dearbornpeds

September 10th, 2012 at 12:06 PM ^

     it bothers me to write this but sparty is becoming a quality program, not merely a short term success.  they appear to have quality coaches ( d-bags notwithstanding) who are coaching up lesser regarded recruits.  they have redshirted virtually their entire freshmen class for two consecutive years and their players are stepping up when it's their turn.  furthermore with the ongoing implosion at psu, pennsylvania athletes are more likely to look at east lansing.  their very favorable schedule over the next few years just adds to this.

Joined: 11/07/2009

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ChicagoB1GRed

September 10th, 2012 at 1:35 PM ^

and beat us soundly in AA………but  "back to the big 2 little ten10"  and "Nebraska on a level with Iowa and Illinois" after you have  one excellent season and recruiting class? Guys, we're  only midway thru the preseason,  a 1-1 start,  and  one B1G season under our belts with a new conference member, divisional play, PSU sanctioned, and a conference title game.

In the last 4 years (during our--ahem--rebuilding years since Pelini took over), Nebraska has a 70% WP. Historically 70%+ is the standard for us, Michigan, and OSU. Everybody else in the B1G has historically been in the low 50% or less range, with only Wisconsin and to some extent MSU recently approaching 70% WP. Remains to be seen if Wisconsin can sustain their ten years at 70%. MSU is barely at 70% their last three years. Haven't mentioned PSU for obvious reasons.

Now, it could be that Michigan will beat Nebraska by 28+ every year and routinely share the B1G title with OSU forever.

But I think it's much more likely you'll see all three of the perennial 70% teams mostly in the hunt with a good dose of the others winning out due to divisional play and short runs of success. If either Wisconsin or MSU ever permanently become 70% programs, there could be a 3 to 5 team battle for the B1G almost every year.

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EGD

September 10th, 2012 at 1:53 PM ^

What you have to find disconcerting about Nebraska's long-term prospects is that their recruiting has seemed to lag significantly behind UM and SUNY-Columbus, and until recently, Penn State as well.  Perhaps the move from the Big XII has lessened Nebraska's pull with Texas kids, maybe it's something else--whatever it is, Nebraska is not going to be a consistently elite team in the B1G unless they can recruit in the upper echelons of the league. 

OTOH, watching what AFA was able to do to Michigan on Saturday leads me to think that maybe if Nebraska can't recruit with Michigan and TSIO, then perhaps they should consider going back to the old I-form option. 

I think the downfall of Penn State will help a team like Michigan State sustain their success a bit longer than they otherwise would have.  But I think they will eventually descend back into sustained mediocrity, now that Hoke is back to keeping almost all the best in-state recruits blue.

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mgowill

September 10th, 2012 at 2:23 PM ^

You're looking at the small picture though.  If you look at the last five years of recruiting using Rivals average rankings you see the following -

 

  ALA NEB U-M
2009 3.81 3.25 3.59
2010 3.62 3.24 3.19
2011 3.91 3.53 3.25
2012 3.77 3.35 3.56
2013 3.68 3.14 3.61
TOTAL 18.79 16.51 17.2
AVE 3.758 3.302 3.44

While 2013 would agree with your assessment, that recruiting cycle isn't over yet making it invalid to use as an argument.

Joined: 08/31/2011

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M-Wolverine

September 10th, 2012 at 3:08 PM ^

Nebraska is on a 3 year downward trend, Michigan on a equally long up one.   And Nebraska's high would be the 4th best for Michigan in some of their worst years. 

And you didn't include OSU in that list -

2013 3.63

2012 3.72

2011 3.43

2010 3.32

2009 3.76

Average 3.57

 

The point is Michigan looks to be headed back toward recruiting near that level (check back further in recruiting for even more disparity).  And if Michigan doesn't continue to recruit at that level they could be looking at another 7 vs. OSU.  Because Ohio's level isn't going down. Then we'll have a Big 1 and the little 11....which has kinda been the last decade.  Michigan is at least showing a trend to be competitive with the Buckeyes on the recruiting trail. Nebraska hasn't, and they'll need to consistently do so to make it a Big 3.

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mgowill

September 10th, 2012 at 4:42 PM ^

I think that's a fair counterpoint that Nebraska fans would probably agree with.  While coaching/player development can make up for some deficiencies in recruiting, they don't overcome well coached superior talent all that often.

EDIT:  More data proves your point.

 

 

  U-M OSU NEB WISC MSU ILL IOWA
2003 3.82 3.38 3.05 2.82 2.63 2.77 2.81
2004 3.59 3.25 2.55 2.48 2.94 2.29 2.48
2005 3.48 3.50 3.33 2.74 2.75 2.57 3.22
2006 3.63 3.60 3.27 2.70 2.54 2.89 2.71
2007 3.40 3.80 3.33 3.06 2.70 3.00 2.95
2008 3.67 3.85 2.96 2.83 2.71 3.00 2.54
2009 3.59 3.76 3.25 3.00 3.30 2.78 2.47
2010 3.19 3.32 3.24 2.88 3.05 2.62 3.00
2011 3.25 3.43 3.53 3.05 3.00 2.85 3.00
2012 3.56 3.72 3.35 3.08 3.11 2.74 2.96
TOTAL 35.18 35.61 31.86 28.64 28.73 27.51 28.14
AVE 3.52 3.56 3.19 2.86 2.87 2.75 2.81

 

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EGD

September 10th, 2012 at 5:47 PM ^

Here is a chart comparing the Rivals overall team recruiting class rankings of Mich., SUNY-Columbus, and Nebraska since 2007.   I realize Nebraska has traditionally done a ton with walk-ons, however, which obviously wouldn't be reflected in recruiting rankings.

Year

UM

OSU

Neb

2013*

2

9

30

2012

7

4

25

2011

21

11

15

2010

20

25

22

2009

8

3

28

2008

10

4

30

2007

12

15

13

 

Joined: 09/16/2009

MGoPoints: 35199

mgowill

September 10th, 2012 at 7:38 PM ^

The problem with using recruiting rankings is that it neglects to show the quality of players being recruited.

Take 2004 for example.  Looking at the rankings you would see that Michigan State was #15 and Michigan was #14.  However, when we look a little deeper we see the following -

 

  TOTAL 5* 4* 3* AVE RANK
U-M 22 1 12 8 3.59
MSU 31 0 6 17 2.94

You can see how class size can skew this number easily.

Joined: 08/31/2011

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M-Wolverine

September 10th, 2012 at 11:13 PM ^

But I was impressed with your original acknowledgement. But I've NEVER seen the likes of your edit before, where someone goes and gets the data to give another point credit. I just thought that was pretty amazing.

Joined: 10/04/2009

MGoPoints: 42190

ChicagoB1GRed

September 10th, 2012 at 2:31 PM ^

as far as long-term competitiveness in the B1G. It's certainly a fair question.

All I can say is that Nebraska has never recruited at the elite level, even in our championship seasons.

We don't have the built in recruiting base of a OSU, Michigan, or Texas. We've always had to recruit nationally. Our Texas recruiting has dropped off, but I doubt that it'll disappear. Even though we don't play there anymore, the extra BTN exposure offsets that a bit. And we've greatly stepped up our recruiting in B1G territory. You guys and OSU will get the 5 star guys, we'll get our share of 3-4 star guys. Same thing happened in the XII vs TX and OK.

BTW, one reason I post on this board, besides it being fun to present a contrarian view and the quality and diversity of the posters, is that most of the time I'm treated very courteously and with respect as a rival fan.  I almost didn't post my previous comment thinking I'd get blasted. Instead I get upvoted. Can't believe I have 800 points after 2 seasons. It is very much appreciated.

Joined: 06/10/2010

MGoPoints: 1207

mgowill

September 10th, 2012 at 2:07 PM ^

Great points.  I went back and looked at the two programs since 1995.  Nebraska had a 160-59 record (0.730594).  Michigan had a 148-64 record (0.698113).

While it is true during Rich Rod's tenure we had a 3-9, 5-7, and 7-5 season (15-21 over 3 years) - Nebraska had a 7-7, 5-6, and 5-7 season (17-20 over those 3 years) a few years prior to Michigan's crappy streak (albeit not in a row like Michigan's).

I think some of the "puffiness" you get from folks here comes from the fact that Michigan's current recruiting gets mixed into the current assessment of where Michigan actually is.  Michigan won't actually see the impact of Hoke's recruiting for another couple years.  Michigan is in about the same place as Nebraska.  We have depth problems.  Depth was never a problem for the Nebraska's and Michigan's of the world, but a few crappy seasons and a couple coaching changes can make for a shaky roster.  The depth issue is really transparent when you have a few injuries.  For teams that are rebuilding, this can be a death knell.  It will be interesting to see how the Wisconsin's and Michigan State's perform in years to come, we will see if they are here to stay.  

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TrppWlbrnID

September 10th, 2012 at 9:43 AM ^

Bielema tantrum about a non conference road game. It would be nice for wisc to blame their troubles on crist leaving, but I have seen pitt play and it is not so good. And what is an offensive quality control coach and why did he keep his job?

Joined: 10/29/2009

MGoPoints: 9847

FreddieMercuryHayes

September 10th, 2012 at 9:47 AM ^

I'm really surprised by the complete lack of running game.  It's not like they're trotting out a bunch of freshman or anything.  They have experienced O-linemen that have gone their entire careers through the patented Wiscsonsin O-linemen Development Program.  How can one offseason and an experienced O-line coach just destory that.  It's mind bottling.

Joined: 12/29/2010

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Needs

September 10th, 2012 at 10:30 AM ^

And it's a guy who's been coaching the o-line for 14 years in the SEC, replacing him with a graduate assistant who's in his first year coaching the offensive line? That's completely insane. Wisconsin could melt down big time this year. They're not good enough on defense to win if they're o-line isn't grinding people to dust.

Purdue may now be the favorite to reach the championship game in the Woody division. 

Joined: 08/05/2008

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Perkis-Size Me

September 10th, 2012 at 10:53 AM ^

I actually think they can now, and they have a very legitimate shot. Yes, I know its Notre Dame, but Purdue gave Notre Dame all it could handle. They are, arguably, the most stable team in the Leaders division. Yeah there's OSU, but they're still breaking in new systems, and I'm not sold on them yet. They've beaten up on nobodys.

Joined: 11/30/2011

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maizenbluenc

September 10th, 2012 at 9:57 AM ^

ensuing counch fires and ski mask activity would be entertaining to watch, but I would really rather not look like the SEC (Bama, LSU, and everyone else).

[Edit: this goes with the tire fire series above]

Joined: 07/21/2009

MGoPoints: 10630

EGD

September 10th, 2012 at 9:46 AM ^

I remember back in 2003 when Michigan's special teams coach at the time fooled around with a rugby-style punt against Oregon.  It was a total disaster, and was a big factor in losing that game.  Shortly thereafter we learned that our special teams coach would not be with the team for the rest of the season due to "personal reasons."  Say what you want about Carr's abilities as a football coach, but the man had class--he knew how to fire somebody without wrecking the guy's future career, without scapegoating that person in the media, etc.

I've always found Bielema to be routinely a jerk, even in situations where it's not necessary or helpful for him to act that way.  So this doesn't surprise me.  

Joined: 09/16/2009

MGoPoints: 35199

Bez

September 10th, 2012 at 11:12 AM ^

I'm blanking on the guys name but I remember that as well. He had never coached or played football before if I remember correctly. I was kind of amazed he had worked his way into a position like that.

Joined: 12/31/2010

MGoPoints: 450

Ziff72

September 10th, 2012 at 9:47 AM ^

Going to be a very unpleasant week for the Wisc O-Line.   Not sure who or when they are playing but I may be wagering a few bucks on Wisky to rebound.    I think Alvarez may be on the field this week coaching the Oline.

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