nebraska-Northwestern game was soldout before the tickets were even available to the public.
So, I think it's safe to say that Nebraska travels as well as any major program in the NCAA.
November 26th, 2012 at 11:19 AM ^
Ryan Field is always dominated by the opposing team's fans if the opposing team is any good. For Michigan-Northwestern games there, the Michigan contingent is much louder and more visible than the Northwestern contingent.
November 26th, 2012 at 1:22 PM ^
Sports radio talk hosts in the Chicago area were absolutely livid about it the next day. A lot of fans were calling for the Northwestern athletic department to revise their season ticket policies. When they panned over Ryan Field the only purple to be found was the Northwestern student section, and even that looked smaller than normal.
November 30th, 2012 at 1:05 PM ^
It's just supply and demand. Chicago is full of alumni and fans of pretty much every B1G school. For many (including me) the Northwestern game is the easiest way to see your team. There's not much the athletic department can do if people are willing to pay lots of money to buy tickets from students.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:15 PM ^
The overall record is irrelevant, what matters is the conference record. In the conference, Michigan is 6-2 and Northwestern is 5-3. Michigan is ahead of Northwestern in what matters.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:27 PM ^
Hmmm.... actually, the write-up at the ESPN link cited above says exactly the opposite (that is, overall records are the only relevant record, not conference):
"...except a team that has two fewer wins or two more losses (in all games) than another eligible team..."
November 25th, 2012 at 11:53 PM ^
When I replied, I was replying to a comment about why is Northwestern behind Michigan. I was explaining that when it comes to how teams are sorted initially, it is by conference record and conference standing. Then if there are some ties, overall record is used. Sorry for the confusion, but the comment I was replying to must have been deleted.
November 25th, 2012 at 9:56 PM ^
Please, no wisconsin in their 3rd straight rose bowl
November 25th, 2012 at 9:58 PM ^
I'd rather go to the outback and hope for a more favorable matchup than TA&M or LSU tbh... and I don't want Nebraska winning the conference just yet.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:05 PM ^
And I also wouldn't mind a shot at the 'Old Ball Coach'. I gotta say, without Lattimore, I think we have a decent shot at beating South Carolina. Other than the obvious, the match up with LSU would be interesting. I'm a true optimist but I want NOTHING to do with playing Texas A&M. Hail!
November 26th, 2012 at 9:16 AM ^
Jadaveon (sp?) Clowney is like Auburn's Nick Fairley from a couple of seasons back, except better. USC (yes, they actually call themselves that) is not the school you look at in the ESS EEE SEE East and say "Oh, yeah...I want to put my already-injured dilithium-powered senior QB on the field against those guys."
November 25th, 2012 at 10:06 PM ^
I can live with the Huskers winning the conference. It's a better outcome than, say, new-member-to-be Rutgers taking it in the shortpants, as they did yesterday vs. Pitt.
I'd like to see us play TAMU, LSU or UGA. Why not? If we get stomped, we get stomped, but let's get on the field against a really good team rather than a really easy W.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:02 PM ^
November 25th, 2012 at 10:05 PM ^
TBH I think sending Wisconsin as a sacrificial lamb to the Rose Bowl might actually help us a little bit. Everyone else moves down in their bowl matchup because of Nebraska and that creates more oportunities to win. Every team will definitely still be an underdog in every game but not as badly as it will be if Nebraska goes to the Rose.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:19 PM ^
While this is true, many of the B1G-SEC matchups will be against top-10 or top-12 teams. The conference will be an underdog in most if not all of them anyway, so what does it matter if Northwestern plays Georgia or LSU vs. Nebraska?
November 25th, 2012 at 10:57 PM ^
November 26th, 2012 at 10:53 AM ^
A LOT since the beginning of the season.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:07 PM ^
November 25th, 2012 at 10:09 PM ^
(Michael Buffer voice)
In this corner.....wearing blue trucks.....the B!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!GGGGGGGG 10!
Aaaaaaaaand in this corner.....wearing camo trunks.....all other conferences!
Let's have a clean fight and a great 2012 bowl season.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:14 PM ^
Actually, based on the official CapitalOneBowl twitter account (yes that exists, see here), I saw earlier that they could still take M even if Wisconsin beats Nebraska, mostly due to the fact that they would prefer not to take the same team two years in a row. So... don't go acting like you're the authority here
November 25th, 2012 at 10:20 PM ^
I want Michigan to play the best possible team available and beat them.
November 25th, 2012 at 10:28 PM ^
November 25th, 2012 at 10:29 PM ^
November 26th, 2012 at 7:31 AM ^
November 25th, 2012 at 10:30 PM ^
So, it seems the bowl picture isn't so simple after all.
November 25th, 2012 at 11:01 PM ^
Georgia, Florida, South Carolina or LSU.
November 25th, 2012 at 11:51 PM ^
Nobody will give us a chance against any of those teams, but I don't think they're as horrible matchups as they look right now. If we win, it looks great for us and will help the B1G not look like total shit. If we lose, it's what everyone expected.
November 26th, 2012 at 1:19 AM ^
is most of those SEC teams have really good dlines. Considering how much UM has struggled against the better dlines it'd probably be a long day for UM's offense. Defensively, I think UM would do okay.
November 26th, 2012 at 1:17 AM ^
They're just about guaranteed a BCS berth (Sugar). If you're ranked #3 in the BCS rankings and do not win your conference, you're guaranteed a BCS berth. Florida is #4 and I'd assume the loser of Bama/Georgia will fall behind Florida after next weekend.
November 26th, 2012 at 7:27 AM ^
November 26th, 2012 at 8:43 AM ^
I don't get the whole conference pride thing. I always root against the other B1G teams in bowls. Why should I want them to win when most of them would never want Michigan to win?
Screw them. Michigan is the only team I cheer for.
November 26th, 2012 at 8:58 AM ^
I get what you’re saying, but conference pride has much more to do with how Michigan is viewed than wanting the other Big Ten teams to win.
Strong Conference = Strong ranking for top teams = National respect
November 26th, 2012 at 9:39 AM ^
Strong Conference = Strong ranking for top teams = National respect
(equation continued below)
= more viewers for TV games = more interest from recruits
November 26th, 2012 at 10:16 AM ^
We need the B1G to show well in bowl games, so high-caliber recruits won't look at Michigan like we're just a big dog in a MAC-level conference compared to the ESS-EEE-SEE.
And this year, it's not even that distasteful -- no need to (grudgingly) pull for Sparty or OSU in a bowl. I can root for the Purdues and Northwestern's of the world with no problem.